Ben Coley's golf betting tips: South African Open preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: South African Open

5pts win Dean Burmester at 11/1 (bet365 - General 10/1)

1.5pts e.w. Sam Bairstow at 40/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Martin Couvra at 66/1 (Betway, Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Deon Germishuys at 70/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Martin Vorster at 175/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Fifteen years ago, the South African Open celebrated its centenary – and it did so in some style. In first place was Ernie Els. In second place was Retief Goosen. In third place was Louis Oosthuizen and just behind him in fourth place was Charl Schwartzel.

That historic renewal wasn't quite the changing of the guard – Oosthuizen had won the Open earlier in the year and Els later went on to take a second Claret Jug for himself – but it wasn't far off, Schwartzel joining his friend in becoming a major champion just a few months later.

Given that Durban Country Club is a historic venue in South African golf, one where Bobby Locke and Gary Player had both won in the past and Els already too, the event couldn't have gone much better. It was a golden period for golf in the Rainbow Nation and the SA Open was some way to celebrate.

Now, we are at another crossroads but for different reasons. Two of the three best South African golfers currently play on the LIV Golf circuit, meaning for the most part they require invitations or to go through qualifying to take part in majors. And while Thriston Lawrence has done his level best to follow Branden Grace in winning multiple times and contending at the highest level, there's been a lack of support for him.

Things though might be changing and in fact, we should be starting the week toasting Aldrich Potgieter's PGA Tour breakthrough at the age of 20. By the end of the week, it's possible that Christo Lamprecht is a Korn Ferry Tour winner, while promising amateur Christiaan Maas was initially priced up at just 50/1 to win this prestigious tournament on a rare trip back from college golf in the USA.

Time will tell what those young players can go on to achieve but right now, it's arguably the best South African golfer in the world who heads the market as he at last gets to defend a title he won impressively in late-2023. DEAN BURMESTER has had little experience defending, doing so just twice despite 13 professional wins, but I doubt it'll cause him much grief and he comes here with a favourite's chance.

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Charl Schwartzel is yet to win the SA Open but that at least ought to guarantee his focus and he has a fabulous course record, while Branden Grace, champion in 2020, was a staying-on second behind Oosthuizen when last he visited Durban in 2014. It's a shame Oosthuizen, the fourth member of the all-South African LIV team, isn't here to join them as he won back-to-back events at Durban and remains a big draw.

Schwartzel ended last year in decent form and has started this one with a couple of reasonable efforts. Grace on the other hand hasn't yet justified a reprieve from his friends in this bonus season for the Stingers but did also play well towards the end of 2024. But it's Burmester who they all have to beat and I'm surprised he's not more like a 7/1 shot in a field which really isn't very good for a title this significant.

Burmester has won three of his last five starts in South Africa, the most recent by seven shots on the Sunshine Tour. That was with a winning total of 28-under and he's made for low-scoring events, so the relatively calm forecast combined with plenty of pre-tournament rain to soften this coastal course are both in his favour.

No, he doesn't have form here, but it's 13 years since he played Durban CC and he's simply a different player, one who has started the LIV Golf season with finishes of fourth and 12th. DataGolf make him the seventh-best player on that circuit right now and his results since joining have been impressively consistent, including a lucrative win at Doral.

I've a slight question mark as to how often he'll be able to reach for the driver, his biggest weapon, but that rain may be a factor and with four par-fives plus a driveable par-four, there are plenty of scoring holes around a course which is very short by modern standards. Difficulty here can vary dramatically according to the weather, but despite recent modifications I can't see this being a real test in the expected conditions.

Indeed the fact that landing areas have been widened, and that some of the most threatening shrubbery that used to line the fairways has been cut back, suggests to me that wind really will be needed to keep a lid on things here. There is some forecast for the weekend but even that isn't significant and Burmester, who won a shootout by the sea in Tenerife in 2021, should be just fine.

Burmester was an 11/1 shot at Leopard Creek late last year and the same sort of price here doesn't make a great deal of sense to me. One, there's no Oosthuizen, no Christiaan Bezuidenhout, no Lawrence, the other three players who made up the top four in the betting. Nor are Tom McKibbin, Erik van Rooyen or Matti Schmid in the field. Two, he really hasn't figured out Leopard Creek yet still found himself in contention.

You could say the same about Durban but so far that's only through lack of opportunities and in the conditions, the player whose last four SA Open results read 4-4-5-1 has to be given the benefit of the doubt. He's been ticking off wins at this level over the past few years and, with these co-sanctioned events so often won by a classy home player, a strong bid for the title is fully expected.

(High) Ceiling Deon? Anyone?

I'd be more inclined to chance Grace than I would Schwartzel, whose desperation to win this has probably cost him at least twice before. We saw how much it meant to Oosthuizen when he finally got his hands on this trophy and every great South African golfer has done so. Schwartzel would be a notable exception were his name to remain missing from it and maybe that'll continue to make things difficult.

In-form Jayden Schaper is yet to win a professional title and fellow youngster Casey Jarvis, who played the SA Amateur here when just 14 years old, might be better value at almost twice the price. However, I prefer the man who won that event, DEON GERMISHUYS.

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Germishuys has in fact won a couple of amateur titles here in the city of Durban but none bigger than in 2018, when he beat a course member in a tight final to get his hands on the trophy. No doubt he'll be relishing this return and the chance to capture a brilliant double.

The timing is fantastic as he produced his best golf of the year to be third last week, his approach play and putter firing, and while he wasn't much of a factor at this course in 2022, he'd missed two cuts in three to begin the year and was still very much finding his way as a professional.

