Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Magical Kenya Open preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Magical Kenya Open

3pts e.w. Sebastian Soderberg at 25/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1.5ps e.w. Connor Syme at 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1.5pts e.w. Marcel Schneider at 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Aaron Cockerill at 70/1 (bet365, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Ricardo Gouveia at 80/1 (bet365, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Since Tyrrell Hatton won the Dubai Desert Classic, a run of Middle East events on the DP World Tour has gone to three big hitters, two of whom thrashed at the ball with gay abandon, riding luck they'd created with their chutzpa. The other, Laurie Canter, was a little bit lucky as well, but you do have to be the one waiting for the leader to slip up and there he was thanks to another ball-striking masterclass in Bahrain.

Alejandro del Rey and Haotong Li are different in the way they go about things and in their own ways, both are among the most exciting players to watch on the circuit. Both were findable to some degree because of where they were playing (this writer was on them for the 2024 editions of the very same tournaments), their styles complemented by courses where power beats precision, and where there's nothing like the luck of the lie.

That makes the move to Nairobi for the Kenya Open one of the most dramatic of the season in terms of the contrast in styles required, because Muthaiga is everything that Al Hamra and Royal GC and Doha are not. At Muthaiga, you plot. If you try to get on the front foot, to use the altitude and the heat to cut corners, you'll probably find out the hard way that this old-fashioned golf course was made for an old-fashioned skill set.

Just look at the winners and those who've pushed them close. Darius van Driel is a fairways-and-greens golfer who got the better of Nacho Elvira, a bad driver but brilliant putter whose irons can match just about anyone else's at this level. Jorge Campillo is a better version of van Driel and Masahiro Kawamura is a worse version of Campillo. Before these, on the Challenge Tour, came wins for Lorenzo Gagli and Aaron Rai.

Karen, which is a short drive southwest of Muthaiga, is different. There's space at Karen and that brings opportunities to cut some short par-fours down to size, which Danie van Tonder and Guido Migliozzi did, with Adri Arnaus and Kurt Kitayama among those to have gone close trying.

Johannes Veerman explains it best, saying of Muthaiga: "This course is very tight. I cannot stress how big these trees are. You think you can take these carry lines but you can't because these trees are 40 yards tall."

It's rare to see five of the top 10 lose strokes off the tee but that's what happened last year and while in a sense that was the difference between van Driel and the two players tied for second, driver just isn't the club to focus on this week. What we're most likely looking for is someone whose iron play and short-game are strengths; perhaps someone who, like van Driel, has spent the opening weeks of the season battling a handicap which around this course doesn't really apply.

SEBASTIAN SODERBERG looks the one to beat given his skillset and he's worth a good bet at 20/1 and bigger.

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This is just such a different challenge for Li and I doubt he'll be quite so fortunate so while 2023 champion Jorge Campillo is of course respected, it's Soderberg who I consider the most likely contender.

The Swede endured an autumn slump last year, taking time away following his brutal week on home soil where he let slip a golden opportunity to win his second DP World Tour title, then struggling to recapture that form upon his return.

But since showing signs of improvement in November, he seems to have benefited from the fresh start a new year brings and in three appearances in the Middle East, his form figures read 31-5-24, latterly in Bahrain three weeks ago.

His work around the greens has been exemplary, he's putted well twice and we saw at Al Hamra the best of his high-class approach play, but he's not anything like as effective on driver-heavy courses and that was always going to make life difficult.

Last year's trio of runner-up finishes came in India, Japan and Sweden, all on positional courses, and as well as winning this title when it was held at Karen on the Challenge Tour, he was sixth on his last Muthaiga start when leading through 54 holes.

Soderberg's sole DP World Tour win also underlines his chances as it came at Crans, where Campillo and Elvira boast such fine records, where Muthaiga champion Lorenzo Gagli was part of the play-off, and course specialist Masahiro Kawamura is one of several others who tie the two courses together.

