After his headline selection won last week, Ben Coley is backing Antoine Rozner to defend his title in the Mauritius Open.
Golf betting tips: Mauritius Open
3pts e.w. Antoine Rozner at 18/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
2pts e.w. Renato Paratore at 33/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Andrea Pavan at 70/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Alex Levy at 80/1 (Sky Bet, Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Jeong Weon Ko at 100/1 (Sky Bet, Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Mauritius is a small island, and there aren't many golf courses on it – but somehow the Mauritius Open keeps finding somewhere new to go, with La Réserve Golf Links taking over from Mont Choisy for the final event of the year on the DP World Tour.
Designed by Peter Matkovich in partnership with former Open champion Louis Oosthuizen, La Réserve is described as a contemporary links and it looks an absolute treat, with pot bunkers and infinity greens representing a significant shift from the last three weeks spent in South Africa.
Oosthuizen is a 13/2 chance to double up after finally capturing the Alfred Dunhill Championship thanks to an almost faultless weekend, that is until he threatened to give it all away down the final two holes. Given that the event concluded on Monday and far more dramatically than was necessary, there's certainly an argument that he might not be at his best having achieved something he'd been after for a very long time.
Then again, this is the effortless and sometimes apparently carefree golfer who won in Malaysia the week after he lost a Masters play-off and contended in Sweden days after capturing the Open, so with course knowledge that few of his rivals have, single-figure prices are absolutely merited.
The other player here who knows La Réserve well is course ambassador Marcel Siem, but like Matthieu Pavon he's been out since the DP World Tour Championship and that's a small worry. More of an issue are their respective prices, though, and my view is that ANTOINE ROZNER is by a good margin the biggest threat to the favourite.
Rozner won this title a year ago when selected on these pages and he probably should've won it in 2019 when also selected on these pages, making five at the last when a four would've landed us a 100/1 winner.
The case back then, repeated on his return to the island, called upon his only previous Mauritius Open start, which resulted in seventh place when playing on an invite. That means that across three courses, each similarly exposed but varying in difficulty, Rozner has form figures of 7-2-1 in the event.
And that's a wrap from the AfrAsia Bank Mauritius Open, hosted by Mont Choisy Le Golf.
— AfrAsia Bank Mauritius Open (@AfrAsiaMRUOpen) December 18, 2022
Congratulations to our champion, Antoine Rozner.
Alles les bleus! 🇫🇷 pic.twitter.com/zqxaAdNVOH
And while his talent and how good he is in a breeze are bigger factors, the fact that he's French is certainly another. Mauritius was once known as Isle de France and the language, Mauritian Creole, is French-based. No wonder so many French professionals are ambassadors for golf courses in this home away from home.
Rozner touched upon that himself both in 2019 and again last year and while the change in course can be considered a small negative, on the other hand he's prepared better than last year, when he'd missed the cut at Leopard Creek. This time, he returns having been 15th, his standout performance to date at that course.
With all three DP World Tour wins having come under exposed conditions, and having been playing well since a minor blip in September, Rozner looks to hold every chance. He contended when defending for the first time, eventually finishing fourth, and by improving his position after each round last week looks to have prepared perfectly.
Jayden Schaper won in Mauritius as an amateur and holds strong each-way claims once more, but the rest of the market leaders are all easy to oppose. Sebastian Soderberg is another who makes his seasonal debut, Louis de Jager elected not to come back to the course on Monday, and Laurie Canter has to recover from missing a five-foot putt worth at least a couple of million dollars at the weekend.
With winning form pretty sparse this is a weak field beyond the first four or five names and the only other two at shortish prices who appealed were Dylan Frittelli and RENATO PARATORE, with the latter preferred.
Frittelli has managed two top-20s in three starts since an eye-catching step forward in round two of the RSM Classic, and he's a former winner next door to La Réserve, so his chance is obvious.
However, Paratore followed second place in the SA Open with 20th at Leopard Creek, despite taking seven at the final hole, and has made an excellent start to the season having regained full status at Qualifying School last month.
Renato Paratore doesn't mess about 💨
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) July 25, 2020
He's one of the fastest players on Tour.#BetfredBritishMasters #GolfForGood pic.twitter.com/jvMzxfkiCV
The Italian, who turns 27 on Thursday, looks right back to his best and though frustrated no doubt by his finish on Monday, he'll refocus without any issues. This is the final event of the DP World Tour's Opening Swing and if Paratore were to win it, he'd qualify for the Dubai Desert Classic, which is where he's based himself during winter for some years now. He'll be desperate to make it and this is his best chance.
