Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Dutch Open preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Dutch Open

2pts e.w. Rasmus Hojgaard at 28/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Julien Brun at 66/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Haotong Li at 80/1 (Sky Bet, Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Wilco Nienaber at 150/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

0.5pt e.w. Lucas Bjerregaard at 300/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

0.5pt e.w. Chris Wood at 400/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Golf is packed with small incidents that are difficult to predict but have huge implications. Some of them are so hard to predict as to be best described as random, like a skulled wedge hitting the flag or a ball bouncing against the camber of the fairway. For most, even those who still attempt to make predictions pay, this is part of why we love the sport, and why anyone who thinks there is a better game on this planet is frankly embarrassing themselves.

Last year's Dutch Open would at first glance appear to be one of the most random tournaments of the year. It was won by a player ranked outside the world's top 700, who was without a top-10 finish in more than six injury-plagued years, a run of 60 tournaments. And he didn't just win: Kristoffer Broberg was 23-under through 54 holes, then looked like he'd blown it, only to chip in, regather himself, and pull clear once more.

On the one hand, it's easy to argue that as a form guide it is utterly worthless. The field was weak, the course was new, and something peculiar happened – so what? On the other, while Broberg would've been hard to find even if we'd known then what we know now, his victory does begin to make more sense when you reflect upon the course, and the type of challenge it presented.

It didn't take long to realise that Bernardus, a 7,425-yard Kyle Phillips design, would need something other than the calm, soft, warm and dry conditions we were presented with in order to properly defend itself. Chiefly, that's because it offered little to no punishment off the tee, allowing players like Broberg to spray it everywhere and recover. The way it played in 2021, this is the epitome of a second-shot course, though Broberg's win had more to do with one of the deadliest displays of putting ever recorded.

Behind him, we see a clearer picture of a layout that levels the playing field between players like Broberg who hit it all over the place off the tee, and those like Alejandro Canizares, who is accurate but short. Matti Schmid ought to build a good career on his marriage of power and precision and he split them for his best DP World Tour finish, those behind this trio making for a driving smorgasbord. Every one of the top 10, however, relied on good second shots.

Indeed when I looked through the 2021 stats, Bernardus was the course where driving mattered the least and approach play mattered the most, and there's no reason this shouldn't continue. Phillips has designed a course which is heathland in ambition, with some of his trademark links-style features, but ultimately it's made for amateurs and doesn't seek to put them under pressure from the tee. The only difference from last year to this might be that the forecast suggests we'll get a breeze strong and consistent enough to keep Broberg's 25-under out of reach.

Brun looks best of strong French challenge

Tougher conditions are almost enough to get Romain Langasque back in the staking plan. He was the best player in the field over the final three rounds of the Belfry, albeit that might be little consolation to those who backed him. He played well here last year, has some strong form on similar courses such as The Renaissance, and if he makes the cut ought to threaten as he has done so often lately.

Compatriot Victor Perez also merits a second glance given that his long-game is right where it needs to be, and that he's won a shootout on links courses which correlates well with this. However, fellow Frenchman JULIEN BRUN might just upstage these two now that he has a bit of space off the tee and he gets the headline vote.

Brun has been a consistent leaderboard presence this year, missing just a couple of cuts and bagging five top-25 finishes. The best of those came last time out when eighth at the British Masters, and he's done all this despite losing strokes off the tee in each and every start so far in 2022 as he works to get his new Callaway driver dialled in.

That tells you what's holding him back and therefore highlights how well suited he could be to Bernardus, which is far less penal than the Belfry and should help him maximise the benefits of quality approach play. Brun currently ranks 17th in strokes-gained approach among those who've played 12 or more rounds this year, marking himself down as one of the standout players on the circuit in this department.

In what's his rookie season at DP World Tour level, he's also 34th around the green and 14th in putting so again, if he could drive the ball to an average standard he'd be threatening to win even more often than he has. Here in the Netherlands, it just might not matter and having proven his effectiveness in the wind, the circumstances look ideal.

