Wyndham Clark is all smiles at Pebble Beach
Wyndham Clark is all smiles at Pebble Beach

Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Pebble Beach Pro-Am round one preview and best bets


Ben Coley has four first-round two-ball selections for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, with defending champion Wyndham Clark among them.

Golf betting tips: Pebble Beach round one

1pt trebles Clark (evs), Novak (evs), Cole (6/5) and Day (4/6) to win their two-balls

1pt four-fold Clark, Novak, Cole and Day to win their two-balls at 13/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook


We were a tad unfortunate not to profit from a multi-course angle at Torrey Pines last week. Wednesday's first-round multiple was on course to return around 12 points for five invested only for Patrick Rodgers to let slip a big lead; then, on Thursday, Eric Cole played his best round yet on the South Course, only to perform abysmally on the Friday. Opposing him for that outlier round is just part and parcel of golf betting.

The same dynamics are in play at Pebble Beach, where the host course shares that duty with Spyglass Hill over the first two rounds. In-play punters should note that when it gets windy, you do not want to be at Pebble Beach, and the difficulty of the slightly more sheltered Spyglass doesn't tend to increase by the same magnitude. With little wind in the forecast, it remains to be seen whether this proves helpful.

But we do still have something important to work with here: the fact that bookmakers simply are not digging through round-by-round scorecards to work out who plays which course best. Players are graded on their overall form and ability combined with their record in this event and the 2019 US Open, but they're not separated according to which of the two courses appears to play to their respective strengths.

Perhaps the best example for round one concerns defending champion WYNDHAM CLARK.

Part of the reason for siding with him in this event last year was that, buried within a seemingly modest tournament record, there was some evidence that he particularly enjoys Pebble Beach. Previous renewals included just 36 holes there; from 2024, that went up to 54 (or at least it was meant to), so players like Clark were bound to benefit.

Famously, he went on to shoot a third-round 60 to take the clubhouse lead and when the final round was abandoned, that was enough for a rather fortuitous victory. One year on, it now goes without saying that Pebble Beach is a course he very much likes and on a per-round basis, nobody in this field has a better record to call upon.

Sahith Theegala has only played three rounds at Pebble Beach but he's about a stroke worse than the field average for them, versus three better in Clark's case. So while Clark hasn't set the world alight lately (although 15th in Hawaii was fine), this two-time California winner ought to be favourite given that his playing partner has also struggled a bit, including with last week's final-round 80.

At Spyglass Hill, there's a case for it being each-of-two. Around Pebble Beach, Clark should be odds-on.

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The same comment applies regarding ANDREW NOVAK versus Justin Lower, where this time we also have some very strong recent form to call upon where Novak was concerned, after he contended to the finish when third last week.

Granted the sample size is small, but throughout a missed cut in 2022 and then 20th in 2023, Novak has shown a liking for Pebble Beach. Without ever putting particularly well, he's gained about a stroke per round and that puts him inside the top third of all players in this top-class field.

Lower has played in the same two renewals with form figures of MC-MC and his Pebble Beach record is really bad: 86th of 90 who've played it at least once, losing four strokes per round. Again this is quite limited evidence and I can't argue for taking it completely at face value (doing so would make Novak more like a 4/7 chance), but given that he also outperformed Lower last week and is for my money a better player, evens is good.

Lucas Glover holds a clear edge over Stephan Jaeger but the latter has undeniably improved a lot over the past 18 months and I'll leave their match alone, while most of the genuine Pebble Beach specialists are playing Spyglass on day one. Hopefully, that gives us an opening come the second round.

My final selection at the host course comes with some trepidation but ERIC COLE is a nice price to beat Harris English.

Who knows how English will perform on the back of that win last week, but what we can be sure of is that his record at Torrey Pines is far superior to his record at Pebble Beach. To a large degree that's because he's putted badly here in the past but still, there's no getting away from the fact he's never looked comfortable.

In two appearances to date, California-born Cole most certainly has. His approach play has been a particular asset into these small greens and his four rounds, in order, read 71-69-68-67. English shot 75-69 last year, 75 on his previous Pebble Beach round in this event, and a pair of 70s way back in 2012.

Over at Spyglass, JJ Spaun would look one to oppose but his form lately is really strong and I'm not overly enthused by Doug Ghim at a shade of odds-against. Ben Griffin might have an edge on Mark Hubbard but again, Hubbard arrives in good nick and these four players are all quite similar, making them very hard to separate even if we zoom in to this course.

The one I can't escape is JASON DAY, who is 4/6 to beat Adam Hadwin and probably ought to be shorter. Nobody who plays Spyglass on Thursday has a superior record there to Day, whereas Hadwin's is about average.

Given that there's already a skill gap together with a current form gap, this course gap makes Day feel more like a 1/2 chance. He's among the second wave of the outright betting for a reason and if the putts begin to drop, certainly seems a viable champion. Expect a strong start.

CLICK HERE to back these selections with Sky Bet

Posted at 1445 GMT on 29/01/25

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