Ben Coley's Open Championship antepost betting preview and tips

Antepost golf betting tips: The Open Championship

2pts e.w. Jordan Spieth at 66/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

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The story of the 2019 Open Championship will stand the test of time. It began with Darren Clarke, the veteran Northern Irishman, briefly sitting atop the leaderboard on one of those quintessential Open mornings. The calm before the storm.

Then came Rory McIlroy and that swing off the first tee, which made an innocuous out-of-bounds fence suddenly anything but. From there came the Friday rally, glorious failure of a uniquely McIlroy kind. The tears, the realisation of just how much all this really did matter, after weeks spent pretending it was just another week in the life of an extraordinary golfer.

Nestled between the two on that Thursday morning tee-sheet was the name Shane Lowry and come Sunday, roared on by his younger friend, it was Lowry who brought the house down. It felt as if the entire island walked with him, through the rain, to something so magical that it probably still feels like a dream to Lowry and his friends and family. It certainly does to some of us who were there that week.

When we return in July, all eyes will be on McIlroy, whether he's won a major before then or is still waiting. Hopefully the R&A give him a nice early tee-time and he doesn't have to wait to begin his quest for the ultimate redemption. Hopefully, he can at least prolong the promise of that unimaginably perfect scenario actually unfolding, and keep us all dreaming just as we did for someone else in 2019.

Forgive me for getting lost among it all but as for the business of finding a spot of value, the first thing to underline is that this really is different. Five years ago, six of the top 10 players were from the UK and Ireland. At Troon last summer it might only have been four of 12, but among them veterans Lowry and Justin Rose could each have won, Daniel Brown threatened to for a while, and Matthew Jordan made it successive Open top-10s.

With the weather almost certain to play its part, and the field for this final major of the year far from finalised, you have to be very sure you're on the right side of things before striking a bet this far out. For the most part, the market reflects the fact that some players from the British and Irish team are more likely to win an Open than they are any of the other majors and only a handful of players make any kind of appeal.

Perhaps the answer is Jon Rahm, with three top-sevens in his last four Opens and the clear potential to go off shorter than 16/1 days after a LIV Golf event in Spain. Then again, warming up at Valderrama won't exactly help him and it would require something special in one of the three prior majors for Rahm to significantly close the gap on favourite Scottie Scheffler.

The answer I think is to chance JORDAN SPIETH at 50/1 and bigger, knowing that for all the downside, there's massive potential upside at these prices.

• CLICK HERE to back Spieth with Sky Bet

Spieth has just undergone surgery to repair a minor but persistent wrist issue which has undoubtedly harmed him throughout the past year or two. He says it's gone well and is all set to go in January, and having driven the ball just about as well as he ever has at times in 2024, I'm interested to see whether this operation might help him return to previous standards with his approaches, which unlike tee shots involve going through the turf.

It seems plausible that the wrist caused problems in this department more than any other and as a supreme iron player at his best, if Spieth does have other aspects of his game nicely set then the restoration of a former strength gives us scope for significant improvement.

That really is all I need, because his Open record is fantastic. Spieth has made 11 appearances, making 11 cuts, and only once close to missing it. On seven occasions he's entered the weekend in the mix and nine times in 11 he's been inside the top 25 with a round to go. There are very few players of this generation who get links golf in the same way that he does and that's been clear since he first played an Open in 2014, possibly even since he played the Junior Open and finished runner-up way back in 2008.

The 2017 champion is of course no longer the force he was but I think we're too quick to dismiss the idea that he might yet return to something close to his very best. And if he is to win another major, most likely are this and the Masters. He's 33/1 for the latter, but by backing him for the Open we've up to twice the price, more time for any further recovery he may need, and the knowledge that many of his Augusta rivals will be much less comfortable in Northern Ireland.

Despite being far from the player he was two years earlier, Spieth finished 20th here in 2019, entering the final round in eighth place. If his comeback in 2025 really has gathered pace come July, people might be falling over themselves to take half the odds currently on offer.

At bigger prices, Irish Open champion Rasmus Hojgaard keeps on improving and could look a steal come the summer while the case laid out for Rickie Fowler in the Masters also applies here. I could see Austin Eckroat confirming himself a much better player than his odds and he's twice a winner in the wind now, while Matt Wallace made the cut in 2019 and is in excellent shape as he pushes for a Ryder Cup spot.

But it's December as I type and, with many months to go until the Open, the one major which still needs guesswork on the Monday of tournament week, it should pay to take our time. Perhaps Spieth will do the same and set up a golden summer.

Posted at 1535 GMT on 23/12/24

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