Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Wyndham Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Wyndham Championship

1.5pts e.w. Adam Hadwin at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Taylor Moore at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Alex Smalley at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Adam Svensson at 70/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)

1pt e.w. Alex Noren at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. Doc Redman at 200/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

The end of the PGA Tour (regular) season is nigh but after years of being schooled, poorly I might add, on the FedEx Cup bubble and so on, us diehards have got to quickly get to grips with the new reality – for however long it lasts.

Previously, the Wyndham Championship was about two things: winning the Wyndham Championship for those with that opportunity, and ensuring that you crack the top 125 in FedEx Cup points regardless, thereby qualifying for the Playoffs and keeping hold of your full playing rights for the following season.

Never mind the fact that nobody on this good earth could tell you how many points are awarded for a three-way share of 12th without looking, it was a system which we came to understand in a broader sense, one that provided colour and finality. Get it done and you'll be back in September. Fail and you're off to Korn Ferry Tour Finals.

Now it's out of the window. The top 125 is irrelevant, as far as I can tell, which is a shame as we've a local with previous currently occupying 126th place in the standings. Prior to this year, Chesson Hadley would've been the story of the week and indeed has been in the past. Instead, that story will focus on the likes of Shane Lowry, Adam Scott, and Justin Thomas.

For Lowry, I'm not sure there's much at risk beyond his Playoffs place. It would be an act of self-sabotage not to include him in the Ryder Cup team and if he has to take a few weeks off ahead of a busy September and October, well so be it. For Scott things are a little more serious as he's further down the world rankings, but he ought to be just fine. For Thomas, there is a lot more at stake.

Should Thomas fail to reach the Playoffs, he'd surely miss out on a Ryder Cup place – unless, that is, he chose to go to Europe in a last ditch survival bid. Assistant captain Fred Couples strongly hinted last week that Thomas cannot get away with much more bad golf and while there was plenty of good at the 3M Open, another missed cut left him in a position of great peril.

Something like a top-15 finish ought to secure a Playoffs spot and keep his hopes alive for at least another week, as one of the USA's star performers in Paris looks to ensure he's still among the options for Rome. Last year's US PGA champion comes back to the Wyndham for the first time in many years under a heck of a lot of pressure.

How he performs will be fascinating, and without sounding like a broken record there's got to be some consideration at 33/1. The 18/1 favourite, Sungjae Im, was behind Thomas last week. Ludvig Aberg played poorly. Si Woo Kim shot 80 in the second round of the Open, where Lowry missed the cut. Thomas might be dominating the headlines, but he's not alone in being both out of sorts and near the head of this market.

I'd go as far as to say I think he'll reach the FedEx St Jude Championship at Southwind, an event he's won before. But I don't quite see the need to back him to achieve more than that, especially as he might glance over his shoulder if he does work his way through to the weekend. If 15th or so will do, that might just be what he's playing for.

Lowry has been through this at the Wyndham, finishing 23rd in 2020 to climb from 131st to 122nd, and just missing out in 2017, by a single shot or a handful of points depending on your preferred metric. Lowry finished seventh back then, demonstrating that this course suits as you'd think it would, and of this high-profile trio he made most appeal at 25/1, not far off his Open Championship price.

While all that is going on in the background, I'm going to focus on those at bigger prices as I can't see great value at the front of the betting beyond Lowry who, let's face it, has let us down a few times this year. Im could well bounce back and loves it here but this is stronger than last week and he was poor. Russell Henley is no less solid, but there's a good chance we can get all of the favourites beaten.

First up is ADAM HADWIN, another who missed the cut in Minnesota.

• CLICK HERE to back Hadwin with Sky Bet

Hadwin did so by a single shot and it looked to me like one of those weeks that tells us nothing about the state of his game. He made three sixes on par-fives across the two days, admitting to a silly decision for one of them, and scored really poorly throughout having hit 15/18 greens in each round.

That he also had the weekend off at the John Deere Classic might be off-putting to some but remember that came days after a play-off defeat in Detroit. Ultimately he's shot under-par in three of his last four rounds and there just isn't anything to worry about as far as I can see.

Hadwin's 10th place here in 2021, his last start at the Wyndham, also came after a missed cut and it reveals much about the case for him. The Canadian ranked seventh off the tee that week because nobody hit more fairways (nor did anybody hit more greens), and that equates to turning his weakest club into a real strength.

Sedgefield Country Club, a short, Donald Ross classic, allows for that to happen. This is a place where accuracy trumps power and where players who hit fairways are at a big advantage. Look at this year's driving accuracy stats and you'll find four Wyndham champions among the top 25, plus a couple of others you might count as course specialists.

