Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Sony Open preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Sony Open

3pts win Tom Kim at 20/1 (General)

2pts e.w. Maverick McNealy at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

2pts e.w. Sahith Theegala at 35/1 (bet365, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Tom Hoge at 60/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Adam Svensson at 125/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Ben Silverman at 175/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

In an ideal world, the winner of the Sony Open would be found dropping the clearest of hints in The Sentry. These opening tournaments are after all housed on neighbouring islands in Hawaii and while we go from a rollercoaster par 73 to a monorail par 70, there are enough similarities in conditions to believe the evidence before us, evidence which draws an increasingly strong connection from Maui to Oahu.

Hideki Matsuyama was completing the same double as Cameron Smith and Justin Thomas when he danced his way to 35-under last week. Justin Thomas has done it too and while these are high-class players capable of doing anything anywhere, the likes of Chris Kirk and Jimmy Walker have come awfully close to earning their flowers on the so-called Hawaii swing.

Aside from conditions, there isn't much alike between these two courses, but you could argue that neither demands particularly high-class driving. At Kapalua that means hit it and find it, likely among some of the widest fairways on Tour; here at the far shorter Waialae, it often means selecting a club other than driver and straying not too far into the trees which again help to create an entirely different aesthetic.

This however is not an ideal world and seldom is it as simple as picking out a player who arrives buoyed by a strong start to the season. In fact the only recent example is Matsuyama himself, 13th to begin 2022 then putting the lights out to win here at a time when confidence was high. He's won tournaments back-to-back before but 9/1 demands a level of faith in this new putter of his that I just can't muster.

Of course, there's a good chance the winner of the Sony at least played The Sentry. The late Grayson Murray had not and neither had Si Woo Kim and Smith in recent times, but historically we've been best looking to the opening tournament to uncover the winner here in week two. In part that may reflect the shedding of rust, but really it's just a numbers game: 15 of the top 18 in the market this week were at Kapalua, a place where you must meet certain standards of play to gain entry in the first place.

All of which is a roundabout way of saying that yes, that's probably the place to start, but that it doesn't have to be from the top down. Instead, I'll side with someone who climbed from near the bottom up to mid-pack respectability, sticking with SAHITH THEEGALA for another week.

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Theegala was 28/1 to beat some of the best on the PGA Tour last week but now most of them have departed, yet we can take bigger odds. That's because we knew he could perform at Kapalua and don't know that here, but Waialae isn't made for a specific type of player at the exclusion of all others and there are some indications Theegala might enjoy the challenge.

For starters, his form at the RBC Heritage seems particularly encouraging. Second there to Scottie Scheffler this year and fifth behind Matt Fitzpatrick last, the sometimes errant Theegala has found a way to plot a path around those narrow corridors. These aren't anyway near as suffocating, but it's a similarly short, flat, coastal challenge, and most Sony specialists have gone really well at Harbour Town too.

Before all this, Theegala was second at the Travelers, the shortest course on the PGA Tour, and his shot-making lends itself to what you might call a more traditional, often shorter golf course. Certainly, while his driving improved throughout 2024, so far he's been best on courses where that club is not at the front of the list of requirements; where there aren't a range of world-class drivers who can place him on the back foot from the tee shot.

Then there are his hands, that deftness of touch which saw him fall in love with Augusta and which makes him so thrilling to watch at times. No doubt they were a big part of why he contended at Kapalua on his second visit, his first having been humdrum, and so many Sony contenders boast similar ability around the greens. Last year's runner-up Byeong Hun An is a seriously underrated chipper, likewise Matsuyama, likewise Si Woo Kim, Smith's short-game is among the best in the sport, and so is Thomas's until you throw the putter into the equation.

So, Waialae could fit and Theegala has, crucially, played here before. Patton Kizzire and Murray both won after a mediocre first try and Theegala, who made the cut on debut then hit the ball well when recovering from a slow start with a second-round 67 last year, now has six rounds under his belt. Perhaps last year's hiccup on Thursday can be put down to finishing a narrow second the Sunday before but whatever the case, it's not a big excuse we need to find.

