Our golf expert has produced three-ball profits at Pebble Beach and Torrey Pines lately, but can he do it in Kenya?
Golf betting tips: Kenya Open round one
2pts Otaegui and Tarrio to win their three-balls at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
Credit to those bookmakers who've priced up many of Thursday's three-balls in the Magical Kenya Open, where I think they have the wrong favourite in the match which tees off at 9.50am UK time.
Guido Migliozzi shades it with both bet365 and Sky Bet but I'm not sure why. He's out of form with three missed cuts since Dubai, his record here reads MC-MC, and all parts of his game bar the putter have been very poor lately.
ADRIAN OTAEGUI also missed the cut in Qatar but only by a solitary shot owing to a misbehaving putter, the one club he does have trouble with despite what you might hear on the telly.
The ex-Spaniard is just about the most accurate driver of a ball in men's professional golf and while that's not necessarily important at Karen, where Migliozzi won this title in 2019, here at Muthaiga it's a big weapon. It's why his course form reads 34-30-4 and it's heartening that as well as finding fairways, he's putted to a good standard, too.
In fact, Otaegui has found more joy on the greens with each visit so far, hence that trajectory in results, and if he holes his share again there's no reason he can't contend. Muthaiga is just perfect for his style of play and it just isn't for Migliozzi's.
Justin Harding, another winner at Karen, completes the group.
He has one top 50 since last summer and two top-30 finishes over the last two years, a run of 34 starts. During this spell he's averaged about two shots more than Otaegui per round and odds of 11/4 probably overplay the likelihood of an upset at a course where his best result (40th) is worse than Otaegui's worst.
Two other players appeal and I've settled on SANTIAGO TARRIO, another course specialist.
Like Otaegui, he's an accurate driver but a poor putter whose course form is good, reading 26-3-11 and making this his most lucrative stop on the entire DP World Tour calendar.
Largely due to some miserable putting displays his form had been pretty awful until recently, but a second-round 68 in Cape Town seemingly sparked improvement last week as he finished 15th in an event for bigger hitters at Fancourt.
Tarrio has played well there previously so coming back to another venue he likes, he looks set for a good week if, and it's a pretty big if, that putter of his behaves itself.
Over 18 holes I'll take that chance, especially as Nicolai Kristensen missed the cut at Fancourt, where he'd previously been something of an event specialist. Lars van Meijel is more of a threat but struggled here last year and has achieved little in three starts in Kenya so far.
Zihao Jin is the other I considered at first, largely because of who he's playing with.
This Chinese youngster has two solid efforts to his name from four DP World Tour starts and only really in the first round of the Qatar Masters has he badly struggled, although he showed plenty of grit to bounce back with an under-par second round.
Straight off the tee and seemingly handy around the greens, I've a feeling that this shorter, firmer, more positional course may suit far better than those he's played in the Middle East, so if he copes with the altitude he could well make it three made cuts in five.
Up against him are two longer drivers and one of them, Marco Penge, is about the longest in this field. That's not really the Muthaiga formula but the bigger worry is that he returns from a two-month ban for betting on golf, which could leave him vulnerable on his first trip to Kenya.
I'd imagine Penge is treating this as a warm-up for the SA Open next week and so might Louis de Jager be, after he withdrew in Qatar. De Jager does have one top-10 finish at Muthaiga but at Challenge Tour level and has been mid-pack in the last two renewals despite arriving in seemingly better form.
I'm worried enough about Jin keeping up his end of the bargain though so while 75 could win this three-ball, I don't feel confident enough that it'll be him shooting it. In fact, the prices surprised me and had me leaning towards De Jager, but with his fitness unknown it's clearly a no-bet match.
Posted at 1635 GMT on 18/02/25
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