Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Dubai Desert Classic preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Dubai Desert Classic

3pts e.w. Rasmus Hojgaard at 25/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1.5pts e.w. Nicolai Hojgaard at 50/1 (Betfred, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Tom McKibbin at 66/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Laurie Canter at 66/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. Ivan Cantero at 500/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

When Netflix brought their cameras and their production team from F1 to golf, had they also brought with them the title of that breakout sports series they wouldn't have been far wrong. Drive to Survive would be a far better maxim for golf in 2025 than the one about putting, because while we know that approaches and putts so often dictate the outcome of an event, it's driving which can make or break careers.

Almost without exception, if you find a player who has fallen off the face of the earth, chances are their problems begin off the tee. That's what almost did for Brendon Todd, for example, and that's what's currently happening to Taylor Montgomery, one of the best putters in the world yet unable to hit putts of consequence because it's simply taken him too many shots to get there. Drive it as he is and you're cooked.

Strictly on a numbers basis, off-the-tee stats rarely define a tournament, but there's overwhelming evidence that here at the Dubai Desert Classic, we can apply that same qualifier: the idea that if you don't drive the ball really well, you've got a problem. Last year's podium was made up of the three best drivers in a field of 126 and in the six years of strokes-gained data, we're still waiting for a champion who ranked outside the top 10.

Now, six years isn't much to go on, but this fact does set Emirates Golf Club apart. Yas Links, Abu Dhabi, Eichenried, Wentworth, the Belfry, Al Hamra, Green Eagle, even the Earth Course down the road – pick your favourite DP World Tour venue and someone has overcome a less-than-elite driving display to win, but not here. The roll-of-honour also features some of the finest drivers of a ball this fine golf tour has had.

And all this makes sense. The Majlis Course isn't easy, but it does afford you six scoring opportunities: holes two, three, 10, 13, 17 and 18, four par-fives and two par-fours which long hitters can drive. Three par-fives feature greens which are hard to hold, the other requiring a slightly more nuanced approach with a fairway wood around the corner. But it really is hugely advantageous to drive it high and far and, ideally, right-to-left.

That sounds a lot like Rory McIlroy, doesn't it? It's 16 years since he won his very first professional title right here and, now a four-time champion despite missing two good opportunities, this is right up there with the courses at which he's most comfortable. Last year saw him win at the Majlis, at Quail Hollow, and then at the Earth Course. Anything short of a top-10 finish here would be a big surprise.

If there's a chink in the armour, it could be that McIlroy has won once in 17 return appearances after Christmas, but this is a myopic way to view that record. He has also been inside the top five in 14 of these 17, runner-up in six, and the win came when he began the season not in Abu Dhabi, South Africa or California, but here in the Dubai Desert Classic.

By a distance, he's the man to beat, but we were on at 9/2 in a smaller and slightly weaker field not long ago and at 7/2, with Jon Rahm adding a complicating factor, the price looks about right.

Rahm is making his overdue debut in the event and has been off a while so my pick of the favourites is Tyrrell Hatton, who sounded particularly determined when speaking at the Hero Cup. His course record is better than that of Tommy Fleetwood, even if the latter would seem more obviously suited to it and now resides in Dubai, but driver isn't Hatton's best club and he too is there to be taken on.

I'll do so with RASMUS HOJGAARD first of all.

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Winner of the Irish Open last September and then runner-up in the DP World Tour Championship, Rasmus has battled McIlroy twice lately and impressed on both occasions. That Irish Open win in particular was a big deal and while there was some fortune involved, by the time they faced off again in Dubai, it looked like he'd grown an inch or two.

Securing his PGA Tour card there, a big year awaits with the Ryder Cup an obvious goal and while it looks like it started badly in the Team Cup, I wouldn't be so sure.

It was a bit odd to see the Europeans stick to the same pairings each day and Hojgaard was tasked with holding the hand of Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, no doubt a late change of plan following the withdrawal of twin brother Nicolai.

That may have unsettled him but most of all, it looks like it was too much, too soon for Neergaard-Petersen, who suffered a heavy singles defeat to round off a tough experience. Friday's fourballs may be most telling: Neergaard-Petersen's score counted on just three holes; Rasmus by contrast made six birdies and only one mistake, which came at the final hole of a narrow defeat.

Whatever the minor details, playing in the Team Cup could be a big advantage. Victor Perez had done so before his win in the Abu Dhabi Championship two years ago, while McIlroy's victory here last year came after the small-field Dubai Invitational in which runner-up Adrian Meronk had also taken part. Third-placed Cameron Young meanwhile had played in The Sentry on the PGA Tour.

