Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Sanderson Farms Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Sanderson Farms Championship

2pts e.w. Denny McCarthy at 28/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Davis Riley at 40/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Trey Mullinax at 45/1 (bet365, Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Davis Thompson at 125/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Robby Shelton at 125/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

0.5pt e.w. Jimmy Walker at 300/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Sam Burns, or a version of Sam Burns, headlines the field for the Sanderson Farms Championship, defending the title he won last year despite the best efforts of his putter. It was victory number two for the talented young American and two more have since followed, which all meant a Presidents Cup debut and in turn the biggest negative that we have to address.

Not only did Sunday's celebrations run long into the night, but Burns would already have been excused were he feeling the pinch. The rookie played all five matches in somewhat curious circumstances: he was the only one of eight players across both sides who never missed a session, but never won a point. Three of his matches went the full 18 holes, the other two 17, which means he played 88 in four days.

He's young and two of his four wins came in the same event meaning he's defended a title already, but surely we have to take him on. That Burns produced a phenomenal putting display in Charlotte and yet still couldn't find a way to secure a full point means that concerns about the state of his long-game would probably have been enough to overlook him even with a week off in between.

With just four other members of the world's top 50 present in Mississippi, where Jackson Country Club offers something for everyone, this is an open event which represents the PGA Tour's second try at getting their season under way. The first came a fortnight ago, in California, and we've therefore a significant change in conditions to deal with, something often reflected in leaderboards here at the SFC.

Last year, seven of the eventual top eight had ties to the southeast including the winner, who hails from Louisiana, and fourth-placed Hayden Buckley at 200/1, born in Tennessee and now living in Florida. Scan the interview transcripts and you can't escape talk of these pure, bermuda greens, which for so many of the rookies make them feel a good deal more comfortable than they ever could at the Fortinet Championship.

I'll come to those later on but there are three players from a small group towards the top of the market who I particularly like, starting with DAVIS RILEY.

• CLICK HERE to back Riley with Sky Bet

Born and raised in Mississippi, this is a proper home game for one of the best young players on the circuit, who most certainly has the potential to be joining Burns at next year's Ryder Cup. His talent has long been known about and we all saw it nice and clear during a fabulous summer run, which included 13th in the US PGA.

Riley's schedule from April through to June, during which time he contended regularly, possibly took its toll after he again impressed in the US Open – but the move north also hurt. He'd been second in Florida, fourth in Louisiana, 13th in Oklahoma, ninth and then fourth in Texas, latterly contending at Colonial where he hit the front on Sunday. Then his putting went to pieces on bentgrass greens for a while, before he returned south and immediately improved, finishing 13th in the Wyndham Championship.

Riley's best two performances since the US Open came in North Carolina and Tennessee and while there have of course been exceptions, times when he's coped just fine under different conditions, it's abundantly clear where he's at his most comfortable. We see that not just in a broad view of his results but in data which reveals he's almost half a stroke better per round on bermuda greens versus poa annua or bentgrass.

So, it's not especially hard to overlook his missed cut at the Fortinet Championship, where he lost six strokes on the greens in two days. It's fair to say that so far in his career, he's shown himself to be one whose bad weeks are spectacularly bad, and whose good weeks are similarly good: hence he went from almost putting his way to the Valspar Championship to making nothing at the Texas Open.

Of course, he'll have to do more than putt to a decent standard if he's to win his first PGA Tour title, but we've seen that he can do that here in Jackson. Back in 2019, making just his second PGA Tour start, he ranked seventh in strokes-gained approach and while that share of 39th is the only positive from three visits so far, he missed the cut on the number last season having been playing poorly in the build-up.

I'd certainly suggest it should be a good course for him as he's been at his best on classical, tree-lined courses which are so commonplace here and in Alabama, where he went to college. And while it's hard to deny that he's been a little quiet of late, that 13th place at the Wyndham is the most comparable recent form line, and came on his course debut in a stronger field than this.

Back when he nearly did the job for us at Colonial, where Burns instead went on to win, he was sent off at about the same price he is here. That field featured not only Burns but world number one Scottie Scheffler, course winner Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Max Homa, Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im, Will Zalatoris and Daniel Berger, so this is not just a drop in grade but a significant one.

I'd expected to have to leave Riley out on account of price, because I envisaged a scenario where he was fighting for second-favouritism behind Burns. That was plainly a misjudgement but I'm adamant he's value at 40/1, as one of the most capable and indeed promising players in this field who now ought to be ready to shine on home soil.

Emiliano Grillo's recent putting improvement makes him a serious player here and I also considered Presidents Cup also-ran Christiaan Bezuidenhout, who did himself proud last week. He's got plenty to play for from 68th in the world rankings, signed off last season with 12th place in high-class company, and has plenty in common with several hot-putting former winners of this event.

