Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Dubai Desert Classic preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Dubai Desert Classic

2pts e.w. Bernd Wiesberger at 33/1 (Sky Bet, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Dean Burmester at 50/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Laurie Canter at 66/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Nicolai Hojgaard at 66/1 (Sky Bet, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Thomas Detry at 80/1 (Sky Bet, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Romain Langasque at 125/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

With the Saudi International and its ha-ha quite modest field now on the Asian Tour, and the DP World Tour's Qatar Masters having been cancelled, the Dubai Desert Classic is all that's left in terms of early-year familiarity on everyone's favourite circuit. This has been a mainstay of the schedule for 33 years now, Dubai itself a sprouting backdrop to an Emirates Golf Club which has seen some of the sport's modern greats take away the trophy.

It is in fact a fantastically eclectic roll-of-honour, which features collar-popping Robert-Jan Derksen sandwiched between the major behemoths Ernie Els and Mark O'Meara, and a foursome of multiple winners started by Els and Tiger Woods, completed by Rory McIlroy and Stephen Gallacher. McIlroy was beaten by Hao-tong Li and in-between the fancied pair Bryson DeChambeau and Paul Casey came a dramatic breakthrough for Lucas Herbert.

Notwithstanding the changes to DeChambeau's body and game in the interim, good drivers have always thrived here. That comment covers Gallacher and Herbert just as it does Sergio Garcia and McIlroy and it makes sense, because this parkland-style course allows players to use that club often. It also offers them the opportunity to drive not one but two par-fours, the second and 17th holes, and tips the scales heavily in one direction, more so if you happen to favour a draw.

Indeed Laurie Canter, more on whom later, has been the best driver on the DP World Tour over the last two years, and there he is with one of his best performances. Robert MacIntyre is an awesome driver of the ball, as is Brandon Stone, and there they are tucked in behind Casey. Few Europeans come close to matching Garcia and McIlroy off the tee and both return to one of their favourite courses as strong candidates to win here again.

McIlroy was among those buffeted around by a strong desert breeze at Yas Links last Friday, and this will represent a stark and welcome contrast. There is some wind in the forecast but it's not nearly as threatening, and while all 18 greens are new following an expensive restoration project, there are fewer unknowns now that almost everyone in the field has had a run. The favourites looked vulnerable last week, but less so this.

Ultimately, Rolex Series events tend to go to someone towards the top of the market. Shubhankar Sharma threatened to cause an upset in Abu Dhabi, the like of which Stone once produced in Scotland, but wind or links golf or both will always offer that threat. It's no coincidence that the biggest recent Dubai Desert Classic surprise came courtesy of Herbert, who made the most of foul weather in 2020 and has since proven himself to boast a touch of class anyway.

With or against Rory McIlroy?

McIlroy, at 15/2 and with eight places on offer, is the first conundrum to address. He played some really nice stuff at Yas Links, a course which is the complete opposite of what he wants, which is something resembling the Majlis Course. It was here that he secured his first professional win, he bossed the field six years later, he ought to have won again in 2018, and he returns for the first time since as the right favourite.

McIlroy is extremely appealing, having won this at around the 3/1 mark in 2015, but there are a few likeable options at bigger prices and I'll take him on with a group of six. First and by far the strongest fancy I have is BERND WIESBERGER, who is a good putting week away from going very close.

• CLICK HERE to back Wiesberger with Sky Bet

Wiesberger was sixth last year despite a slow start, and that was his third top-10 finish at the Majlis Course. He led after round one before McIlroy took over in 2015, had stayed on for ninth a year earlier, and when he has missed the cut it's been exclusively by narrow margins.

He says himself that the course is a good fit, stating it 'probably suits my game the best' out of the three which previously made-up the Middle East swing, and I can't imagine Yas Links usurped it. Wiesberger is a decent seaside player who won the Scottish Open at The Renaissance and has twice coped with a decent breeze to win in Denmark, but his short-game means he's going to be best when a higher greens-in-regulation count is possible.

With the putting surfaces at the Majlis increased by an average of 33%, he should be able to hit more than the 55 he managed last week, when he was on course to bag a top-10 finish before three-putting the 17th hole. He followed that with another dropped shot at the last, his only mistakes of an otherwise excellent day, and it was a nice return to the fold having bowed out with a strange performance in the DP World Tour Championship two months ago.

There, over at Jumeirah Golf Estates, Wiesberger threw in a couple of shockers before a sensational 63 to close, having been runner-up thanks to a typically excellent ball-striking display a week earlier at the same complex. An excellent desert golfer with form across the region, it really is telling that despite performing well at every course he's played in the Middle East, the Majlis appears to be his favourite.

That again reminds us that quality driving is paramount, and he's become one of the most reliable on the circuit in that department. Indeed a tournament won by the likes of Garcia, Casey, McIlroy, Els and Henrik Stenson should match up nicely with the 2021 leader in strokes-gained tee-to-green, and the hope is he can putt as well here as he did a year ago. Wiesberger ranked 27th back then, and that would do just nicely.

