Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Valero Texas Open preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Valero Texas Open

1.5pts e.w. Gary Woodland at 35/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Rickie Fowler at 66/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Brendan Steele at 80/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Doug Ghim at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Dylan Frittelli at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

• Abraham Ancer has withdrawn - stakes refunded

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

The Masters is now just around the corner, and if there's one thing lacking from the build-up (not to do with Tiger Woods) it might be victory for one of the PGA Tour's established stars in a season which has so far been about the emergence of new ones.

Scottie Scheffler is the latest, and in less than two months he's gone from maiden to three-time champion whose entire career CV, at the age of 25, is missing only one thing: a major championship. It has been a staggering rise and demonstrates how fluid the situation is at the top of the sport, Jon Rahm having spent months clinging on from Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland, until Scheffler emerged from out of shot.

Compared to these names, Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth are grizzled veterans of the sport. McIlroy's first PGA Tour win came when Scheffler was 13 years old, and when Spieth was capturing the Open Championship in 2017, Scheffler and Morikawa were preparing for the Walker Cup. When it comes to Augusta National, it will be fascinating to see whether experience can continue to hold sway in a sport which has never valued it less.

The blessing and the curse of holding this slot on the calendar is to have everything viewed through the prism of the Masters. It used to be that the Houston Open would style itself on Augusta, a unique calling card and one which seemed to do the trick. By contrast the Valero Texas Open relies more on heritage and those cowboy boots some poor soul will be expected to put on when they succeed Spieth on Sunday, if indeed anybody does.

I felt Spieth actually played well last week, despite elimination from a tame group. The weak link was his putting, which was frankly abysmal from inside 10 feet, and that would have to be a concern both here and there. Instead, the man to beat is McIlroy, whose experience told him that skipping the WGC Match Play would be a wise call. He might be right, and if he captures the career grand slam next week, it will look less wise call, more stroke of absolute genius.

TPC San Antonio is a really good course for McIlroy, as hinted at when runner-up in 2013, his sole visit to date. This is a desert par 72 which can be punishing, but is probably best categorised as risk-reward for the most part. It shares something in common with Scottsdale in that regard, though in truth any desert course could offer clues, from those in the Middle East to PGA West in California, home of what's now known as The American Express.

I particularly like the AmEx as a guide. Andrew Landry won this at 200/1 having been runner-up at PGA West earlier in the year, and he's since won there. But above all else it's clear this is a tournament for quality ball-strikers, generally those who drive the ball well like Landry, or else rely on quality approach play as Kevin Chappell did in 2017. Corey Conners was 58th around-the-greens and 28th in putting when he won here as a Monday qualifier, and Spieth aside the roll-of-honour looks like a rogues' gallery of awful putters.

Another factor of note is that Texans or those with strong Texas ties have often stepped up here. The Texas Open has been running for a century now so it has real heritage, and it definitely means more to those whose first taste of watching professional golf might've come here in San Antonio. Spieth and Landry are both Texans, while both Steven Bowditch and Jimmy Walker had lived in the state for years prior to their wins in 2014 and 2015 respectively.

Did you get the Ancer right?

If we were playing 'guess the selection', a game which admittedly would not appeal to many of the world's 7.75 billion people, those who follow the sport religiously would probably know what's coming next. ABRAHAM ANCER simply ticks every box, and in a weak field this looks a fine opportunity to bag his second PGA Tour win.

• CLICK HERE to back Ancer with Sky Bet

Ancer plays under the flag of Mexico, but he was in fact born in Texas. Nowadays, he lives just down the road from TPC San Antonio, practicing there throughout the off-season. This is as much a home game as the Mayakoba Classic, where he's demonstrated time and again that he can rise to the occasion, finishing eighth, 12th, 12th and seventh on his last four visits.

His record here isn't quite so strong, but it's packed with promise. Ancer has made all four cuts, driving the ball well but failed by his approach play until that piece of the puzzle clicked last year. Typically his driving was errant and he continued to struggle around the greens, whereas on them he has gained strokes in each of these four appearances. Given how erratic he can be with putter in hand, this speaks to his familiarity with the course.

