Ben Coley's golf betting tips: FedEx St. Jude Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: FedEx St. Jude Championship

5pts win Scottie Scheffler at 7/1 (General)

2pts e.w. Collin Morikawa at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1.5pts e.w. Sam Burns at 40/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1.5pts e.w. Cam Young at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

0.5pt e.w. Davis Riley at 250/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Things can be flawed and still deliver what their creators intended. One example is the FedEx Cup, whose top-heavy points system rewards weaker scheduling. Turn up and finish second in Bermuda (OK, I've made that sound simple) and you're about halfway to making the Playoffs. Finish top-20 in three of the four majors, as Shane Lowry did, and you're about halfway to second place in Bermuda.

Another example is Southwind, which in many ways is about as artificial as they come, its thick rough, multiple water hazards and small greens providing a test not of thought nor creativity but pure execution. You could argue that it isn't a place the best golfers in the world should be playing, yet there is no denying that when it comes to separating them on Sunday, the kind of holes you'll find here often make for fascinating viewing.

That point has been rammed home in recent seasons as this event has taken on elite status, first as a World Golf Championship, then as part of the Playoffs. When Robert Garrigus took seven at the 18th hole to blow a three-shot lead at the start of the last decade we might reasonably have assumed that was peak Southwind, but things have been even more spectacular since the field strength increased.

Two years ago, Abraham Ancer won a play-off he had no right to be in, because Harris English was 20-under with eight to play and Ancer never got past 16. English didn't even make the play-off, but he did beat Bryson DeChambeau on the back-nine, the latter having come home in 41 to his 40. Cam Smith double-bogeyed the last after laying up into a pond and he'd been on the winning score at the time.

Then last year, Will Zalatoris looked to have blown a golden opportunity when his approach to the third play-off hole came to rest between wall and green, perilously close to the water. Sepp Straka proceeded to go one worse and hit his ball in the drink when anywhere on the green might've been enough, allowing Zalatoris to capitalise and then taunt those who'd mocked his wobbly putting stroke.

If you happen to be a professional golfer and you're feeling the pinch, Southwind is just about the last place you'd want to be.

Number one can prove top dog

It's that which makes this arguably the number one course on the circuit when it comes to the demands on a player's long-game. Nine of the last 12 champions led the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green, which is a staggering return. Justin Thomas won by three shots putting badly and while the best putter did win here in 2019, it's extremely difficult to get by on that club alone.

More likely is that our champion's approach work in particular has been top-class, something we've seen with Daniel Berger previously as well as Thomas, Ancer and Zalatoris, and try as I might I can't get away from the favourite. Maybe it's time for SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER to win again.

• CLICK HERE to back Scheffler with Sky Bet

It is very difficult to sum up just how superior Scheffler has been from tee-to-green this season, but my best attempt is this: the gap between Scheffler in first and Rory McIlroy in second is 0.669 strokes per round. That same gap covers more than 70 players from those ranked in the 30s to those who are about average. It's a small number on paper, but a wide margin in practice.

Scheffler is both the best driver and the best iron player on the PGA Tour this season and the last time he failed to deliver a top 30 performance in the tee-to-green stats was March 2022. What happened then? He was caught on the wrong side of the draw at Sawgrass, something he would put right when winning The PLAYERS 12 months later.

Now, the negative explains why he's somehow not added to that title in the five months that have since passed. Scheffler has eight top-five finishes in 11 appearances during this run and went close in two majors, but five horrendous putting displays and several other modest ones have made it a desperately frustrating sequence.

Second in the FedEx Cup standings having been the man to catch last year, he has three more opportunities to ensure this doesn't feel like a wasted campaign, absurd as that may sound given his Sawgrass display. And given the courses involved, and the nature of this one in particular, the FedEx St. Jude Championship is his best shot at usurping Jon Rahm in first place and heading to East Lake with a lead to defend.

To do so he will need to putt better than he has been and there's no denying that is far from a given. However, he was much better in the final round of the Open when last seen, ranking 16th, and bermuda is probably his best surface. That's certainly the case when it comes to his winning displays and at this particular golf course, he could putt like he did at the Travelers or the US Open or the US PGA or the Byron Nelson and still win comfortably.

Things are rarely so simple, but the decision to put him up was. He's the man they all have to beat having contended here before he was a PGA Tour winner and since demonstrated that his golfing education in Texas has helped to make courses like these ideal. Bay Hill, Sawgrass and even Scottsdale all count as good pointers and Southwind is a venue he can hit to death.

Besides Scheffler, the only other player who is gaining more than a stroke per round with their approaches this season is COLLIN MORIKAWA, and this looks a good time to back him again.

• CLICK HERE to back Morikawa with Sky Bet

We were on Morikawa when he came within a whisker of winning the Rocket Mortgage Classic and that was another reminder that a missed cut last time out really shouldn't worry anyone too much. His form before winning reads 4-MC-20-43-71-7 and more so than most top-class golfers he's capable of wild swings over a very short period.

That was in evidence here last year, when he followed back-to-back missed cuts with fifth place, and Morikawa has played well on all three Southwind starts having been 20th and 26th in the first two. That he's done so without his best approach work can be viewed in one of two ways, but certainly gives us the potential for a big jolt of improvement.

He's won on bermuda greens in Florida when ranking 10th in putting and while that club hasn't spiked since January, it has been very solid for the most part of late. At the Rocket Mortgage he was 24th, enough to have won the tournament had things fallen in his favour, while he was on course for something a tad better when forced to withdraw when in the mix at the Memorial, a course where he'd won before.