Finally, having felt he'd played well enough late in 2024 to be worth a bet in better company last week, the way he went about finishing 36th raises hopes of something much better. Opening with a round of 76 to lose all chance, Theegala went 68-67-66 thereafter and along with Davis duo Cam (Davis) and (Davis) Thompson, he was among the biggest eye-catchers.

Kevin Na had finished in a similar spot with three good rounds in four before winning this title, albeit in reverse, and with second in the RSM Classic another clue as to his potential suitability to Waialae, Theegala simply looks overpriced. Most players who showed a bit of something last week are a good deal shorter now; the only reason Theegala isn't is that he's not yet played his hand in the Sony. Back him to do so.

Maverick can fly higher still

MAVERICK MCNEALY picked up where he'd left off with an excellent performance last week and it's easy to fall for the way he's been talking and the idea that the penny really has dropped.

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McNealy won the RSM Classic in really gutsy fashion in the end and has since spoken about how he believes he can be world-class, because at some stage in his career every part of his game has met that description.

A former world number one amateur, I do wonder whether we're talking about a player who will rapidly climb the ranks now that he's off the mark, in much the same way that Wyndham Clark did. McNealy really does have that kind of potential and while that victory came in a weaker field than this one, I don't want to fall into the trap of feeling the opportunity has passed.

Rewind a year or two and McNealy's issue was his approach play. He's now calling it his strength. And with top-10 tee-to-green performances either side of Christmas, having also ranked inside the top five in greens hit three times in five, it very much does appear that way. Given that he's long off the tee and has always possessed a quality short-game, it looks a lot like the missing piece has been found.

In fact a couple of relatively quiet putting displays by his standards leave plenty of room for improvement and having made all three cuts in the Sony Open, where he was seventh two years ago, he returns now as a massive player. McNealy has kept this event on his schedule for a reason despite a hectic run which features just one week off in the next eight.

For the first time coming into this tournament, McNealy enjoys the benefit of a Hawaii primer, eighth place at Kapalua on debut is exceptional given the extent to which that course rewards experience, and he just has to be of significant interest, not only here but in the events to come in California.

At 40/1 I did consider Taylor Pendrith, 10th last year and a winner since. Like McNealy, he could be set for a big season but it's the latter who has star potential and while the top prices about the Canadian are on the generous side, hand on heart this probably isn't his course; more likely is that he just holed a few putts last year hence a non-threatening share of 10th.

McNealy on the other hand has long thrived on shorter, technical, coastal layouts, hence that RSM Classic breakthrough and a near-miss at Pebble Beach, so two wins in three starts is perfectly possible.

Of the first five in the betting it's TOM KIM I was by far the most tempted by and on balance, with a lot of players here who win very rarely and a favourite who might just be slowly away after four days of foot to the floor, I'm going to include him win-only.

• CLICK HERE to back Kim with Sky Bet

Kim ought to love this sort of test and hit the ball really well on his sole previous start in the Sony, when favourite, only to hole nothing. That came after a field-leading tee-to-green performance at Kapalua to give us some Hawaii form, and he's won on bermuda greens in the Wyndham, at another tree-lined course with Waialae parallels.

It's worth saying that debutants have a horrendous record in this event so anyone playing for the first time is up against it. There are only a handful who you'd otherwise have to consider, the likes of Luke Clanton and Michael Thorbjornsen for instance, but historically at least one visit has been vital. Anyone who struggles on debut, then, can be given the benefit of the doubt, particularly if that struggle was confined to the greens.

Kim is making his seasonal return having failed to qualify for The Sentry but should be a man on a mission after an enormously frustrating 2024 campaign which featured a couple of play-off defeats and some major and Olympics heartache.

His long-game really began to fire towards the end of the year and he really ought to have won the Genesis Championship in his native Korea. Granted small improvements with his putting this year he should soon reestablish himself among the second wave of talent behind the very best in the sport, a process which could well start here. I'd make him second favourite.

No Bergers in January...

Further down the market I'll of course be sick if Daniel Berger wins, having followed him throughout last year. That looked like an expensive pursuit until he hit the front with a few holes to play in the RSM Classic and, ultimately, should've denied McNealy that first win at a massive 80/1. Unfortunately he's now shorter in a much stronger field and, for now, we draw stumps.