Mental fatigue is enough of a worry even if physical fatigue isn't given his workload, and I'll side with another of the best PGA Tour maidens and indeed best putters around, DENNY MCCARTHY.

• CLICK HERE to back McCarthy with Sky Bet

Probably the standout putter on the PGA Tour, in some ways this 29-year-old is a fine advert for data and our improved understanding of how golfers actually go about climbing the ranks. McCarthy is still seeking that first victory despite making everything he looks at some weeks and if he was as good a ball-striker as he is a putter, he'd be world-class.

That digression aside, form figures of MC-7-18-6-17 mark Jackson down as his favourite PGA Tour stop and, despite being born in Maryland, Florida-based McCarthy has spoken of his fondness for bermuda greens and these in particular. He rates them among the very best on tour and his short-game has powered this string of top-20s, without doubt.

Regular readers might then be surprised that I'm selecting him, as I tend towards those with scope for putting improvement, rather than those who are seeking it elsewhere. However one thing we can say for sure is that McCarthy is vastly improved as a golfer, arriving here off by far his best PGA Tour season, and tellingly up at 32nd in DataGolf's world rankings. They have him the third best player in the field.

That improvement travelled with him to California and the Fortinet Championship, where his form figures read MC-MC-MC-MC and yet he finished 25th. This followed on from 20th and 28th across his two FedEx Cup Playoff starts and he was right in the mix at various stages of both the FedEx St. Jude Championship and the BMW Championship that followed it.

He does have a question to answer when it comes to Sundays, having faded with a final-round 71 at the John Deere Classic and with a final-round 73 close to home in the Wells Fargo. That's also the score he shot here in the final round 12 months ago, one he'd started in second place, so while he is a Korn Ferry Tour winner, for now the jury is out at this level.

Again though we come back to experience and improvement. Perhaps now he'll be ready if another chance does come at a course where he'll tee off brimming with confidence, and where all things being equal he should be expected to figure on the leaderboard.

Gary Woodland is almost worth a second chance after his performance on debut at Silverado and there's a case for Presidents Cup reject Adam Hadwin, as there are for potential Ryder Cup hopefuls Sepp Straka and Seamus Power, but my third selection from those at 50/1 or shorter is TREY MULLINAX.

• CLICK HERE to back Mullinax with Sky Bet

Born and raised in Alabama, here's a player who will undoubtedly be glad that the PGA Tour only visits California once before Christmas. So far in his PGA Tour career, Mullinax has seven top-10 finishes, six of them coming across Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Kentucky and Mississippi.

Last year he bagged one here, finishing fourth, his best performance anywhere in well over three years. It came courtesy of a strong tee-to-green display which was complemented by a good putting week, and as he had on his previous visit he excelled off the tee.

Asked if he liked the course and how familiar it felt, Mullinax said: "Yeah, a hundred percent. Growing up in this kind of rough, these greens, I really enjoy them. These greens are, I mean, heck, they're some of the best we play all year, they're top five for sure. They roll so good.

"If you put a good roll on it you're going to have a good chance to make it. So I'm really excited about tomorrow, I think if I can keep the ball in play off the tee like I did the first two days, I think I'll have a really good chance."

Given that he'd only recently been back to Korn Ferry Tour Finals to regain his playing rights, sticking around in the manner that he did as Burns outclassed them all was a fine effort and since then, Mullinax has gone on to become a PGA Tour winner. He did so in Kentucky at the Barbasol, where Jackson specialists Power and JT Poston had fought for the title a year earlier.

That victory really has served as a springboard for a one-time star in the making, as Mullinax went on to be 21st in the Open and then finish fifth and 12th in two Playoff starts, narrowly failing to make it to East Lake. On his return in California, his long-game was right where it had been, but his putting was not.

Rewind back to 2021 and a bad putting performance at the Fortinet resulted in a missed cut, but it made not a jot of difference to him here in Mississippi. With his two other pro wins having come in North Carolina and Florida, this is a proper southern states golfer who has scope to keep on climbing the ladder, starting now.

Rookie looks ready to roll

As with Davis Riley, I was worried that DAVIS THOMPSON would be a Captain Obvious selection and am pleasantly surprised by the prices available.

• CLICK HERE to back Thompson with Sky Bet

Formerly the best amateur in the world, like namesake Riley he's long been touted as a real star in the making and it's no surprise that he gradually figured things out on the Korn Ferry Tour, playing some of the best golf of anyone on that circuit during a hot summer run.

Along the way, he collected his first professional win courtesy of a dominant, front-running display in the Rex Hospital Open, the same North Carolina event that Mullinax has won and played on the kind of country club course that makes so many players of their upbringing feel comfortable.