Last year's winner, Tom Kim, is currently ranked seventh, and the two players he left behind during that breathtaking final round both ranked inside the top 30 at the time. Shock 2020 winner Jim Herman, who still rates highly for fairways, was 10th on Tour during that season. Kevin Kisner, Webb Simpson, Henrik Stenson and Ryan Moore are other winners at the course who were among the most accurate drivers around.

So, back to Hadwin. He's 28th in driving accuracy and remains among the top 20 percent on Tour for approach play and putting. Put simply, he isn't quite long enough to gain strokes off the tee on a regular basis, but he did drive it well last week and if he drives it well again here, he'll have a real chance if his main strengths fire.

The final point to make concerns the courses which correlate best with Sedgefield. First is Sawgrass, which has thrown up winners like Stenson and Simpson, Si Woo Kim, Sergio Garcia and Davis Love, and where Kisner lost a play-off. Scott should've won this the year Kisner did and he's another former PLAYERS champion.

Next is Detroit, home now of the Rocket Mortgage Classic, also designed by Ross. Three of the last four Wyndham champions had played well there just weeks earlier, and while it's more vulnerable to powerful driving, there are definite similarities. It should prove a good pointer though we have to acknowledge that Detroit is still relatively new to the schedule.

Hadwin lost a play-off there to Rickie Fowler just a few weeks ago and his Sawgrass record is excellent (29-9-13 the last three). Throw in a victory at Copperhead, the Florida course some say has a Carolinas feel to it, and this is undoubtedly a logical place for his second PGA Tour title to arrive. Perhaps it'll happen on Sunday.

Moore of the same?

Another who helps tie these courses together is TAYLOR MOORE, who followed Hadwin's lead in capturing the Valspar Championship at Copperhead earlier this year.

• CLICK HERE to back Moore with Sky Bet

Moore's rookie season on the PGA Tour saw him produce his best two finishes at Detroit and Sedgefield, finishing sixth in the former and then fifth on his debut in this event, and like Hadwin a year earlier he was exceptional off the tee.

Moore isn't quite so accurate, but he's straight enough and a fine iron player when at his best, one who can also be exceptional on the greens. His putter cost him a crack at Tom Kim in truth but played a key part in his Valspar win and did all the heavy lifting when he returned to Detroit to finish fourth last month.

Having also been a solid 35th at Sawgrass, plus 11th at Harbour Town, Moore is building a profile which suggests these tree-lined courses bring out his best, and I certainly have no issues ignoring a missed cut on his Open Championship debut last time out, one that came by a single shot.

Before that he joined Hadwin in having a weekend off at the John Deere, but his long-game was really good. Unfortunately, his putter wasn't anything like as effective as it had been a week earlier and resulted in what again was a narrow missed cut.

Moore doesn't look to be far from the sort of form that preceded his spring breakthrough and he can go well here once more, at a course where we often see the same names in the mix year after year.

Big chance for Smalley

Cam Davis of course made some appeal after taking a big step towards sealing his Playoffs berth last week, but while he's played well on both Wyndham starts, I'm not sure it's the best course for him really. Yes, he has Detroit and Sawgrass form, but it's his putter that has helped him to stick close to the leaders in this event.

More appealing at slightly bigger odds is ALEX SMALLEY, a Sedgefield member with a game to match his familiarity with the course.

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Smalley was runner-up in the John Deere Classic on his last US start, leading the field with his approaches. Prior to that he'd ranked third in the same category but struggled with his short-game in the Rocket Mortgage Classic, which is the only reason he didn't make it a hat-trick of top-10s having also been ninth in the Travelers.

This is high-class form which only came to an end when he teed it up in Scotland, worlds away from this style of golf and not something that would worry me in the slightest. His success was build on quality ball-striking, too, and had he lit up the greens he might well have become a PGA Tour winner at some stage.

Perhaps it seems a little too cute for it to happen here, but remember Carl Pettersson was a Sedgefield member when he won this title, and Simpson was a young maiden playing close to his home town. Poston and Love also hail from North Carolina, Kisner from South Carolina, so in 15 visits to Sedgefield we've had five winners with strong local connections.

Smalley said in 2021 that he'd played the course around 60-75 times, and he put that experience to use to finish 29th and qualify for Korn Ferry Tour Finals. From there he earned his card and returned home to finish 13th last year, while back in May he returned to form in the Wells Fargo, the other PGA Tour event held in North Carolina, where he grew up.

With his game clearly in better shape now than at any point previously, I'm not surprised he's been popular since betting opened. There's still plenty of juice in the price to my eye, particularly with such doubts surrounding those at the very front of the market, and he can be the latest local to get in the mix.

