Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Made in HimmerLand preview and best bets

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Golf betting tips: Made in HimmerLand

1pt e.w. Espen Kofstad at 66/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Matthew Jordan at 80/1 (William Hill, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Joakim Lagergren at 125/1 (William Hill, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Matthew Southgate at 125/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Jeff Winther at 150/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Ricardo Gouveia at 250/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. Jonathan Caldwell at 500/1 (William Hill, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

The Made in HimmerLand might be among the least writer-friendly tournament names on the DP World Tour calendar, but the event itself has been a joy to follow since its inception. This is good, wholesome fun in Farsø and sits perfectly in a slot adjacent to last week's breathtaking European Masters, the silliness thrown up by both courses so easy to overlook.

In fairness to HimmerLand, whose capital L is a mystery to me, there's a lot to like about a short, typically firm and very much exposed golf course, which has allowed for a variety of styles. The silliness here is largely confined to the 16th hole, a par-three which can be set up to play less than 80 yards and make for hole-in-one attempts to front pins, or else infuriate players and their backers as one after one they fail to access back pins.

As with so many courses of this style, defence is either natural or non-existent, and the forecast for this week suggest whatever wind there is won't be too much of an issue. It will play a part, because anything around the 10mph mark will do that here, but it shouldn't blow anyone off course. This means that, perhaps counterintuitively, the one thing the tournament lacks – a Danish champion – becomes a little more likely.

Once upon a time, we'd probably want cold weather and a stiff breeze to bring the best out of the Danes, but no more. Rasmus Hojgaard, his twin brother Nicolai, huge-hitting Niklas Norgaard Moller and Marcus Hellingkilde are all aggressive players with extra yards in their locker, and they'll relish the opportunity to attack HimmerLand in front of a packed crowd once again.

All are respected but only the Hojgaard twins offer value in my eyes, and neither has done quite enough lately. Rasmus put up a tame defence in Switzerland and Nicolai's performance there did little to dissuade me from the view that, for now, he still needs a very specific type of golf course to be seen to his best. To borrow a popular reply to many a LIV golfer press release, this ain't it.

But it really is 'it' for JEFF WINTHER, a winner himself at this level and huge value at three-figure prices.

• CLICK HERE to back Winther with Sky Bet

Winther has plenty of experience of HimmerLand, where he was seventh at halfway on debut before fading to 18th, still producing one of his standout performances of a generally quiet campaign. Three years later he was 18th again, largely due to his short-game, and he'd have finished somewhere similar had he not endured an abysmal putting week when we came back here last spring.

Also third when alongside Rasmus and just behind Moller in the 2020 Danish PGA held here, he's demonstrated that it's a good course for him and so it should be. Winther was third in a tricky Qatar Masters in 2020, he's played well at The Renaissance which throws up several ties as does Diamond in Austria, where he's contended on his last two visits. And when he won in Spain last year, it was at another course which allowed those who struggle off the tee to remain competitive.

That driver is the problem, but it can be overcome here and I'd suggest his improving approach play is a better guide to his chances. Winther led that category when scoring in Mallorca, and it had turned a corner over the previous month, during which he'd produced positive strokes-gained numbers in three consecutive starts. This time, he's done it in four, and that's a big turnaround for one who struggled throughout spring.

Mallorca wasn't a one-off, either. When he'd been third in Gran Canaria, the same applied, and so did it prior to that pre-pandemic performance in Doha. A few months earlier, fourth place in the Open de Espana also came after a turnaround. Winther is by no means alone in this particular profile, and following those who've started to set up good chances on a consistent basis is a good starting point.

We know he won't beat anyone off the tee, but he can with the rest of his game and the fact his putter hasn't caught fire lately further underlines how close he is to a big week. Winther is known among his peers as one of the better putters on the circuit and if he can marry that with his iron play then improving on 29th place in Switzerland, where he'd never fired before, would be at the low end of expectations.

Kofstad ready to contend again

Winther gets the headline vote not just because it was an easy headline to write, but because of all seven selections he's the one whose price offers the most value, and because there's no confident bet here.

Eddie Pepperell, Rasmus Hojgaard and Alex Bjork are the three big names who were most tempting beyond the favourite, but Bjork placed for us at three-times the odds last year and rarely appeals as one of the more fancied players, while there's something gnawing away at me about Pepperell which I can't quite put my finger on.

In the circumstances it's best to speculate with some smaller bets, the most solid of them being ESPEN KOFSTAD.