He has fond memories of this event, too, sharing second with Rozner in 2019, and as a two-time winner including under exposed conditions in Sweden, the new course shouldn't be an excuse. In fact it might help as while there's not a lot of wind in the forecast, this course is so vulnerable to any breeze that the short-game skills of Paratore are bound to be an asset.
Wide fairways are a definite positive given that his wildness off the tee is always the number one concern, and he looks one of the likeliest winners. Anything 25/1 and bigger is worth taking.
Pavan another go
Matthew Baldwin broke through on a links-style course in the spring and is respected along with Daan Huizing, whose form on exposed courses since the middle of summer is among the best here. A former St Andrews and Lytham Trophy winner, Huizing is good enough to win something like this and would've been of interest had the forecast suggested more in the way of wind.
As it is, La Réserve may not be as fearsome as it surely can be and with those wide fairways in mind, Paratore's compatriot ANDREA PAVAN keeps his place in the staking plan.
Pavan threatened the places at 200/1 last week, in much stronger company, and in doing so extended his run of top-20s to 10 in his last 11 starts, the other a missed cut on the number on his first start back from a break in Joburg.
It's been a comeback year for the two-time DP World Tour winner, whose driving yips had looked certain to ruin his career, and while that club will never be a strength he's managed to limit those ruinous mistakes that made for some embarrassing scores.
Last week's double-bogey towards the end of round three likely came about because of a bad drive and it's always going to be the risk, but his iron play and putting are excellent and those skills look more relevant to this week's challenge.
Paratore has been 20th and 27th in two starts in this event but what I like most is some of his form in Scotland, including a pair of top-10s in the Dunhill Links and fourth at The Renaissance. He's shot 63 at Kingsbarns, which Siem specifically referenced when describing this course.
With those two Italians on-side it's back to the French contingent next. Remember, Rozner and Julien Brun played in the final group last year and their other nine compatriots all made the cut, four of them contending for the very first time at DP World Tour level. Comfort can count for a heck of a lot in this game.
JEONG WEON KO was best of the rest in fourth and while a bit disappointing at Leopard Creek last week, I felt he showed plenty of promise in the South African Open before that.
Ko has bags of ability and is a real powerhouse, which suggests to me that calm conditions will suit him. He has bits and pieces of exposed-course form, too, not least that top-five at Mount Choisy but also 10th in the Korea Championship, played in a consistent breeze.
Jeong weon Ko throwing darts 🎯#EDAM2023 pic.twitter.com/v78nlaRtyU
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) October 21, 2023
Fourth place in the 2022 Challenge Tour Grand Final is a form line I like given the nature of Alcanada and having bravely saved his card in Spain two months ago, he's a player I think we might hear a good deal more of this year. At the prices, I'll take on board the fact he did make some big numbers last week.
Final French fancy
Martin Couvra also played well at Blair Atholl a fortnight ago and has flown back out to Mauritius on an invite. He turned professional after winning on the Challenge Tour in September and it could be a big help to have the experienced Tom Ayling on his bag, caddie for many a French professional in the past, plus Rasmus Hojgaard more recently.
Couvra is still very inexperienced though and I don't love 125/1, a comment which also applies to the equally promising Tom Vaillant, so ALEX LEVY is preferred.
Levy was eighth in the Australian Open a fortnight ago and did well to finish 32nd at Leopard Creek last week, where he didn't do a whole lot wrong and is entitled to have been a little jaded by the travel.
Prior to this he'd played OK at Qualifying School following a slow start and there have been some good signs from the five-time champion throughout the year, most notably when contending on the PGA Tour in July.
Like Pavan, he has some Scottish links form and there's encouragement to be drawn from fourth at Al Mouj and fifth at Royal Greens, two particularly exposed courses in the Middle East, so I think he might have chosen the right time to come over to Mauritius and give this event a try.
Four rounds of par or better at a place like Leopard Creek should really encourage Levy and at 66/1 and upwards, his class is preferred to the potential of some young compatriots. One way or another, expect that French flag to fly high again in Mauritius.
Posted at 2000 GMT on 11/12/23
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