After another profitable year, Ben Coley's first preview for 2025 features selections ranging from 28/1 to bigger than 500s.
Golf betting tips: The Sentry
2pts e.w. Sahith Theegala at 28/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
2pts e.w. Akshay Bhatia at 35/1 (Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1.5pts e.w. Brian Harman at 50/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Sepp Straka at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
0.5pt e.w. Peter Malnati at 750/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
And so begins another year on the PGA Tour.
Thankfully, it is one whose lead-in has not been interrupted by the departure of even a single member to LIV Golf. It's telling that the reaction to news of Scottie Scheffler's Christmas mishap (the best golfer in the world and I have one thing in common at least: debilitating clumsiness) was not 'he's going to LIV!' and with Tony Finau and Viktor Hovland both in the field for The Sentry despite injuries of their own, things appear nicely calm.
Scheffler's absence, along with that of Rory McIlroy, means Xander Schauffele takes his place as a strong favourite and so he should after a fabulous 2024. It rather petered out in the end but that's acceptable and this former winner of the event once known as the Tournament of Champions is the man most likely to reach the required total, which might again be in the region of 30-under par.
Such low scoring around a unique par 73 suggests we ought to prepare for the unexpected even with a solid favourite and there's always been a sense that not much can be taken for granted here. How much Christmas rust players build up in golf's 50-weeks-a-year age I'm not really sure, but on a more tangible level we've equipment changes, wind, undulations and, without doubt, a tournament which often boils down to wedges and putting, the latter inherently volatile.
Aloha tournament week 🌺#TheSentry pic.twitter.com/koYHzOWG0q
— The Sentry (@TheSentry) December 30, 2024
Yes, the roll of honour is strong but remember, for so many years this was a winners-only field. Now, you merely have to make the top 50 on the FedEx Cup to be considered a champion and together with the actual PGA Tour winners from 2024, those players make for a bigger, more varied collective. Whether we get a surprise champion to follow in Chris Kirk's footsteps or not, I don't think this is anywhere near as cut-and-dried as some of the upcoming Signature Events may well be.
Kirk is an accurate, modest driver whose game gets better after the tee shot, which really isn't placed under pressure around the Plantation Course. His short-game was one of the best in the field, as Jon Rahm's had been a year earlier, as Cam Smith's had been, as had that of Harris English, as had that of Schauffele. Not since 2018 has a played done their damage in a different way and my view is that we ought to focus on those shorter clubs and, gulp, the putter.
Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa are considered the pick of the market leaders ahead of Justin Thomas, whose putter remains a big issue. In fact he was beaten seven shots by Scheffler in the Hero and almost all of them were accounted for on the greens; he'll need to do much better in this lower-scoring event if he's to end a lengthy winless run.
Cantlay is much more solid in that department and has never putted poorly here which is notable I think. He's drifted to a tempting price, but has played four competitive rounds in four months and there weren't many positives beyond his approach play in the Hero.
Morikawa should've won this in 2023, when he holed more than his share, and while not a top-notch putter is at least a capable, streaky one. It remains remarkable that he has his putter to thank for both major wins and if it were to behave itself this week, he might get that victory in Hawaii he so covets, but unlike two years ago he didn't play the Hero Challenge and rust is a concern given his absence since October.
Digression dealt with, I make SAHITH THEEGALA the best each-way bet.
Theegala is one of several here who rather found themselves Schefflered last year, unable to win his second PGA Tour title as the world number one took so many opportunities off the table, ably supported by the likes of Schauffele and McIlroy.
But it was a solid campaign for Theegala, whose underlying numbers represented a step up on 2023, and whose game through the bag was above-average. If anything, his putter dipping a little might've been the one negative but he was still inside the top 50 and I suspect he'll prove something of a fixture in that top quarter of the rankings in the years to come.
That club was excellent at the Hero Challenge in December and it's certainly a positive that he played there. So often in the past, high-class players have contended in both these limited-field events held either side of Christmas and while the course in the Bahamas is much flatter than this one, there are similarities in terms of conditions and even their rhythm and scoring opportunities to some extent.
Theegala's short-game as a whole was electric at Albany and ninth place certainly didn't do him justice, as he lost two balls off the tee at the driveable par-four late on Sunday afternoon; bad shots, yes, but punished to extremes. The ensuing quadruple bogey, on a hole where some players putted for eagle, was the difference between a top-four finish and his eventual eighth place.
I like the fact that this will be his third visit to Kapalua, where experience has always mattered, and second place last year confirmed the impression he'd created on debut. Theegala is by now established as a creative, shot-making player for whom this challenge, complete with sidehill lies and changing winds, makes perfect sense.
Having done everything well when edged out by Kirk, and improved despite not winning since, I like his chances of going one better after a solid end to the year. Dating back to East Lake, where he was second in 72-hole scoring, he's added two top-10s and only failed to perform in the ZOZO Championship, which I can easily excuse around a tough course following a post-Presidents Cup break which I guarantee meant putting the clubs away for a while.
With some Augusta form further highlighting his shot-making skills, fans' favourite Theegala could usher in the new year in style and lay the groundwork for the best season of his career.
Sam Burns has been eased to a nice price but that reflects a modest record in Hawaii. Still, he's one of just a small cluster of very good putters towards the front of the market and it wouldn't surprise me at all were he to light up these bermuda greens and improve on his past performances in the event.
Preference though is for AKSHAY BHATIA, for whom the long putter has been a revelation.
