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Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Hero World Challenge preview and best bets
Ludvig Aberg can set himself up for a massive 2025 by winning the Hero World Challenge according to golf expert Ben Coley.
Golf betting tips: Hero World Challenge
4pts e.w. Ludvig Aberg at 11/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Sepp Straka at 45/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt Aberg/Cantlay dual forecast at 50/1 (bet365)
Scottie Scheffler
Course form figures of 2-2-1, a scoring average of 67.75, the fact that he's the best player in the world and that there are only 19 players to beat all point towards Scheffler ending this fabulous year on a winning note. He really could look like excellent business at 5/2 in what is not a strong renewal of Tiger's tournament – according to DataGolf, right now the second best player in this field is his Presidents Cup partner, Russell Henley. The Presidents Cup does serve one note of caution: Scheffler wasn't great there, putting poorly, and that club remains a worry. He could of course win without much help from it.
Justin Thomas
Some might argue he's the biggest danger given that he also loves Albany, though the fact that his scoring average is almost a stroke and a half higher than Scheffler's tells you how far ahead the world number one has been. Thomas though boasts one potential advantage, that being the fact we've seen him playing tournament golf relatively recently at the ZOZO Championship, where he probably should've won. Like the favourite, the putter is the big worry but at least you won't have strokes-gained data to tell you just how many he's missed. If you do fancy him, surely you're taking a bit of the 50/1 for the Mas... oh forget it.
Patrick Cantlay
Led after round one on his 2018 debut and then closed strongly for fifth place, before a slow start kept him well down the leaderboard a year later. Hasn't played since and might be here to help further promote the TGL before its full unveiling in January, or maybe it's more to do with the fact he knows this year hasn't been great. Still, from a contending performance at Pinehurst he played well every week bar the final one to end the season, and then was electric at the Presidents Cup. In that form would be a threat to all.
Ludvig Aberg
Back from surgery with two 64s and two duds at the RSM Classic, an event in which he'd produced a record-breaking win a year earlier. Said there that he's not suffering any pain and had returned to the golf course in October, so probably no need to dwell on his health. In fact you could argue all this is a positive: while Scheffler had every excuse to put his feet up, Aberg was itching to get going again ahead of what we all expect to be a big 2025. Could get things moving early if he takes to Albany, which he ought to.
Sungjae Im
Frustrating to follow but performing at a consistently high level and did so in the end at the ZOZO despite a slow start. Playing similarly to when eighth on debut here and would expect him to finish nearer first than last. Approach play needs to be on and if it is will be involved at some stage. Possibly one to look for in matches and three-balls or even to be the best of the two Koreans.
Sam Burns
Could so easily have won when third on debut at the end of breakout 2021 season, but well behind at halfway in each of his two subsequent visits. Another good FedEx Cup Playoffs, helped no doubt by the fact that two of those events have permanent homes that he likes, but only seen at the Presidents Cup since then and wasn't one of the better US players except for on the greens. Couldn't rule out given the space this place affords and would've been about fourth or fifth on my list.
Russell Henley
Consistently very good, seldom outstanding, but top-10s at two more majors this year before super Presidents Cup debut dangle the possibility that he steps up a level going forward. Solid bank of form certainly merits respect on first start here and somewhat breezy forecast might be to his advantage if he can keep in touch. Not seen since Royal Montreal and surprising that he skipped Sea Island.
Tom Kim
Far from the only golfer here who has gone through a largely disappointing year which began with high expectations, the worst of it coming in the autumn when he missed a Paris medal then exited early in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Two missed cuts and a second place that should've been first since then so really can't catch a break but was 10th two years ago and could bounce back.
Wyndham Clark
Poor debut when possibly out of gas at the end of US Open-winning season, or else distracted by LIV Golf advances. Decent season which saw him add to his collection with Pebble Beach win and was in good shape during the Playoffs, so given poor Silverado record there's not much to excuse. Does have to prove course suitability and overall wellbeing, though.
Sahith Theegala
Stop me if you've read this before: bit of a disappointing season given that he signed off the last one having bagged his first win. This is what happens when the best two or three players in the game mop up a load of titles, I suppose, and hasn't done a lot wrong, improving off the tee and contending for the US PGA. Can be an all-or-nothing type but with some upside as not hard to forgive a poor effort in the ZOZO.
Jason Day
Top-10 finish in the Australian PGA just about what we ought to expect given lack of depth to those fields but at least means he has competitive golf behind him. Hasn't really looked like winning since he did win last May and would have to be worried about his ball-striking. Entered the final round of this event in fourth place last year before fading.
Akshay Bhatia
Fine record in the Bahamas where he won sole Korn Ferry Tour title and having been second last time in Japan, will make some appeal to those looking for one at a nice each-way price. Worth saying though that the Dunlop Phoenix lacked depth and that he'd largely underwhelmed ever since spurning a golden opportunity in the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Hard to know what to expect but good by the coast so far.
