Golf expert Ben Coley came close on the DP World Tour last week and now has five selections for the Steyn City Championship.
Golf betting tips: Steyn City Championship
1.5pts e.w. Shubhankar Sharma at 45/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Santiago Tarrio at 80/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Zander Lombard at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Louis de Jager at 80/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Sean Crocker at 100/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
One look at the betting and the other key information ahead of the Steyn City Championship and you'd be forgiven for thinking this was another of those weeks, where the DP World Tour sets up camp at one course and squeezes two events out of it. We are, after all, playing a Jack Nicklaus design, and the top four from the MyGolfLife Open are right at the top of the betting here, along with Dean Burmester.
Fortunately however it's out with Pecanwood and in with Steyn City, and while they share plenty in common, there are also some key differences which hopefully extend to scoring. Both boast of generous fairways, but where Pecanwood was flat, Steyn City provides more of those trademark Nicklaus elevation changes. And while last week's course was close to a spectacular dam, water was seemingly less of a factor than it could be here, with a river bisecting the two nines and several lakes in play.
In the absence of both TV pictures and reliable strokes-gained data for the MyGolfLife Open, where a clutch of high-class operators ultimately dominated, it is difficult to draw firm conclusions. Clearly, Pablo Larrazabal putted brilliantly, and it's easy to suggest that was the decisive club. But it's also worth saying that in Jordan Smith and Adri Arnaus, both play-off rivals were big, strong drivers and if they went back to Pecanwood again, given how well Ross Fisher and Romain Langasque also played, I'd probably be leaning towards that type of player.
Here, though, the emphasis could be more on the second shot. That's so often true of Nicklaus designs and the combination of rain and width should ensure hitting fairways isn't too much of an issue. And although the scorecard length is similar to Pecanwood, again we've a few things that might tip the scales towards strokes-gained approach as our best guide: hazards and elevation changes should ensure that controlling distance is vital, and it's tricky to do at altitude.
Larrazabal (winner at Leopard Creek), Smith (third at Glendower) and Arnaus (sixth and ninth at Leopard Creek) also boasted strong form in South Africa, already having confirmed themselves capable of dealing with the grass types, climate, altitude and everything else that makes playing here different. It's those such players who offer the best chance of upsetting the home contingent who, while ultimately upstaged at Pecanwood, will surely provide several candidates here.
Pick of them might be George Coetzee but like Langasque he's a fair bit shorter now having shown his hand, so I'll chance a former Joburg Open winner whose iron play is a huge strength when firing.
More Sharma, less drama
That man is SHUBSHANKAR SHARMA, who looks an ideal candidate as a class act, with form at altitude not just here but as far away as Mexico, and one who arrives in great form.
Sharma was a gallant runner-up to Thomas Pieters in January and has made all three cuts since, including when leading at the halfway stage of the Kenya Open last time. There, a third-round 75 proved extremely costly, but he bounced back on Sunday and his game remains in a very good place.
Sharma has three top-five finishes from his last eight starts and generally, it's his approach work which does the damage. Since his last visit to South Africa in December 2020, he's ranked inside the top-10 for strokes-gained approach seven times, including on two of his four starts so far this season.
All told he ranks third among this field for 2022 having been 11th last year and though his putter has let him down on his last two starts, he was the best in the field in Abu Dhabi and is abundantly capable of producing a good week in that department.
With Anirban Lahiri's performance at Sawgrass sure to serve as inspiration – he's 'a great friend' and teammate of Sharma's – and at a course where his occasionally errant driving may not be too much of a hindrance, Sharma, a winner just 15 miles south of here at Randpark, looks a lively each-way player.
JB Hansen also conquered Randpark for his Joburg Open victory back in November 2020, and he's since gone on to win another low-scoring event in Dubai late last year, but he's made a largely unconvincing start to the year and doesn't quite justify inclusion despite the fact this should be a suitable course.
Spanish double in South Africa?
Instead, I'll hope for a Spanish double and stick with SANTIAGO TARRIO, who seemed to hit the ball really well last week and could be a factor if building on that.
Tarrio made a slow start to the year but his long-game was better in Kenya for 26th place, and he again carded four good rounds in the MyGolfLife Open, missing out on a similar finish after a sloppy end to Sunday's round saw him drop a few spots to 35th.
Having been 23rd nearby in the Joburg Open before Christmas and led both the Dimension Data Pro-Am and the Cape Town Open in the past, he has a quietly solid record in South Africa and this likely more demanding test should suit more than an all-guns-blazing shootout.
