In his final preview of another profitable year, golf expert Ben Coley sides with a trio of Frenchmen among four selections for the Mauritius Open.
Golf betting tips: Mauritius Open
3pts e.w. Antoine Rozner at 18/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
2pts e.w. Renato Paratore at 35/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Julien Brun at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1.5pts e.w. Matthieu Pavon at 50/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
The DP World Tour has managed to cram 48 events into 2022 and the last of them comes in the shape of the Mauritius Open, returning to the schedule for the first time in three years.
For tournament favourites Thomas Detry and Dean Burmester, plus 18/1 chance ANTOINE ROZNER, the fact that it's moved to Mont Choisy Le Golf is probably no bad thing. Detry and Rozner will both feel they should've won a title which went instead to Rasmus Hojgaard back in 2019, while Burmester is an ambassador for this venue, one who has walked the walk as well as talking the talk by spending plenty of time here.
After another good performance at Leopard Creek, historically not a course he's enjoyed, and with a Masters place up for grabs, Burmester might be the one to beat. The trouble is he's just got a bit of a habit of playing well without winning and the same of course goes for Detry, who I've high hopes for in 2023. Victory for either would be no surprise, nor would it be something to regret at 6/1 apiece.
Rozner on the other hand is a two-time DP World Tour champion who made a habit of winning during his sole Challenge Tour campaign, and with a Hero Cup place potentially up for grabs, not to mention a far superior strike-rate to anyone else in the field, he looks worth backing to gain redemption for that near-miss last time he came to Mauritius.
Part of the case for putting him up at 100/1 back then was that he'd played the event on an invite once before and finished seventh, and that as a Frenchman he ought to find comfort on the island. In each of the last three renewals, three Frenchmen have finished in the top 10, while before that French-speaking Nicolas Colsaerts was bang in the mix at a course he knew well.
So many of the French contingent are attached to clubs in Mauritius, an island where French-based Mauritian Creole is the language of the vast majority of the population, and I suspect we'll see a number of them in the mix again, including Rozner.
One of the form players of the last four months, Rozner's missed cut last week doesn't worry me at all. It came by a single shot on his return from a month off, and when last he missed the cut on the number on the DP World Tour, he was third the following week.
As for coping with the switch in golf course, I suspect we're looking at a similar test, with resort conditions allowing for low scoring providing the wind doesn't blow too strong. At the moment it is forecast to play a part which will help Rozner, a fabulous ball-striker who defied a strong wind to capture his second title in Qatar, and so often the Middle East helps to unravel island events like this one.
Italian stallion primed to contend
One form line we do have comes from the 2019 All Africa Team Championship, where Jayden Schaper topped the individual leaderboard as South Africa stamped their class upon the event.
I was hoping that might have been missed but Schaper is in here at 22/1 and for all his undoubted potential, plus a solid run of results at home in South Africa, that doesn't look like much of a price at all to me.
Instead, the proven credentials of RENATO PARATORE are much preferred.
Paratore was also part of the play-off won by Hojgaard in 2019, his first start in Mauritius, and it came when in very similar form. Just as was the case then, he arrives on the back of a top-20 finish in South Africa, this time having dominated a Tuesday qualifier to earn his place in the field before playing so well at Blair Atholl.
The Italian is having to go to such lengths to get starts after he came up one shot shy of retaining full status last season, before suffering the same fate at Qualifying School, but since third place in the Cazoo Open in August, he's played like a member of the DP World Tour's top 50, rather than someone struggling to make what was in the end the top 117.
Renato Paratore had to go to Monday Qualifying for the SA Open because he took one shot too many in Portugal a few weeks ago and then one shot too many at Q School. No bother - shoots 9-under 63 to boss his qualifier by five shots. @acaseofthegolf1
— Ben Coley (@BenColeyGolf) November 29, 2022
It's onwards and upwards then and having missed Leopard Creek, he'll arrive here refreshed and determined, knowing that the only way to improve his category for 2023 is by winning. He might also have half an eye on the Hero Cup such is the strength of his form, the final place on the European team set to be handed out after this event, and he'd love to join his former housemate Guido Migliozzi out in Abu Dhabi.
Paratore of course will be desperate to launch a late bid for Ryder Cup consideration given that it takes place in his home city of Rome and while not on anyone's radar right now, it's not out of the realms of possibility – but he will need to be playing Rolex Series events. Again, to do so requires a win, and there will be few here in Mauritius who arrive as hungry as he is.
He's a good wind player with top-10s in Doha and at the Dunhill Links, and a shorter course where driver isn't likely to be everything can only help, just as his dynamite short-game ought to. Paratore's driving has improved and been a key part of his return to form, but it's never likely to be is main weapon and perhaps that's why so much of his best golf comes on more technical courses, despite his power.
Ultimately he just looks in fantastic nick, and this is easier than his two previous starts this season. Given that he's a two-time winner who only turns 26 on Wednesday, Paratore deserves more respect in a field like this one.
