Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Danish Golf Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Danish Golf Championship

3pts e.w. Thorbjorn Olesen at 18/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Jorge Campillo at 35/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Andy Sullivan at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Joe Dean at 50/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Adrien Saddier at 66/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

For the second week in succession, the DP World Tour visits a new resort course which almost nobody in the field has played before. Thankfully, this is the final switch-up of the season, every venue hereafter well known. Of those we have already left or are set to leave – Steyn City, Marco Simone and Albatross among them – surely none will be missed more than HimmerLand, which had staged the Made in Denmark on eight occasions since 2014 and helped it develop an identity many tournaments would envy.

Still, Lübker Golf Resort has definite benefits given its proximity to Aarhus, the second-biggest city in Denmark, and has in the past been labelled the country's best course by Thomas Bjorn. Whisper it, but this could be an upgrade: it is certainly nice to look at and providing fans support it in the same way they did the previous venue, we'll be in for a cracker.

At 7,026 yards, Lübker's Sky and Sand nines combine for something not much longer than HimmerLand, which was one of the most suitable courses on the circuit for shorter hitters. One difference here is that there are four par-fives, rather than two, and five par-threes, meaning just nine par-fours and a rare configuration. The mix of yardages is also extreme: one par-three is 243 yards; one par-four is 313; there are two par-fives of more than 630 yards, and the closing stretch features three long and difficult par-fours in succession.

Expect scores to be built from the first tee to the 12th green, something perhaps to bear in mind on Sunday or if betting in-play during the early stages of the event. This first two-thirds of the course features three par-fives, three very short par-threes, the driveable par-four, and five more holes which won't require much more than a wedge for the approach shot. After this, from the 13th to the clubhouse, scoring opportunities may be hard to find.

Rasmus Hojgaard is the defending champion after his smash-and-grab last July, which at the time relaunched his Ryder Cup bid only for his brother, Nicolai, to wind up on Luke Donald's team. Nicolai is here, too, and these identical twins are identical prices. I don't know as that's necessarily merited, but now that Rasmus is catching up with Nicolai off the tee, the future, both short- and long-term, is bright.

Before I get to something substantive, another fun note: it was Nacho Elvira who ought to have won this title in 2023. Guess which player occupies the 10th and final spot in the battle to earn PGA Tour membership for 2025, one place ahead of Rasmus? Why, it's Nacho Elvira. I can't remember why I thought that was fun, never mind pertinent. Maybe it will be in a few months.

I found the front five quite hard to separate and with money having come for in-form hater of holing putts, Bernd Wiesberger, was at first inclined to give Tom McKibbin another chance along with THORBJORN OLESEN, who has been close to putting four rounds together for a few months now.

• CLICK HERE to back Olesen with Sky Bet

The obvious issue with McKibbin is that he was beaten before he'd played a dozen holes last week, but it's no exaggeration to say that he missed good birdie chances at seven of the first nine. He didn't hit a bad shot until the 10th, ran up a double-bogey there after another missed putt and ranked dead last in putting come the end of a round which he'll hopefully have been able to laugh off.

Friday's 68, despite more missed opportunities, was more like it and his performance reminded me of Justin Thomas in the Travelers during that strange summer of 2020, when by the end of his doomed 36 holes, he was cackling at the absurdity of the sport. The following week, selected again on these pages, he went 1/25 in-play but lost a play-off at Muirfield Village. No cackling allowed.

The reason for not siding with McKibbin is the course. I won't have been the only one to take note of Oliver Wilson telling Richie Ramsay this place is 'right up your street' and have subsequently had it confirmed as being short, tight, with thick rough and small, sloping greens. One caddie told me it was 'the opposite of last week', which I will admit hadn't been my first impression. Plans have had to change.

Olesen though stays in the staking plan, because he's been hinting at something big for a few months now, ever since the Masters in fact. Now, back on home soil and playing a weak DP World Tour event for the first time since winning the Ras al Khaimah Championship, he can show that his game really is in good enough shape.

Lately, he's played well except for two rounds of golf, the first in Detroit and the second at the Wyndham. These though were two rare off-days for Olesen's putter, typically a strength, and when it's fired he's been competitive in far better fields than this. His iron play, which could be decisive here, looks as good as ever and the putter won't take long to come back around.

The worry might be that this place is tight but that should mean clubbing down plenty and Olesen has won at places like Gardagolf and The Belfry, which demand a level of accuracy. The same is somewhat true of the course he won at in Turkey and with an Open top-10 plus a win in the Dunhill Links confirming his ability to cope with the forecast wind, he's arguably the man to beat.

