Ben Coley is siding with two of last week's selections once more in the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where he also likes the look of Cameron Champ at a big price.
Golf betting tips: Rocket Mortgage Classic
3pts win Collin Morikawa at 18/1 (General)
3pts win Tom Kim at 20/1 (General - 22/1 available in places)
1pt e.w. Taylor Pendrith at 90/1 (bet365, Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Cameron Champ at 150/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Callum Tarren at 200/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
At long last Tony Finau gets to defend a PGA Tour title in the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where last year he made it a quick fire double of low-grade PGA Tour events to complete his rehabilitation from nearly-man to flat-track bully.
Finau didn't defend the Puerto Rico Open because why would you, and he didn't get to defend The Northern Trust, not really, as that event moved from New Jersey to Tennessee and took on a new title. He may not get to defend the Houston Open later this year as that seemingly now exists only for lower-ranked players, and who knows about Mexico 2024 as we await news of any kind of plan.
But over the next month he will get two goes at it, first in Detroit and then in Minnesota, and based on his record in such events, another victory would come as no surprise. In a curious case of the golfs, Finau's sudden ruthless streak which has led to four wins in his last 10 non-designated, Playoff, major or WGC starts, has coincided with a run of underwhelming major performances.
It truly is the puzzle that can never be solved and punters wishing to buy into this impressive strike-rate, who may rightly believe that defending a title won't be an issue for the affable Utah giant, have one big concern: the putter. In seven of his last eight appearances, Finau has putted to a standard which is insurmountable even for him. In the other, he saw off Jon Rahm to win in Mexico.
Not that he is alone in facing questions on the greens. Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, COLLIN MORIKAWA and TOM KIM all do too but there's certainly cause for optimism where Kim is concerned, while Morikawa's price in particular is hard to resist in this significantly weaker field as he seeks to remind us all of his capabilities.
Starting with Morikawa, he shot a second-round 63 to miss the cut by one at the Travelers after a rotten start to the tournament. In carding a score beaten by just one player he shook off Thursday's aberration while also coming alive on the greens, which serves as more encouragement as he attempts to end this 18-month winless run.
Advised at 25/1 in Connecticut and priced as a general 22/1 chance, he's just a hair shorter despite the absence of so many stars, including the top six players in the world, and it seems an oversight. Morikawa continues to look like a winner in waiting and while this course has been vulnerable to bigger hitters in the last couple of years, his precise approach is certainly not undermined in the way it can be in a US Open.
Morikawa can be excused his first round at the Travelers after a week of high expectations back in his hometown at LACC and is better judged on a near-flawless round of golf on Friday. It sets him up well for this course debut and I simply have to give him another chance, with most players half the price they were a week ago and with reason. This is much less competitive with fewer potential champions.
As for Kim, selected at 40/1, he made 22 birdies and an eagle and showed his long-game to be in excellent shape, only to rank 60th around the green and 57th in putting. But for holes 10, 11 and 12, which somehow cost him nine shots, he might've been among those asking questions of Keegan Bradley, and he looks to have found form again.
Kim now returns to the course at which his final-round 63 last year, a course record, earned him PGA Tour membership. From Detroit he went on to win at Sedgefield, another Donald Ross-designed course which requires low scoring, and then again in the Shriners during a fantastic autumn which also saw him make his Presidents Cup debut.
That final round here saw him climb to seventh place despite putting to an average standard and with that sighter behind him, and having offered so much encouragement on golf courses he hadn't seen before over the past fortnight, a big run at this title is expected.
Recent winners of these lower-grade PGA Tour events include Jason Day, Finau, Corey Conners and Justin Rose and it seems likely that the octet at the head of the market throws up our latest champion. None have more compelling claims at the prices than Kim and Morikawa, though another step forward from Thomas or more of the same from Rickie Fowler would make them both major threats, too.
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Taylor made for Detroit
I had this in mind for Ludvig Aberg, the talented Swede who only recently turned professional following a fantastic amateur career. He might enjoy attacking Detroit in the same way several other big-hitters have and it does look a nice opportunity to contend, but he's dipped under 50/1 now and may need to improve his approach work if he's to get off the mark this early on.
It's possible that he gets by without it and certainly Aberg's prodigious driving will be a big asset. We saw as much in 2020, when Bryson DeChambeau and Matt Wolff served up a Winged Foot appetiser, in 2021 when Cam Davis and Joaquin Niemann featured in a three-way play-off, and especially so in 2022 when several of the Tour's best drivers engaged in their own private battle won by Finau.
Certainly I'd favour the biggest of hitters in the search for each-way value and first is last year's runner-up TAYLOR PENDRITH, who may be able to confirm that this golf course sets up very well for him.
Pendrith has struggled for the most part since featuring alongside Kim in the Presidents Cup and his driver is largely to blame, but he was excellent off the tee last year and has shown enough lately, particularly at the PGA Championship then again on Friday, to suggest his game is coming around.
His second-round 66 at River Highlands was built on what he did off the tee and as with Morikawa, missing the cut by one isn't at all off-putting, especially as in his case it was a first go at a golf course which wouldn't necessarily be an ideal fit on paper.