Ancer's approach play has generally been good since last year's renewal, the exception being when disappointing in the Valspar. Perhaps on reflection a Monday finish to The PLAYERS Championship bled into Copperhead, but he bounced back to reach the quarter-finals of the Match Play where a Saturday thrashing of Morikawa was among the performances of the week.

Though beaten by Conners later that day, Ancer's scoring was comparable to that of Dustin Johnson and Kevin Kisner, who both progressed. And, tellingly, he'd been saying all week that his game felt really close, adding at the weekend: "I've had some nice feelings throughout my swing, throughout the week, that I wasn't really having the past weeks. But I knew I was really close and putting has also been really nice this week."

Entitled to depart Austin for San Antonio with renewed optimism after a quiet spring, his potential suitability to this test is highlighted by the fact he was second to Landry in the AmEx, and at his best his long-game is a huge asset. Throw in those Texas ties and he looks every inch a champion in the making.

With Hideki Matsuyama and Bryson DeChambeau both testing their own fitness and Conners having had to play another two games in the Match Play on Sunday, this does look weak at the front end and I wonder if GARY WOODLAND might emulate Spieth in reigniting his career while other elite players let their minds wander to Augusta.

• CLICK HERE to back Woodland with Sky Bet

Last year, Spieth completed his resurgence by winning here and there are definitely parallels with Woodland, who found his game at the Honda Classic (fifth), could then have won the Arnold Palmer Invitational (fifth), and again caught the eye when 21st at the Valspar Championship last time out.

Not for the first time, Woodland's putter hurt him at Copperhead, though his driving wasn't quite where he'd like it to be. Nevertheless, 10th at halfway and 21st come the close adds substance to his form, and underlines the fact that he's in much better touch than when sixth here in 2021.

Back then, the former US Open champion had gone almost nine months without a top-10 finish, but he's added six in the year that has since passed. There are still issues to iron out and he's hardly one to set your watch by, but consistency appears to be returning, and as a former Scottsdale winner who was runner-up at PGA West, it makes sense that San Antonio would be a good fit.

Though he will need to dial in the driver, his approach play last time was the best it's been since last May, and his performance in this event last year was built on strong tee-to-green work (sixth) and adequate putting. Given a pretty rotten Augusta record and the fact he's winless since Pebble Beach three years ago, he will be totally focused on what looks a good opportunity.

Jhonattan Vegas is a fabulous ball-striker who went close in the Dominican Republic last week. He's looked a winner-in-waiting for an age now, went to college in Texas, sometimes practices here and beat Woodland in a PGA West play-off many moons ago. It all adds up to a nice case, but he's a bit frustrating and I can't say the general 40/1 makes any great appeal.

Can Fowler make a late Masters bid?

I'll return to Texas ties later then, but first I can't resist RICKIE FOWLER, once known for playing well on the eve of majors but now with a different agenda: to qualify for this one.

• CLICK HERE to back Fowler with Sky Bet

Those not yet in the Masters field have to win here to get the final invite and though many will have eyes on Richard Bland as he bids to get over last week's heartache, it's Fowler who could author the biggest story of the week, at a course where he was 17th in 2019 and 17th again last year.

Form always requires context, and had we been talking about visits back in 2014 or so, Fowler's wouldn't leap off the page. But while he was still inside the world's top 10 in 2019, he came here last year with his ranking plummeting, with no form to speak of, and finished 17th – despite an opening 76 to lie 110th. Over the final three rounds he was nine-under, scoring comparable with those in the mix. Just two other players shot 76 or worse and made the weekend, neither finishing up with Fowler.

Having been second at halfway in 2019, San Antonio is a really good course for Fowler, and it was under familiar, desert conditions that he was third to McIlroy and Morikawa at the CJ Cup earlier in the season. Elsewhere, he's won in Abu Dhabi and at Scottsdale and played well at PGA West and Dove Mountain, all similar, all in the desert, and all good pointers towards this event.

This is all well and good, but what of his form? It has undeniably been poor, and he's not kicked on from that galvanised top-three in Nevada. However, he has made his last three cuts, and it's hard not to be taken with the way he hit the ball at Bay Hill. Fowler gained six strokes with his ball-striking, only a hair less than he had at the CJ Cup, which in turn was his best performance in that regard since around this time three years ago.

