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Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Irish Open final-round preview and best bets
Ben Coley has the man in second place heading into the final round of the Irish Open. The trouble is, the man in first place is Rory McIlroy.
For a player who is meant to be no good at links golf, in the wind, on firm ground, or when pars are hard to come by, Rory McIlroy does all right. In fact should he win the Irish Open for a second time tomorrow, he'll have wins at Royal County Down and Royal Liverpool on his CV, plus another at The Renaissance. McIlroy once said he wasn't very fond of the game played this way, but he's become a master at it.
To be frank, prices close to even-money about one of the best players in the world, with a one-shot lead, with a further two back to third place, look potentially generous. The fact that Sunday's forecast is a little kinder is if anything a positive, because that would decrease volatility. Under calm conditions, expect McIlroy to put on a masterclass and win his fourth title of a modest 2024.
Backers of Matteo Manassero, one of my pre-tournament selections, clearly have hope and I've been impressed with him all week. The Italian is a little shaky over short putts but his game is otherwise perfect for this sort of challenge, with his ability to knock down approach shots and produce an array of chips and pitches part of the case laid out on Tuesday.
He's got a handy cushion for the place money but it is bunched behind and while I don't think playing with McIlroy will unsettle him, it's a bit of an unknown. Manassero's victory in South Africa earlier this year was in modest company. This is another step up and if he were to win, there's an argument that it would be the biggest achievement of his career. In fact I'd say that's beyond debate.
Some will be keen to get stuck into McIlroy and I really have spent a couple of hours considering it, but there's just one nagging concern: the names tied for third. In a match against Manassero, 5/6 would be as good a bet as you'll find, but Rasmus Hojgaard, Robert MacIntyre and Erik van Rooyen are all dangerous, as might Jordan Smith be if the putts continue to drop.
Hojgaard has been more deadly than dangerous when in this sort of position. Out in front, he's been victim to a sensational closing round in France and not always convincing, but he's won in England, Switzerland and Denmark when freewheeling on Sunday. With McIlroy out in front and nothing short of a phenomenal round required, he might feel that he can adopt a similar strategy and it might just click.
MacIntyre meanwhile must realise that this is an opportunity for revenge. Last summer, McIlroy denied him his national open; this time he can do the same. And he, too, has won from off the pace when playing the sort of aggressive golf he so enjoys playing. That's what he did when beating Matt Fitzpatrick in Italy, and with two wins in his last 10 starts, confidence in this sort of situation is at an all-time high.
Perhaps the best way to bet, particularly for those without a pre-tournament position, is to take those two in the 'without McIlroy' market, their combined price about the same as Manassero's. Without the same kind of pressure he'll face, and with favourable weather, they look prime candidates to make a charge. But then so does van Rooyen, who will definitely benefit from better weather.
Ultimately then I'll wait and see what Manassero can do, pitted against the best European golfer we've ever seen (I'd put 'arguably' here except I don't think it's arguable), one whose conversion rate with a clear lead is 65%. On the DP World Tour he's converted six of his last eight and in front of his own fans, an hour from where he first learned to play the game, McIlroy might just storm to his 41st professional title.
If he doesn't, hopefully Manassero is the one left picking up the pieces.
Posted at 1900 BST on 14/09/24
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