Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Italian Open preview and best bets

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Golf betting tips: Italian Open

1pt e.w. Nicolas Hojgaard at 80/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Gavin Green at 125/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Sean Crocker at 150/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Tom Lewis at 160/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Zander Lombard at 175/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Lucas Bjerregaard at 300/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

0.5pt e.w. Filippo Celli at 300/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Now is not the time for moaning, but last year's Italian Open was the low point of a largely fun campaign, and all because of a late field change. On Monday, I had written that strong drivers would benefit at Marco Simone, the soon-to-be Ryder Cup home, with length a potentially decisive advantage. Tommy Fleetwood made the staking plan along with a host of even more powerful types. On Tuesday, Nicolai Hojgaard got into the field as an alternate, and on Sunday he beat Fleetwood by one.

All the more frustrating was the fact I'd sided with Hojgaard on his previous start, and that his brother, Rasmus, had won the previous week. These things combined would surely have had him in the pre-tournament staking plan had he been in the field, especially as I'd noted on twitter that he'd be one to follow in the coming weeks. But he wasn't in the field, yet would go on to birdie the final hole to get the better of Fleetwood and Adrian Meronk.

The point of all this is to say that sometimes the working out is good and the result isn't, as anyone who has rushed through a GCSE maths project on deadline will know. The above is an extreme example, of course, and it does work both ways – sometimes the working out isn't so good, and the result is. Indeed had Fleetwood won it would not have been because of his driving as I had speculated, but entirely because of his putting. The right player won the tournament.

Now that I am able to mark my own homework free of schoolteachers I can say that on this occasion, the working out was sound. Marco Simone, built for the business of golf, is a modern course for the modern player. It's a stadium on grass, like Celtic Manor and Le Golf National before it. Bunkers are placed at yardages which challenge professionals and force some to sidestep them. There are a couple of those driveable, risk-reward par-fours which are always so popular.

More so than almost any on the DP World Tour schedule, this is a course for the big-hitter. It's a course for Hojgaard. Some might say it's a course for the United States team. But dealing with matters present, it very much looks like a course for Rory McIlroy.

Runner-up last week when luckless on Sunday, McIlroy arrives here at the very top of his game and with his sights no doubt set on taking the world number one spot back in the coming months, best achieved by capturing the Race to Dubai. Just as he did in 2019 he has responded strongly to another tale of Open Championship heartache and it's only by that measure, major championships, that we can question whether he's the player he was. By every other he most certainly is.

That's why he's a 4/1 shot, a price which discourages punters from an each-way bet to nothing, as will the fact most firms are betting to fewer places. It also discourages me from selecting him, despite the fact he's twice followed second place with first, that Shane Lowry winning will have made the BMW PGA easier to swallow, and that he could be very difficult to beat.

This is his first visit to Italy, in golfing terms at least, and for all that the course will suit, he will still be learning on the job. Perhaps at one of his favourite haunts he'd have been a bet, but at an entirely new one we surely have to take him on or admit defeat and give the event a miss. There are places still to play for, however, and a strong angle to pursue: power is king.

Dane to defend his title?

As such I'll begin with the defending champion, NICOLAI HOJGAARD.

• CLICK HERE to back Hojgaard with Sky Bet

For my money the young Dane, who almost matches Wilco Nienaber in distance terms, has won his two DP World Tour titles at the two courses most suited to him. Given his strengths and the way he attacks golf courses, it's not especially surprising that he can struggle badly when circumstances are against him, and as he continues to mature we'll continue to see mixed results.

But we might also see him prove deadly on certain courses, Marco Simone being one of them and Al Hamra, where he bullied his way to the Ras al Khaimah Championship, being another. It's massively telling that despite limited evidence, these two courses are already tied together not just through him but through a whole host of players who found that their shared blueprint spoke to them in some way.

Again, we've only had one Italian Open and few events at Al Hamra, yet Scott Jamieson, Pablo Larrazabal, Francesco Laporta, Masahiro Kawamora, Adrian Meronk and Adri Arnaus join Hojgaard in having secured top-10 finishes at both. Johannes Veerman was 12th at Al Hamra and eighth here. This is a big chunk of a relatively small group who've so much as been to both courses.

So, there was no coincidence to either Hojgaard win, and there's a chance he comes back here and successfully defends his title. He's not in obviously good form but nor was he before winning in the Middle East, and missed cuts at the Made in Himmerland and the BMW PGA Championship both came by a single stroke under far less suitable conditions.

