Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Genesis Scottish Open preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Genesis Scottish Open

2pts e.w. Shane Lowry at 35/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Max Homa at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Justin Thomas at 50/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Lucas Herbert at 70/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Ryan Fox at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Alex Noren at 125/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

The Renaissance is a modern golf course built close to some that have been around for centuries, almost since the renaissance in fact, and it's different things to different people. Some will love it, some might hate it; just as some golfers will benefit from playing here prior to the Open, others might be left wishing they'd taken in those nearby links courses or hopped over to Ireland to prepare.

But with sponsors Genesis helping to establish this as the premiere co-sanctioned event between the DP World Tour and the PGA Tour, most of those who are eligible have taken the opportunity to follow the path of Collin Morikawa and Cam Smith, in the hope that it will reach the same destination. Morikawa's chastening Scottish Open experience directly impacted his set-up before Royal St George's, while Smith's strong weekend primed him for St Andrews.

Jon Rahm is the main exception and in his absence, the other members of golf's big three are hard to split at the front of the betting, but it's quite right that Scottie Scheffler has just about taken over. We could spend all day analysing the incongruousness of a truly stunning run of ball-striking which has yielded just one trophy, but let's keep things simple: from tee-to-green, there is daylight between him and the rest, Rahm and Rory included.

While McIlroy has an ace up his sleeve next week in the shape of the course, he didn't like The Renaissance when he first saw it and it's a bit of a surprise he's back. Perhaps he recalls the Thursday 64 he carded in this event in 2014 and how ready he was to put everything together seven days later at Hoylake. Perhaps he's just run out of credits in these big events and couldn't sit out another one.

As for the dynamics of the Scottish Open in its new guise, last year probably told us plenty. Seven of the top nine were PGA Tour members and one of just two exceptions, Tom Kim, would soon become one. Jamie Donaldson, a veteran DP World Tour regular, was the outlier; his storming weekend never had him in the mix, but rewarded each-way backers at a massive price.

And you can go fishing for something similar again. There's rain and a fresh breeze waiting for players in North Berwick, and just as my colleague Andy Schooler always points out on the eve of a Grand Slam tennis tournament, the best players don't necessarily need an excuse to go through the motions. Many of them won't really care whether they leave here with a trophy or even a cheque, providing they feel prepared for the final major of 2023.

Strength in numbers, and we're talking real strength, means that we may nevertheless get an elite winner to follow Xander Schauffele. The top 25 players in the betting are PGA Tour members and whomever among them builds a platform will be focused singularly on this title come Sunday, especially with the money that's now up for grabs. The difficulty, as ever, is in working out which of them it might be.

To my eye it's SHANE LOWRY who stands out as the best value at 33/1.

• CLICK HERE to back Lowry with Sky Bet

Although it's Lowry's course debut, that's accounted for in the price and he does have a strong record in the Scottish Open, finishing fourth at Royal Aberdeen, contending to a point at both Gullane and Castle Stuart, and finishing seventh inland at the altogether different Loch Lomond.

Throw in several excellent performances in the Dunhill Links, plus wins in the Irish Open and the Open itself, and we know that Lowry is one of the world's best links golfers. The Renaissance may not quite be links in the purest sense, but it's a decent modernist impression and conditions will bring it closer to the style he so enjoys.

Lowry also arrives in rock-solid form. Four of his last five appearances have resulted in top-20 finishes, two of them in majors, and he's offered encouragement virtually every time he's played since an early-season blip which prompted a change in caddie and briefly required a period of bedding-in with his new one.

With three top-10 iron displays in the last six weeks, consistently strong driving and good scrambling stats in the very immediate past, Lowry looks as close as bookend 64s at the Travelers suggest. There, he spoke of how everything was where he wants it, and of his hope that it would all come together at 'the right time'. We all know he meant next week, but I don't mind betting that it happens a few days early.

Certainly, he's improved his putting to the point where we have to consider him a big threat for the Open at Royal Liverpool, scene of his first top-10 finish in a major championship, and granted a fair run with the draw I expect we'll see him in contention here first.

Can Thomas bounce back?

Although the PGA Tour only joined in officially last year, The Renaissance has been on the schedule since 2019 and as you'd expect, conditions have determined just how scoreable it is, and just how those scores are built.

In each of the last three renewals the weather has played its part, torrential rain in 2020, wind and rain in 2021, and the same again in 2022, so it's no surprise that we've seen several players with excellent short games thrive across every renewal since a bit of a shootout to kick things off in 2019.