• CLICK HERE to back Kofstad with Sky Bet

The Norwegian has done fabulously well to put the pieces of a once-promising career back together and it was a year ago in Denmark that the process was just about completed, as he got the better of Ewen Ferguson in a play-off for the Esbjerg Challenge.

Overall across the two main tours his record in Denmark reads 21-5-26-12-28-1 and second only to that win in terms of significance is the 12th place, because it came on his sole previous start in this event. That was in 2019, when Kofstad was playing on a medical extension, and followed a run of MC-MC-45-MC-WD-MC-81-MC. It was, unsurprisingly, his standout performance of the year.

Now back for a second try, he's able to call upon a much more robust set of results, dating back to when contending in the Irish Open on his way to ninth place. Despite letting a good chance slip there at Mount Juliet, Kofstad went on to finish 13th and 16th in two PGA Tour starts, and he was in the mix at halfway when 25th in the Cazoo Open last time out.

All key areas of his game have improved, from a sustained run of quality driving to three good putting performances in his last four measured starts, and he's always been a player with the ability to win tournaments at this level. Being in Scandinavia will help and while there's not much room in the price, anything bigger than 50/1 is worth taking.

Before moving on to those at three-figure prices, fellow maiden MATTHEW JORDAN is an appealing 80/1 shot.

• CLICK HERE to back Jordan with Sky Bet

We know by now that Jordan burst on the scene with a dazzling first round in the British Masters back in 2019, a fortnight before this event. Robert MacIntyre finished runner-up in both and it would be fair to say Hillside shares something in common with HimmerLand, both of them being short, exposed and not easily overpowered.

Jordan also has form at The Renaissance, where he flirted with the places when put up here at 300/1 for the Scottish Open. He'd been 18th at the same course a year earlier, in far better company than this, and having selected Min Woo Lee for the Made in HimmerLand only to see him go and win the Scottish Open, I'm keen not to make the same mistake in reverse.

The fact Jordan contended in the Qatar Masters is another big plus and this is definitely his kind of golf. As such, a closing 66 for a respectable finish in Switzerland very much marked him down as one to take a chance on, and I do think it's significant that his approach play is starting to show signs of consistency. For a while it has held him back, but if he can get his driver going again he's in a good place to do some damage either here, at the Dunhill Links or perhaps in Portugal, with several courses he enjoys coming up on the schedule.

Now, we can't say HimmerLand qualifies just yet as he missed the cut here last year. However, Jordan was in terrible form at the time so perhaps a better guide to his chances is the 2019 Made in Denmark Challenge, where he held the 54-hole lead. That was at Silkeborg Ry, a very different course, but in time we'll surely see this seaside star contending in Scandinavia, and it could be as soon as Sunday.

Next is JOAKIM LAGERGREN, another of my Scottish Open selections albeit one who failed to fire in that Rolex Series event.

• CLICK HERE to back Lagergren with Sky Bet

Still, Lagergren's sole win came by the coast in Sicily, he boasts a fabulous record in the Dunhill Links and he's lost a play-off at Doha, so we know where this erratic driver is at his most effective: by the sea, or under links-like conditions, ideally when he can get away with a miss or two.

That description is about as far from Crans as you can get and his record there is suitably poor, seemingly all the more so after another missed cut last week. That said, he did sign off with a second-round 65, comfortably his best, and when set against a previous scoring average of over 71 suggests he might not be too far away under more suitable conditions.

He definitely gets them here. Lagergren was the first-round leader and inside the top five all week when battling it out with Thomas Pieters right until the 72nd hole, and after a strong start in 2019 he then went and shot a second-round 63 last year to climb from outside the top 100 to inside the top 10.

It's volatile, which is Lagergren in a nutshell, but he does ultimately boast one of the better scoring averages in this field and it might be telling that he's gained strokes off the tee on both visits for which we have that data. For a player prone to poor driving displays that has to be a source of encouragement, and so is the fact that he's actually been very good with that club recently.

Very much one of the best putters around, good driving and good putting at a course we know he likes gets us a long way to the winning formula. Last week, granted with a bit of luck, a Swede who'd dropped a big hint the previous Friday won for us at 200/1 on the Korn Ferry Tour. Perhaps Lagergren can do something very similar at only slightly shorter odds.

Southgate can get his hands on a trophy

I put up MATTHEW SOUTHGATE here last year and he's another who always makes the shortlist on such a golf course.