Before that he carded a third-round 64 in Switzerland to briefly threaten the top of the leaderboard, drove the ball to a very high standard when making the cut in the Open, and had been seventh after the first round of the Rolex Series event in Scotland. He might not be all that far away and, for now, the final piece of the jigsaw is likely to be the nature of the course.

Green light for Prague second

At the top of the market it's hard to see value in anyone and certainly not Francesco Molinari to my eye. He was selected for this event at 40/1 last year and returns a 20/1 shot who has far superior opposition to cope with. Wentworth was a further step in the right direction following encouragement at St Andrews, but bookmakers are taking no chances about a player who has barely contended since the 2019 Masters.

Viktor Hovland holds more appeal as he could so easily have won the BMW PGA without his A-game and will remain a big threat in fields like this one. However, his driving was the worry going in and ultimately cost him the title, so with this course likely less suitable he's one we can certainly look to get beaten.

I will do so, however, with a range of outsiders. My view is that Robert MacIntyre is closer than he looks, and I keep referencing Antoine Rozner's ball-striking because it remains of a very high standard. They are among a handful of players with the class to beat the best names here, others including Adri Arnaus and Min Woo Lee, but this is a week where speculation is the name of the game.

First up among a handful at three-figure prices is GAVIN GREEN.

• CLICK HERE to back Green with Sky Bet

Runner-up for us as a 66/1 chance in Prague, when doubtless unfortunate, he's twice those odds on account of this much stronger field. That's only natural, but he has held his form since and looks to be back at the sort of levels which saw him priced among the favourites when golf emerged from lockdown in 2020.

Since the Czech Masters he's signed off with a 64 in Crans and played well for three rounds in Denmark, neither as suitable as this might be. Green in fact finished 24th here last year and that can be upgraded on account of the fact he'd struggled for many months, and it was his best finish of the season to date.

Approach play was the driver of that performance and has generally been very good over the last two months, and while his driving appears to have dropped off a fraction, again context is key. When he had space and bunkers to carry at another big, resort course in Prague, he was very good for the most part until the pressure told late on Sunday.

Look through his back catalogue and you'll see he also has a fine record at Celtic Manor (11th and eighth) and contended twice at Royal Greens, the course in Saudi Arabia which was immediately identifiable as one particularly vulnerable to big hitting.

By no means am I arguing that Marco Simone won't allow other playing styles to compete, but there's one I consider to be optimal and it's one Green boasts. He's a real talent arriving with real confidence and can better his debut effort here.

The race is on for Tom...

Royal Greens and Albatross also help make the case for TOM LEWIS.

• CLICK HERE to back Lewis with Sky Bet

Third, sixth and 13th in the Czech Republic and third behind Dustin Johnson in Saudi Arabia, the powerful Englishman is at his best on resort courses where his driving can fly bunkers which others have to play away from.

That weapon also helped power both Portugal Masters wins, which of course came at this time of year, and it wouldn't surprise me if he were to add another title to his collection or at the very least salvage his playing rights from 169th on the Race to Dubai.

Lewis came back to Europe with his tail between his legs following a miserable Korn Ferry Tour campaign, but home comforts count for plenty and he's been 13th, 71st and 12th since his return. Despite one of these events being the European Masters, where he isn't hugely effective, Lewis has carded no worse than 72 in 12 rounds, averaging 68.64 and surely building some confidence at last.

It's true that he's relied a little on the putter, particularly when contending in Denmark, but his reliable long-game ought to return soon enough and it would make him a danger man at big prices. He has a good record in Italy and plenty to play for under what should be ideal conditions.

Grant Forrest made the shortlist after several signs of encouragement lately but I'll opt for the man who succeeded him at Fairmont St Andrews, SEAN CROCKER.

• CLICK HERE to back Crocker with Sky Bet

Rightly sent off among the favourites after his breakthrough there, Crocker has drifted down the betting again without telling us anything new, nor overly concerning. Ultimately, how this big-hitting, flag-hunting American performs with putter in hand determines where he finishes: twice this summer he's putted better than field average, and he's been seventh and first as a result.

Last week's missed cut at Wentworth was far from disastrous as he again struck it well and shot two-under for his 36 holes, missing by two under easy conditions. Significantly, he was no bigger than 150/1 for that Rolex Series event and now, absent of several big names like Shane Lowry, Billy Horschel, Thomas Pieters, Tommy Fleetwood and the LIV battalion, we can back him at the very same price.

