Ben Coley's golf betting tips: MyGolfLife Open preview and best bets
Ben Coley is backing Daniel van Tonder to win for the third time in less than a year as he picks out the best bets for this week's MyGolfLife Open.
Golf betting tips: MyGolfLife Open
1.5pts e.w. Daniel Van Tonder at 40/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1.5pts e.w. George Coetzee at 40/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Wilco Nienaber at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Romain Langasque at 60/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Santiago Tarrio at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
When Bernd Wiesberger qualified for the European Ryder Cup team last September, it's doubtful he expected to be here in South Africa while the world's best are in Florida for The PLAYERS. Instead, Thomas Pieters has emerged as the only top-50 player in the world who does not have a PGA Tour card but gets an invite to Sawgrass, which in itself is a reminder of where pretty much everyone in the sport is trying to get to.
Wiesberger isn't even favourite for a new event on the calendar, the MyGolfLife Open, and that reflects the fact he was disappointing when last seen. Forgive him that (10/1 favourite, missed cut) and this eight-time DP World Tour winner is probably the man to beat, but I'm never one to underestimate the South African challenge on home soil, and can understand why Dean Burmester is just ahead of him in the betting.
One bad round cost Burmester in Kenya, one bad hole doing the damage when runner-up back home in the Dimension-Data before that, so his game is in good order, but the biggest positive may be the course. Pecanwood, one of a handful of Jack Nicklaus designs in the Rainbow nation, comes close to 7,700 yards on the scorecard and even allowing for the fact we're at altitude again, it looks ripe for the bigger hitters.
Four par-fives, one of which tops 600 yards, are a definite plus for those like Burmester, but it's more the fact that fairways appear very generous and this flat course looks there to be bullied. That's been the case in amateur and low-key professional tournaments held here over the last 15 or so years and while Wiesberger is by no means short, those who can genuinely overpower a course might just have the edge.
Still, taking skinny prices at a course we've not actually seen doesn't exactly appeal and with Adri Arnaus just a hair shorter than I'd hoped, it's DANIEL VAN TONDER who gets the vote to win again.
Once a player who looked destined for a solid Sunshine Tour career, since the return of golf following the pandemic in 2020, van Tonder has done nothing but improve and in two years he's tripled the win tally of a decade-old career, adding six titles to the three he'd managed prior to 2020.
First came four wins in six starts from summer onwards, and then in 2021 he managed to cross the divide and win a co-sanctioned event, beating Jazz Janewattananond in a play-off for the Kenya Savannah Classic. Unsurprisingly he failed to make all that much of an impact granted full status to play in Europe, but a return home in December saw him put the icing on the cake with victory in the SA Open.
That came at Sun City, a similarly long course where strong driving is key, and this is van Tonder's game in a nutshell. I doubt therefore Muthaiga was ever going to be ideal and while strokes-gained stats from last week are not to be fully trusted, they offer a good enough indicator to believe than van Tonder (eighth in SG: off the tee) got his driver back on track.
It had been poor to start the year in that department, again coinciding with playing beyond the boundaries of Africa, but now he's right back home he looks like a key contender. Van Tonder has won five of his last 16 starts on SA soil, a remarkable strike-rate at any level, and although most of these came against inferior opponents, he beat some strong competition with a brilliant final round on his last homeland outing.
Given the nature of the course, his prodigious length is going to be a major weapon and having been selected for those wins in Kenya (45/1) and South Africa (40/1), I'm hopeful he can do us one more favour at the same sort of price.
Home comforts could be key
It's worth stressing that the home players are at an advantage, and we've a good example courtesy of the Sunshine-Challenge Tour collaborations to have taken place over recent weeks. JC Ritchie has won two of them and while progressive and capable of establishing himself overseas, the fact is he played 14 Challenge Tour events in Europe last year and his best result was sixth, one of just two top-10s.
Put him in the same company but back home, where altitude, weather, grass and course styles all contrast with events in Prague or the Netherlands or Mallorca, and he is immediately more dangerous. That's in part why eight of the last 11 editions of the Joburg Open, seven of nine Alfred Dunhills, five out of six Tshwane Opens, and 14 of 20 SA Opens have gone to South African players, and usually from the small group of them with full status.
Ashun Wu offered a reminder in Kenya that class counts for plenty and there are a number of international players good enough to overcome the handicap, but my focus is on finding the pick of the home options with GEORGE COETZEE next.
I put Coetzee at the top of a list of eye-catchers written after the fortnight in Ras al Khaimah and this is his first start since, so he was always likely to feature. Odds of 40/1 were a pleasant surprise, too, and that's before digging deeper to find a further source of encouragement.
First and foremost though, a recap of why he made that list. Coetzee has improved with every start this year, missing a short putt to place for us last time, and we know all about his class. It's also notable that he's started to drive the ball consistently well as he's been wild at times during his career, whereas right now he's gaining strokes week-in, week-out.
That plus the fact he's won about one in every 10 starts on home soil over a period of 15 years make for a pretty obvious set of positives, but it's also worth noting his form on Nicklaus layouts, which typically afford the kind of space that allows the best aspects of his game to shine.
Coetzee was second on his only appearance at Gleneagles, second to Henrik Stenson in one of two tries at Serengeti, and bagged two top-10 finishes in three at Lake Malaren, all of which are Nicklaus designs. And as well as being 12th here in 2007, his first notable Sunshine Tour form at the very beginning of his career, he has since won at Simola, another of that small group of Nicklaus courses in the country.
