Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Preview and best bets as Tiger Woods returns in Hero World Challenge

Golf betting tips: Hero World Challenge

3pts e.w. Justin Thomas at 16/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)

2pts e.w. Cameron Young at 20/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Viktor Hovland

Winner in 2021 and 2022. As with most champions needed a few things to fall his way on first occasion, then survived a shocking mistake on the final hole for the second. Returns an improved player rated by DataGolf as the best in the world right now, so was always going to top the betting. Also of note is the fact he played in the DP World Tour Championship – winners of this have generally arrived well-prepared. The man to beat.

Scottie Scheffler

Last seen at the Ryder Cup where he mixed some good golf with that record defeat to Hovland and Aberg. Not the only reason he'll want revenge on the former as he's been runner-up to Hovland on both starts here, including when letting him off the hook 12 months ago. Since then has entered a pit of putting despair and with no strokes-gained data this week, it'll be worth a close eye on how that aspect of his game looks. Potential for rust having not been in action since the beginning of October.

Collin Morikawa

Stormed to victory in the ZOZO Championship, ending a winless run of almost two years. That wasn't the strongest renewal but he couldn't have been any more impressive, putting well and hitting his ball like he usually does. Collapsed when in command on debut here in 2021 (world number one carrot the likely reason) and was in the mix all week in a tougher, windier renewal last year, so the course is a good one even if he lacks the firepower of some. Probably short enough.

Max Homa

Like Morikawa, a recent winner – often a straightforward way to attack this event (Spieth, Hovland, Matsuyama, Rahm and others had all won coming in). Homa's was in South Africa as he demonstrated his fondness for a tough course where driving well and limiting mistakes is key. Despite Torrey Pines win and decent Open effort his form by the coast isn't spectacular and would say conditions here aren't ideal, as suggested by 17th place on debut, but he's at the top of his game after a fine Ryder Cup and that Sun City triumph.

Justin Thomas

Placed on both starts either side of the Ryder Cup, latterly at Sun City. Friends, it turns out he is better at golf than Lucas Glover after all. I know. I too was shocked by this. Anyway, run of fifth-placed finishes here confirms the course suits and while it should be said that his short-game has powered recent improvement, there have been good signs with his approach work, too. Should see this as a big opportunity and hopefully can retain focus playing alongside Tiger Woods on Thursday, something he's well used to.

Matt Fitzpatrick

Suffered a horror start to the DP World Tour Championship after a month off having captured the Dunhill Links in October. Fought back well and long-game was fine, so we can probably write it off with putter to blame. Record here shows 12th and 13th but did close with a 67 last year and in last six starts has had three very good chances to win, so is sharp and in good nick. Not without hope.

Cameron Young

Strong driver who improved with every round on debut, finishing third. Wasn't at his best off the tee that week, either, so could argue that there's scope for better still and, without a win to his name as yet, must surely be motivated enough to arrive well-prepared. Has played twice in the FedEx Fall, both at courses which wouldn't suit as much as this one ought to, and signs of promise within each. Risky given short-game issues and the fact it's been a largely quiet year, but five par-fives make him a tempting proposition.

Rickie Fowler

Former champion here who has always been effective by the coast and has played since the Ryder Cup. They're the two big plusses, along with the fact he's been back close to his best this year, but hard to forget how poorly he performed in Rome. Illness was put forward as an excuse there and a case can be made, with putter largely to blame for a quiet end to the season and a substandard outing in Japan. Chance if they start to drop again.

Tony Finau

Runner-up to Jon Rahm on debut and then defied an opening 79 to finish 10th in 2019, closing with a round of 65. Two more good efforts since demonstrate how good a course this is for a player whose putter, which powered that winning spree last year, has gone missing again. Three months away might've done the trick and while that's guesswork, the price seems fair given how well suited he is to Albany. Can't afford to need 18 holes to shake off the rust, though.

Jordan Spieth

Past champion elsewhere who has barely beaten anyone in his last three appearances here. Eight of his last 12 rounds have been 72 or upwards, including a couple of 76s, so does have a bit to prove on that score. Throw in a couple of poor ball-striking displays prior to a Ryder Cup in which he was hitting it all over Rome and he doesn't make a great deal of appeal in search of a first win over this many top-class opponents for a very long time.

Wyndham Clark

Emerged with credit from Ryder Cup debut despite being edged out in his singles match. Since then has played in Spain and Japan, enjoying his newfound status as major champion, and while not a factor it looks like he's struggled with the putter as sometimes happens when travelling overseas. Back on familiar surfaces that weapon could return and would be a live one on course debut were that to be the case.

Sam Burns

Didn't play as badly as some of his colleagues at the Ryder Cup having been selected following a strong end to the PGA Tour season. Third on debut here, striking the front during round four, and played well for three rounds last year on a course that looks a good fit on paper. Greens certainly should be a plus so he's another who would be of major interest but for the fact he's been absent since Rome. No doubt one or two will defy that negative and he's a possible candidate to do so having at least won after a month off in the past.

Keegan Bradley

Unfortunate not to have made the Ryder Cup side and would've been an asset to that team after a two-win season, including at his beloved Travelers. Solid rather than spectacular since that June win and that comment covers 19th place when defending his ZOZO title, one bad round proving his undoing. Not a factor on debut in this event and would have some doubts around the suitability of the course as he's not great by the coast in general.

Sepp Straka

Putting the lights out at the moment which helped him win the John Deere Classic and finish the season well. Two good DP World Tour efforts either side of the Ryder Cup, where he more than held his own, and as (another) former Honda Classic champion these conditions ought to be somewhat suitable. That was the case when he finished 10th as a late call-up last year, so with a better preparation behind him could go well for all that he's not as powerful as some here.

