Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Valspar Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Valspar Championship

2pts e.w. Tom Kim at 33/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Keith Mitchell at 60/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Ryan Fox at 125/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Danny Walker at 125/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Steven Fisk at 225/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Jackson Suber at 250/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. Ricky Castillo at 500/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Although the PGA Tour has its faults, now feels a time to celebrate the things it does well. Last week’s PLAYERS Championship was a fantastic spectacle, following on from a dramatic finish at Bay Hill, and all in all the Florida swing has set us up nicely for the important months ahead.

It isn’t over yet, mind you, and another thing done well is the timing of the Valspar Championship. This is a bit different when it comes to the course and the overall intensity and it feels like a tournament for the purist, which is pretty much what you need at the end of a dizzying fortnight of high-stakes Signature Events.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is a cracker, famed (insofar as it can be famed) by its closing stretch, the ‘Snake Pit’. In places it resembles Harbour Town, but there are echoes of Sawgrass too – only without quite so many of the hyper-penal hazards you find over there at The PLAYERS.

Here, the difficulty comes from the fact that there are very few giveaway birdies, not even at the short opening par-five. There’s an equality which is unlike most courses, with all sets of holes (3s, 4s and 5s) about the same in terms of relative scoring, but there’s variety too in the way holes turn one way and then the other: in fact from the first onwards, the doglegs run right then left, right then left, right then left all the way to the turn.

Strong drivers have generally fared best, with Paul Casey, Sam Burns and Taylor Moore all fitting that description along with some who’ve been close, like Jason Kokrak and Keegan Bradley. Even surprise 2024 champion Peter Malnati drove it better than he usually does and the best driver that week, Cameron Young, ought to have beaten him.

That’s because driving is difficult, so whether you get on the front foot as Burns did or avoid big misses as Malnati did, ranking much higher in the strokes-gained off-the-tee charts than he usually is able to, getting it away is vital.

There is however an additional factor, perhaps the essential factor, to consider – the reason publication of this preview has been delayed to Tuesday night. Although it could of course change, right now the wind is forecast to blow hard on Thursday afternoon and Friday morning and if that comes to pass, one side of the draw could be at a sizeable disadvantage.

Justin Thomas would’ve been a strong fancy from the right side of it but along with Corey Conners, JT Poston, Taylor Moore and Viktor Hovland, he’s one of my shortlisted players who might just have been drawn out of it. Certainly, there’s enough in the forecast to avoid them all.

TOM KIM by contrast is out in the morning and gets the headline vote.

• CLICK HERE to back Kim with Sky Bet

Kim caught the eye at Sawgrass last week and I suspect he’ll like the look of Copperhead on what’s his first start here.

As Malnati demonstrated, it’s possible to be among the best drivers by not missing the centre of the fairway by very far and that’s something Kim could replicate given that he’s among the more accurate drivers around.

He was a bit disappointing at Bay Hill but his form figures there now read 34-52-MC, while at Sawgrass he actually produced his best effort yet having been 51st on debut and then withdrawn from last year’s edition when five-over through eight.

With one poor effort at the Cognizant also to his name he does have a bit to prove in this part of the US, but he has won in North Carolina, played well in Georgia, and on several occasions putted to a very high standard on greens similar to these.

That’s not been the case over the past fortnight but any improvement with that club and he could be a big threat having led the field in strokes-gained approach in rounds two, three and overall last week.

Kim’s approach play is key to any success he has and he’s produced sustained runs of a very high standard before. With Copperhead somewhat similar to the scene of his PGA Tour breakthrough, and to River Highlands where he lost a play-off to Scottie Scheffler, I want to chance him from that likeable AM-PM draw.

Ignoring any jokes about ‘global superstar’ Tom Kim, the biggest names from the early wave include Xander Schauffele and Tommy Fleetwood, the latter perhaps now set to start favourite ahead of Thomas.

Fleetwood had a great chance to win here two years ago and probably deserves to head the betting without looking like outstanding value even with the draw in mind, while any temptation to back Schauffele at what could look a gift of a price is tempered by his awful weekend performance.

It’s true that Sawgrass hasn’t often proved a reliable guide to the following week’s events, but that alone isn’t enough. It simply looks too early in Schauffele’s return from injury and his long-game was all at sea.

