Matthew Fitzpatrick can bounce back from a missed cut at Sawgrass and contend for the Valspar Championship according to Ben Coley.
Golf betting tips: Valspar Championship
2pts e.w. Matthew Fitzpatrick at 28/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Gary Woodland at 60/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Bubba Watson at 66/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Martin Kaymer at 150/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Danny Lee at 300/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Wyndham Clark at 300/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Five of the world's top 10 remain in the field for a strong renewal of the Valspar Championship, and two of them have eyes on Jon Rahm's number one ranking. Collin Morikawa missed an excellent chance to take it in the Bahamas late last year, and last week it was Viktor Hovland's turn to narrowly miss out, though his late mistakes at Sawgrass were likely nothing to do with anything but matters at hand. He was playing to win one of the most important tournaments of the year, the rankings far from his mind, and looked like he might do so until those short-game frailties returned.
Now, though, both will prepare for the Valspar at Innisbrook's Copperhead Course knowing full well that Rahm is powerless to stop them. It is a factor which is difficult to weigh up but nevertheless significant, and should ensure focus where there might have been temptation to let the mind wander. We are now into the thick of the season and with the Match Play next week, and Augusta soon after that, this would otherwise have been a tournament to conserve rather than spend mental energy.
These are the challenges one has to face in order to reach the summit of any professional sport, so rather than seek to argue against either man, I'll simply say that taking short prices doesn't really appeal. This tournament hasn't been especially kind to favourites down the years but above all else its position in the schedule increases the prospect of another slightly peculiar leaderboard, for all that things should be a little more predictable than that utterly bizarre PLAYERS Championship most of us would like to forget in a hurry.
Sawgrass is tough at the best of times, especially so last week, and perhaps that's why it's been a useless form guide in the short-term. Of course, we don't have to go back far to see evidence of champions who went on to achieve great things later in the year, but history suggests some more creative thinking might be best here, in the aftermath, when many are going to struggle to dust themselves down and go again.
Last year, the Honda Classic followed it and of the 12 players who made up the top 10 and ties, only Sungjae Im (17th Sawgrass, 8th Honda) really held his form. The winner, Matt Jones, had been 55th in The PLAYERS, Brandon Hagy hadn't played in it, and those closest behind such as Denny McCarthy (55th), Russell Henley (MC) and CT Pan (MC) had been non-factors at Sawgrass.
Two years earlier, it was the Valspar which came next, and Paul Casey won it following a missed cut. Louis Oosthuizen went from 56th at Sawgrass to a share second behind Casey, Jason Kokrak sitting alongside him having been just in front a week earlier. Go back another year and the Byron Nelson had its turn, with Aaron Wise (DNP) and Marc Leishman (63rd) dominating.
Perhaps that's enough to justify sticking with Morikawa or giving the benefit of the doubt to Justin Thomas, eventually mid-pack from the wrong side of the draw, but the one I like is MATTHEW FITZPATRICK at around the 28/1 mark.
Fitzpatrick opened at the same price he started at Sawgrass in a far stronger field, and I can't really understand why he's considered similarly likely to win here even having been shaved to 28s. Perhaps it's because he missed the cut in 2018, but his PGA Tour form that spring read MC-30-MC-MC-36-38-14-46 and he's a better player now, his run of top-10 finishes to begin the year only knocked off course by weather which some felt should've seen The PLAYERS suspended.
Fitzpatrick still managed to drive the ball well and gain strokes from tee-to-green, so a good putting week and he'd have been among those to defy a massive draw bias. Instead, the most trustworthy club in his bag happened to let him down and while that will have been frustrating, he should have no trouble shaking it off, safe in the knowledge that those hard yards working on his swing over winter have not suddenly been blown into irrelevance.
With the potential for a few of these to have played one difficult round too many of late, Fitzpatrick's freshness is a potential advantage as he chose not to return until February, and his schedule was interrupted due to illness which forced him to skip the Genesis Invitational. Either side of that he played superbly, with every aspect of his game firing, and he's had four starts to Hovland's seven.
Copperhead proved something of an all-around test last year and it's certainly the sort of twisting, tree-lined course Fitzpatrick likes. Some have described it as a more undulating version of Harbour Town, the course he calls his favourite on the PGA Tour, but in terms of correlation the best guide is surely Riviera. Last year's winner Sam Burns had been the runaway leader there and virtually everyone behind him had form in the Genesis, as has Casey, winner of the previous two editions.
