Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Porsche European Open preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Porsche European Open

1.5pts e.w. Sean Crocker at 80/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5, 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Romain Langasque at 55/1 (Boylesports 1/5, 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Lukas Nemecz at 100/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5, 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Green Eagle models itself as one of the best, most pristine golf resorts in Europe, and its North Course is certainly made to host a professional tournament. Stretching beyond 7,600 yards and with five par-fives, it's less eagle, more monster, and always provides a difficult test. Prior to last year's 54-hole renewal, winning scores had been 13-, 11- and 14-under, proof that despite that quintet of par-fives, scoring opportunities are limited.

Marcus Armitage is the defending champion and he very much fits the mould of two of the previous three winners, namely Jordan Smith and Paul Casey. All three of these are what you might term absolute flushers, the type of golfer who is always a good week with the putter away from going close. Armitage found his, and with it a first DP World Tour title. Smith likewise, though the main factor was a helping hand from Alex Levy.

But then there's Richard McEvoy, who famously saw off a slimline Bryson DeChambeau plus Patrick Reed and a host of other challengers for his first and only win at this level four years ago. McEvoy is among the shortest hitters on the circuit and wore the face out of his hybrids that week, a performance reminiscent of Christian Cevaer when he won this very title at the London Club in 2009, despite giving 50 yards to runner-up Alvaro Quiros off every tee.

Was McEvoy just another anomaly? Yes, to some degree, and by no means would I begin the search with those who plot their way round. But there's also something to be learned from his win: five par-fives are all well and good, but when several of them cannot be reached in two by anyone, suddenly they become wedge contests. McEvoy led the field in par-five scoring and he certainly didn't do that by lining up a succession of eagle opportunities.

This is simply a course where you have to grind, you have to manage your game, and you have to avoid disaster. It is a stark contrast to Bernardus last week, where players could reach for driver upon driver without dwelling too much upon the dangers of hyper-aggression, and the main threat was weather-related. We don't have the strokes-gained data which I'm sure would reveal McEvoy made a lot of putts, but we do know he ranked sixth in fairways, eighth in greens and eighth in scrambling. An unrelenting test of execution awaits.

That should be ideal for Tommy Fleetwood, who is playing nicely again and looks to have his approach play back where he needs it. Fleetwood came back from the PGA Tour last autumn to finish runner-up in Italy and hasn't missed a cut on the DP World Tour since defending his Open de France title in 2018, so he could be difficult to keep out of the frame if none the worse for a weekend in the Texas winds which may even prove beneficial.

The only reasons for leaving out the classy Englishman are that he's making his course debut and won't have much time to take a look around, and that he's playing for the fourth week in succession, a run that includes a major championship. It's very rare for him to play more than three and while I wouldn't want to overstate the fatigue factor, nor do I suspect he really wants to be flying over to Germany so close to the US Open.

Instead, with organisers no doubt disappointed that they're without one or two bigger names from the USA who've often played in this in the past, I'll take SEAN CROCKER to underline just why he has the potential to become one of them.

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Crocker isn't a model of consistency and his professional career has met several interruptions because of injuries, but at his best he's one of the very best ball-strikers on the DP World Tour. That was in evidence here last year when he ranked first in strokes-gained off-the-tee, 10th with his approaches and as a result second in strokes-gained tee-to-green, finishing 11th despite putting badly in a 54-hole sprint.

Back in 2017 he also demonstrated a fondness for Green Eagle, when sitting inside the top 20 following each of the first three rounds before fading to 33rd on Sunday. That was just his third tour-level event and Crocker was still a couple of months away from turning professional, so it was a mighty effort in the circumstances.

Without question, given the history of this event and Crocker's own performances here, Green Eagle is a good course – and it's now clear the European Open comes at a good time. Crocker's approach play finally returned to its usual standards in the Soudal Open, a course upon which he can't hit many drivers, and after that he headed to Texas where he finished tied-first in a strong US Open qualifier, earning him a trip to Brookline in two weeks.

That explains his withdrawal from the Dutch Open, which would've been far less to his liking. Green Eagle has much more in common with Albatros, the big, resort-style course in Prague where he was second last summer, triggering a run of excellent performances all based on brilliant approach work.

There's no reason he can't hold his form again and there's in fact every chance we get a quality ball-striking display from one of the very best around. Having putted nicely in Belgium where his friend Sam Horsfield won, and surely again in US Open qualifying, Crocker is fancied to boss the par-fives and give himself another chance to get off the mark.

Those paying attention will have expected Adrian Meronk to feature, but after last week I can't advise backing him at reduced odds. Meronk is seeking to become the first Polish player to win on the DP World Tour and after a string of near-misses, that pressure appears to be weighing heavy, as we saw last Saturday when he took over only to start to wobble.