Ranked 58th in the world he's a player who knows this tournament could shape his season, as he's decided not to go to Saudi Arabia and will play for fewer world ranking points in Jordan next week. With no PGA Tour card to his name, Wiesberger is not currently in the Masters or the US Open, nor the PLAYERS or the WGC Match Play, and a little extra incentive at a course he loves is a nice addition.

Last year, Wiesberger dropped out of the world's top 50 just before Augusta, then took a month off. When he returned, he won just three starts later to go 50th in the rankings but has since hovered just outside that magic number. Given how well suited to this challenge he is, and the class edge he'll boast next week, don't be at all surprised if he bags what would be an impressive ninth DP World Tour Championship win.

DEAN BURMESTER is another likeable sort with everything to play for, having also turned down the riches of Royal Greens and an Asian Tour appearance next week.

• CLICK HERE to back Burmester with Sky Bet

He's just below his career-high 66th in the world, a ranking he achieved when finishing fourth on his final start of a breakout 2021 season. It was the year this huge talent graduated to what I'd call a fully-fledged European Tour winner, his previous victory having come on familiar and comfortable territory back home in South Africa.

That win in Tenerife wasn't a surprise, because the course allowed him to boss matters off the tee and certainly compares in some way to golf in the Middle East. Indeed, Rafa Cabrera Bello won this title a decade ago and remarked that it reminded him of playing golf at home in Las Palmas. Just as he and several other Spaniards have thrived here, so have a number of South Africans.

Burmester himself has an excellent record at the course, averaging 70 in his 16 rounds so far having made the cut on all four visits. His best effort came when hanging around all week to finish third in a tough 2020 renewal, but providing he can produce what he's capable of I'm certain easier conditions will suit him better.

It's clear that he's at the top of his game right now, leading the field in driving last week just as he'd done at the DP World Tour Championship. On both occasions a cold putter kept him out of the limelight, but that's Burmester: since the start of 2020 he's been one of the best putters in the field eight times, and as recently as November ranked second in the Golf in Dubai Championship. He is very difficult to predict in that regard, a Morikawa-lite who is capable of world-class putting just as the American demonstrated when winning the US PGA.

One final point to consider is that Burmester has an emotional attachment to this event. Back in 2020, he was involved in a serious car accident the night before the tournament, along with his wife and four-year-old son. It was a lucky escape and it's not unreasonable to describe this once fiery character as a changed man since, his on-course demeanour massively improved, and his world ranking with it. He's not stopped climbing since that week.

Whether that sparks something who can say, but Burmester is coming to a course he adores and with conditions much more suitable than they were in Abu Dhabi. He wasn't at all on the radar for a windswept grind, but with lower scoring brought about by many more opportunities to attack, this is right up his street. At 50/1 he can underline just how far he's come in two years.

If I had to take another from the front end of the market it would possibly be Thomas Pieters, who has won two of his last three starts and looks every inch the player he should be. It's going to be fun seeing just how far the Belgian can go and 25/1 by no means overestimates this elite ball-striker, however it would be fair to say he's never quite got to grips with this place and his power fade off the tee might be part of the reason for that.

Instead, I'll take the towering draw of LAURIE CANTER, whose career has taken off since the return of golf in the summer of 2020. Since then, the Bath man has established himself as the leading driver on the DP World Tour, and one of its best ball-strikers, and he's got everything bar a win to show for it.

• CLICK HERE to back Canter with Sky Bet

That last part is the obvious concern because it would be atypical for a maiden to win an event like this. However, Canter had every chance to do just that at the BMW PGA Championship with two holes to play and the same goes for the DP World Tour Championship in 2020. These are the biggest two events on the schedule, so a Dubai Desert Classic, in which he was fourth last year, is no barrier to playing well at the very least.

Last year's tie for fourth also leads to one of the best things about Canter from a punting perspective: his ability to brush off a missed cut. He'd departed early in Abu Dhabi last January, his first start in six weeks, but put that behind him at an ideal course. His runner-up finish at Wentworth came after three missed cuts in a row, and his closest call yet, when second to Ross McGowan in the Italian Open the previous October, followed a weekend off.

With fifth place at Celtic Manor also following a missed cut at the very same course, he's been one to forgive very quickly, and for all he's yet to reward backers in the best way possible, he's been profitable to follow. Canter has eight top-five finishes in 35 starts at this level since the Covid-19 pandemic began, and though we can never be sure, a continuation of his world-class ball-striking numbers should take care of business at some stage.

It doesn't hurt that he's friends with Pieters, but above all else I like the fact he missed the cut under totally the wrong conditions last week. Gallacher, Li and Miguel Angel Jimenez all won this after flattering to deceive in Abu Dhabi, Herbert had been 67th, Danny Willett had been 54th, and a sudden turnaround is even more likely now conditions are so contrasting.