Four of his last five starts have seen him register positive strokes-gained approach stats, the outlier coming at a Honda Classic which accentuates the negatives, and his tee-to-green golf has been good elsewhere lately. If he can bring the putter into line, at a course where he's comfortable, an eleventh-hour invite to Augusta is not out of the question in one of the weakest events he's played this season.

Mito Pereira played poorly here on the Korn Ferry Tour but could well leave that behind and is respected along with Davis Riley and Sahith Theegala, with Alex Smalley and Austin Smotherman other talented rookies who could go well. Smotherman was the only one I considered seriously as he's demonstrated a quality long-game and went to college in Texas, where he now lives, while he also led here at that lower level en route to fourth.

Texas ties count for plenty

However, the really fancy prices have gone, his short-game is very poor and he shot 75-75 in a weak event last week, so the remaining Texas votes go to DOUG GHIM and DYLAN FRITTELLI.

• CLICK HERE to back Ghim with Sky Bet

Ghim finished sixth at Sawgrass last time and spoke of how much more comfortable he felt versus the previous renewal, which saw him tumble down the leaderboard on Sunday as two-ball partner Justin Thomas won the title.

He went on to finish 44th here but it's notable that he ranked seventh in strokes-gained tee-to-green, finishing 77th in putting among 78 players who made the cut. That's not completely out of character, but he putted quite nicely in The PLAYERS, which hadn't been the case a year ago, and is worth chancing in that department.

Ghim went to college in Texas and his game is all about quality, accurate driving, and pounding greens. His stats this season may not quite paint that picture but last year he was 21st on the PGA Tour from tee-to-green, and he was back doing what he does best last time, ranking second in fairways, fourth in greens, and eighth in SG: tee-to-green in an elite tournament.

This is anything but and having gone well at PGA West when fifth, and spent plenty of time practicing in the desert in LA, he has a lot in his favour here.

Frittelli has found a bit of consistency of late, making his last four cuts and hitting solid approaches throughout. His driving has been an issue on more prohibitive courses, but he likes to give it a good rip from the tee and San Antonio should prove far more accommodating than recent host venues in Florida.

• CLICK HERE to back Frittelli with Sky Bet

He was second in strokes-gained off-the-tee when 20th here on debut and made the cut on his return, while he's got an excellent desert record on the DP World Tour where three of his last four starts in the UAE have been top-10s, and he's been in the mix in all four.

Another who went to college in Texas, Frittelli now lives in Austin and will have plenty of support. Proven at this level and having won an eve-of-major John Deere Classic, history might just repeat itself.

Former champion looks a Steele

Finally, BRENDAN STEELE has to be worth a bet at 66/1 and upwards. You'll get 100/1 with firms paying six places and there's 125/1 in some low-key places, but 80s with the full eight is more than enough to make the staking plan.

• CLICK HERE to back Steele with Sky Bet

Steele is one of the most horses-for-courses players on the circuit, so his 2011 win here is a really big pointer. He's since won the Safeway Open twice, been second and fourth in the Sony Open, and boasts four top-six finishes at TPC Scottsdale. He's been runner-up at PGA West, too, and is another who helps tie these courses together.

He's also one of the most reliable drivers of a ball on the PGA Tour so again fits the profile, and that club has remained strong all season – he ranks fifth, two spots ahead of fellow former Texas winner Conners, and just behind rookie sensation Cameron Young.

Lately, though, other parts of his game have started to turn, and it's resulted in 26th at Bay Hill and 13th at Sawgrass. His approach work improved from one to the next, ranking 21st and 12th to complement sixth and first in driving. In The PLAYERS he gained fully 11.7 strokes with his ball-striking alone, which is usually good enough to either win or nearly win regardless of the company.

Unfortunately, he had some struggles around the greens which I can happily breeze past. The putter, however, is a real problem, and he's 193rd so far this season. However, at a course he loves, where he's also been fourth, eight and 13th and has missed one cut in 10 visits, I am prepared to take on board that risk. This has been a fabulous event for backing the best ball-strikers and not dwelling too long on the least predictable part of the game.

Posted at 1645 BST on 28/03/22

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