Though disappointing at Randpark and Sun City prior to Christmas, neither course has been especially kind to him and this likely much easier test is far more Coetzee's cup of tea. If he can fire up that putter, a club which has been a real strength for a decade now, he looks set to be a serious player here.
Keenan Davidse and MJ Viljoen, 250/1 and 400/1 respectively, are Sunshine Tour members who are worth considering if you like a speculative bet in this kind of field. Davidse has been fourth and sixth in these co-sanctioned events across the last fortnight, catching the eye in both starts before that, has some Nicklaus form, and was seventh at halfway in the SA Open before fading.
Viljoen meanwhile is perhaps more appealing having bagged four top-10s in his last four appearances across Simola and Serengeti, the latter his come club, and led at halfway last week. This is a sharp rise in grade but he was 12th in the 36-hole Joburg Open before Christmas and could go well along with last week's runner-up Luke Jerling, and the accurate Deon Germishuys.
Nienaber can take golden opportunity
The trouble is it's almost impossible to see one of these non-DP World Tour members winning, unless they get the stroke of fortune which saw Thriston Lawrence do so. Well, almost – WILCO NIENABER is clearly good enough and rates a bet at 50/1 and bigger.
Nienaber is, as will be well known to the sort of people who will read a preview of the MyGolfLife Open, a massively long hitter. Pound-for-pound he's probably the longest on a recognised golf tour along with James Hart du Preez, who is as big as 1000/1 here having been struggling badly of late.
Nienaber though is playing well, with form figures of 3-10-21-25 to begin the year, and unlike so many of his compatriots he's proven at this level. Despite the volatility which comes with his swing speed, he's gone close to winning on the DP World Tour, most notably not too far away from here when beaten by JB Hansen in the Joburg Open but also a couple of times in Spain.
This course should really play to his strengths, and he was in fact third in the 2018 SA Amateur held at Pecanwood. Amateur form is to be taken in context but this was a very strong event with the likes of Ludvig Aberg, Jayden Schaper and Frederic Lacroix among those in behind, and it strengthens the view that his methods are a nice match for the layout.
Already the winner of a very good Sunshine Tour event, this is a big opportunity for a player who doesn't have full status on the DP World Tour but is plainly good enough to kick on should he secure it. Nienaber knows that winning over the next fortnight is the difference between playing Challenge Tour golf all year, or getting right amongst it on the main tour.
Brandon Stone is another with some amateur experience here and he's always respected under these conditions, even if his missed cut a fortnight ago was disappointing. Jacques Kruyswijk meanwhile hit a lot of greens last week, is another with power at his disposal, and returning to South Africa is bound to help.
However, I can't resist giving ROMAIN LANGASQUE (yet) another chance and he's next.
The Frenchman missed both cuts at Al Hamra, having been selected here at 28/1 and 35/1, and it would be fair to say he's burned some bridges over the last few months. Indeed there will be many who scroll past this case, having read something similar before.
However, his approach play really was brilliant in the second of those two events – the best in the field, in fact, and on track to be his career-best had he played two more rounds and maintained it. Likely that would not have been the case, nevertheless we can say he struck his approaches even better than when leading the field in a Rolex Series event featuring Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa to start the year.
Unfortunately, he made a couple of costly driving mistakes at a course with waste areas and water awaiting such shots. But a week earlier, he'd actually been one of the three best drivers in the field to halfway, this time let down by two holes upon which his short-game became a very bad, very unfunny joke. Otherwise, he played well across the fortnight and that's without making a putt of note.
But his putting, you see, had been good in Dubai, the second of two top-20 finishes to begin the season, both in far better company than this. Indeed, only two players in this field beat him in Abu Dhabi, and six in Dubai. Had this event taken place after that fortnight, he'd have been up with Jordan Smith, Arnaus and company and half the price he is now. We know that, because he was in Ras.
All of which is to say that he remains very close to doing something very good, and given that he boasts a strong record in South Africa, including second place to Louis Oosthuizen in an SA Open, it could well happen here. Above all else though, his price has been eased accordingly and we don't have to go mad to find out if he can put everything together. He'd have been left out at 25s, but not at 50/1 and bigger.
Santiago looks to be warming up
With that out of my system, Jason Scrivener is hard to ignore as another in my eye-catchers piece. He was born in South Africa and, as noted, when he gets hot tends to maintain it, meaning ninth place last time was probably a decent clue. However, this just doesn't look the course for him so I'll sign off with SANTIAGO TARRIO at 100/1.
One of the stars of the 2021 Challenge Tour season, Tarrio contended in a couple of DP World Tour events along the way and after a stuttering start to this year, he produced four good rounds for 26th place in Nairobi.
He'll need to improve again as this is stronger but strokes-gained numbers indicate his long-game was the driving force behind the upturn and I like the fact he's played so well in South Africa, making six of seven cuts, leading the Di-Data at halfway in 2020, and leading in Cape Town through 54 holes last year.
Indeed Tarrio's best performance so far in his rookie campaign was 23rd in Joburg and with his ball-striking having progressed from one week to the next so far this year, I'm willing to risk an ugly but sometimes effective putting stroke doing the business.
Posted at 0905 GMT on 08/03/22
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