The fact Canter putted well is somewhat encouraging and he's well worth backing to confirm a liking for this far more suitable course.

Twins both tempting

One of the few things the Hojgaard twins are yet to do is play well at the same time, but that could change here given that Rasmus was ninth last year. However, it's NICOLAI HOJGAARD who particularly interests me and he is another fancied to respond well to a missed cut at Yas Links.

• CLICK HERE to back Nicolai Hojgaard with Sky Bet

Nicolai shot 69-79 last week, like so many caught out by Friday's brutal conditions. He actually fared well for a long time but came home in 43 to miss the cut by a shot, a frustrating way to exit given that conditions allowed some of those who did scrape through to make big moves up the leaderboard.

Nevertheless, his numbers remained strong, driving it as well as he had when fourth in the DP World Tour Championship and hitting his irons if anything a little better. That's a really positive sign that he's ready to kick on again after stepping out of his brother's shadow late last year, and parallels between this place and the Earth Course at Jumeirah are particularly strong.

Hojgaard could eat alive the scoring holes and at 66/1 is preferred to Sam Horsfield, who was right at the top of my shortlist on the assumption the market would overvalue a string of missed cuts here. Unfortunately I don't think it has, so it's the Danish youngster who gets the vote.

Robert MacIntyre showed good signs early on at Yas Links and loves this course, while Adri Arnaus finished with a wet sail and is equally fond of it. Both have to be respected, the latter having produced a more balanced display which relied less on his newly-prolific putter, and Bob sure to go close under similar conditions to these in the future. Arnaus, a Dubai resident, would shade it at the odds, but ultimately neither is selected.

Back-to-back Belgian winners?

Instead, I'll add THOMAS DETRY to the staking plan in the hope he can make Pieters' wish come true, the latter having said he hoped to inspire people in Belgium when victorious on Sunday.

• CLICK HERE to back Detry with Sky Bet

Detry won the World Cup with Pieters back in 2018 but what I really want to focus on here is how well he's driving the ball and how good a platform that provides at the Majlis, where he was the halfway leader a year ago.

Since then, Detry has gone close in a Rolex Series event only to run into Min Woo Lee at the Scottish Open, where he was really unfortunate. Standing over a short par putt when in the lead late into Sunday, Detry pulled the trigger just as the horn blew to suspend play, and duly missed.

He did really well to come back and get himself into a play-off and that'll stand him in good stead if he can emulate last year's effort, which saw him do everything well. He's driving the ball better now and if he can reproduce his approach play stats of the 2020 edition, when fifth in the field, then a big performance is on the cards.

Detry is another whose schedule beyond this week is a little up in the air, likely as things stand to involve trips to some low-key PGA Tour events, so he's been focused on this fortnight. That meant spending a couple of months in Dubai prior to the resumption, and hopefully he can reap the benefits this weekend.

Which outsiders made the shortlist?

This probably isn't an event for throwing darts at massive odds, though Daniel Gavins is very tempting at 250/1. He's spent a lot of time practising in Dubai over the years, including at the Majlis Course, and is sponsored by a hotel in this part of the world. He made a nice start to the season in Abu Dhabi and it's not difficult to be taken with some of the ball-striking stats he's produced since winning in Northern Ireland.

At similar odds, the name Daniel van Tonder also stands out. He did us two favours last year, both in Africa, but bagged a top-20 finish in Dubai in November and his long draw off the tee is likely to see him take to this challenge. It's a big ask, but he is capable of following Burmester's lead and establishing himself outside of his homeland.

But for all that both do make some appeal, there's only really one at three-figure prices I like and that's ROMAIN LANGASQUE.

• CLICK HERE to back Langasque with Sky Bet

The Frenchman is plainly on a path towards the top end of the DP World Tour and has been for some months now. First, he got his driver dialled in, producing some of the best displays around. Now, at last, the iron play seems to be falling into place too, culminating in a field-leading performance in Abu Dhabi last week.

Typical of this sport, his driver actually held him back but that's easy to forgive when the wind is howling off the sea, and he's going to be far more comfortable here. Langasque has course form figures of 20-27-MC, and even in failing to make the weekend last year had started with an eye-catching round of 69 to enhance an already strong record.

Subsequent events confirmed that his game just wasn't where he needed it to be but now there's real substance to his form once more, the putter is showing signs of warming up too, and his trademark ball-striking powered those two good efforts here previously.

He'll need to step up but his win at Celtic Manor is a good guide, that course being driver-heavy just like this one, and his abundant potential remains. It was his mentor Victor Dubuisson who caught the eye on the face of it last week, but Langasque's tie for 12th was an ideal way to begin what I'm near certain will be a big season for him.

Posted at 1710 GMT on 24/01/22

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