Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Korea Championship preview and best bets
Ben Coley previews the Korea Championship, where two of the market leaders make plenty of appeal in an event lacking depth.
Golf betting tips: Korea Championship
3pts e.w. Jordan Smith at 18/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
2.5pts e.w. Robert MacIntyre at 20/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Guido Migliozzi at 66/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Haotong Li at 150/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Wil Besseling at 150/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6)
This time, you don't have to take my word for it. The clue is right there in the title – it's called Jack Nicklaus Golf Club. Who else would you really expect to be the designer of a course the DP World Tour visits for the first time? And what better name could you imagine for the final leg of what we'll call the Nicklaus Swing?
Unlike Ishioka, we already know plenty about this one. Not only has JNGC been a staple of the Korean Tour, but it reached our TV screens when staging the 2015 Presidents Cup and then again in the 2016 Asia-Pacific Amateur Championship, where Curtis Luck led home an Australian one-two.
Both events underlined the fact that scoring here can be difficult, largely because of the kind of wind which is forecast for Friday and Saturday, but also due to the greens. So dramatic were they when released to the wild that reconstructive work had to be done before the PGA Tour arrived and while players generally spoke favourably of them, I wonder whether that'd have been the case in an individual event.
Common consensus among the elite touring party was that this par 72, which features four reachable par-fives plus a driveable par-four, was ideal for the bigger hitters. Certainly, there's more of that Nicklaus trademark space off the tee than last week, and from there you're going to need to find the right portion of greens which are also far more undulating if perhaps not set to play quite as firm.
That combination, drivers into wide spaces and then precision approach shots, calls to mind St Andrews and while I wouldn't dream of placing great stock in a flippant comparison, note who the top-scorers were at the Presidents Cup. Leading the way was Louis Oosthuizen and in second was Zach Johnson, tied with Phil Mickelson. All three are Open champions; the first two did so at the Home of Golf.
To stress, this is not a links course. The ball won't run far and nobody will intentionally play it along the ground. However, scoring made difficult by wind – few players got close to breaking 70 in the Presidents Cup singles and many matches were won in over-par scores – does bring those Open Championship skills into the equation.
Other tournaments played here back up the theory that anything like the forecast 25mph breeze will keep a firm lid on things. Paul Casey, another with a fine St Andrews record, won the 2011 Shinhan Donghae Open in level par. Around the same time, calmer conditions allowed Champions Tour players to creep to 12- and 13-under in their 54-hole events. Luck won the APAC in 12-under, too.
Something like that might just do the trick and while his latest win came in a shootout, I rate JORDAN SMITH as the man to beat.
Rasmus Hojgaard again finds himself at the top of the betting despite admitting to being a gallop or two short of full fitness, while Adrian Meronk, a Nicklaus-design winner last summer, hasn't been seen since missing the cut in the Masters.
Smith might just have stolen a march on Meronk by playing in Japan last week and in finishing sixth, he marked himself down as one to follow both here and perhaps in Italy, for the simple reason that he can get his favourite club out of the bag far more often.
One of the most reliable drivers on the DP World Tour, Smith will have found Ishioka a little suffocating in that regard as it was a shorter, positional course. In the end, it produced a play-off between a duo with two of the very best short-games on the circuit, whose sometimes poor driving wasn't much of a hindrance.
Here, Smith will be able to reach for that club all day long and it's a potentially big advantage, even if the width of some of these fairways might negate it to a degree. In an ideal world, he wants a test of driving that demands not just power, but a measure of accuracy, nevertheless both wins share one thing in common: driver upon driver.
His iron play is top-notch, too. Among this field, Smith ranked second in strokes-gained approach last season, and he's led the field in greens hit in each of his last two starts. It's worth saying that 2022 data is far more reliable because there's much more of it; by contrast, just three of his seven starts this year have produced numbers we can trust.
What we do know is that he's bang in-form, his last eight rounds having been sub-70, and that a good putting week is always likely to make him a factor in this company. These greens might just be a leveller in that department but either way, his quality ball-striking will be accentuated at Jack Nicklaus Golf Club and he ought to go well.
The same can be said of Antoine Rozner and Yannik Paul, the latter one of the circuit's most in-form players, but it's ROBERT MACINTYRE who I'd rate the main danger to Smith.
Like the headline pick, he has form at the long, exposed and unrelentingly difficult Green Eagle in Germany and, armed with a new mental approach which involves grading himself on his on-course behaviour, he powered home for a top-10 last week.
MacIntyre contended in Kenya on his previous start so that's two high-class performances in succession, just in time for next week's title defence in Italy. His long-game appears to be in sync once more and a welcome improvement with the putter means everything is in place for an important summer.
Both of his wins so far have come on courses where he can be aggressive off the tee so this one should really suit, and his win at Marco Simone came after an uptick with his irons. We've seen something similar of late and he's been an enormous eye-catcher across both of his last two starts.
He'll need to avoid the big numbers which crept in during the middle of the ISPS Handa Championship and his attitude might be tested by the wind, but an exposed, driver-heavy course is my idea of his ideal fit. For that reason he goes in as the next best.
Part of the reason for two selections from the front of the betting is that we saw how difficult the Japan Tour players found things on Sunday. Takumi Kanaya and Rikuya Hoshino both began the day two shots off the lead and ended it outside the top 10, with only the veteran Hiroshi Iwata able to rise to the occasion. I'd expected a strong home challenge but in truth it failed to materialise.
We might see something similar in an event co-sanctioned with the Korean Tour and there aren't many of the locals who make serious appeal, although PGA Tour winner Sangmoon Bae is unbeaten in two starts here, showed a little something in the Zurich Classic last week, and can be backed at three-figure prices.
