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Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Sony Open preview and best bets
Ben Coley has found 50/1 and 20/1 winners of the Sony Open during the last three seasons – get his selections for the first full-field PGA Tour event of 2023.
Golf betting tips: Sony Open
2pts e.w. Brian Harman at 25/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Cam Davis at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pt e.w. Harris English at 55/1 (William Hill, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. J.T. Poston at 66/1 (Sky Bet, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Robby Shelton at 125/1 (Sky Bet, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
The field full-field event of the PGA Tour season provides a suitable array of questions with no one set of answers, which is just how we like it in golf.
Here at the Sony Open, almost everything is different to last week's Tournament of Champions, from the size of the field and of the course to topography, and even the island itself having swapped Maui for Honolulu. And yet reasonably often things stay the same, at least as far as leaderboards go.
It's easy to argue that form does in fact hold up well between two courses with contrasting aesthetics, and it's true that they don't need to look the same to ask similar questions. Kapalua might be considerably longer, but once the ball has bounded down a hillside it often leaves a wedge, which is also true after a more carefully placed tee-shot here. With similar grasses and weather conditions, one does lead nicely into the next.
Seventeen of the 24 editions of the Sony Open to be played a week after the Tournament of Champions at Kapalua went to one of the outnumbered set who featured in both, and this seems to strengthen the argument that not only are the courses more alike than at first they appear, but that four rounds of rust-shedding are invaluable.
To a large degree that all makes sense, and yet these have generally been the stronger group collectively and that's true this week, where the top nine in the betting tee it up for the second time this year. Just as has often been the case in the past, it's 33/1 and bigger for those who arrive here fresh. How often should we expect one of them to win if they're never the best players?
Remember, Russell Henley ought to have done so last year. It wasn't a lack of match practise which saw Hideki Matsuyama beat him, just, well, class and nerves and the rest of it. Golf, to sum it up in a single word. In 2020 we had a play-off between two who were making their reappearances and my message with regards this particular trend is that the numbers are not as revealing as at first they might seem. I don't think they tell us all that much at all.
Perhaps then the standout fact relating to this long-established event is that Henley, in winning it nine years ago, was the first debutant to triumph since the PGA Tour first came to Waialae in 1965. That's something I do think ought to be factored into calculations, and it's the biggest negative as far as the well-backed favourite goes. Tom Kim is extraordinary and merits a place close to the top of the betting, but inexperience of the terrain has to be a worry.
As far as skill set goes, this isn't a course one can overpower, with driver seldom decisive. Instead it's about what happens after tee-shots have been struck, with some of the finest scramblers and putters in the sport having thrived here, most of them of course also relying on quality iron play. Henley's name slots in nicely along with those of Kevin Na and Cameron Smith and it would've done again, had Matsuyama not enjoyed a career week with the putter.
That club will need to come back to life if BRIAN HARMAN is to win again but that appears likely and he goes down as the best bet among those who did play Kapalua last week.
Cases can be made for Tom Hoge and Corey Conners, the latter putting better here in the past than he has done anywhere, but Harman has operated at a slightly higher level over the past six months and looks ready to land an overdue win, his first in more than five years.
That fact alone demands a level of caution when he's towards the front of the market, but this is not an especially strong renewal and by all measures bar trophies, Harman's chance stacks up with just about anyone's. He's currently inside the world's top 25 and, more importantly, ranks second only to Kim in DataGolf's current world list, a better measure of medium-term form.
All this is because Harman ended last year at the top of his game with back-to-back runner-up finishes, one of them at El Camaleon before repeating it at Sea Island. Unsurprisingly, both these coastal courses correlate well with this one, particularly the home of the Mayakoba Classic: that event has been played 16 times, and five players have managed to do the double with this one.
Harman's accurate game is ideal for Waialae and his approach play has been top-notch for many months now, ever since he finished third behind Will Zalatoris at Southwind. Having barely missed a beat from June onwards, he returned with 16th place in the Tournament of Champions despite a cool putter, and five top-10 putting displays here down the years offer hope that he'll take a big step forward.