We'd already seen what he's capable of with 23rd place on his PGA Tour debut in 2019, leading the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green, and several other good efforts throughout 2021. Again it was therefore unsurprising that he shone in his first event as a cardholder, finishing ninth in the Fortinet having done everything well.

With the Korn Ferry Tour somewhat averse to the west coast that was in fact just his second start in California and he's another who should feel far more at home here, having grown up in Alabama and since established himself as one of the collection of young golfers hoping to pick up some hints from the likes of Davis Love at Sea Island in Georgia.

Love plays something of a mentor role out there and after a fine week for him as captain in the Presidents Cup, Thompson is one student who looks capable of continuing his own journey towards events like that with another big performance.

MJ Daffue is based in Texas and finished 12th here in 2020 having come through a Monday qualifier, something he'd made a habit of at the time. He was the best iron player in the field that week but putted poorly and it was clear that this slow burner had the potential to make it to the PGA Tour, which he's now done.

Things got off to a quiet start in California but his ball-striking was excellent there once again and with the change in putting surface at least holding the potential to transform that area, he was one I looked at closely.

Preference though is for the more promising ROBBY SHELTON who has four Korn Ferry Tour wins now and has really come into his own over the last six months.

• CLICK HERE to back Shelton with Sky Bet

Indeed, Shelton's head-to-head with Daffue reads 11-9 in his favour this year despite having been 4-0 and 8-4 down, which tells you what a tear he's been on with two wins and a second place since the middle of June, plus several other solid performances.

Another from Alabama, three of his four pro wins have come in the south along with third place in the Barbasol while still an amateur, so 21st place in the Fortinet is marked up accordingly – especially as he'd only managed 52nd and a missed cut from his previous two visits to Napa.

His record here is only slightly better but he started well with a 68 on debut in the very earliest stages of his career, before returning three years later to defy a poor start and climb from 110th after round one to an eventual 28th.

That and the way he hit the ball suggest he can score at Jackson, as did a second-round 69 in 2020, and he also has an interesting piece of correlating form courtesy of third place in the 3M Open. These two events are not alike in any obvious way but there are plenty of leaderboard ties, not least through Cameron Champ, and Shelton's performance there a couple of summers ago rates his best on the PGA Tour to date.

Whether it works out or not, he has all the tools for this kind of test and is a player I've high hopes for this season. He'll know, as will all of the Korn Ferry Tour graduates, that a strong start can be vital and any progress from the Fortinet would see him threaten the places at three-figure prices.

Ben An's performance out there and his previous third place here catch the eye but having been on him at 125/1 in a far weaker event before that, I can't bring myself to back him at the prices on offer. He was generally below Thompson and Shelton on the Korn Ferry Tour and unlike that duo, he'll have been very comfortable starting off the year so close to where he made a name for himself in college.

Buckley placed for us here last year and could well do it again but my final selection is JIMMY WALKER at 300/1.

• CLICK HERE to back Walker with Sky Bet

Clearly one of the most decorated players in the field – indeed he's one of just six major champions here – Walker's career was all but ended by Lyme disease, and when he put the clubs away following the Texas Open back in April, it seemed to many that he'd called it a day.

Then came a call from the PGA Tour to tell him that due to LIV defections, he had climbed inside the top 50 in career money and could use that season-long exemption should he wish. It's all covered in this story published by Sports Illustrated as Walker weighed up what to do, and took the advice of those he loves.

In the end he chose to give it another go, and after five months away he finished 25th in the Fortinet Championship. Not only that, but Walker led the field in strokes-gained approach for the first time in more than six years, peppering flags having driven the ball pretty well, too.

In fact his stats have something unsettlingly freakish about them and I wouldn't be putting him up at anything less than 200/1. However, in this event last year, Nick Watney almost won having just burned his career exemption, and it might just be that the fire in Walker has been lit once more, now that his Lyme symptoms are under control.

Then we have the course, where he led after round one in 2020 having shot 64, by far his best round of a tough year. "I played it last year and I remember I enjoyed playing it, and I was going to play a bunch in the fall," he said at the time. "I grew up playing bermudagrass greens and bermuda fairways, so it kind of feels like home, and I enjoy country club style golf courses. They've got it in really good shape. It's fun to play."

Walker then came back in 2021 after two months away and shot 70-66 to lie 15th, and he's ranked 12th and seventh in strokes-gained approach across these two visits. This time he's here having shaken off the rust and having made a very big decision – to commit to pursuing his golfing career to its end, whenever that comes.

No doubt he plans to walk away at the end of this season if things don't go to plan, but 25th place in California was an encouraging start. He's surely worth a small bet in hope rather than expectation, at a course where his occasionally wild driving can be overcome. Perhaps he can strike while his irons are hot.

Posted at 0945 BST on 27/09/22

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