Bhatia went from ranking 183rd in putting in his rookie season to 33rd last year, the single biggest climb among all PGA Tour members, and that helped him to a second win in Texas before he let slip a golden opportunity when missing out by a single shot in Detroit. Had he won that title it'd have been three in 12 months.
Perhaps that mishap was what cost him a Presidents Cup place in the end but the Ryder Cup will be firmly on the agenda of this 22-year-old star in the making, who won't mind conditions here having secured his first pro win in the Bahamas at the beginning of his sole Korn Ferry Tour campaign.
Eagle for @AkshayBhatia_1 🦅
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) December 15, 2024
He and @JenniferKupcho lead by one with one to play @GTInvitational.
📺: NBC pic.twitter.com/FtAXkLQG7X
Bhatia further underlined how comfortable he is when there's a breeze to deal with by winning in Texas and then again when fourth in the Hero Challenge, where his approach play and putting were both excellent. For a time he looked like he'd give Scheffler something to think about, but a stray drive at the ninth hole in round four stopped him in his tracks just as the world number one was going through the gears.
That recent experience in contention gives him an edge on almost everyone here (Scheffler and Tom Kim are both absent) and it came after he'd finished second in Japan's Dunlop Phoenix, so it was a fine end to a memorable season for the young left-hander, who then went on to take third in the Grant Thornton pairs event.
He now comes back to Hawaii for a second try at The Sentry and the first could hardly have been more promising, as he sat second through 54 holes before fading, still ranking among the best putters in the field but caught out on a few approach shots as so many debutants are.
With that experience behind him, Bhatia could well find himself in contention on Sunday for the fourth start running, further encouragement drawn from the fact his form figures on his January return read 1-4-14, all by the coast either here or in the Bahamas.
Adam Scott's putter has gone back to its old ways lately, but for which he'd have made plenty of appeal at 33/1. Scott did everything but win last year, producing for my money his best golf since 2019, and having skipped the Australian events to prepare for this season, he could feature on a few leaderboards before the majors come around.
Here, his putter will probably hold him back unless he's found something so I'll side with a different major champion in BRIAN HARMAN, who certainly did rediscover his short-game in the Hero last month.
Closing out with the third-best round on Sunday of that event, Harman dropped yet another hint that his game is close and I feel he's been doing that for months now, despite a sad and distressing family accident towards the end of the year.
Harman's season was by no means poor anyway – he could so easily have added The PLAYERS Championship to his Claret Jug – and this is a really good place for him to begin the new year, as it's a course where he can undoubtedly compete with the longer hitters.
Third and fifth in just four past starts at Kapalua, the one visit in-between those top-fives saw him hit it well and putt poorly, while his other was back in 2015 when, as a debutant whose form coming in had been poor, he finished a more-than-respectable 17th.
Anyone who recalls his dazzling Open win from the front will understand the potential Harman has to wedge and putt his way to the top of the leaderboard and having also been fourth in the Sony Open in Hawaii, this is a great spot if his short-game is as sharp as it was in Albany.
Straka set for further improvement
Like Harman, Max Homa was selected on these pages a couple of times at the end of last year and I considered going in again despite a frustrating effort at the Nedbank, where he made a dream start to his title defence but putted horribly thereafter. That club hasn't been as reliable as it once was and he's probably one to watch in the hope that he drops a hint or two and then wins in his beloved California.
JT Poston is accurate, putts the lights out, has progressive course form and won for us a couple of starts ago so he's respected albeit at just an OK price, while there's no denying that Eric Cole has his conditions and although it would seem odd for anyone to make this their first PGA Tour win given the history of the event, he's among the most likely to do just that.
Cole went closest when runner-up to Kirk in the Honda Classic, which SEPP STRAKA had won a year before, and it's the Austrian who I narrowly prefer despite the fact that his putter isn't as reliable as Cole's.
However, Straka is a two-time PGA Tour winner who I felt was doing plenty right towards the end of last year, hence siding with him in the Hero Challenge at almost half the price we're able to take here.
He had two good putting days and two bad ones in the Bahamas but was firmly in the mix for places at least entering the weekend and it could be a nice springboard towards further improvement at Kapalua, where he was 21st on debut then 12th last year.
On both occasions, Straka's iron play ranked among the best in the field but just as encouraging is the fact that he was above-average with the putter, so with conditions again to suit he makes plenty of sense. Hopefully his putter behaves itself for all four days this time.
Four selections was the plan at first glance but I'll end with a fifth on the rank outsider, PETER MALNATI, who just looks worth a sporting dart at prices ranging from 500/1 to 1000/1 depending on where you bet.
There's no doubt his form towards the end of 2024 was abysmal, but this is a player who has been to Kapalua once before and finished sixth, leading the field in strokes-gained approach and putting well.
When firing, that's Malnati's game in a nutshell and having won twice on bermuda greens, including last year to in effect qualify for this, he definitely has the conditions he requires to produce his best golf, with wide fairways and no great demand for power also a positive.
What he doesn't have is any kind of hint that he's ready to do put everything together, but I'm willing to chance him to small stakes following a run of largely narrow missed cuts in the hope that he can somehow start again in January.
Sixth place from one previous start at a course where first-timers generally struggle was a seriously good performance, in fact it was by some way the best golf he produced that year. Maybe, just maybe, he can do it again.
Posted at 1000 GMT on 31/12/24
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