Mitchell worth another try

KEITH MITCHELL was the 54-hole leader when selected last year and while he produced an infuriating Sunday, looking beaten from the very first tee-shot, I’m just about ready to give him another chance.

• CLICK HERE to back Mitchell with Sky Bet

Undoubtedly an underachiever given the way he drives the ball, Mitchell is generally one I’m happy enough to overlook but this is his grade and this is the right place, as he’s from Tennessee and won his first and so far only PGA Tour title here in Florida.

He was 11th on his debut here, that way back in 2017 on his very first PGA Tour start while still a Korn Ferry Tour member, and like Conners I’m a bit surprised he’s not been a more frequent visitor. In fact, he’s only been back twice since, first suffering a putter set-up issue which saw him fall down the leaderboard, then doing so of his own making last year.

With his driving back on-song and his approach play solid at Sawgrass, Mitchell was on course to defy a bad draw and make the cut until three-putting the 13th, making sloppy bogeys from the fringe at 14 and 15 and then three-putting the 16th, too.

That club had been good in round one but was awful in round two and I expect it’ll play a significant role in his finishing position. No doubt, the enigmatic Mitchell isn’t one to trust, but I do think he has plenty in his favour and all the ability needed to go ahead and right a few wrongs.

The fact that his Honda win followed a run of poor putting and a pair of missed cuts offers some hope and he offered just as much encouragement at Sawgrass this year (narrow MC) as he did last (73rd), a season in which his best result came in Mississippi.

Mitchell hadn’t missed a cut this season until last week and at the very least I think he’ll bounce back and play well at one of his very favourite courses.

It’s striking how many of the chief players on paper have landed seemingly bad draws so that leaves me with a collection of outsiders, who I’d expected to be able to whittle down after seeing the tee sheet but who all seem to have landed nicely.

The one I have left out is Davis Riley, who is about the same price as when selected and placed in Puerto Rico a couple of weeks ago. The fact that we’re at Copperhead probably justifies that but his obvious course form doesn’t help as this is theoretically much tougher, although less so if half of the field can't win.

By contrast, RYAN FOX missed the cut due to one bad day at the office last year and I think that leaves him overpriced.

• CLICK HERE to back Fox with Sky Bet

The New Zealander, a proven DP World Tour winner including at Wentworth, which shares some similarities with this course, opened his debut Valspar bid with a round of 76 but showed he can score here with a Friday 69.

That second round saw him hit the ball really well at a time when his form had been very poor, and he later went on to contend behind Robert MacIntyre in Canada, again at an old-fashioned, tree-lined course.

Fox began this year with an excellent 10th behind Tyrrell Hatton in Dubai and while not so impressive since, his single worst round has been 72, he hit it well again when missing the cut on the number at PGA National, and last week’s 20th was very good.

Fox struck the ball really well at the weekend in particular, he warmed his putter with each passing day, and I’m prepared to give him a second chance to prove that Copperhead is a good fit even if I’m ever so slightly wary of his waywardness off the tee.

Certainly, there are players similarly ranked who are much shorter than he is and I felt he stood out on class grounds in this weak field ahead of fellow DP World Tour regular Matt Wallace, who admittedly has the course form but appeared to struggle again with his putter in Puerto Rico.

Walker to keep on strolling

No doubt DANNY WALKER could suffer a PLAYERS hangover but having feared his performance at Sawgrass would result in a silly-short price, I’m pleasantly surprised to be able to take 100/1 and bigger.

• CLICK HERE to back Walker with Sky Bet

Walker of course would’ve been much bigger but for that performance but the way he handled himself was deeply impressive, the outcome a life-changing tie for sixth which goes a long way to securing him his card for 2026.

There was nothing flukish about it, either. Walker drove the ball really well, as he has done for most of his rookie season to date; his approach play was good, his short-game was rock-solid, and a few putts dropping helped him to produce a career-best.

No doubt home comforts helped as he knew the Stadium Course well and that’s what makes him worth sticking with, as he hails from Florida and has played Copperhead a number of times, too.

