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Ben Coley's PLAYERS Championship golf betting tips: Best bets for the first round at Sawgrass
Charley Hoffman has a history of fast starts in big events and he's taken to produce another when The PLAYERS begins on Thursday.
Golf betting tips: The PLAYERS Championship
1pt e.w. Sergio Garcia to lead after R1 at 80/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Russell Henley to lead after R1 at 80/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Charley Hoffman to lead after R1 at 150/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
2pts Tony Finau to win his first-round three-ball at 8/5 (bet365)
2pts Denny McCarthy to win his first-round three-ball at 11/8 (Betfair, BetVictor)
An early tee-time has on the face of it been beneficial since The PLAYERS Championship returned to its March slot, with Hideki Matsuyama's scintillating 63 and then Sergio Garcia's 65 a year later both coming from the morning wave. That said, there's been an even split among the places as there was between the co-leaders in 2019, and if anything Thursday's forecast suggests a modest breeze will die down as the afternoon develops.
This is a wide-open market as you'd expect and with no discernible bias it's one many will seek to avoid, but I'm happy to have a few small plays to cover all bases in terms of the tee-sheet, starting with CHARLEY HOFFMAN at 0656 GMT local time.
Hoffman is a bit of a first-round cliche, mainly due to his exploits at Augusta, but he does look a big price here because the circumstances are similar. In a nutshell, his hot starts have come in bursts – his 2017 Masters lead came soon after he'd sat third in the Arnold Palmer, and he'd shot opening rounds of 65, 67 and 69 prior to a field-best 64 in the Sanderson Farms subsequently.
Go back further and his lead in the 2016 Houston Open came after he'd been fourth and fifth after the first round of his previous two starts, and in 2015 he led twice in eight starts, hitting the top 10 on three other occasions. Again, he'd dropped a hint: Hoffman was eighth after round one of a WGC two starts before he was first in Texas, and a month later he topped the leaderboard right here at Sawgrass.
To the present day, then, and he's started his last two tournaments with 67s to lie sixth before fading, which in turn means his form is hidden and he's very much out of the spotlight. His last round at Sawgrass was a five-under 67 in the final round last year and while he'll probably need to go lower to win this, that's well within his compass.
Little over half an hour later, SERGIO GARCIA (0729) heads to the tee and having led here in 2021 and 2008, and sat inside the top 15 in 2004, 2005, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2018 and 2019, he's hard to resist at 66/1 and bigger.
Garcia simply adores Sawgrass, he's far more effective in this part of the US than out on the west coast, and he boasts a very good first-round record in general. Garcia led twice last year, in Texas and Florida, and added top-fives in four more starts, before beginning 2022 with a round of 67 at another course he enjoys out in Dubai.
Into the afternoon and RUSSELL HENLEY (1212), first-round leader in the US Open last summer and habitually in the mix early on, looks the best option of those out towards the start of the second wave.
Henley's Sawgrass record doesn't look great on paper but he was second after a round of 65 in 2015 and ended that tournament with a 66, his record on other Pete Dye courses is strong, and he arrives at the absolute peak of his powers.
Finally, Danny Lee is one I looked at to steal a place at 500/1 but this looks a more realistic target and he's carded plenty of low rounds this season, with a 64 in Mexico plus 65s at Riviera, PGA West and in Bermuda.
Consistency isn't his strong suit and piecing four rounds together isn't likely, but he has some decent form here courtesy of seventh place in 2018, where he opened 68-66, and an opening 67 in 2016 saw him close to the places, too.
With good form at River Highlands and generally at his best on traditional, tree-lined courses like the one at which he won the Greenbrier, this one-time teen prodigy could cause a massive upset if he can roll in a putt or two. If you're happy playing four, he's out late and may provide some evening drama.
Finau the pick of Thursday's three-balls
For a three-ball bet, TONY FINAU (1218) appeals at 6/4 and is considered the pick of the morning.
Finau isn't what you'd call an ideal course fit and that's reflected in a string of modest results, but closer inspection reveals he's improving as he gains experience. Nine of his last 10 rounds here have been par or better, three of the last six sub-70, and he hit his irons really well when last we saw him.
Crucially, his playing partners look there to be shot at. Webb Simpson hasn't played since the second week of January and though he's a former winner here, the rest of his Sawgrass profile is pretty modest. It's easy to think he's returning at an ideal course but I'm not sure that's actually the case, and it's going to be hard to compete in a field like this following two months away.
Patrick Reed meanwhile has a more robust if less spectacular course record, but his performances lately have been extremely poor. He appears to have given up distance and accuracy from the tee, his approaches have been poor all year, and his short-game has also been well below the standards we've come to expect.
Later on, DENNY MCCARTHY (1840) is fancied to get the better of Charl Schwartzel and Tyler McCumber.
McCarthy rarely impresses with his ball-striking but is an elite putter who loves bermuda greens and has made both cuts here, starting with rounds of 69 on both visits. He's missed just two cuts this season, one in four-under and the other in level-par, so there's a consistent, reliable look to his form.
That's in stark contrast to Schwartzel, who seems to have lost the plot off the tee. He hit just one in four fairways at Riviera, was below 40 per cent last week, is missing a lot of greens as a result, and eight of his last nine rounds have been 73 or higher.
He's a former runner-up here but more recently has struggled quite badly and his game, particularly from tee-to-green, appears to be in a real mess.
McCumber meanwhile has lost strokes off the tee in every start this year, which is alarming given he hits it a long way. His tee-to-green stats are similarly ugly and while he's made the odd promising start, and was 22nd here last year, it'll be a surprise if he's competitive.
Posted at 1320 GMT on 08/03/22
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