I imagine our leaderboard this week will be similar and that's partly why I want to chance JUSTIN THOMAS, as strange as that may sound after his work around the green made him look hopelessly lost in the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

• CLICK HERE to back Thomas with Sky Bet

Much was made of that missed cut in a weak field, more than had been made of his top-10 finish in a strong one just days earlier. Remember, Thomas produced his best approach work and short-game stats of the entire year at the Travelers, clicking into gear after a slow start and leaving with plenty of positives.

Then came the first round in Detroit, where he hit 13 out of 14 fairways but was hopeless whenever he missed a green. It was an utterly bizarre display, reminiscent in fact of his 2020 Travelers effort which he followed with a play-off defeat, yet despite it he ranks 12th for the season in strokes-gained around the green.

Thomas's approach play and putting were good in round two of the Rocket Mortgage, where he shot 69, and while it has plainly been a poor season by his lofty standards, I wouldn't be losing sight of the fact his very best golf came two starts ago. Had he skipped the Rocket Mortgage Classic we certainly wouldn't be able to take 50/1.

Now he comes to The Renaissance, where he was ninth on debut and eighth in 2021, as the player on the FedEx Cup points bubble. Ranked 70th, Thomas cannot afford to think further ahead than these next four rounds, because he's under very real threat when it comes to making the Playoffs.

If he fails to, that would leave him needing a favour from Zach Johnson to be on that plane to Rome, even if I would be of the view that leaving Thomas out would be an act of extreme generosity for those of us in the blue and yellow of Europe.

So he's focused, he's course-proven, his best golf came two starts ago, and he's Justin Thomas. For my money that seems like a pretty good combination at 50/1 in a field which is strong but does not feature Rahm. He's well capable of winning in these conditions on this golf course and I can't let him go unbacked.

A similar case can be made for MAX HOMA, who just a few weeks ago was being punted at 28/1 for the US Open but now finds himself a 40/1 chance here in Scotland.

• CLICK HERE to back Homa with Sky Bet

Homa made a big Saturday move here last year before eventually settling for 16th, and that's despite a strange display with his irons. He was in fact the best driver in the field but among the worst in strokes-gained approach, typically the strongest part of his game.

It was clear nevertheless how much he enjoyed the experience and how much appreciation he has for playing here in Scotland. As Thomas had done in 2019, Homa found time between rounds to head over to North Berwick for 18 holes with friends, an experience he felt he couldn't miss out on.

As for the here and now, he produced a top-10 tee-to-green display in Detroit, following a narrow missed cut despite a second-round 65 in the Travelers where an opening 72 was likely a US Open hangover after his home game did not go as planned.

Before the US Open he'd managed top-10s either side of the PGA Championship so while we know by now his efforts in majors leave plenty of questions unanswered, his rank-and-file PGA Tour form is good. Nevertheless, like Thomas he can't quite be sure of a Ryder Cup spot just yet, so this is an important fortnight.

Homa is the sort to keep going in difficult conditions and, I think, to see real worth in winning the Scottish Open. At 40/1, he's a class act we can chance knowing that the weather could scupper best-laid plans.

Outsiders with place prospects

Along with 50/1 shot Sam Burns, I did toy with a number of huge outsiders because if you're going to land one in this sort of field, links-like, exposed conditions combined with the timing of the Scottish Open make it a likely candidate for an upset.

The performances of Brandon Wu, Kurt Kitayama, Cameron Tringale and Alex Smalley last year show that we don't just have to focus on European outsiders, in fact we might be wise not to, and all of these players had strong form by the coast on resort courses. In effect, that's what we're dealing with here.

Candidates to emulate them include Michael Kim, who loved his Open experience at Carnoustie in 2018 and was thrilled to earn his place at Hoylake. Kim has popped up a number of times in 2023, including when on the fringes at Pebble Beach and fifth in Puerto Rico, and it was only his putter which cost him a weekend tee-time at the John Deere.

Similarly, Ben Martin hit it well there and he has stacks of form by the sea at Harbour Town, Corales Puntacana and beyond. Back in 2014, Martin played really well on his Open debut and returned to the UK to finish 17th in the Scottish Open a year later, choosing to go there in search of one of the available Open spots.

No doubt he's intent on earning a return to Hoylake, a course he so enjoyed nine years ago, and I could see him nudging his way around here and coping better than some in the wind and rain.

Those are the most interesting US options while of the Europeans, I did consider Padraig Harrington, who has two top-20s at this course and whose short-game remains exceptional. In-form Marcel Siem, recent Open qualifier Matt Wallace and veteran Ross Fisher, whose putter is a huge problem it must be said, also made the shortlist of fanciful options who would make for a fine week if able to sneak into seventh.

Winning will likely prove beyond all of them but not necessarily LUCAS HERBERT, who rates the pick of the each-way bets away from the big names providing you can get more than 50s.

