Ben Coley's golf betting tips: The American Express preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: The American Express

1pt e.w. Adam Hadwin at 66/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Daniel Berger at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Mac Meissner at 100/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Michael Kim at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Matt Kuchar at 125/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Adam Schenk at 175/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Carson Young at 200/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

There is no tournament quite like The American Express when it comes to unpredictability, which I'm sure is just what you wanted to read when you decided to open this preview. Four of the last six winners in the California desert were upwards of 100/1, the latest an amateur who held off two Ryder Cup players. Still affectionately known as the Bob Hope by some, finding the winner of this sometimes feels more like No Hope.

But therein lies the fun. There are three Signature Events plus the Phoenix Open this side of The PLAYERS, another tournament where the best players on the PGA Tour gather and then Scottie Scheffler wins. Opportunities to unwrap something far more complicated and, yes, far less predictable, should be embraced – they are fewer than they used to be and fundamental to the appeal of betting on golf.

Following the withdrawal of Xander Schauffele it's now 12/1 the field, a better reflection of the randomness of this three-course shootout where you'll have to go seriously low to win. Even the host venue, Pete Dye's Stadium Course, plays easy under these conditions and 36 holes there won't keep much of a lid on scoring, unless the latest round of renovations are more dramatic than they appear on paper. Given that greens have been made bigger perhaps there will be a few tucked pins, but I doubt it. The AmEx knows what it is.

Those 12/1 favourites are Justin Thomas and Sungjae Im, their last wins at this level having come in the summer of 2022 and the autumn of 2021 respectively. Both have plenty of form here and Thomas is a winner at Dye's Sawgrass Stadium Course, which works as a better form guide than you might assume, but that second win in the PGA Championship was the last time he produced a top-10 putting performance on the PGA Tour.

Im, Sam Burns, Patrick Cantlay and Tom Kim at least have the potential to light up the greens but while more tempted than I should be to follow the latter off a cliff following a sort-of-encouraging but mainly maddening Sony Open, all four can be left alone. I did wonder whether Cantlay's eye-catching final 54 holes in Hawaii might prove the key clue and he'd be my pick of the four as I'd have him favourite. But the fact that he isn't doesn't make him a bet; more likely it reflects the fact that the front two are underpriced.

So, with cards on the table, it's time to take a few chances although I'll start with the most obvious of my selections: ADAM HADWIN.

• CLICK HERE to back Hadwin with Sky Bet

After Nick Taylor won the Sony Open on Sunday, my instinct was to at least ponder whether that might spark something in Hadwin, one of his closest friends on the circuit. Who can forget Hadwin rushing onto the green before being tackled by a security guard seconds after Taylor's long putt to win the Canadian Open?

Taylor has won enough tournaments for us to have some history to study and while far from conclusive, it does at least give us reason to hope. Taylor's first win came right at the end of the year, his second a couple of weeks before the Covid-enforced shutdown, but then he won that Canadian Open in 2023, followed by the Phoenix Open in 2024, both of which preceded better golf from his compatriot.

Hadwin's best result in 2023 came just two starts after Canada, the US Open the only thing separating that second place in the Rocket Mortgage Classic from Taylor's victory. And his second-best result in 2024 came precisely one week after Phoenix, when he closed well for fourth place in an elite field at Riviera.

Who knows the extent to which Taylor's wins played a part and the answer could be not at all, but it's a nice cherry on top of the cake that is his record in this event and the desert in general. Hadwin has five top-six finishes in nine AmEx appearances, across a variety of course rotations. He's shot 59 and has 15 rounds of 66 or better. Each of those top-sixes saw him begin the final round right in the mix and he's started this event among the favourites owing to his record in it.

Combine that record with four top-10s in his last six appearances in the Shriners plus another in Phoenix and you have a desert specialist, playing here at courses which play to his strengths. For good measure, he's been ninth and 13th at Sawgrass over the past three years and almost won the Zurich Classic pairs event at Dye's TPC Louisiana, where Taylor was his partner.

The downside is that he isn't at his best at the moment, but that's seldom stopped him in this and there were some better signs on his return to action in the Sony Open, where he confessed that the Presidents Cup had proven a distraction throughout last year.

"I hope so," he said when asked if he could improve with the disappointment of missing that event behind him. "It was pretty clear that it got to me last year and I didn't play my best golf kind of summer and on to the Playoffs. A bit of a wake-up call, slap in the face to not be there in Canada last year with the boys, and disappointed for sure, but new year and keep grinding away."

Motivated, returning to his favourite stop on the PGA Tour and available at 66/1 generally, Hadwin is a bit of a no-brainer.

I'm afraid so is DANIEL BERGER, who regular readers will know proved a costly enterprise last year as we tried to capitalise on his expected return to form.