Brun has always had huge potential, considered one of the brightest young stars in French golf as an amateur, and it's all come together over the last couple of years with a move to Prague, a change in coach, and a renewed dedication to getting to where he wants to be. Now established on the Tour, this looks a really good chance to go and contend.

Great Dane best of the favourites

The top of the market ought to feel very familiar by now but three of the big names are flying in from Southern Hills, all having shown promise without completing the job in the PGA Championship.

Of them, it's Bernd Wiesberger whose long game suggests another win might not be far away and he did putt better last week, but the bottom line is he hasn't gained strokes on the green since August. To demonstrate what that would mean were he to do it again, he finished second that week having blown a big opportunity.

Adrian Meronk's main weapon is his driver so any course that levels the playing field off the tee harms him, and the one I keep coming back to is the man who capitalised on Wiesberger's Crans collapse, RASMUS HOJGAARD.

• CLICK HERE to back Hojgaard with Sky Bet

The Dane of course is a good driver himself but not to the level of Meronk or his brother Nicolai, and you could in fact argue it's the club he could do with squeezing just a little more out of. This year for instance he's been among the best iron players and showcased the best short-game at times, but so far he's not ranked higher than 30th off the tee.

Here, his occasional wide might go unpunished and while his putter has been hit and miss, the key factor in his favour is that deadly approach play he's capable of. It is what helped power that win over Wiesberger in Switzerland and his charging victory at the Belfry in 2020, and on both occasions he'd shown promising signs immediately beforehand.

With this in mind, the fact that he ranked second in strokes-gained approach at the Belfry, returning some of the best numbers of his career, could prove to be a major pointer and while there's a small worry that he might prefer a parkland test, his breakthrough victory did come in Mauritius and he was sixth by the sea on the PGA Tour in March.

Also 20th at Yas Links, sixth in Oman with with top-10 finishes elsewhere in the Middle East, the young Dane is gradually showing how adaptable his game is and I don't think we can quibble with the price here. If Wiesberger, Ryan Fox and Thomas Pieters are vulnerable then there's surely nobody who is more likely than Hojgaard to capitalise.

Can Wilco put four rounds together?

It's not difficult to imagine compatriot Thorbjorn Olesen going in again as he's got plenty of good form on Phillips-designed courses, plays well in the wind and appreciates a bit of space off the tee. He'd be the most appealing of those from Nicolai upwards in the betting, with the latter still seemingly in need of a course where he can drive everyone else into submission through his prodigious length.

Now, with this in mind in might seem incongruous to select WILCO NIENABER, but at three-figure prices I'm very happy to take on board all the risks his raw power bring.

• CLICK HERE to back Nienaber with Sky Bet

Seven top-25s but four missed cuts so far this year underline how volatile the young South African is, and you might say his performance last week summed up the Nienaber experience. He led after round one in Spain despite being on the wrong side of a huge draw bias, and then faded to 48th, which hardly inspires confidence.

However, he'll have been forced to club down plenty in extremely testing conditions there and Bernardus might just be a much better fit for a player who has shown some promising signs under exposed, links-like conditions, but where scoring is lower. Nienaber played nicely here last year to bolster that view, finishing 22nd, and it was the first time he'd made a DP World Tour cut in five months.

On balance he looks in a better place this time, having been 10th and 12th in back-to-back events at this level as recently as March, and it's interesting to note he had his coach on the bag last week. Hopefully that change might just spark him into life again and with four par-fives to attack, there's enough juice in the price to take a chance.

Continuing the theme of huge talents who can be a little ragged at times, HAOTONG LI can bounce back from a missed cut under very different circumstances at the Belfry.

• CLICK HERE to back Li with Sky Bet

The two-time DP World Tour winner looked like he might disappear altogether when suffering a miserable time of things throughout most of 2021, his driver having become a serious issue. At the Cazoo Classic last August, he lost 16 strokes off the tee in two rounds, which in layman's terms means he went through several sleeves of balls.

