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Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Top nationalities picks for The PLAYERS Championship at Sawgrass
Alex Noren can prove the pick of three Swedish players while veterans represent value among the Englishmen as Ben Coley previews the top nationalities markets.
Golf betting tips: The PLAYERS Championship
4pts Alex Noren to be the top Swedish player at 20/21 (bet365)
0.75pt Ian Poulter to be the top English player at 9/1 (Sky Bet, BoyleSports)
0.75pt Lee Westwood to be the top English player at 10/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1.5pts Adam Scott to be the top Australian player at 3/1 (General)
1pt Marc Leishman to be the top Australian player at 9/2 (General)
Top Englishman
In racing parlance, the dead eight line up in the top Englishman market, each of them attempting to become the first from their country to win this prestigious title. There are genuine contenders among them, too, with Matt Fitzpatrick and Tyrrell Hatton bang in-form, and others who love the test Sawgrass provides.
It's nevertheless tempting to play each-way given the shape of the betting, but I can't split IAN POULTER and LEE WESTWOOD at the odds so will instead split stakes win-only.
Hatton has a miserable record here, don't forget, and while Fitzpatrick was very much on my outright shortlist, it's not like his is blemish-free. Things came together last year as he contended en route to ninth and the obvious conclusion is that he'll produce a similar performance given an excellent start to the campaign, but it's far from guaranteed and, back to racing, there's no reason to run scared of one rival.
With Tommy Fleetwood's long-game distinctly unimpressive at Bay Hill, where Paul Casey and Justin Rose both struggled, and Matt Wallace badly out of sorts, Poulter and Westwood look much the best value here at 9/1 and 10/1 respectively. Effectively, backing both gives you odds of over 4/1 and while stakes should be kept small, that looks a sound investment to me.
Poulter has twice finished second in this and was third at halfway in 2019. In fact in five of his last six starts here, Poulter has been inside the top 25 at halfway and it's the sort of strategic test he enjoys. His form is also solid having been up there early at Bay Hill, and made good ground over the weekend of the Honda, and his short-game looks as solid as ever.
Westwood meanwhile has made all five cuts this year, missing just one since the US Open last June. It was on the back of a similar start to the season that he finished runner-up in back-to-back Florida events in 2021, the second of them coming here, and he boasts six top-10 finishes in 15 starts at Sawgrass.
He and Poulter have won this market between them four times in 12 years and while age is catching up with them, experience can count for a lot at this course. We may only need Fitzpatrick to underperform and at upwards of 4/1, siding with the two veterans may be the way to go.
Top Swede
There's nothing complicated about this one: ALEX NOREN should be the best of three Swedish players on everything we've seen lately, and at just a shade of odds-on, he looks a bit of a gift.
Noren's iron play has improved through each of his five starts this year and he hit it as well as he has in a long time when placed at the Honda a fortnight ago, leading the field in greens hit and ranking seventh in strokes-gained approach.
Combine that with his typically sharp short-game and a good record in Florida and he's an outsider with definite place claims, having been 10th here on debut and 17th on his second go. His game is in a much better place than it was ahead of missed cuts in 2019 and 2021.
By contrast, Henrik Stenson has missed back-to-back cuts since returning to the PGA Tour and shot 85-74 here last year, while Henrik Norlander shot 80-74 in that renewal and has missed four cuts in a row this year, his best result coming when 55th in the Sony Open.
Noren shot 78-70 and beat them by six and 11 shots respectively last year. That underlines how little he may have to do to be the best of the Swedes once again and I would be pretty confident that he might be the only one of the trio who is around for the weekend this time.
Top Australian
Cameron Smith continues to dominate top Aussie markets and with good reason, but his PGA Tour form this year reads MC-33 and he was a good way behind ADAM SCOTT at Riviera, and a repeat may be on the cards here.
Scott is playing really nicely, and while this is largely thanks to some of the best putting displays of his career, there's a feeling that he's simply in a good place again. All parts of his game have fired at various stages this year and he's been a persistent threat, with three top-10 finishes in five starts.
Winner of this title in 2004, more recently he finished 12th, sixth, 11th and 12th in a four-year run before a modest 48th last year, when still searching for his game. It's certainly back now and with Smith's record here less than inspiring, backing the second-favourite looks the way to go.
Jason Day returns following the death of his mother and this is a very difficult place to do so, so MARC LEISHMAN is the biggest threat and once again, I'm inclined to take two against the rest.
Leishman's confidence is high, he was well ahead of Smith in both the Sony Open and at Riviera, and though his Sawgrass record is uninspiring, he's actually hit the ball well here on a number of occasions. With his putter generally very good this season and wins to his name both in Florida and at a Pete Dye-designed River Highlands, he could be in for another good week.
Posted at 1505 GMT on 08/03/22
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