Now far more experienced, I like the fact that he's made the cut in all six SA Open appearances and in two of the last three he's entered the final round inside the top 10. Notably, both of those came at the enormous Blair Atholl, where bigger hitters are at a significant advantage – whether or not they can put their power to use here, what's certain is that nobody will be overwhelmed by the length of the course.

Granted, Germishuys hasn't yet won anything as significant as this as a professional but he has gone close on the DP World Tour and does have two Sunshine Tour titles to his name, both of them captured impressively. I'm very happy to take 66/1 and hope that he can pick up where he left off in Kenya.

Laurie Canter is another former winner of the South African Amateur Championship and is rightly priced as the biggest threat to the favourite, but beyond him there's not a great deal of depth. Jordan Smith was last seen withdrawing after a nightmare opening round in Qatar and Johannes Veerman has missed his last two cuts, which gives you some indication of how far we are from a renewal like that of 2010 given that both these two are very high in the betting.

All this could mean that the best youngsters in South Africa are able to get competitive and MARTIN VORSTER makes more appeal than any of them at the prices.

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Once heralded as 'the future of South African golf' by Oosthuizen, who is something of a mentor to a player who comes from the same part of the country, Vorster is another who played the SA Amateur seven years ago. Although failing to advance to the latter stages, he was T3 in the 36-hole qualifier and fared well here at Durban.

His professional career hadn't really taken off when a hip injury forced him into a break last year, but that seems to have done him the world of good as he contended in two of his first three comeback events and has largely held his form since then.

More recently, Vorster has put together a run of four successive top-20s in events co-sanctioned with the Challenge Tour, including when second to the red-hot Daniel van Tonder. Two starts since have both seen him finish strongly and his game really does look to be in excellent nick, more so than at any stage previously.

A dynamite putter, I expect a lower-scoring SA Open will suit and while he is undeniably inexperienced, and yet to make any kind of impact in one of these bigger tournaments, that's accounted for in prices of 150/1 and bigger. Never before has he arrived in this sort of form and it won't surprise me in the slightest should be thrive by the coast at a course similar to those he grew up playing.

Bairstow to hit them for six?

Kyle Barker is another Sunshine Tour regular who has caught the eye a bit of late but he's 500/1 for a reason, that being he seems well short of this grade. Much more likely is that Jovan Rebula writes a wonderful story by emulating his uncle, Ernie, but while I believe he may well win his first professional title soon, surely it's not going to be in the biggest tournament he's ever played.

Back up the betting, Durban member Brandon Stone will be eager to put on a show at a course he absolutely adores but at a similar price I like the look of SAM BAIRSTOW.

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Runner-up to Potgieter in the Amateur Championship, I'm sure he'll draw a little inspiration from seeing him go so close to winning on the PGA Tour and he looks like he's ready for the next step up himself, having contended several times as a DP World Tour rookie in 2024.

Based on that effort in the Amateur and some form in the Middle East it's not unreasonable to believe that Bairstow might thrive back by the coast and while he grew up in Sheffield, I've played his home course and it's quite fiddly, a description many would give to Durban CC even after the extensive work that has been done to it.

With form figures of 16-32-10 over his last three starts since a quiet opener in Dubai, the left-hander seems to have his game in good shape and those rain-softened fairways feel like a positive for a long driver like him. The fact that he can light up the greens certainly is and with a game not dissimilar to that of Burmester, hopefully benign conditions lead to the sort of low scoring both would enjoy.

Bairstow is still seeking his first top-10 finish as a pro in South Africa but managed one as an amateur and he's been right there at halfway four or five times now. In this shallow field, he looks among the biggest threats to the home players at a nice price, with anything 33/1 and bigger worth taking.

Joost Luiten and Richie Ramsay have dated course form which makes them viable options and they'll not stray far from the centre of the fairway, but I'd have preferred both were tougher conditions anticipated. Luiten was at his absolute best when last playing here, too, whereas right now he's still just a level or two short of that.

Ramsay's compatriot Scott Jamieson won his sole DP World Tour title nearby and could've won here as well so he'll look forward to returning to Durban, but while I can't argue with 70/1 after only his putter let him down last time, nor am I in any rush to put up a player who has found it a massive challenge to win a 72-hole event and validate that shortened, 36-hole one he won more than 12 years ago now.

Durban-born Jonathan Broomhead has played the renovated layout a few times and enjoyed an excellent 2024, winning three times, but he's taken a backwards step lately and JC Ritchie appeals much more after his dominant win here in 2022. Ritchie took a 10-shot lead into the final round back then and returns playing well, though most bookmakers appear to have taken few chances at around 50/1.

My final selection then is MARTIN COUVRA who, like Bairstow, might be egged on a bit by watching Potgieter.

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Couvra won the SA Amateur Stroke Play, the Proudfoot Trophy and the SA Amateur in a history-making run exactly two years ago and best of all, this came at Mount Edgecombe, right here in Durban and just 20 minutes up the road from this week's venue.

The middle of those three titles came after sudden-death with Potgieter so returning to Durban is sure to bring those memories flooding back, particularly after the big South African so nearly won on the PGA Tour at the weekend.

Couvra has three top-10s in six starts since returning to South Africa as a professional and has made all six cuts, beginning with 12th in this event. His latest was his pound-for-pound best, seventh at Leopard Creek, and since then he's added a pair of top-fives in the Middle East.

Last week's return saw him finish a lowly 53rd on his debut in Kenya but Couvra's long-game was good and having won on the Challenge Tour as an amateur, he might just be the best of a fabulous crop of young French golfers. Maybe the next step comes as soon as Sunday.

Posted at 0930 GMT on 24/02/25

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