• CLICK HERE to back Herbert with Sky Bet

Herbert isn't a player we can ever fully rely on, but he has absolutely everything in his favour here, whether that's form, conditions, the course, his class or his short-game. The very straightforward case in his favour has few holes.

I'll start with his class, because I think that's the most relevant part of the argument. Herbert very quickly became a PGA Tour winner after earning his card, and look what happens when he comes back: his form away from that circuit reads 10-3-3-1 since he was forced to withdraw from the Australian PGA with an injury.

Before that he'd gone 18-21-9-MC-15-MC-5-23 from January 2021 to the December 2022 and on the DP World Tour, he's now won three of his last 30-odd events, taking in the Dubai Desert Classic, Irish Open, and ISPS Handa Championship in Japan earlier this year, where he defied jet-lag to edge to a narrow victory.

Herbert's previous two DPWT wins involved coping with bad weather, particularly on a foul Sunday in Dubai, and he thrives in the wind as he's since displayed by winning in Bermuda. No doubt that's largely because of his short-game, which is inconsistent but regularly of a very high standard. Ten times in his last 40 starts he's been in the top-10 for SG: around the green and his low season-long ranking is misleading.

Last time out he was 15th in the Travelers, ending a quiet run of often narrow missed cuts, and that was timely and relevant. After he was 19th in his sole previous start in the same event two years ago, Herbert came back to Europe, won the Irish Open, and finished fourth in the Scottish Open, again finding that jolt of improvement for the drop in grade.

With his driving far from as wild as it can be lately and his approach play at River Highlands the best it's been all year, this red-hot putter looks every inch a potential threat to the favourites at a course where he has plenty of eye-catching form, not least fourth place despite a third-round 79 in 2020.

Subsequently in the mix when fourth again in 2021, a stronger renewal broadly on a par with this one, and having made a good start last year, Herbert is one player who loves The Renaissance. He is well worth backing to show that once more.

Fox on the prowl on return to Scotland

We learned about Keith Mitchell's Scottish connections when he came over last summer and this quality operator, a former Honda Classic champion, won't mind conditions. He's respected at a big price along with Cam Davis, who is fulfilling his potential now, but I just prefer RYAN FOX.

• CLICK HERE to back Fox with Sky Bet

Fox was a bit of a disappointment both here and in the Open in 2022 but let's not forget he was in the middle of a busy run and desperate to make the Presidents Cup. The New Zealander would later confess that he was running on fumes by the time of the Open so we can forgive him a lacklustre Scottish Open, too.

It's possible he's just not that fond of The Renaissance but it's still early days given his jolt of improvement over the past 18 months, and if we go back further in this event's history he has a couple of top-six finishes to go with a play-off defeat in the Irish Open, part of a strong seaside CV.

It made sense when he captured the Dunhill Links last October and returning to this event fresher than he's been in the past, I can see Fox improving massively and underlining how far he's come. I just can't stress enough how impressive it is to have managed seven top-30s in nine PGA Tour starts since March, form which reads really well as he returns to more familiar surroundings.

Fox's T43 at the US Open can also be marked up as his father-in-law passed away during that week, which is why we've not seen him in action since. It is far from the reason for selecting him, but Fox dedicated last year's Dunhill Links win to his former partner in the event, Shane Warne, and I've no doubt he's good enough to produce a repeat performance even in this company.

Swede to land Scottish Open double?

Finally, I've been taken with ALEX NOREN's improvement lately and the 2016 champion is worth backing to double up.

• CLICK HERE to back Noren with Sky Bet

Noren was 30th on his debut at The Renaissance last year and is probably playing a little better now, having followed 12th back home in Sweden with a narrow missed cut at the US Open, then ninth place in the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Throughout the past month his approach work has returned to something like the levels we saw when he chased home Fox at St Andrews, then finished second again in the DP World Tour Championship, and began 2023 with fifth place at Yas Links in Abu Dhabi.

Noren's DP World Tour form reads 2-2-5-12 since this event last year and the fundamentals of his game are back firing, with those improved displays with his irons complemented by typically assured putting, and a season-long ranking of eighth in strokes-gained around the green.

Off the tee is where he's at his weakest but Benjamin Hebert nearly won this when ranking 63rd in that department and each year they've been to The Renaissance, multiple poor drivers have wound up inside the top eight. It looks like something Noren could overcome if at his best, and I felt the way he hit the ball at LACC confirmed he's not at all far away from it.

He's another European with eyes on the Ryder Cup and after big moves were made by several of his rivals, Noren will recognise that the next fortnight could be pivotal. As a confirmed links specialist who at the moment won't be making the Playoffs, it's one he may feel he simply has to take advantage of if he's to feature in Rome come September.

Posted at 1835 BST on 10/07/23

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