Instead, I liked the way TOM HOGE went about finish eighth last week and he's one I could see contending again.

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Hoge was 54th of 58 players in strokes-gained off-the-tee around a big, wide, soft golf course, so the fact that he finished inside the top 10 tells you he did everything else extremely well.

Some of this would be unsurprising – he's a borderline elite iron player – some the opposite, as he's typically struggled with the putter. To that end I thought it was interesting that when speaking after his opening 64, Hoge said the one aspect of his game which felt razor-sharp heading to Hawaii was that club.

If he can keep that running for another week on these smaller, flatter but still bermuda greens, Hoge should find that he can be far more competitive off the tee. Indeed when third here in 2018, he ranked seventh off the tee having been largely accurate, and it's around shorter courses that he is more likely to gain strokes – he did it at places like Colonial, PGA National and River Highlands last year.

To me he looks a really nice type for Waialae yet we get a nice price because his course record is largely poor. Six missed cuts and a share of 41st are only partly offset by that third place and another T12, but dig deeper and there's far more encouragement than at first there may appear.

Hoge has missed cuts while still shooting rounds of 64, 65, 66 and 67 here, often by a narrow margin, and only in 2016 has he performed poorly. For the most part, and typically when arriving for his first start of the year, he's been competitive but just fallen the wrong side of the number, showing flashes of the low scoring he'll need.

A winner on shorter courses by the coast at Pebble Beach, Hoge could contend for a second title.

Canadian duo live outsiders

Ben Griffin has lots in his favour but is very much on the short side whereas Keith Mitchell is dangled at tempting odds but was in poor form when last seen. The latter has an undoubted touch of class and does love it here, but MC-MC-MC-MC was a poor way to end a maddening 2024.

Will Gordon was selected on these pages for the RSM Classic last time and performed respectably while Jacob Bridgeman is a dynamite putter playing under ideal conditions and having a second crack at the Sony. In the first, he putted horribly which is very much not what we should expect of a player who wound up ranking seventh for the season.

Of those mentioned I could see Bridgeman improving significantly on his debut missed cut but I'll sign off with two Canadians, ADAM SVENSSON and BEN SILVERMAN.

• CLICK HERE to back Svensson with Sky Bet

Svensson shot 61 in his very first round at Waialae, contended when seventh on his return to the event, has made both cuts since and added another 64 to his name. It's a great fit for a player whose win came at the RSM Classic and who is at his best on less-than-driver courses, or at least those that cannot be overpowered.

His approach play – and ball-striking in general – was strong throughout last year and while we're going to need much more on the greens, he was better back at Sea Island last time. Both courses there feature bermuda greens and he lit them up when winning a couple of seasons ago.

Svensson definitely has the game to win again if he can solve the putting riddle but the last time he putted to a very high standard was at the Wyndham, again on bermuda greens, and having been based in Florida for a decade or so now perhaps they'll help spark something once more.

If so, this definite course fan would look a big price, twice the odds at which I selected him last year when a decent 30th.

Finally, Silverman is playing some of the best golf of his life having missed just one cut since May and that by a single shot at the aforementioned Wyndham. This came after an excellent season on the Korn Ferry Tour, which included winning in January, on a short course by the coast in the Bahamas.

• CLICK HERE to back Silverman with Sky Bet

He's driving it consistently well and as a good putter whose short-game in general is tidy, a decent week with his irons might be enough to threaten under the right circumstances. That's the one department which would worry backers but we're amply compensated at 175/1 generally.

Silverman was 18th here last year on the back of a lengthy break, faring best of the handful of Korn Ferry Tour graduates who'd all had to wait so long for a game. Not only that but after a third-round 64, Silverman was fourth heading into Sunday, so Waialae looks a good place for him.

Sharper this time having kept playing through to the end of October and then warmed up last week with some money games in Scottsdale, Silverman, another Canadian who is based in Florida, is worth a bet at 125/1 and bigger.

Posted at 1300 GMT on 07/01/25

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