• CLICK HERE to back Berger with Sky Bet

In the end though, defeat in that battle came down to a late collapse in his putting in the RSM Classic, three-putting 15, missing from inside 10 feet on 16, just outside on 17, and another chance on 18. He lost by a single shot and, at 80/1, victory would've made it all worthwhile.

Now I find myself inclined to go in again as he's been eased out in the betting following a missed cut in the Sony Open, his first start in six weeks. No doubt I and many others expected a bit more from Berger in Hawaii, but actually his tee-to-green stats were similar to when he finished seventh on his previous visit four years earlier, when he'd been able to blow away cobwebs at Kapalua.

With that hopefully now done, he returns to the AmEx where his record is fine: 12th in 2019, 29th in 2020, 39th when making his comeback last year, along with a missed cut right at the beginning of his career. Certainly there's been enough encouragement, his last 12 rounds all under-par, his tee-to-green numbers at the Stadium Course strong, and a general sense that he can score here when properly prepared.

Perhaps the biggest reason to believe is his record across other Dye courses. Second and fifth at River Highlands, a top-10 early in his career at TPC Louisiana, two more in The PLAYERS, third at Harbour Town, 10th at Crooked Stick and even a strong Ryder Cup at Whistling Straits all mark him down as a specialist, while second in the Honda Classic ticks the Jack Nicklaus box for another of the courses used.

Having contended twice during the FedExFall and generally spoken like someone who is absolutely sure of their route back to the world's top 50, I've certainly not lost faith in Berger. That faith was almost justified in fabulous style in a multi-course shootout two starts ago. Let's try again.

On now to my favourite among seven speculative selections, MICHAEL KIM.

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Having ended last season with a run of 5-30-12-11, Kim shot 73-65 on his return to action at Waialae, which is about as eye-catching as you can get. He blamed one or two lapses in concentration for missing the cut narrowly, the sort of thing which can happen to anyone when they're trying to make the transition back into tour-mode after Christmas.

Last year he was down the field in the Sony before finishing sixth here and having opened with rounds of 65 and 63 at the other two courses used in the rotation, he closed out with a seven-under 65 at the Stadium Course, giving us the full suite. He can score across all three courses and he'd hinted at that before, having been in the mix in 2018 despite a disastrous return to action one week earlier.

Whenever we see signs of promise from Kim from say 2018-2021, it piques my interest as his game was in a bit of a mess back then. He did win in 2018, commandingly too, but that was his sole top 10 and thereafter, things became a real struggle. Only when dropping down to the Korn Ferry Tour in 2022 did things begin to improve and he's played the best golf of his professional career since then.

Once a top amateur and raised a hundred or so miles from here in San Diego, California, Kim knows these courses really well and, as evidenced by that runaway John Deere Classic win, shorter, low-scoring events certainly suit.

Asked about the advantages of his local knowledge last year, he said: "A hundred percent. I grew up in San Diego, so all these West Coast tournaments, and especially these courses, I played a lot of junior golf tournaments here. I even remember some of the shots I hit into them 10, 15 years ago, so it's fun to kind of go back into the memory bank and just remember some of the more stress-free times, I guess."

Buoyed by his Friday performance in Hawaii, and 'legitimately excited for the upcoming weeks', Kim could go really well.

I pondered Brian Campbell, a Korn Ferry Tour graduate who was 25th here during a largely poor previous season on the PGA Tour. He too was raised a couple of hours from La Quinta and I dare say has experience of the courses beyond that encouraging effort. He started well in Hawaii, putts nicely, hits fairways, and there's plenty to like – except the fact he withdrew after a good first round.

More realistic a winner is Ben Griffin but his price hasn't really budged from last week whereas Berger's has. Griffin fared better by making the cut but was down the field in the end and, clearly, doesn't have Berger's ceiling. He loves it here though and having been in good form towards the end of last year, looks a solid option for those looking at top-20 markets, match bets, and fantasy golf.

My next selection though is MAC MEISSNER, preferred to Bud Cauley owing to the fact that while neither could be called reliable on the greens, Meissner could putt well whereas it seems most unlikely that Cauley does. He's a course specialist and that's worthy of respect, but ultimately you're going to have to hole a few to win this.

• CLICK HERE to back Meissner with Sky Bet

Meissner does have that to prove but gained strokes putting last week, as he had when last seen at the ZOZO Championship, and it's not many starts ago that he ranked 11th in the Wyndham. He was just about bang average on the PGA Tour last year and that's enough for me.

Aside from that club and the unknowns surrounding it, there's plenty to like. Meissner hit his irons as well as anyone over the weekend of the Sony and, having been off since October, was more entitled than most to improve as that tournament progressed, which in terms of his ball-striking is pretty much what happened.