Fitzpatrick was fifth there last year having played well for 30th on debut so he ticks that box, and I like the fact he tends towards a fade off the tee. That's very much Casey's weapon of choice and the same is true of Burns following his impressive, front-running breakthrough last May.
At 26th in the world and with seven DP World Tour wins to his name, the next step for Fitzpatrick is to win on the PGA Tour and given his strong record in Florida (six top-12s in his last seven prior to last week), this sort of test looks to be just what he needs. To my eye he looks be some way the best bet at the front of the market.
Big-hitting major winners worth chancing
Indeed my enthusiasm for the big names is pretty limited. Thomas would get the nominal vote ahead of Dustin Johnson, whose wins at Riviera and TPC River Highlands both tie in nicely with this. Johnson's ball-striking here has been good and he was in the final group on Sunday on his first visit in 2019, while on Monday at Sawgrass he ended 3-3-3-3 for a course-record 63 to confirm he's not all that far away.
Still, bookmakers have run for cover at 14s so I'm going to cast the net wider and take a few chances before we move into a part of the season which could be bossed by the big names.
Next is GARY WOODLAND, a former champion here who, like Fitzpatrick, was playing really well prior to The PLAYERS.
Unlike Fitzpatrick, Woodland did benefit from a good set of tee-times at Sawgrass but it's just not his course and I'm not going to dwell on a missed cut. He's now failed to make the weekend in seven of his 10 starts there, it's nearly a decade since his sole top-20 finish, and for a major champion to have such an abysmal record there tells you how worthless a guide to the state of his game it really is.
Woodland bounced back from last year's missed cut with sixth place in Texas and was in the mix in the Memorial following a poor effort at Sawgrass in 2018, so the message from me is to draw a thick, red line through last week where he's concerned. Do that, and you've a former Valspar champion who was fifth at the Honda, and then had an excellent chance to win when fifth again at Bay Hill.
Eagle
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 6, 2022
Double bogey
Gary Woodland falls 1 back of the lead. pic.twitter.com/4UP9HkCyVW
Having played all three Florida events so far I'd argue a weekend off is a positive, and he marked our cards a fortnight ago when stating that "Tampa is going to feel like a cake walk playing the last two weeks." He also spoke there of 'walking with a little more swagger' and I doubt that will be affected by yet another early exit at The PLAYERS.
More of a concern would be the fact he's not played well here since 2014, but that doesn't necessarily tell the entire tale. Woodland has ultimately finished first, eighth and 29th in this tournament when putting to a better-than-average standard, often hitting the ball well without reward. Right now he appears to have a little more consistency with his putting and though he can be feast-or-famine, at 60/1 it's worth chancing that we get the former at a course we know suits his power fade.
Bubba looks a bet
Keegan Bradley is bound to be popular after defying a bad draw and an unfortunate penalty on his way to a top-five finish last week where, despite those early blows, he looked to have every chance heading to the 17th tee. Often a fast-starter here, he saw it through to finish runner-up to Burns last May and returns now having got the juices flowing once more.
BUBBA WATSON though is preferred as, like Johnson, he has correlating form at River Highlands and Riviera, and as one of the most horses-for-courses players on the circuit is worth chancing at another he likes.
We do have to forgive him a missed cut at the aforementioned Riviera, where he's a three-time champion, but prior to that he had his pocket picked in Saudi Arabia before a brilliant ball-striking display in Phoenix, so it's been a generally encouraging start to the year for a player whose previous individual outing came last August.
He was on the wrong side of the draw at Sawgrass, impressing hugely during a bogey-free second round, and is sure to be much more comfortable at a course where he's been third and fourth and was 13th at a big price last year. Indeed whereas he says Sawgrass doesn't fit his eye, he's spoken of how much he enjoys 'chipping' his driver along these corridors in the same way he has at those other tree-lined courses he so enjoys.
Only two players finished bogey-free on Saturday, @JustinThomas34 and @BubbaWatson. pic.twitter.com/xzrjX9L2Vk
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 13, 2022
Bubba's tee-to-green game has been very strong at Copperhead down the years, he generally putts the greens well, and it's not difficult to envisage him contending in a field where many are going to struggle for motivation. He's got that in spades as he tries to play his way back into the US team picture from just outside the world's top 50, and this is one of the handful of tournaments I could see him winning.
At bigger prices, Brandon Wu and Sahith Theegala may see this as a good opportunity, but the opening 400/1 about Wu has unsurprisingly disappeared and Theegala is more appealing. He's struggled on the greens lately but putted well on bermuda at the RSM and in the Sanderson Farms, and his shot shape off the tee is a really big weapon here.