With Rahm and McIlroy both making their reappearances, perhaps there will prove an advantage for the likes of Hojgaard over them, but certainly you'd think they'll have one over the rest of the field. Essentially, with two exceptions, the best players in Europe got to warm up at a broadly similar golf course over in the UAE, giving them a competitive edge which we may well see put to use.

Hojgaard's record at the Majlis is improving, with three top-20s from his last four appearances, the latest ninth place a year ago despite his long-game being short of the standards we've come to expect. He's since taken some significant strides off the tee, driving the ball longer and better than before, and the correlating form he now has via the Earth Course (and the Belfry, I'd argue) makes for a compelling proposition.

He signed off the Team Cup with two birdies in three holes to avoid defeat and on the basis of recent evidence, a good putting week puts him right in the mix. The last five occasions on which Hojgaard has putted well, he has a fourth, a third, a second, and a first. Don't be surprised if he takes another big step towards a place alongside McIlroy in the Ryder Cup this September.

Twins to peak?

Among the favourites, Robert MacIntyre does have two starts under his belt already this year, both of them in Hawaii, both of them highly encouraging at least as far as his long-game goes. How he copes with the journey across to Dubai may determine whether he's able to add a third top-10 finish at a course he loves, in part because as a left-hander he can power a fade around several key doglegs.

Fellow lefty Akshay Bhatia could emulate Young (and Bryson DeChambeau even) in contending here on debut while Min Woo Lee is among the best drivers in the field. I'm near certain he'll build on a slightly underwhelming 2024, but there weren't enough positives at the end of it to be siding with him at 33s given concerns surrounding not only his troublesome approach play, but even his putting.

Preference is for NICOLAI HOJGAARD, who withdrew last week due to illness. That of course is a concern but while injury isn't something I'd quickly overlook, it seems he was just feeling a little under the weather and at 50/1 or bigger, I'm happy to take on board the risk he's still struggling.

• CLICK HERE to back Nicolai Hojgaard with Sky Bet

For that price, we get a former winner of the DP World Tour Championship and the Ras al Khaimah, two more Middle East courses made for strong drivers. And we get a player who produced the best tee-to-green figures of his burgeoning career right here last year, finishing seventh despite ranking 71st in putting among the 74 who made the cut.

Runner-up at Torrey Pines on his next start and then a contender at Augusta, Hojgaard's steep rate of improvement then began to plateau through a quiet summer, before at last he started to show big signs of improvement in his powerhouse long-game towards the end of the year. It just wasn't quite enough to make the field in Dubai and defend that title he'd won a year earlier.

We've seen him once since, again driving the ball extremely well to finish 24th in the Nedbank, and that made it five top-25s in as many starts dating back to the Open de France. He looked like he was very close to winning again, or at least getting in the mix for the first time since he hit the front on the Saturday of the Masters.

As I've said, missing the Team Cup is a negative and it denies him a competitive outing, but he'd been preparing in Dubai and was back out on the course on Monday morning, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. At his best, which he appeared close to at the end of last year, he'd be the biggest danger to the big four. Indeed when he won the DP World Tour Championship, it was as a well-backed 16/1 shot.

Nicolai aside my focus was very much on those Team Cup players and, with six of them absent, that leaves 14 to choose from. It would be fair to say I considered each of them including Nicolai's late replacement, Julien Guerrier, who is a strong driver as so many of them are. Among the Europeans, he was behind only Hojgaard and Romain Langasque on my shortlist and is a fair bit bigger in the betting.

Preference though is for two from the winning side, starting with LAURIE CANTER.

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He was excellent last week, capping his performance with a thumping singles win over Langasque and clearly revelling in it all. I wonder whether he felt a bit of redemption, too, having given up a big chance to earn a full LIV Golf spot at the very same golf course little more than a year before. It's funny how things work out: had he taken that opportunity, all the good things that have followed on the tour he grew up watching may not have.

Anyway, a full DP World Tour member with a winner's exemption owing to his tenacious success in Germany last summer, Canter should be set for a big season and could yet emerge as a Ryder Cup option. That won't be easy, not without access to the majors and the PGA Tour, but his prowess off the tee, fundamental to the case this week, is something Europe really can't have enough of at a course like Bethpage.

In the here and now, it could see him emerge as a weekend contender having done so when fourth in 2021, weeks after he'd been in with a chance entering the closing stretch of the DP World Tour Championship. To reiterate, these two courses play similarly and favour top-notch drivers, which Canter very much is.

Indeed across three starts here, Canter averages over 1.3 strokes-gained off-the-tee per round, a pretty remarkable number and the product of consistency across those 10 rounds. He loves how it sets up off the tee and even last year, when missing the cut during a generally quiet return to action, he was among the top five drivers over the first 36 holes.