We've seen already in just a handful of DP World Tour starts that he's capable of quality approach work and while that strokes-gained data really has to be taken with a pinch of salt, he ranked fourth for fairways and sixth in greens at Pecanwood and was likely held back pretty significantly by the putter.
Granted a more demanding test we may just need a slight upturn on the greens to make him a factor and it can't hurt that compatriot Larrazabal led home a strong Spanish challenge there.
Jorge Campillo is unsuited by a shootout and could build on a similar performance to Tarrio's last week, so as a two-time winner at this level merits respect. He's been close to winning low-grade events in South Africa a few times now and one of those two victories came in Morocco, so there's a case to be made for another who is capable if able to stay competitive off the tee.
Home comforts point to each-way plays
However I want to get a couple of South Africans on-side and with last week's selections all short enough, the vote goes to ZANDER LOMBARD and LOUIS DE JAGER.
Lombard might well have won the Joburg Open late last year had it gone the full distance, having closed the gap on Thriston Lawrence early on in round three before weather forced the cancellation of that round.
He took that blow in his stride, seeing the bigger picture after a year of injury struggles, and has since finished third in the Ras al Khaimah Classic, and third again when dropping a level to play in the Cape Town Open.
Proud of another Top 3 finish 💪🏽 #CapeTownOpen
— Zander Lombard (@ZanderLombard) February 20, 2022
Some fine tuning ahead 🧐 pic.twitter.com/mNFJBNMhFc
A couple of disappointing performances have followed but he really didn't do much wrong until the back-nine last week while Muthaiga before that was precisely the kind of tight, restricting course which is always likely to catch him out.
Here at Steyn City, where he's the course record holder, Lombard is well worth another chance as he has stacks of good form in similar events, including two runner-up finishes in the Joburg Open, third in the Alfred Dunhill, seventh in the Tshwane Open and 12th in the SA Open.
His volatility is such that season-long statistics are rarely impressive but he ranked second in approaches in the aforementioned Joburg Open and produced several high-class efforts throughout the year, including on a wide-open course in the Canary Islands.
De Jager meanwhile officially led the strokes-gained approach stats last week and while the specific number is likely off by a good margin, it's probably fair to assume he did hit his irons well. That's very much been de Jager's way over the last couple of years with several high-class tee-to-green displays.
His form in strong South African events lately is strong, he's come closest in a similar Tshwane Open and in Kenya, and if he's ever to win on the DP World Tour it will likely be in a weak tournament on home soil where approach play is king. Having played here in a team event four years ago, de Jager could be ready to break through.
Others of note include in-form Conor Syme, class act Antoine Rozner and the gambled-on Francesco Laporta, but I make no apologies for giving SEAN CROCKER another try.
A player who has had his fitness troubles, Crocker withdrew after a nightmare start to the Kenya Open a fortnight ago having been put up at a standout 66/1. He's since played just two rounds, in last week's event, but missing the cut by a single shot in five-under isn't exactly a concern and he was probably never going to be competitive under such easy conditions. Instead, I'll take the view that we've at least an indication that he's healthy.
Now he gets what I'm really hopeful will be a more difficult test, one where his iron play would be a major weapon if back on-song, and as a South African-born youngster with bags of ability, whose best chance yet came at Leopard Creek and who was a regular threat in better tournaments last season, he has so much upside at the price.
Finally, in another tricky event it's worth noting two South Africans who could outplay their odds. Firstly, Dylan Naidoo is a member here and ranked third in greens last week, when a sloppy finish saw him drop towards the bottom of the pack.
There's been money for him at big prices, presumably because of his course knowledge, but there's nevertheless some temptation to take a chance in the first-round leader market. He's broken 70 in each of his last five openers, twice flirting with the places at a lower level, and there's a hidden line of form as he was seven-under through 13 holes of a tournament which had to be called off due to a waterlogged course.
The second is Louis Albertse, a 25-year-old who is early into his professional career and already has a Sunshine Tour win tucked away. He was 18th at halfway last week after opening 67-67, and before that was fifth heading into the final round of the Mangaung Open, a Sunshine-Challenge Tour co-sanctioned tournament, following a third-round 63.
He's a massive price and that probably reflects his chance but he's been fifth at another Nicklaus design, Serengeti, and double-figure odds about a top-20 finish are worth a look. Nevertheless, last week's event was a reminder that there's no substitute for class and while this may not quite be a repeat, it shouldn't be far off.
Posted at 2000 GMT on 14/03/22
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