• CLICK HERE to back Southgate with Sky Bet

Southgate went on to miss the cut but his ball-striking was actually close to the levels he reached in 2019, when almost matching one-two Wiesberger and MacIntyre in that department. Some struggles around the green saw him left behind at the top of the leaderboard, but ninth place was ample evidence that HimmerLand suits.

Like Lagergren, that isn't the case with Crans, which makes last week's 23rd place look particularly good. It came courtesy of his best ball-striking display since the first week of February and saw him climb to 127th on the Race to Dubai, just below the cut-off for cards and another thing he has in common with Lagergren.

Yet another is their near-misses at Green Eagle but while that anecdote has something of the random about it, their efforts in the Dunhill Links do not. Instead, they underline exactly when we should look to back them at big odds and having also been 30th two starts ago, 15th in the Scandinavian Mixed and 16th in the Irish Open, I thought Southgate might receive a little more attention this week.

It's not too fanciful to suggest he'll be a similar price to beat Rory in the Dunhill Links in a few weeks and I can't let him go unbacked in these far calmer waters, as he's a good short-game week from getting back in the mix.

With seven selections I can almost spare you a shortlist, but suffice to say recent selections Andy Sullivan, Dale Whitnell and Daan Huizing in particular all made it. The latter is at ease on the DP World Tour at last, aided by having his partner on the bag, and is a Bjork-like player who can be exceptional in all departments except driving, which might not hold him back here.

Still, 100/1 is probably not giving much away, as silly as that may sound, and I'd rather chance RICARDO GOUVEIA at more than twice that.

• CLICK HERE to back Gouveia with Sky Bet

The Portuguese has always been one of those players who is too good for the Challenge Tour without making things look easy at this level, though he has kept his card on a couple of occasions and those experiences will serve him well from just below the cut-off with a couple of months to go.

Short off the tee, a sub-7,000-yard course helps and he was ninth here on debut in 2016, one of just three top-10s that year, Doha among the other two. And that really is the message with Gouveia – that everywhere you look, his standout performances underscore the likelihood that HimmerLand is one of his favourite courses on the schedule.

He's played well at the Open de France, won in Oman and here in Denmark at Esbjerg, and produced much of his best golf at places like Walton Heath, Doha, Obidos and Dom Pedro. Even his win at the Belfry might tell us more than first appears, as it came on the shorter, more rugged and somewhat links-like PGA course, rather than the more famous Brabazon next door.

Crans, on the other hand, he does not like, so again we come back to this idea that we might be best ignoring form at one of the quirkiest courses on the schedule, at least as it relates to those who never feature there. That leaves us with a player who has a fairly recent top-10 in the rougher seas of the PGA Tour, whose approach play is his strength, and whose temperamental putter can absolutely run hot.

Given how well he played here on the first of just two previous visits, I'm willing to take a chance on a player with a soupçon of class.

Finally, JONATHAN CALDWELL gets the nod at a massive price.

• CLICK HERE to back Caldwell with Sky Bet

Last summer, the Northern Irishman caused a 200/1 upset under firm, fast conditions in the Scandinavian Mixed, where shorter hitters made up the leaderboard. It was confirmation that Caldwell needs a short course if he's to be competitive at this level, and it's no coincidence that a player with just a handful of big results to his name has made both cuts here.

He in fact sat sixth after an opening 67 a year ago, the first time he'd played HimmerLand at DP World Tour level, and gained strokes with his approaches to allow his putter to do the work. It was that performance, and more good iron play in Germany, which put me onto him for the Scandinavian Mixed, and there's just a small chance that history repeats itself here.

Caldwell's approach play last week was his second best of the year, behind only the Dutch Open which is played at a links-like course. He missed the cut narrowly, just as he had in two of his previous three starts, and all because of his driver. It had actually behaved on his previous start but the point here is that you can somewhat get away with things at HimmerLand, and the rest of his game was of a standard good enough to compete when last we saw him.

Given what we know about the sort of golf he prefers, and that he's bound to have enjoyed seeing his long-time friend Rory McIlroy scoop another FedEx Cup last week (Rory had won four weeks before Caldwell did last summer, whatever that's worth), I can't resist what's a proper roll of the dice.

And that's how this tournament reads to me. A week ago, I wrote a name down for it: that of Matt Wallace. Then he went and finished second in Switzerland, and his odds were chopped in half. Maybe, just maybe, Crans form won't be all it's cracked up to be.

Posted at 2130 BST on 30/08/22

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