His best Sony Open result came in 2018, when he led at halfway and finished fourth, while his next best came in 2016 when 13th. These are the two occasions he's started his year in the Tournament of Champions, so where Harman is concerned at least we've some evidence that he has improved for a run in the past.
If he does that again, there's every reason to expect him to threaten and at 20/1 and bigger he's the most solid option here.
Davis to kickstart big year
Conners opened at a tempting 28/1 but has been trimmed owing to a fine course record and just isn't for me at 22s, with J.J. Spaun a more compelling option at almost twice the price. His poor course record comes with some excuses and his correlating form, which includes third place in Mexico, suggests we might yet see him put everything together, especially as he's playing so well.
But while Spaun fits the bill on some levels, CAM DAVIS is an eminently classier player and he's got to be backed here at 40/1.
Like many, I was really taken with Davis's steady progress throughout 2022, during which he earned a Presidents Cup call-up and stood tall under the gun for Trevor Immelman. Bumping into a red-hot Jordan Spieth in the singles shouldn't be held against him, and the whole experience will have done him the world of good.
Davis blew his chance in the Australian PGA very quickly but recovered well and played some excellent golf across that event and the Australian Open, before capturing the low-key Sandbelt Invitational at the end of the year. That was tangible reward for his efforts and it means he played deep into December, too.
Nice end-of-year win for Cam Davis back home in the Sandbelt Invitational. His career has a pretty straightforward progression to it: win at home, win on KFT, win on PGA, play Presidents Cup. Next is to firmly establish himself in top 50. Think he probably will in 2023. pic.twitter.com/be7hH6o7Vc
— Ben Coley (@BenColeyGolf) December 22, 2022
When leading at halfway on his way to ninth here in 2020, his first PGA Tour top-10, Davis had been on the go until December 22, and last month was his first subsequent return home during what they call the 'off-season'. That has to be a good thing, although it should be noted that absence isn't often an issue and his PGA Tour win came after a month off.
Perhaps he'll be similarly refreshed by a trip Down Under and having played well on two subsequent starts here, he's shown that while not obviously suited to the demands of Waialae, it's a course he enjoys. Davis also has a link to El Camaleon albeit a somewhat tenuous one, as he was the leading individual when Australian won the Eisenhower Trophy there back in 2016.
With his short-game having improved enormously since he first emerged, I suspect Davis will have a really good season and see no reason why it can't begin with a bang. At 40/1 he's a fantastic price, too.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout is another member of that International side who could go well, having done so on debut without his typically sharp short-game helping him much at all. Denny McCarthy is a similarly dynamite putter who didn't really show it here last year and a second-round 64 hinted at what he could do if returning at his best.
However, neither carries quite the upside of HARRIS ENGLISH, who has impeccable course credentials, bags of class and plenty else to recommend him yet can be backed at 50/1 and bigger.
I understand the reluctance to push English further up the market after a difficult, injury-interrupted 2022, but since the new season began he's barely put a foot wrong. Six cuts made in seven, one top 10 and several low rounds look like the completion of the first stage of the comeback, and he should be ready to press on again this year.
Remember, prior to getting injured he featured in a record Ryder Cup win for the United States having won twice in 2021, including over at Kapalua before collecting his fourth PGA Tour title at the Travelers. Each of them in some way corresponds with this, and we know English can be deadly providing driver isn't the be-all and end-all.
That's certainly true of Waialae, hence a fine course record. After a look around on debut he rattled off three top-10 finishes in a row, and even when struggling elsewhere he's tended to show something here, such as when shooting second-round 65s in both 2016 and 2018.
More recently a slow start after his Tournament of Champions heroics is easily forgiven and he responded with rounds of 64, 67 and 67 for a decent mid-pack finish, and he did well to make the cut last year given that he was struggling badly with a hip injury which would keep him out for the following five months.
Now fit and firing again, having also shown encouraging signs in narrowly missing out on the QBE Shootout alongside Matt Kuchar, English deserves a higher position in the market at a course where he can get away with the odd big miss, which had become less frequent anyway towards the end of last year.