Fresh Frenchman underestimated at 40s
Speaking of birthdays, Tom McKibbin could celebrate turning 20 with his breakthrough and certainly merits consideration after a run of top-20s, but I'll return to the French angle to side with JULIEN BRUN.
Fourth in this field in strokes-gained total last season, with Detry and Burmester only just in front of him, Brun enjoyed a fine rookie campaign which began in earnest when he got in the mix in Abu Dhabi, a Rolex Series event played by the sea and in a stiff breeze.
That's encouraging when it comes to his potential suitability for this and it also helps allay fears over the fact we've not seen him since the Portugal Masters, as the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship came two months after his previous start in Johannesburg.
Providing he is ready to go, we're talking about a player who has made nine of his last 10 cuts in Europe, and who should be ideally suited to a course I doubt will demand driver upon driver. Brun's weakness is what he does off the tee, as he's neither long nor especially accurate, but everything else is high-quality: he ended the season ranked 28th in strokes-gained approach, 35th around the green, and 18th in putting.
Like Rozner, he once received an invite to play this event having been an ambassador for Anahita, and while finishing down the field he undeniably overachieved in making the cut, as he was 1103rd in the world at the time. Now inside the top 250, he's a player I think we'll see threaten a maiden DP World Tour victory over the next six months and it could very well come here.
Louis de Jager is the only other player who bettered Brun in those SG: total stats but there are caveats involved and while tempting to overlook a missed cut at Leopard Creek, a course he doesn't enjoy, I'm not sure he's one to be getting excited about at 40/1.
Instead, another French maiden completes the staking plan in the shape of MATTHIEU PAVON.
It's undeniably true that Pavon has gone off the boil since ninth place at Wentworth and then finishing runner-up to Jon Rahm in the Open de Espana, but there's not been a great deal to worry about and a return to form looks to be on the cards.
Last week he shot 76-68 to miss the cut by one at Leopard Creek and that's just fine by me, as the latter goes down as his best round at a course he's not yet cracked, and it was a performance which screamed pipe-opener with this week in mind.
Pavon loves this part of the world, having spent the 2021 off-season next door on Reunion and become an ambassador for Anahita back in the spring. That means he was in Mauritius a couple of weeks ago warming up for these two events and it's the second one he'll have had an eye on, given that he's played in it three times and finished fifth, second and 17th.
Le Tour des Bleus 🌍🇫🇷
— Fédération française de golf (@ffgolf) October 10, 2022
▪️ Open d'Espagne (DPWT) : @mattpavon 2e 🥈
▪ British Challenge (CT) : @Saddier_Adrien 4e 👏
▪ LPGA Tour : @celineboutier 8e 💪
▪️ Alps Tour : Julien Sale 3e et Tom Vaillant 4e 🇫🇷
▪️ Letas : Astrid Vayson de Pradenne 5e 😀#ffgolf #golf pic.twitter.com/Rwfpg2k3ni
Comfort levels are a big part of that I suspect, but so is the fact he's at his best on exposed courses. Pavon has been second at Dom Pedro as well as here, third in a Scottish Open and at both Al Mouj and Al Hamra, sixth in the Nordea Masters and 10th behind Russell Knox at Ballyliffin, so there's every indication he'll take well to Mont Choisy Le Golf.
Among those listed it's Al Mouj, former home of the Oman Open as well as a Challenge Tour event before that, which has been a particularly good pointer to both courses previously used for this event. Kurt Kitayama went on to win there and several more have played well in both, which did lead me to consider in-form Ricardo Gouveia, who says he's close to his very best despite losing his card.
Kitayama and Hojgaard were both Qualifying School graduates and the likes of Gary Hurley, Joshua Lee and Joel Stalter all merit respect at fancy prices from this year's class, with former Walker Cup winner Hurley of particular interest at a standout 250/1 following back-to-back cuts made in South Africa, but Lee not dismissed either as one we're still learning about.
Other French players of note must include last week's contender David Ravetto plus the wildly inconsistent Pierre Pineau, whose win in Portugal could be a nice guide, and who was 10th behind Adrian Meronk in Australia last time out. He's probably the value angle among the Challenge Tour graduates but you do have to accept that he has shown a propensity to allow the wheels to come off.
Finally, watch out for OJ Farrell, who I think might just take the Challenge Tour by storm next year. He only just missed out bypassing it via Qualifying School but it could be a good thing to spend another year on the second tier, where he signed off with a top-five finish in the English Trophy. Contending here is a tall order but he has a very bright future.
All that remains is for me to thank you for reading throughout 2022. It's been a strange one, with by far the best result coming on the Korn Ferry Tour, but hopefully there were sufficient highs among the bread-and-butter of the PGA and DP World Tours to ensure you'll be back, as I will, in January. Sincerely, thanks.
Posted at 1635 GMT on 12/12/22
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