This former Walker Cup player, who has a Korn Ferry Tour 59 to his name, is one who quietly improved throughout a debut season which began with a missed cut here. Still, he opened with a round of 65 and that came at the Stadium, where two of the four rounds are played, so there were some positives to draw from it.

Meissner is a player to try to keep on the right side of this year and is narrowly preferred to Cauley and Alex Smalley, the latter a runner-up in the John Deere Classic with three top-30s here and scope to improve, too. Again though, despite some better indications lately I'd be wary of his putter, more so than I would Meissner.

That club has held MATT KUCHAR back at times lately but the veteran has definite spike potential, having led the field twice last year and ranked 29th in strokes-gained putting come the end of the season.

• CLICK HERE to back Kuchar with Sky Bet

Twice a runner-up in this event, I was surprised to see three-figure prices quoted after a solid return in the Sony Open, where he gained strokes through the bag. Kuchar does have a strong record there but it was almost always his second start of the year rather than his first and, aged 46, I thought he showed plenty of promise as he got back to work last week.

We were on Kuchar at the Wyndham, scene of the infamous refusal to finish the final hole when the outcome of the tournament had pretty much been determined, and he was the halfway leader there. It came after third place in the 3M Open and after missing nine cuts in 10 to begin 2024, come the end of it he was playing much, much better.

That context helps excuse a missed cut in this event on his return to action and back in the day, he was a regular contender, twice finishing second to Bill Haas and never finishing worse than 25th between 2009 and 2015. Since then he's only played twice, in 2016 and 2024, and I'm not surprised to see it back on the schedule with access to Signature Events now limited.

Kuchar has the game for this kind of test as a straight driver whose iron play can still be very good. He also has a wealth of Dye form beyond this venue, having won The PLAYERS and at Harbour Town, finished fourth at Crooked Stick, eighth at River Highlands, and bagged two top-10s in as many appearances at Whistling Straits, both in major championships.

Four top-10s at Scottsdale plus two more at Summerlin give us some more desert form and I suppose this boils down to where you feel he is in this, the final chapter of a long career. Based on the golf he played from July through to November, and the hints of promise in last week's 21st, I'd say he's close enough to have a crack at an event like this one.

Max Greyserman was alongside Kuchar when that debacle occurred at the Wyndham and he's looked a winner-in-waiting since last summer. One of the best putters around, he was the first name on my list but he's a 33/1 shot in a wide-open event and I can't pull the trigger at that price. It's just a bit too short and he's a classic example of a player quick to make the list, but quicker to be removed from it.

We'll keep shooting for the moon with ADAM SCHENK and CARSON YOUNG.

• CLICK HERE to back Schenk with Sky Bet

Schenk, truth be told, first came to my attention during a chat with Sam Harrop on Monday. Sam highlighted this quote, from last week's Sony Open: "I told Brett (caddie), I feel like I can win (the AmEx). That golf course probably suits me a little bit more, and the best chance for me to win Palm Springs is to get a little warmup here, and I've been working really hard at my game all off-season, so I felt prepared."

Whether or not you think it should've, there's no way that optimism has been factored into prices and Schenk went on to finish eighth in an event where he previously had an abysmal record. In doing so, he produced his second top-10 putting display in five starts and after a tough summer and autumn, hopefully he's now turned a corner.

His record here doesn't necessarily support his bullishness but 14th in 2020 gives us something to work on and so do three top-six finishes at the low-scoring Deere Run, plus third in the Shriners (where he's generally been good), successive top-25s in strong fields at Scottsdale, and fourth place at the Barracuda Championship when held at a Nicklaus-designed course in Nevada.

If he's in the form he showed last week, Schenk can threaten a maiden win.

As for Young, he placed for us in the shootout in Mexico late last year and while it seems he played well every time he ventures south of the border, it's notable that his other standout performance in 2024 came at the John Deere Classic when fifth.

• CLICK HERE to back Young with Sky Bet

He has some sneaky Dye form via 15th in a strong Travelers field and a top-20 in an equally world-class RBC Heritage, but the simplest clue is the best one: he was 17th in this event last year, shooting 64, 65 and 68 across the three individual courses used, despite making very little at the Stadium Course.

Typically a good putter whose long-game is rock-solid, Young's only real weakness can be his chipping which isn't severely tested across any of these courses. And that aspect of his game was fine last week, when he missed the cut by one after two under-par rounds of 69 on his first start since finishing midfield in the RSM Classic.

Young is no world-beater but, like Schenk, he's a tidy operator, the kind who can find themselves right in the mix for this if the putter warms up.

Those then are my seven, with nods also to Rickie Fowler (putting well and playing tidily when last seen, and is a former PLAYERS champion) and Ryan Gerard. This is just about anyone's to win.

Posted at 1110 GMT on 14/01/25

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