Jason Day

Back to form in 2023, winning in Texas and finishing second in a major, but quiet finish to the campaign and generally poor bar Hoylake since that victory in May. Will be a source of disappointment to many that he's here rather than at the Australian Open and might regret it if he fails to better 16th place on his sole appearance five years ago.

Brian Harman

Open champion who is a long way down the betting despite having shook off the rust at the RSM Classic, where his usually reliable putter let him down badly. Still, four rounds in the 60s there is a nice enough way to prepare for this first visit to the Bahamas, where as usual he'll have to combat a lack of power. That's not going to be easy at a course like this and might be best hoping for strong winds that would bring his short-game nous to the fore.

Justin Rose

Spent a lot of time in the Bahamas down the years, owning a house nearby, and record in this event reflects that level of comfort as he has three top-fives in his last four visits, plus several seriously low rounds including a closing 62 back in 2015. Concern is that he's been poor since the Ryder Cup, particularly over short putts, but no doubt will have been working hard to resolve that and was good in Rome. His friend Henrik Stenson put local knowledge to use to win here at a biggish price and isn't the worst way to speculate at 33s.

Will Zalatoris

Returns from injury having last been in action in March. Reports from practise have been good and has wisely taken his time having initially pencilled in September for his return. Clearly a big price on ability but beating several of the world's best players seems a big ask, too big in fact, and this is a fact-finding mission for both him and us ahead of a hopefully pain-free 2024.

Lucas Glover

Unfortunate in some ways to miss out on Rome but can anyone really say they're surprised that his putting solution was not permanent, and that he is not in fact now going to spend the rest of his career at a truly elite level? Surely not. Still hitting the ball well and doesn't mind the wind but unless that putter heats up again will struggle to do better than mid-pack, which is where he's finished on his two recent starts.

Tiger Woods

Tournament host and star attraction who has appeared to be moving better lately, though the acid test comes this week. Fourth in this in 2019, his latest appearance at the Hero, but it seems silly to get hung up on those details or to ponder the right price, which is total guesswork. Hopefully he can offer us enough encouragement for whatever lies ahead, and perhaps put together a small schedule in 2024, including something prior to the Masters to have everyone dreaming again. Surely won't win this but it doesn't matter one bit.

Verdict

My first instinct here is to try to look beyond golfers who've not played recently. The two most dramatic examples are of course Will Zalatoris and Tiger Woods, but Tony Finau and Jason Day have been absent since East Lake and several more were last seen at the Ryder Cup, which ended eight weeks ago.

Max Homa defied a break (albeit three weeks shorter) to win the Nedbank but he was the top-ranked player in the field and had been brilliant in Rome. To beat arguably the best player in the world right now and other elite golfers in this select field is a big ask if you've not been playing competitively for months.

Viktor Hovland won the title after breaks of one and three weeks, Henrik Stenson after one. Rickie Fowler had been off for three weeks, Jon Rahm for one, Hideki Matsuyama and Bubba Watson for two. Jordan Spieth had flown in from Australia to win back-to-back events, Graeme McDowell had also played a week earlier, and Zach Johnson had played in November.

As you can see, a recent spin has been imperative and with 10 of this field facing absences longer than four weeks, it seems the sensible way to cut the list of potential winners down to size. Of course the reality is that Scottie Scheffler or Sam Burns or Finau might just defy the break, but it's a definite negative that isn't necessarily factored into prices for the most part.

Everything points to a Hovland hat-trick but I can miss 7/2 winners in fields like this and would rather chance JUSTIN THOMAS, in the hope that playing with Woods isn't a negative.

• CLICK HERE to back Thomas with Sky Bet

It shouldn't be, because Thomas has played with Woods many times before. I won't argue that his head-to-head superiority (14-2) is a plus given Woods' health problems, but shooting an opening 65 alongside him in a US Open has to be, and Thomas dazzled at Riviera in 2019 when opening 65-66, 10 shots better than the tournament host.

More so than any other player in this field, Thomas knows what playing with Woods is all about and this won't be the kind of frenzy we might see elsewhere, so I can't see it as an excuse.

As for Thomas himself, top-fives in his last two starts, including at Sun City where he carded two rounds of 66, is much more like it. He won his Ryder Cup singles point as well and things are looking up ahead of 2024, following the worst slump of his professional career.

Sure to be motivated when others might have checked out for the year, his Albany record is good and features 19 rounds of par or better from just 20 played. We know bermuda greens suit and while his short-game has powered this recent return to form, his long-game appears closer than it has been for a while.

Thomas would surely love to be receiving this trophy from his idol, mentor and now friend Tiger Woods on Sunday night and the circumstances look ideal for that to happen. I'm very happy to make him the best bet at 14/1 and upwards.

Clark, Fitzpatrick and Rose all made the final shortlist but CAMERON YOUNG is readily preferred.

• CLICK HERE to back Young with Sky Bet

Five par-fives is a big plus together with a driveable par-four, all of them playing to the strengths of one of the longest and best drivers in this field.

It's no wonder Young took to Albany last year, finishing third when selected at the same kind of price. The case then is as it is now: those scoring holes, plus the fact that he'd been runner-up in the Open, a performance he added to this summer at Hoylake.

The fact that he went so well despite his best ball-striking can be seen as a positive and while his form in the autumn doesn't leap off the page, he was close to the lead for much of the RSM Classic last time.

Sea Island doesn't look the right course for him but this certainly is and he's entitled to go well once more.

Posted at 1330 GMT on 28/11/23

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