More of the same and it'll come down to his putting, which looked good last week. It was mentioned in Sky Sports commentary that he's working with David Howell, one of the best putters of his generation and a fellow Foxhills member, and while I haven't been able to establish when that began, I'd be hopeful Canter reaps the rewards.

LIV and let fly

Niklas Moller played here on an invite five years ago and having progressed throughout 2024, he was also on the radar. Clearly, he's one of the very few who can compete with McIlroy off the tee and having won at the Belfry, contended in Abu Dhabi and stood taller than some in the Team Cup, another step forward is possible despite one or two short-game issues. The putter is red-hot, though.

It's with some trepidation that I instead select TOM MCKIBBIN, who scored three points from four last week and lost his singles match only narrowly in the end.

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The trepidation stems from the fact that a week ago, on the eve of that event, it was reported that McKibbin is set to sign with LIV Golf and join the team which features Rahm and Hatton. He certainly didn't offer much in the way of a rebuttal and it seems that a deal is imminent.

It would be disingenuous to draw parallels with Meronk last year, runner-up before departing for LIV, as it seems Meronk's deal happened very quickly after Dubai. However, what seems clear is that McKibbin's performance wasn't affected last week and I'd note that he wasn't asked a single question about LIV Golf during his press conferences, no doubt a directive from the DP World Tour communications office.

Perhaps then we shouldn't dwell on that potential distraction and in that case, we've a sharp, in-form, potentially top-class player, one who ranked seventh in strokes-gained off-the-tee last season, and whose birdie finish to the DP World Tour Championship (11th) came on the back of 10th place over at Yas Links.

With a game so well suited to these modern, desert courses in the Middle East, where driver is so often key, it's no surprise McKibbin already has course form having been 14th last year despite a poor week on and around the greens. Third off the tee and inside the top-20 in strokes-gained approach, it was a high-class ball-striking display and more of the same is expected.

McKibbin's win came at Green Eagle and that course certainly asks plenty of tough questions off the tee. Perhaps that's why former one-two Casey and MacIntyre finished first and third here in 2021 and it's possibly not a coincidence that Canter, fourth in the same renewal, went on to win his first DP World Tour title at Green Eagle last summer.

Certainly I'd expect McKibbin to thrive on this type of golf course going forward and having done so in Abu Dhabi last week, maybe he can remind the PGA Tour what it'll be missing before he does sign on the dotted line with LIV Golf. Should he do so, Luke Donald may have another Ryder Cup conundrum to begin pondering.

Take Cantero along with Canter

Having stuck to a pretty rigid formula, a brief word on some of the first-time-out bunch who I considered. Adrian Meronk has two top-fours in three course starts and is based in the Middle East, so at almost four-times the price he was a year ago, clearly there was some temptation. But siding with him despite a coaching switch late last year didn't pay off and, despite this being an ideal course, he's been below his best.

Daniel Hillier has been playing well for a while, hits it beautifully and has form at Eichenried and the Belfry. Haotong Li and Hovland have won at the former venue as well as here while Richard Bland, runner-up to Hovland, won at the Belfry and went close in Germany. Hillier is a fine ball-striker and there were some indications towards the end of last year that we should expect him to progress in 2025, perhaps beginning here.

A case can be made for Li at huge odds, as it can in-form Andy Sullivan and course-horse Callum Shinkwin, but the one I can't escape is a real longshot in the shape of IVAN CANTERO.

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This 28-year-old hasn't quite lived up to his amateur pedigree yet but he was third in the world at one stage and given how he drives the ball, you can see how he won titles at home and abroad as a youngster.

Despite that prowess off the tee it was a tough rookie season on the DP World Tour, but thanks to a burst of form in the spring (contended at Green Eagle) and then a gutsy display in Korea (sixth) he kept his card narrowly, before going on to make three cuts out of three to begin the new season.

Clearly, he's going to need to take a big leap forward from mid-pack in Mauritius if he's to mix it with McIlroy in Dubai, but those courses towards the end of last year wouldn't suit him anything like this one could, given that he's one of the longest (10th) and best (15th) drivers on the circuit based on last year's evidence.

Second and fifth in two Challenge Tour starts in the UAE, contending both times, he ranked among the top five drivers on his sole Middle East start on the main tour last year, but missed the cut narrowly. These could be the optimal conditions for a raw, improving player, one whose best golf came when we last saw him, and who really could be among the best drivers in the field this week.

Here at the Emirates GC, that alone has to mark him down as an outsider who could massively outperform his odds so at 500s with eight places, I'd rather take a proper chance than accept a quarter of those odds for the first-round lead.

Posted at 1900 GMT on 13/01/25

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