Nairobi's altitude is something to do with that but the nature of these suffocating courses is key and Soderberg, providing he can keep breathing when the pressure ramps up on Sunday, looks to hold leading claims.

Joost Luiten is solid and you can overlook his missed cut on his sole previous start here as he was struggling at the time. His tee-to-green game is as reliable as ever while fellow fairway-finder Adrien Saddier has been runner-up here, seventh at Crans, second at Geneve and close to the leaders at Rinkven, all of which are good guides to the Kenya Open.

Of the two, Luiten stands out as the better value but he's developed a nasty habit of playing well without threatening and while his best golf last year came at Crans, the Dutchman, whose chipping is a weakness, doesn't quite convince me.

Jayden Schaper was my favourite bet in this two years ago and duly contended so he's on the radar while Joe Dean's withdrawal in Qatar, citing illness, sets alarm bells ringing. Ludvig Aberg emphatically put flu behind him at Torrey Pines on Sunday and Dean, who burst on the scene in this event last year and went on to play well at Rinkven, is another obvious option.

Preference though is for a pair of 50/1 shots, starting with CONNOR SYME.

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The Scot was right in the mix through 54 holes last year and eventually settled for seventh, having arrived following four mid-pack finishes in the Middle East.

Twelve months on and his form coming in reads similarly, with 27th in Dubai followed by 22nd and 34th in slightly weaker events. It was good to see him get closer to the lead in Bahrain and following the same path as last year, he should feel ready to step up in this company.

Syme has been driving the ball straight (14th and ninth the last twice) without really gaining much of an advantage for doing so but around Muthaiga that would give him a definite edge, and with his irons ticking over really nicely (ranked first in a high-class Dubai Desert Classic), his long-game is right where he needs it to be.

Better putting in Bahrain looks like it could be the final piece of the puzzle and if you look through Syme's career, you see hint after hint that, if he does win, it'll come at a course like this. Third at Crans is the standout given that it was behind Aberg, but two top-fives at Galgorm Castle, two more at Diamond, third at Karen, eighth at Valderrama, third at the Belfry and 11th at Leopard Creek all fit the description.

Syme is a really tidy golfer and if we land on one of his better putting weeks, this former winner of the Australian Amateur can finally deliver the trophy his talent has long promised.

Kazuma Kobori won that prestigious amateur title a couple of years ago and the New Zealander has shown enough promise to be considered, but he's a shorter price than I expected whereas 2012 champion MARCEL SCHNEIDER looks value at 50s.

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He's not necessarily one who has been sneakily showing promise on unsuitable courses as finishes of eighth and 14th across his last two starts is some of the strongest form in the field. The first came about thanks to a red-hot putter and he'd have had a chance in Qatar had it remained so, but this time the rest of his game impressed as he made a big move through the field on Sunday.

Schneider though should benefit from this type of test and he's got stacks of form to suggest as much, with top-10s to his name at Rinkven and Crans, plus second at Geneve and 14th at Adamstal. The latter two are used on the Challenge Tour and Geneve in particular has worked out as a reliable guide to Muthaiga, with Elvira and van Driel both winners and Campillo a former runner-up.

His last top-five came on a fiddly course in Japan and it wasn't long before then that he finished 23rd here in Kenya, ranking 12th in the tee-to-green stats only to suffer a quiet week with the putter. That club runs hot and cold, more so than most, and may well determine how close he can get to the top of the leaderboard this week.

Certainly though, Schneider showed enough to believe that Muthaiga fit his eye, ranking seventh in fairways and eighth in greens, and I could see the 35-year-old bagging his first DP World Tour title.

Next is a player whose reliance on his short-game means chances don't come along that often, AARON COCKERILL.

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At 27th in strokes-gained around-the-green and 17th in putting last season, the Canadian showed once again that he boasts one of the very best short-games on the DP World Tour. He's accurate enough too, so it's a small collection of courses which really suit him.