That's despite the fact he was 18th in this event last year when defying a slow start and ranking second only to Hojgaard in strokes-gained off-the-tee. And it's despite the fact he also putted well enough here at Marco Simone, instead undone by a quieter-than-usual week with his irons which kept him from the top 10.

The other thing I like is that while Crocker skipped both this year's events at Al Hamra, he was the halfway leader when playing a Challenge Tour event there in 2018, eventually settling for fifth. There's absolutely no doubt in my mind that a good putting week would have him in the mix for this title so at three-figure prices, in a weaker field than the BMW PGA, he's must-bet material.

At the risk of siding with one too many rogues, ZANDER LOMBARD can return from a week's holiday in Greece with a big performance here in Rome.

• CLICK HERE to back Lombard with Sky Bet

Lombard lacks consistency but has stacks of ability and he's shown it often enough this season, three top-five finishes placing him just a spot below Rozner in the Race to Dubai standings and on track for an appearance in the DP World Tour Championship if he can find one more.

It could come here, as his missed cut in the 2021 renewal arrived when his game was in disarray, whereas now he's found something. Among his last three starts, nine tournament rounds, Lombard has shot 64, a pair of 65s and a 66, and he's really started to fire with his approaches, ranking fourth last time and sixth in Prague.

He'd been driving the ball well prior to the Made in Himmerland and if getting that club back on track then everything could come together at a course which should suit. To strengthen that view, the powerful South African was third behind Ryan Fox at Al Hamra, where he shot rounds of 63 and 65, while his recent standout came at the aforementioned Albatross.

Also placed at Sun City and Green Eagle in the past, two of the very longest courses on the schedule, Lombard came closest to winning when pipped by Alvaro Quiros in Siciliy, in another event dominated by big hitters. He's a risky conveyance but a worthwhile bet here.

Power-packed outsiders worth a bet

Niklas Norgaard Moller was considered on the basis that he hits the ball a mile and has shown flashes lately, but the last we saw of him was a 10 on the final hole in round two of his home event. That's a bit of a body blow to say the least and while 10th at Green Eagle catches the eye, for now he's still working out how to put it all together.

By contrast, compatriot LUCAS BJERREGAARD did that when third in Wales recently and he's played fine since, missing the cut narrowly in Switzerland and then opening with a round of 65 in Denmark.

• CLICK HERE to back Bjerregaard with Sky Bet

Last week's missed cut came by a single shot at Wentworth and he played well on Saturday, shooting a four-under 68 which featured just one dropped shot. There's definitely a big miss still lurking off the tee, but all in all he appears to have made big strides in the right direction, just as he did last year when his status came under threat.

Bjerregaard in fact produced a ball-striking masterclass in Wales, which had seemed far from possible for a long time, and as well as salvaging his card on a couple of occasions, both wins came late in the season, too. Throw in a good record in Italy and there's a lot to like, last year's missed cut here coming by a narrow margin and when he had a few more demons to deal with.

What I most like is that his approach play has become very solid once more and that should inspire confidence. We know he's capable of red-hot putting weeks and as for that driver, three of his last five starts have been good, two of them more than that. For my money those two both came on courses which were tilted towards power over accuracy and this is another example.

At 157th in the Race to Dubai, a return to the Challenge Tour beckons for Bjerregaard unless he can dig himself out of another hole. He managed it last year with second place to Pieters in Portugal, and something similar would do nicely.

Finally, it would be nice to have an Italian on-side and we can make room in the staking plan for a promising youngster, FILIPPO CELLI, at huge odds.

• CLICK HERE to back Celli with Sky Bet

Celli won admirers when 47th in the Open, winning the Silver Medal for low amateur, and soon went on to capitalise with a top-10 finish on the DP World Tour in Northern Ireland. In both events he drove the ball to an extremely high standard and that bodes well for a second crack at Marco Simone, where he missed the cut narrowly after a promising start last year.

Since then he's taken some big steps forward and following a missed cut in Switzerland which is easy to excuse, he was fourth in the Eisenhower Trophy a couple of weeks ago, a team event which featured some of the best amateurs in golf. He now makes his pro debut in his national open, days after turning 22, and might just surprise a few.

Posted at 1150 BST on 13/09/22

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