Positives are plentiful including the fact he fought back to be beaten just a single shot, and among the less obvious ones is the fact he was born in Hamburg. You could argue that should allow him to enjoy this week and might free him up to see things through, but this looks harder to win than the Dutch Open and there's just not quite enough in the price to go through with the months-long plan.

Rasmus Hojgaard did a lot right at Bernardus and would be preferred among the bigger names along with former runner-up MacIntyre, though the latter is going to need to putt a lot better if he's to grab his first fully-fledged win at this level. That's possible of course and though unable to deliver in the British Masters, anything like a decent putting week and he'll be involved.

Schneider best of the home brigade?

We've seen time and again that playing on home soil can be enormously beneficial to some, such as when Pablo Larrazabal and Adri Arnaus both won in Spain, Thorbjorn Olesen won in England (he lives in London), and even when Joost Luiten led after round one last week.

German amateur Allen John almost won this in 2018 and Bernd Ritthammer was ranked 924th in the world when beaten a shot by Casey in 2019, so it's easy to look straight to youngsters like Hurly Long, Yannik Paul and Matti Schmid in the hope that one of them can bring the house down in Hamburg.

I put up Schmid at 1000/1 here last year only for him to struggle as an amateur, but he's come a heck of a long way since and is a serious ball-striker. Long relies a little more on the putter but his form has a stronger look to it, while Paul would've been the pick of the trio but for a nightmare in the Netherlands. Overlook that, and his iron play would make it easy to overlook a poor course record, too.

Marcel Siem plays here a lot and local amateur Anton Albers ought to know his way around, but Marcel Schneider might just be the best of the German challengers given how well he's played recently.

Schneider was seventh here last year when doing everything well and after a slow start to his rookie DP World Tour campaign, he's really beginning to find his stride. That probably coincides with a return to mainland Europe and finishes of 13th in Spain and seventh in Belgium would've had him on the radar even before last week's fourth place in the Netherlands.

Once more we saw his approach play fire, ranking sixth having been seventh in the Soudal Open, and there's no doubt his form has more greater substance than this time last summer. Back then, Schneider had missed his last three cut and generally been hitting the ball poorly, but right now his ball-striking is really solid.

The same is true of LUKAS NEMECZ, whose profile is broadly similar, and he's just about preferred to Schneider at the prices.

• CLICK HERE to back Nemecz with Sky Bet

Nemecz hails from Austria so there will be something familiar about this environment, and he was runner-up in Germany on the Challenge Tour last year. Opportunities at this level have been limited, but he's two-from-two in terms of cuts made and looks another who is capable of raising his game.

Nemecz ranks inside the top 20 for approach play as well as in strokes-gained tee-to-green and all he needs is a good putting week to contend. We know that, because he's had one of them so far this year and finished third in the Ras al Khaimah Championship won by big-hitting Nicolas Hojgaard.

With a game more McEvoy than Hojgaard he will need to improve on the greens but he'll hit a lot of fairways and put himself in good positions, based on everything we've seen since he graduated from the Challenge Tour. Even when missing the cut in the British Masters he was one of the best iron players in the field before ranking 13th in that category in Belgium, and then missing the cut by a single shot last week.

That was solely due to a first-round 77 from which Nemecz responded with a confidence-restoring 67, holing more than his share but, most importantly, getting his long-game into the sort of groove that has seen him go a long way to keeping his card already. He's far from flashy but I think he'll relish this debut at Green Eagle and perhaps he can cause a surprise.

Such a comment could also apply to John Catlin who keeps catching the eye and has obvious upside given three DP World Tour wins. He missed the cut here in 2019 and did so again last week, but his long-game is coming together and he's one to watch with some potentially more suitable courses to come.

Masahiro Kawamura is interesting enough having shown flourishes of top-class ball-striking of late, but despite having a few questions to answer, I can't leave ROMAIN LANGASQUE out now he gets another crack at the sort of test which should suit.

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Difficult, parkland layouts are definitely best for this supreme ball-striker, as we saw when he won at Celtic Manor in 2020. He was the best player in the field over the final 54 holes of the British Masters at the Belfry two starts ago, and last week at Bernardus drove the ball beautifully under conditions which probably aren't ideal despite his Amateur Championship win.

The biggest worry is that Langasque's form here reads MC-MC, but that's certainly helping with the price and isn't worth dwelling on. The first came in 2017, his rookie year and one in which he missed 17 cuts in 28 events. The second came last summer, when his five starts on European soil had failed to produce anything better than 45th as his long-game continued to misfire.

Langasque ranks inside the top 20 in strokes-gained tee-to-green this season and it's only his propensity to shoot himself in the foot which keeps him from fulfilling his potential. At least here we can take a big price relative to his ball-striking ability and as touched upon, my view is that he's considerably better suited to this course than his record so far might suggest.

Posted at 1600 BST on 30/05/22

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