His share of sixth was nonetheless surprising and impressive given a late phone call to tell him he was in the field as an alternate and would be playing with two major champions, Jordan Spieth and Wyndham Clark. Following a slow start from a bad draw, he clearly got to grips with it and kicked on impressively in round three.

That was alongside Shane Lowry, another major winner, and Walker referenced how being paired with Ludvig Aberg in the Farmers had helped to prepare him, so now dropping down a level he will surely arrive at the Valspar believing he’s good enough to win out here.

I’ve mentioned him a couple of times this season and had him on my shortlists in Mexico and Puerto Rico, so while he surprised us all last week, he does look like a player who has just kept on getting better and arrived on the PGA Tour ready to go.

Maybe he can keep it rolling and, out early, that’s a chance which is well worth taking while he has familiarity on his side.

RICKY CASTILLO has produced one or two flashes of real promise in what’s his rookie season and returning to Copperhead might just help him improve again.

• CLICK HERE to back Castillo with Sky Bet

Castillo, a top amateur who went to college in Florida, missed the cut here last year but that doesn’t tell the full story as he was one of the very best ball-strikers in the field over the first two rounds but endured a rotten time of things on the greens.

That can be an issue for him and was last week, when he missed the cut narrowly despite an outstanding driving display, but it only took a half-decent putting week for him to contend at Torrey Pines and his long-game is seriously impressive.

One bad round each week has halted Castillo’s progress so far but he’s a fast learner, as evidenced by his out-of-the-gates Korn Ferry Tour win, and there could be much more to come this week.

He's the one I probably feel least hopeful about in truth so we'll take the biggest prices and keep stakes to a minimum, but those who prefer eight or 10 places have plenty of options to explore.

STEVEN FISK went close to winning in Puerto Rico and while we should treat that form with caution given that this is stronger, I was surprised when he opened up at 250/1.

• CLICK HERE to back Fisk with Sky Bet

Considering that the winner of that event, Karl Vilips, was 150-200/1 for The PLAYERS on his next start it seems a bit odd that Fisk can rock up to this significantly weaker event totally unconsidered, despite looking like a player of real potential.

Indeed he was arguably the standout ball-striker on the Korn Ferry Tour last year, a play-off defeat here in Florida among his standout results two weeks on from a win in his native Georgia, and after a narrow missed cut in the Cognizant he was right in the thick of things last time to show that he’s adapting to this higher level.

I’d note also that he’d been 17th in Mexico, driving the ball extremely well just as he had in Phoenix, and with his ball-striking strong at PGA National only to miss the cut on the number, his game looks to be in an excellent place.

At fourth in strokes-gained off-the-tee he’s driving the ball as well as almost anyone and at sixth in greens hit there are enough indications that we’re talking about a real flusher here, one who was a quality amateur, and who is getting more comfortable with every start.

He doesn’t have any course experience that I can uncover but did win at the same course as Burns on the Korn Ferry Tour. I can see him going very well again in a tournament where we should expect some rookies to get involved.

Finally, JACKSON SUBER could be this week’s Walker and contend on his doorstep.

• CLICK HERE to back Suber with Sky Bet

Born and raised in Tampa, Suber made his PGA Tour debut in this tournament three years ago and brought along around a hundred friends and family members, which I’d imagine will be the case again.

He’d attended the event as a child on several occasions and had played the course a handful of times before that debut, which predictably saw him miss the cut despite having made a promising start.

Now returning as a PGA Tour member, I’m admittedly a tad worried that driving isn’t a strength, but his iron play looks very good and helped him to a top-10 finish on his first start of the season in the Sony Open.

Since then he’s defied tough weather to sit 13th at halfway at Torrey Pines and two starts ago opened 69-66 at PGA National before a quiet weekend, and then went to Sawgrass where a poor first round was followed by a much better Friday.

In fact he made an eye-catching seven birdies in round two and was on the cut-line when making a triple-bogey seven at the last, which is enough of an indication that his game is in a good place heading to an event he’ll have earmarked long ago.

Suber’s only weakness right now looks to be the driver but he’s the third-best iron player in the field on this season’s numbers, his short-game is good, and if he can keep it in play he could give those close to him plenty to cheer come the weekend.

Posted at 1800 GMT on 18/03/25

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