Aaron Rai
Regimented Englishman who impressed to land the Wyndham Championship and is always a threat on classical golf courses like that one. More versatile than he's sometimes given credit for, though, and sure to be well-prepared; doesn't seem the type to turn up for a cheque and abandon his usual, meticulous approach. Despite that, wouldn't have this down as an ideal course and didn't play during October or November.
Robert MacIntyre
Unlike Rai, did keep going all the way to the DP World Tour Championship and while you sense he's running on empty, could be a factor here if he can dig deep enough. Course looks a likely good fit, wind isn't a problem, and top 25 all five starts since the TOUR Championship where he was by no means disgraced. Doing everything well and there are worse options for sure as he seeks to win third title of 2025.
Cameron Young
Much bigger price than 12 months ago and had gone well when third here in 2022. Good in the wind, power is always a plus and certainly capable of finally landing a first top-flight win in this, but does have to show that he's sharp enough having last been seen in August. No player in this field returns from a longer break and as he wasn't playing well back then, leap of faith required to expect him to play well now.
Brian Harman
Revealed at the RSM Classic that it's been a turbulent time off the course after one of his children was involved in an accident that saw a friend badly hurt. Did well in the circumstances to put up a respectable performance but does mean it's difficult to know what to expect, although first-round lead on debut last year, plus forecast, enough to suggest biggest prices on offer are on the generous side. Not been as bad this year as some seem to believe, anyway.
Keegan Bradley
2-1-0 at the Presidents Cup and now gearing up to captain the Ryder Cup side next year, which could steal his focus after Christmas. Might mean he's geared up to take advantage of this opportunity but 15th and 13th in two Albany appearances and wouldn't be one who wants it windy, even if very first PGA Tour win came in a gale. One of the least appealing options at the odds and there to be taken on in two-balls.
Nick Dunlap
Two wins in a stunning 2024 including one as an amateur back in January, which compelled him to make the switch. Impressed again when contending fifth at Southwind before decent TOUR Championship debut and iron play was again superb when mid-pack in the Sanderson Farms. All aspects of his game remain volatile so won't always look good on paper but talent there for all to see.
Sepp Straka
Made a fast start as a late entrant in 2022 and then runner-up last year, so must be of some interest having again received a late call-up. Form hasn't been spectacular lately but don't be put off by one-shot MC at the RSM Classic, because he's missed five cuts in six there and played well at the main course on a difficult Friday. The most appealing outsider despite some power and putting concerns.
Matthieu Pavon
Won the Farmers and contended for the US Open but best of 40th in four DP World Tour starts since the end of the PGA Tour season. Announced last week that he's changing coach, which will have surprised many, and looks correctly priced as the outsider of 20.
Verdict
As with Rory McIlroy in Dubai three weeks ago, it's very hard to imagine Scottie Scheffler finishing outside the first four or five and he's a very worthy 5/2 shot. That's a point shorter than Viktor Hovland last year, when the Norwegian was in pursuit of a hat-trick, but this field is weaker and Scheffler is superior. He is about the right price and has a big chance.
For context, you can back the next three in the betting at 5/2 combined and each makes some appeal. Justin Thomas is the most obvious but that's now reflected in the price, as he was 16/1 a week ago and has since been cut to 10s. The uncertainty surrounding the fact that he's just become a father might've been welcome had he flown under the radar but he's chalked up as if it's a positive, but the bigger issue is whether he can putt well enough to beat elite players.
That leaves us with LUDVIG ABERG and Patrick Cantlay and I find them hard to separate.
On the one hand, Cantlay has the course experience and was a little more consistent towards the end of the PGA Tour season, but on the other Aberg has played more recently, he's definitely been working hard on his game, and he might just be the more motivated of the two.
Cantlay was electric at the Presidents Cup when last playing competitively and is left out begrudgingly, with Aberg's immense driving too tantalising to turn away from given the scoring holes at Albany include a driveable par-four and five par-fives. He should like it here and bermuda greens aren't a problem given his RSM Classic win from 2023.
Indeed it was encouraging to see him again putt well during the final round of his title defence and that 64 may well set him up to prove the key challenger to Scheffler, although 50/1 that he and Cantlay fill the first two spots is worth a small go in the hope that Scheffler's putter does for him. Dual forecast markets aren't typically of interest pre-tournament, but with just 20 players this is an exception.
Robert MacIntyre is the pick from the middle portion of the market but I am slightly worried that he's put a lot into this year and seemed to be ready for a break when last seen in Dubai, so it's SEPP STRAKA who completes the staking plan.
Although he's lacking in power which I do see as a slight negative, the Austrian showed how well he can score here when chasing home Scheffler on his second appearance, having also offered promise when 10th as a late-arriving debutant in 2022.
He's not been too far away this autumn and his missed cut at the RSM Classic is no concern at all. The opposite, in fact: he played better than he usually does in that event, despite a bad draw, and even holed plenty of putts in round two. At 40s or so he's a nice each-way bet and we'll take him ahead of Harman, who is generally closer to the 28-33/1 mark.
Posted at 2000 GMT on 02/12/24
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