He'll appeal to some and with good reason having been eighth under tough conditions in Qatar recently, but it's a long time since he's been home, his overall form is poor, and it's simply asking too much for him to banish the memories of that horror finish to the Presidents Cup at the very same golf course.
It should pay to stick with the DP World Tour regulars and I was also drawn to Richard Mansell initially, a very similar player to Smith. The fact that he was the runaway leader at St Andrews in the Dunhill Links was part of the reason why, along with a strong record in the Dutch Open and third place at Green Eagle. He's played nicely all year.
Italian stallion ready to peak?
Marcus Helligkilde is another big-hitting maiden with form under exposed conditions, but for all his promise he's not really looked like contending at the business end of a tournament of this stature. As with Mansell, my feeling is that he's just a little too close to a strong core of proven market leaders and for that reason both are overlooked.
Preference is for GUIDO MIGLIOZZI, a class act on offer at a much bigger price.
The reason for quotes of 66/1 is Migliozzi's form since winning the Open de France last year. He's played 10 events since that dazzling finish and his best effort is 20th, with more cuts missed than made.
However, last week's third-round 64 was a big clue that he might be on the way back and while fading to 23rd on Sunday, that still goes down as an encouraging upturn from a player who will be desperate to find form in time for next week's Italian Open.
It was a similar performance in Rome which preceded his Paris victory last September which in itself is a positive, while I also like that he led at halfway in Abu Dhabi, given that Yas Links is a big, modern, coastal course with complex greens – a description which could apply to this one.
Step up @guidomigliozzi!!!!
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 25, 2022
He hits this shot into 18 as he looks to post -16. #CazooOpenDeFrance pic.twitter.com/ifos4jTocz
We know tough conditions suit given that he's been fourth and 14th in the last two US Opens as well as his victory in France and a luckless defeat in Qatar, and from a strokes-gained perspective he was second off the tee and 14th with his approaches last week. Taken as read, these would be massively eye-catching.
Now, we can't quite do that given that it's caddie-collected data, but he was first in fairways and second in greens. Migliozzi wouldn't be known for that kind of accuracy and coupled with the indicative strokes-gained numbers it suggests he either absolutely fell for the course, or that he's returned from a month off with his game in far better shape.
At the prices, we can take that chance and it may just be that he needed the time away to properly bed in his new equipment having changed manufacturers during the brief off-season.
Whatever the case, his famed stinger and the power he has at his fingertips both suggest this challenge will be far more to his liking than Ishioka, where he was within shouting distance entering the final round. Build on that and he'll soon look overpriced given his class.
Take a chance on classy Chinese
It's with even greater trepidation that I'll also suggest taking on board all risks associated with HAOTONG LI, who was a shot behind Migliozzi through 54 holes and remained there at the death after he too shot 73 on Sunday.
The similarities don't end there, as Li also went missing last year after a back-to-form victory in Germany, the driving problems which had threatened to ruin a promising career seemingly returning just at the moment he'd found light at the end of a long, dark tunnel.
Li's year began with a round of 84 at Yas Links and I've been keen to take him on everywhere, but then he shot 63 in round two of the ISPS Handa Championship, where he was still looking at a welcome top-10 finish approaching the turn in the final round.
It's of course worrying that he came home in four-over and most likely is that his struggles towards the end of the tournament are a better indication as to the state of his game, but he did avoid big numbers all week and officially ended it ranked 10th in strokes-gained off the tee.
To reiterate, we can't fully trust that ranking but it's one part of a wider case that he's turned or is turning the corner, having missed his previous two cuts on the number. He is ultimately one of the most capable players in the entire field dangled at enormous prices in spite of the signs of life he's shown.
The icing on the cake is the course and the conditions. Li is a former top-five finisher in an Open Championship who has been fifth in a Dunhill Links. He's contended at Bernardus, a modern, links-like course in Belgium, and almost pinched the Sicily Open on a big-hitter course at Verdura once upon a time.
Throw in the fact that his approach play is a major strength – on 2022 numbers he's 12th in this field – and that he can light up the greens, and all we really need is to believe that he has fixed that driver of his. Li did it last year and at the prices I'll take my chances on him having done so once more.
A classy @haotong_li hole out eagle 👀#ISPSHandaChampionship pic.twitter.com/zjhUhjRe75
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) April 22, 2023
Jeong Weon Ko is a big-hitter who is French-Korean and could enjoy this opportunity. Note that his standout performance so far came in Mauritius, ticking the French connection box, and with his potential in mind there's some temptation to chance him producing a similar display.
Jacques Kruyswijk has found form and also came into calculations along with Oliver Hundeboll and Alex Knappe, but the final one on my list is WIL BESSELING.
With a win in Colombia to his name and having gone close in China, we know Besseling's game travels, and he was another who stood out on the ISPS Handa leaderboard (23rd) given that he's best known for his top-class driving.
It's no wonder his best result so far this season came at Al Hamra, a drivers' paradise, and if this course provides a similar test then it ought to help him build on what he produced at Ishioka.
Besseling certainly enjoys tough conditions given that he's been runner-up at Green Eagle and second at Valderrama, the two most fearsome courses this tour visits, while third-place finishes in Austria and at Leopard Creek further underline what he's all about.
Struggles with putting have held him back but there have been more positive signs lately and as far as form in the wind goes, the Dutchman has top-10 finishes to his name in the KLM Open, Madeira and St Omer, along with some decent efforts in Scandinavia and Scotland.
We've a Nicklaus flourish courtesy of a top-20 at Mount Juliet, too, and he looks a prime candidate to step forward now that he can open his shoulders once more. If his short-game holds up, he might just get in the mix in an event I believe lacks depth.
Posted at 1905 BST on 24/04/23
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