At 58th in the world having only narrowly failed to hang on to an all-important top-50 spot which would've secured major invites, English has all the motivation he needs to join Smith and Justin Thomas in completing the Hawaii double.
For most of last week we were served up a reminder of how volatile putting can be a very good thing, and that brings Adam Svensson into focus. He led the field at the RSM Classic and duly won for the first time, whereas upon his return in Hawaii he ranked last by a big margin and finished way down the field.
Should Svensson somehow flick the switch again then he'd be a runner having bagged a top-10 here last year and there's precedent on the roll-of-honour courtesy of Patton Kizzire, who captured this title just three starts after his breakthrough win in the aforementioned Mayakoba.
He's among the biggest priced of those who did play last week but I'll edge further down the betting to find ROBBY SHELTON, who is a bet at three-figure odds.
Shelton is a player I like a lot and, as with McCarthy, he'll know this is one of his better chances early in the year as we're on his favoured bermuda greens.
He produced a quality short-game display for 10th place when last we saw him at the RSM Classic, one of six cuts made from seven starts so far this season, and with his entire game firing he looks sure to enjoy his best season yet on the PGA Tour.
This one-time college star gets better the closer he gets to the green which is the ideal formula for the Sony Open, and he has some positive course experience too having been 25th in 2021. Shelton was in poor form at the time and largely remained that way thereafter, but he hit the ball really well here at Waialae.
Sixth at El Camaleon in 2019 stands out among his better performances at the highest level, again suggesting we're at the right sort of course, and I'll be a bit disappointed if he's not contending at some stage this year under conditions similar to these.
Good friend:
— Monday Q Info (@acaseofthegolf1) September 19, 2022
Last week Robby Shelton finished T21 at the Fortinet. His first Tour event since earning his card back.
This week? He’s caddying for his good friend Jack Maguire at 1st stage of Q-school.
Awesome stuff.
Postman to deliver?
Eric Cole showed some nice signs as he got to grips with life on the PGA Tour in November and has the right sort of game for Waialae, while David Lingmerth's run of 11-8-MC-10 to end the year coupled with some low rounds here earned the Swede a second glance, but the outsider I was most interested in was Harry Higgs.
Playing out of the 126-150 FedEx Cup category, Higgs was overwhelmed to get an invite to play El Camaleon late last year, thanks to a quiet word from his friend Keith Mitchell, and he made it count with a second-round 62 to climb to sixth place at halfway.
Though fading to 32nd, it was another step forward following a hot start in Bermuda a week earlier, and he kept on progressing by opening with rounds of 65 and 63 to lead the RSM Classic. That means he's shot a 62, a 63 and a 64 in his last 10 rounds, sitting inside the top 10 of each event at some stage.
With proven class, form by the coast, a sneaky record here and a streaky putter in the bag, Higgs is the type who could surprise a few at massive odds, but he's probably more a first-round leader bet and is left out after much deliberation.
Billy Horschel described his ball-striking as 'crap' last week and suggested he'd skip the Sony Open to work on some changes but for which he'd have been of some appeal, and I think KH Lee's move up the betting removes all value, so I'll finish with J.T. POSTON.
The second of mine who featured last week, Poston played nicely to finish mid-pack without making as many as he'd expect to as one of the stronger putters on the PGA Tour.
Also one of its shorter hitters, he should find Waialae more to his liking and there's some evidence of that courtesy of hot starts on his last two appearances, plus a solid share of 20th on his second visit when hanging around close to the places all week.
He's played similarly at El Camaleon, carding rounds of 64 and 65 without putting it all together for 72 holes, and the pick of his form elsewhere stacks up nicely: wins in the Wyndham and the John Deere Classic on short, low-scoring courses, third place by the sea at another in the RSM Classic, second in the Barbasol, third in the Sanderson Farms, and so on.
Certainly at his best under conditions like these, he has the game for Waialae even if he's not quite proven it yet. With a pipe-opener behind him and having ended last year in decent form, he's worth a chance to show what he can do around here.
Posted at 1920 GMT on 09/01/23
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