From a tee-to-green perspective, Southwind looks a very good fit and he putted well here last year, which to some degree allays concerns over the fact that bermuda wouldn't necessarily be his chosen surface. Having missed the cut by a shot in the Open, just as he'd done at the Travelers before almost winning in Detroit, I expect him to bounce back and at the very least produce a top-level ball-striking display.

Burns best on bermuda

Harris English is a past champion who caught the eye based on his Wyndham performance last week, where for once his short-game let him down. Capable of the sort of approach stats we'll likely need and a contender here twice in his last three visits, he's interesting at 80/1 with the new dad factor very much in play, not to mention the fact he's bound to have been inspired by Brian Harman's Open heroics given their closeness.

However at shorter odds, I'm more inclined to back SAM BURNS, a player who like Morikawa will be fuelled by a desire to make the Ryder Cup side – something Thomas referred to last week as of greater importance than the Playoffs themselves, and quite right too.

• CLICK HERE to back Burns with Sky Bet

Thomas's dramatic near-miss seems to have kept him right in the mix for a wild card but the next fortnight will be vital, with so many hoping to enhance their claims and Thomas hoping they don't. The fact that Morikawa isn't a guarantee says everything about the depth of this US side.

Burns is bordering on outsider status having endured a generally disappointing run away from the WGC-Match Play, but the fact that two of the final three events take place in the south is hugely to his advantage and he's a prime candidate to make a late bid for the 12th slot.

Born in Louisiana, Burns has won twice in Florida, twice in Texas, once in Mississippi and once in Georgia so far in his career, and while he's a good putter on all surfaces, he's an exceptional one on bermuda.

That's why we should always be prepared to take a generous view of his performances outside of this comfort zone, which include 32nd in the US Open and 19th in the Scottish Open before a predictably modest display at Hoylake added to a poor run in majors generally.

He's since returned to action in North Carolina, where he produced his best approach play figures of 2023 when 14th in the Wyndham Championship, together with his best putting play since the RBC Heritage which takes place over the border in South Carolina on very similar greens.

This might just be an ideal way to prepare, a route taken by Zalatoris and Straka last year it should be noted, and for Burns it's the icing on the cake given that he was runner-up in this when selected on these pages two years ago. Last year he finished 20th, putting much worse than we'd have anticipated having arrived rusty following a holiday in Italy and a wedding in Utah.

On both these occasions he was one of the top 10 iron players in the field so the timing of last week's improvement is excellent, and just to reinforce the point about these familiar conditions, his form in the southeast this year shows a win, two top-10s and a handful of other solid displays, versus just one never-in-the-mix top-10 elsewhere.

Burns first emerged with eighth place in the Honda Classic, an event which already tied in well with this one thanks to Berger, before Straka almost did the double. It's another water-laden course with bermuda greens and a premium on approach work, and Burns at his best has all the tools to win at both.

At 19th in the FedEx Cup standings he needs something over the next fortnight if he's to arrive at East Lake with a realistic chance. Like his close friend Scheffler, this looks the right tournament of the two upcoming.

Southern comfort

That Honda link did point me to Eric Cole at a big price but this is a big ask for a rookie and maiden who drives it poorly far too often. Perhaps a better option is Tom Hoge, a top-20 finisher in two of his last three starts and a contender here twice early on in his career, though again this might be a grade beyond him.

The outsider I do like the look of is DAVIS RILEY, whose ball-striking display at the Wyndham was totally undermined by some hopeless chipping and putting to make it back-to-back missed cuts.

• CLICK HERE to back Riley with Sky Bet

Undeniably frustrating to follow, there's a strong chance Riley finds a way to undo whatever good comes of his performance this week but I do think he's overpriced given what are ideal conditions, particularly having driven the ball so well to finish 31st on his debut here last August.

Like Burns, he's much more at home in this part of the US than the Midwest, where he showed plenty of good signs during June and early July and particularly with his driver, which remained strong in Scotland and England, too.

Eighth at Bay Hill came after he'd hit the ball well enough to do better than 29th in the Honda, and this followed a run of missed cuts on the west coast. He'd come to life in Florida during his rookie season, too, with second place there followed by fourth at Colonial in Texas, his two best chances to win so far.

He's since done that, in a manner of speaking, by capturing the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with partner Nick Hardy, and while he's without a top-30 finish on his own since then, the way he struck it at Sedgefield last week is enough to consider him a live one at huge odds in this 70-man field.

I'll end on a more serious note with CAM YOUNG, looking to emulate his Wake Forest teammate Zalatoris by breaking through at Southwind.

• CLICK HERE to back Young with Sky Bet

The similarities don't end there, as Young also arrives in good form following two top-10 finishes in his last three starts, with a missed cut at the 3M Open easy enough to forgive following his contending performance in the Open before that.

Young gained a staggering 16-plus strokes with his ball-striking alone at Hoylake, evidence that his long-game is well and truly back. To contend and finish eighth in the Open while putting so poorly perhaps explains why Fred Couples seems to believe his Ryder Cup place is already guaranteed despite a generally quiet season.

That putter is the issue but it's been good either side of the Open, first in the John Deere and then in Minnesota, so while bermuda grass is a potential problem I don't mind giving him the benefit of the doubt based on three decent putting weeks in five starts in Florida, one of which came when 16th in the Honda Classic.

Also runner-up at Jackson Country Club behind Burns, plus a contender at Bay Hill in the spring, he looks a good fit for Southwind and that feeling is enhanced by the fact that he ranked second in strokes-gained tee-to-green on his first look at the course.

More of the same and he might not need to putt any better than Zalatoris did to have a chance come Sunday, when this event will likely deliver the kind of fireworks that have been missing from a few others recently. Perfection, as any golfer will know, is very hard to find.

Posted at 1100 BST on 08/08/23

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.