This is certainly one such course, as he demonstrated when runner-up in 2022. That came after a run of MC-42-MC-62 to begin the year, a couple of those on the Challenge Tour, yet at Muthaiga he was able to gain strokes with his ball-striking and let the putter do the rest.

Also fourth at Leopard Creek and with several low rounds to his name at Crans, including two 66s last year, Cockerill returns to Kenya having been 38th and 21st in his last two starts. In fact he's improved throughout all four this year and with his irons now firing, the only area of concern really is what he does off the tee.

As mentioned that often doesn't matter here so while he'll need to find more fairways than he managed in Qatar, should he do so then we'd just need more of the same from the rest of his game to have a live runner at a big price.

Cockerill has a top-five finish at altitude on a tree-lined course in Joburg, he's been a play-off loser in Japan under similar conditions, he's been 10th at Rinkven, and he could go one better than when second here behind another short-game maestro in Ashun Wu.

Go in again on Gouveia

As discussed on this week's episode of Sliced Golf Podcast, my shortlist here is about as long as it gets and the last man off it was Pierre Pineau. This wild Frenchman might be the best putter in Europe and was 15th here a couple of years ago, on what was just his fourth DP World Tour start.

"I played pretty solid, this course fits really well with my game," was his response following an opening 65 and having missed two cuts narrowly before showing improvement to be 25th in Qatar last time, he was the one I was first drawn to. The trouble is he undeniably has difficulty avoiding big numbers and might just be one to follow for the first-round lead and wait it out, as I do expect he'll dazzle at some point.

Compatriot Benjamin Hebert is playing tidily and has been first and second at Geneve and Rinkven, as well as played nicely when arriving here out of sorts many years ago. It's a decade since he won anything though and he's probably one for three-ball punters if well-drawn, as he does look sharp on and around the greens at present and has always been accurate from the tee.

Matthias Schwab maybe hasn't been as bad as it looks like he's been and his form picked up when he arrived here last year, arrow-straight Joel Girrbach has made three cuts in four this year and will find this easier, while both Elvira brothers have enough course and current form to be of some interest too.

But rather than rolling the dice on Pineau or Schwab, the only ones I seriously considered chancing, I keep coming back to Doha selection RICARDO GOUVEIA.

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We can take almost the same price in this much weaker event, with Laurie Canter, Jordan Smith, Antoine Rozner, Johannes Veerman, Keita Nakajima, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, Matthew Jordan, Sam Bairstow, Ewen Ferguson and Daniel Hillier all absent.

That's because Gouveia missed the cut, but for the fourth time in as many starts this year his tee-to-green game was strong, only this time his putting was awful. He summed it up neatly on Instagram, posting: "A very cold week with the putter in Qatar meant an early exit. Lots of positives though in this first stretch of events to start 2025 off."

Prior to that he'd been 14th behind Tyrrell Hatton in Dubai and 21st behind Canter in Bahrain and the Portuguese seems a new man after producing such a brave display to keep his card in Korea. Standing up and hitting quality shots down the stretch, knowing what was at stake, in the company of Tom Kim and Byeong Hun An, seems to have convinced him he can compete at this level.

We've seen Ivan Cantero build on a similar performance but whereas he's done it on a load of ideal golf courses, Gouveia has generally played venues which leave him vulnerable. Then, in Doha, he happened to endure a rotten putting week, which happens from time to time and in fact is what kept him to 42nd in this event last year.

Nevertheless, Gouveia produced his second-best approach-play stats of the season, the best later coming when third in Korea, and having been second in Geneve and long spoken of his love of Valderrama, this is definitely the right type of course for a short but accurate driver like him.

A contender at nearby Karen a decade ago but surely a better fit for Muthaiga, the Portuguese at last looks ready to bring his Challenge Tour form to the DP World Tour, and this is a great place for him to show it.

Posted at 1800 GMT on 17/02/25

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