But buoyed by an overdue return home where he was immediately competitive again, Li then came back to the DP World Tour and finished 14th on his very next start, firing an opening 64 at the Phillips-designed Kingsbarns in the Dunhill Links. Formerly placed in the Open, his links form is there for all to see and he's also been third at Verdura, another exposed, resort course designed by Phillips, on what was his sole trip to Sicily.

When you throw in the fact his Dunhill Links record was good even before last year (fifth and 23rd), and that he's been 20th and 24th in two tries in this event and on similar courses, suddenly this begins to look like a great event to complete the comeback. Li's resurgence can be seen not just in two top-six finishes this year, but the fact he's gone from giving away massive ground off the tee, to being among the best drivers in two of his last three starts.

With his approach play outstanding at its best, such as when leading the field in the Ras al Khaimah Championship in February, and his putter having been good every week this year, Li looks sure to keep climbing back to where he was, his Open third and Dubai Desert Classic win marking him down as one of the most capable players in this field.

It might be his debut at Bernardus but it looks to me like he'll love the place, and at 80/1 he'd be my favourite bet this week.

Gavin Green is another big talent putting the pieces back together but he opened with a round of 85 here last year and I'd be more interested in Kiradech Aphibarnrat, who returned from some solid golf in the US to finish second at Wentworth last year. He'll be looking to repeat the trick having made seven of his last eight cuts on the PGA Tour, though I suspect we'll see flashes rather than anything sustained from the popular Thai.

Instead, I'll take two serious fliers on LUCAS BJERREGAARD and CHRIS WOOD, to minimum stakes.

• CLICK HERE to back Bjerregaard with Sky Bet

Bjerregaard is a Dunhill Links winner whose other DP World Tour title came on an exposed, resort course in Portugal, where aggressive play and birdies by the bucketload has generally been the formula.

Since making a splash in the 2019 Match Play his career has stumbled, to put it mildly, with just two top-10 finishes to his name. However, both came under similar conditions, first when failing to convert a halfway lead at Fairmont St Andrews, a tame links course where Grant Forrest won in 24-under, and then when runner-up back in Portugal.

Also 12th in Spain, there were plenty of good signs late last year only for 2022 to bring about a return to the problems he'd faced, his driver in particular costing him far too many shots and his iron play often making matters worse.

If that all sounds like good reason to swerve him then consider the positives: he gets space off the tee, would definitely be a Bernardus fit at his best, and last time out produced his best approach play in years, with his next best statistics having been produced when second to Pieters last November.

In fact, all aspects of his game bar the driver were good in Belgium, at a course which was tight and penal. He'd actually driven the ball to a better-than-average standard in two of his previous five starts and my hope is that the nature of this course allows the other aspects of his game to shine, which might just see him threaten if he can keep it going with his irons.

Wood is in a similar predicament, the injuries which have undermined what promised to be a brilliant career playing a part in some swing troubles. He has for a long time now struggled badly off the tee and, as with Bjerregaard, the likelihood is that remains true even at this week's venue.

• CLICK HERE to back Wood with Sky Bet

But Wood's iron play is still very good at times, as we saw last time and when he ranked sixth in Qatar. He's strong around the green, too, ranking 44th this season, and three times since the start of last year has been one of the top five putters in the field. More recently, he's gained strokes in each of his last three starts and the message is similar: apart from the driver, his game is very competitive.

Wood's Qatar win and Sicily runner-up finish hint at how much he'd have enjoyed this course at his best, as does his record in the Open (two top-fives) and the Dunhill Links, while he's got a good book of form in this event including second place at The Dutch, too.

Last year he'd missed nine cuts in 12 on arrival but played much better for 32nd place, sitting 18th at halfway. Earlier that summer he'd also been right on the fringes in a high-class Scottish Open and it's on wide, links-like courses that we're most likely to see flashes of the talent which took him to BMW PGA glory and the Ryder Cup team back in 2016.

It may be that last year's Dutch Open was nothing more than a random tournament we should completely disregard, but I can see logic in amongst the chaos. At big prices, Wood and Bjerregaard are two who have profiles similar to that of Broberg, and maybe lightning can strike twice.

Posted at 1730 BST on 23/05/22

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