Trey Mullinax has a course top-10 to his name and finished 28th and 30th prior to a missed cut under brutal Bay Hill conditions so is also respected at a course where his length is a big weapon, but I'm more inclined to chance old favourite MARTIN KAYMER, another who fades the ball.
Kaymer got off to a nightmare start on his long-awaited return at the Honda, having taken time out due to the birth of his first child. But come the second round at the brutal PGA National, his customarily strong ball-striking was back and he was able to leave there with plenty of positives.
Having since been forced to sit and watch from the sidelines as others battled Sawgrass, where he won in 2014, he'll return with plenty to prove and at a course he described as one of his favourites in the US when 20th on debut back in 2011. Since then he's played twice and missed two cuts, but his long-game was excellent on his last visit and he'd sat eighth after the first round only to miss out by a shot.
That was six years ago and I'm under no illusions as to his revised status in the game, but he's had several chances to win on similar courses since 2020, and remains a fabulous iron player. We saw as much with a field-leading display on his final start of 2021 and as I believe this is a really good course for him, a small bet at 150/1 makes plenty of appeal.
Plenty of other outsiders make some appeal including Hayden Buckley, whose excellent ball-striking is being hidden by some shocking short-game displays. Martin Laird has form here and at Riviera and continues to hit the ball to a high standard, Charley Hoffman loves the course and has shown the odd flourish, and Aaron Wise is a good putting week from getting right into the mix again.
Oh Danny boy...
My next selection though is DANNY LEE, a real rogue who could shoot any number but is definitely capable of getting involved here if putting it all together.
The New Zealander has started to strike his irons really well, dating back to a third-round 65 for his best ever Riviera finish, and has form at River Highlands where he's been third in the past. His sole PGA Tour win came on a similarly old-school, tree-lined course at the Greenbrier and he's also gone well at the likes of Firestone, Four Seasons, Colonial, El Camaleon, East Lake and Deere Run, all of which tell us where he's at his most effective.
Here at Copperhead, he was the first-round leader on his debut in 2014, seventh a year later on his return and in the mix in 2016 before he was forced to withdraw. He then added 22nd place in 2017 and displayed further evidence of how much he enjoys the test when defying a slow start to climb to 21st last year, when his form figures read MC-WD-MC.
It's not as if he's in red-hot form now but he has really caught fire with his approaches, hitting it far better than the end result at Bay Hill and then, last week, doing so again over the 34 holes he played. Lee was in the very last group of the ill-fated second wave and chose not to come back for the final two holes of his second round, so it's easy to miss the fact he'd made one bogey and two birdies in 16 excellent holes played under brutal conditions.
As it turned out, he'd have made the cut had he returned and finished birdie-birdie but of course that'd have been unlikely and it's not surprising that he chose not to even attempt it. Still, it means he comes here seemingly under a cloud according to the form book, whereas he might actually be very encouraged by how the last few weeks have gone.
He may well be hamstrung by the putter but it hadn't been a problem at the start of the year and we are talking about one of the most volatile players around. A few years ago he'd been making nothing until coming here and holing everything and rather than have a stab at just how things will go on the greens, I'll simply say that the key element of his game has been really very good, and he now comes to a course at which he's very comfortable.
At massive odds I am quite sweet on Lee and rate him the pick of the outsiders ahead of WYNDHAM CLARK, who nevertheless is worth chancing.
As a player who has made his name as one of the best putters around, it's striking that Clark's tee-to-green stats have been solid in both visits during which he's failed to make his share. That's why in making both cuts, he's offered plenty of promise.
Given how strong the link to Riviera appears to be, the fact he's finished 17th and eighth from two starts there stands out and the only difference is he's made plenty of putts over in LA but struggled to do so here in Tampa.
His form doesn't look great on paper but after a run of cuts made and having often been around the top 20, he missed the cut on the number at Pebble Beach and then couldn't quite salvage things with a second-round 68 in the Phoenix Open, again missing out narrowly.
After a month off, he returned in The PLAYERS and unsurprisingly missed the cut but he has been awful in all three visits to Sawgrass and this is much more suitable. Definitely capable on the right course, Copperhead is that and his long, left-to-right driving and ace putting reminds me a little of Burns.
The difference is that Clark hasn't mastered his approach play yet but at 300/1 a small bet in hope rather than expectations completes the staking plan.
Posted at 1305 GMT on 15/03/22
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