This one might be based on his effort behind Finau and Pendrith explained how comfortable he felt, in his words, 'close to home'. "Me and my wife drove here on Monday, it was like three and a half hours. Pretty close. It feels like a home game," he said.
"I have some family and friends here, lots of Go Canada cheers out there, people were singing the national anthem, so it's pretty cool. I feel very welcomed here and I love the golf course."
Of course it's very reasonable to state that Canada and Detroit are quite far apart but there's little doubt these conditions are similar to those he's used to, and that he will enjoy the support of friends and family once more as he seeks to get back to the form which marked him down as a winner-in-waiting last summer.
It's already been a fantastic year for Canadian golf and Pendrith is capable of adding to it at prices close to 100/1.
Prolific Champ worth chancing
Aberg's compatriot Vincent Norrman may not have totally gone off the boil and is another who I suspect will enjoy this test, but the best outsider must surely be CAMERON CHAMP, for all that we know by now he also carries blowout potential.
Champ's three PGA Tour wins have all come in similar company when able to attack off the tee and that's not really the case at the Travelers, where last week's missed cut made it three in three. There are few worse courses for him on the schedule.
Despite that, Champ hit the ball well enough and broke par in round two, while he was one shot shy of making the cut in Canada previously, another course which worked against him off the tee.
The last time he truly had his conditions, Champ ranked fifth off the tee and hit quality approaches in the Nelson, and that was also the case in Mexico where he gained almost 10 strokes with his ball-striking, chipped poorly, yet still finished eighth behind Finau.
CLUTCH.@Cameron__Champ will have 2 feet to win it after a DART at 18! 👏 pic.twitter.com/bhd6ihlPqz
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 25, 2021
Crucially, that came at a course made for him and one we know he likes, and those positives also apply here in Detroit, where he opened 66-65 to lie second before fading on debut. Champ then returned to drive the ball superbly and finish 12th in 2020 despite arriving late following his Covid-enforced holiday, again emphasising his ability to take this place apart.
While missing the cut in 2021 his form at the time read MC-MC-WD-MC and he'd twice shot 82, then last year he had emerged from another of his slumps with 16th in the 3M Open and went on to finish 20th here as a well-supported 66/1 shot.
With the schedule reordered we can hopefully preempt his latest turnaround and get more than double the price in a lesser field, with another layer of course form folded in. Champ was 16-under for three of his four rounds, Friday's 75 hurting him, and that kind of volatility is what we have to accept.
In return we get an ideal course fit, who knows how to win, who has putted better here than most places. It's a combination I find impossible to turn down.
Timely return to form for Tarren
Gordon Sargent enhanced his tall reputation at the US Open and the world's top-ranked amateur will likely show flashes of brilliance again, while Sam Bennett has been towards the top of a couple of leaderboards already and shouldn't be totally overlooked as he, like Aberg, looks to win early on in his pro career.
Money for Sam Stevens comes as no surprise as this big-hitter looks to bounce back from an excusable missed cut, but my final selection is a back-to-form CALLUM TARREN at around twice the price.
Tarren struck the ball beautifully at times during the Travelers, particularly in round two when the only player in the field to rank inside the top 10 both off the tee and with his approaches, and he was excellent in all departments during a third-round 63 that was overshadowed by Fowler's 60.
Sunday didn't quite go as planned but still this big-hitter drove the ball well and all of this comes on the back of quality driving displays at the Charles Schwab and again in Canada, the confidence gained from a hot-putting top-30 finish at the PGA now showing itself through the bag.
With his approach play also good at Oak Hill and back in that kind of shape at River Highlands, Tarren might be repeating what happened last year when he featured in the US Open and went on to produce some excellent golf to salvage a season which had taken an age to get going.
He now returns to the Rocket Mortgage Classic where a quiet week on the greens restricted him to 20th on debut, where Tarrren had been inside the top 10 after round one and then bounced back from a poor third round to fire a closing 66.
Callum Tarren had a shock at the at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans when he was faced with a more unusual spectator... 🐊 pic.twitter.com/FQsbURf8iF
— Sky Sports Golf (@SkySportsGolf) April 23, 2022
He's since had a look at winning in the RSM Classic, played well behind Finau in Houston, flew through the pack at the Ross-designed Sedgefield in the Wyndham and at another classical golf course in the Sanderson Farms, before enduring a miserable spring which saw him miss nine cuts in succession.
Tarren though ended that sequence at the Wells Fargo, one of four cuts made in five, and as with Champ this ought to suit him far more than the Charles Schwab, Canadian Open and Travelers Championship.
Inside the top 30 in both key driving distance categories this season and an above-average iron player, a good week with the putter from someone who has enough of those might be enough to see Tarren in the mix again.
Davis Thompson returns to a course where he opened with a round of 63 back in 2021, when selected on these pages at a massive price, and he might've made the staking plan but for early support which has seen his odds halved from an opening 300/1.
Thompson's missed cuts lately have all been by the most slender of margins and as a big-hitter who can putt the lights out, he's certainly one who could relish this return to familiar territory in what is a distinctly top-heavy field.
My view is that we're likely in for another fairly obvious winner and those inclined to bet each-way doubles across the tours should consider putting Kim and Morikawa in with Justin Rose and perhaps even Robert MacIntyre at the Belfry.
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Posted at 1200 BST on 27/06/23
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