Doug Ghim is striping it at the moment and came into my thinking based on that fact, plus a good effort here five years ago. He's got work to do in order to reach the Playoffs but my main doubt concerns whether he can do enough on the greens, an area in which he's improved but still looks unlikely to string together four rounds in what's always a low-scoring event.

Instead, I'll chance ADAM SVENSSON getting back to his best in that department, which would make him a major threat.

• CLICK HERE to back Svensson with Sky Bet

Svensson shot a second-round 61 on his debut here in 2019 so we know he can score at the course, and his subsequent breakthrough came in another event that correlates well. Love, Simpson and Kisner are among the names you'd associate with the RSM Classic, where Smalley and Moore also boast strong form.

Like his compatriot selected earlier on in this preview, Svensson has that flourish of Sawgrass form having finished 13th on his debut there in the spring, leading at halfway. In the mix also at the Honda and the Sony Open, he's another relatively short, accurate driver who thrives when presented with more technical courses that can't be overpowered.

As for the state of his game, my colleague Niall Lyons pointed out incremental improvement with his approaches in last week's episode of The Tips, and Svensson found more when 37th in the 3M Open last week, following on from 21st in the John Deere Classic and 40th in Detroit.

Ranking 25th in strokes-gained off-the-tee there and 13th in strokes-gained approach, that was as strong a ball-striking display as he's produced since April and it provides the scope for a big jolt of putting improvement to get him in the mix. Perhaps that'll come for the switch to bermuda greens, which this Florida resident should embrace.

His namesake ALEX NOREN is another for whom conditions won't be an excuse and I think the Swede is playing really well, having been ninth in Detroit, missed the cut in Scotland, bounced back with 23rd in the Open, then took 13th last week.

• CLICK HERE to back Noren with Sky Bet

That's a strong form line for another who needs a big week to make the Playoffs, which in turn would keep him in the Ryder Cup conversation. There's no doubt in my mind he'd be a big part of that debate if able to win or threaten to win something in the coming weeks and this event looks a better opportunity than odds of 80/1 suggest.

Noren might've been down the field here in 2019, but he putted poorly that week. Ranking 26th in fairways and 23rd in greens goes down as encouraging enough to me and if he can keep it in play off the tee, always more likely on a shorter course than a longer one, then his quality approaches and killer short-game could do a lot of damage.

Noren's correlating form includes fourth and ninth on his last two starts in Detroit plus 10th on his PLAYERS debut, one of three very good displays at Sawgrass. The worry has to be that he'll hit it in the trees once too often but that's a risk I don't mind taking as he looks to stage a late bid to make those Playoffs.

At 63rd in the world, Noren is one big week away from taking care of a lot in terms of his 2024 schedule but I suspect his ambitions are a good deal more immediate. Don't be surprised if he converts good golf into contending somewhere in the coming weeks, be that here or back in Europe.

Redman the best of the rags

It's not uncommon to see a rank outsider make a run at this and among the tempting options were Paul Haley and Max McGreevy. Both played well last week and in Haley's case, he's placed at Colonial back in May and has remained accurate off the tee all year. He played well here during a miserable rookie season back in 2013, too.

McGreevy was fifth to keep hold of his card a year ago and is definitely playing better than his form figures suggest, so these are among the more appealing options along with Carson Young if you're happy to accept the risks attached to players who need to win if they're to extend their seasons beyond this week.

More realistic propositions include straight-driving Aaron Rai while I did consider Harris English, a regular contender here down the years and a new dad who has seen players he knows very well win the Open and then the 3M Open over the last fortnight. He likes it at Sedgefield and has a touch of class.

My idea of a genuine runner at a massive price however is DOC REDMAN, another local who knows this course inside out.

• CLICK HERE to back Redman with Sky Bet

That Sedgefield knowledge helped Redman to finish third in 2020 and who knows what might have happened had crowds been allowed in to roar him on that week, one in which he ranked first in strokes-gained tee-to-green.

Look through Redman's career at this level and you'll see that performance ranks among his best along with second in Detroit, while his ability to perform close to home was also in evidence at the Palmetto Championship in neighbouring South Carolina.

Other less spectacular but still encouraging displays have come at Sawgrass, Harbour Town and Quail Hollow while he's also been 16th at Copperhead and, just three starts back, was ninth in the Barbasol. Conditions here really hold no fears for this former US Amateur champion who was born just an hour down the road and has been playing better lately.

Last week's T30 at the 3M Open was notable for the fact he'd gone MC-MC-MC there previously, and a final-round 65 was a lovely way to prepare for a return home. Redman's putter, the club we have to be most worried about, well and truly came to life on Sunday and at the prices on offer I don't mind speculating that he can run with it.

Posted at 1800 BST on 31/07/23

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