Certainly, as a drifting 20/1 shot, or 18/1 generally with more places, he rates value having won three times on the DP World Tour since his return to it. Olesen has class, winning form in abundance, and perhaps now the chance to emulate Rasmus Hojgaard and keep the trophy on home soil (OK, he lives in England so this is a bit of a stretch).

Earlier this year I'd been very keen to put up JORGE CAMPILLO for the Soudal Open, only for the Spaniard to withdraw to focus on his rookie PGA Tour campaign and leave the way clear for his compatriot Elvira to win that event in Belgium.

• CLICK HERE to back Campillo with Sky Bet

Campillo finished the regular season ranked 134th in FedEx Cup points and therefore facing a bit of a battle to earn another crack should he attempt to during the FedEx Fall or whatever they call it, but to do so securely he'll need to bag one more big cheque in Europe while he waits for all that to begin.

Skipping the Czech Masters made sense and he should love this course if it does play as anticipated and reward straighter drivers. That's something we don't often see but Campillo has become quite good at taking such opportunities late in his career, winning in Kenya last spring, and in Morocco and Qatar during the respective 2019 and 2020 seasons.

Fifth back in Qatar earlier this year allowed him to head to the US with money in the bank and his only subsequent start in comparable company was in Sweden, when 12th. He was then 26th in a Scottish Open which featured several world-class players and didn't even need to putt well to make the cut in the Open, which was above expectations based on his previous major exploits.

Only seen since in the Wyndham Championship, where three solid rounds were undermined by one poor one, Campillo is back in the right sort of grade here and really ought to be dangerous providing we're right about the course. One way or another, I don't think he'll be significantly disadvantaged off the tee and that's the only weakness he has versus those above him in the betting, so he rates the value bet at 28/1 and bigger.

Yannik Paul made a nice mid-tournament move last week and should prefer this. He spurned a big chance on a tight course in Japan in the spring and has been close to the lead in two of his most recent three appearances, but as well as being a bit frustrating his approach play has been below its usual high standards. Without that fundamental aspect of his game, he is up against it.

ANDY SULLIVAN seems to be in better shape overall and is preferred after an eye-catching fortnight.

• CLICK HERE to back Sullivan with Sky Bet

Sullivan is winless in four years now but four top-fives so far in 2024 shows how close he's been at times, and the most recent of them came just two weeks ago in a strong Asian Tour event won by Peter Uihlein. Aesthetically, Foxhills wouldn't be a million miles from this, either.

Popular last week on the back of his performance there, the course in Prague was in the end against him yet despite that, Sullivan entered the final round three off the lead. Though never able to mount a challenge, he paid heavy price for one bad mistake with a short-iron, responded brilliantly with an eagle, and looks the type of player who will soon realise this course is much better for him.

If that does prove to be the case, Sullivan's accuracy off the tee and improved approach work leave us needing that putter of his to warm up. We don't have to go back far for evidence of what he can do in that department and his most recent top-five finish, in Sweden, could prove a particularly handy guide to this week's event.

Sullivan has a generally good record in Scandinavia without ever really thriving at HimmerLand. There's a chance he finds improvement for the move to Lübker, both in terms of his form in this event, and his form over the past few weeks. It's been a while since we were on the right side of him but this could be the week.

My fourth selection is JOE DEAN, whose form under comparable conditions makes him look an interesting candidate and value at 40/1-plus.

• CLICK HERE to back Dean with Sky Bet

Dean's ascent has been one of the stories of the season as three top-five finishes have helped secure full playing rights for 2025, having started the year with a lowly Q-School category after a strong finish in Spain last November secured one of the final few cards on offer.

His circuitous route to this level makes him easy to underestimate but this former winner of the English Amateur is clearly good enough to go on and win, which he came so close to doing when second in Kenya, fifth in Belgium, and then losing out in a play-off in the Netherlands.

The latter is encouraging as far as handling a breeze goes and so is his display in the Open, where he was fourth after round one, struggled on Friday, but rebounded with a solid weekend to finish 25th. It was the second time in as many appearances that he'd made the weekend in the event.

All of that leaves him 31st in the Race to Dubai so the PGA Tour is within reach if he can kick on, and I liked last week's return to action, where he was level-par in the early stages of round two but made the cut with a little to spare, and saved his best work until Sunday despite never putting as well as we know he can.

Those soft, low-scoring conditions won't have been absolutely ideal and while Dean hits the ball a long way, I'm drawn to the fact that he went close in both Kenya and Belgium in particular. They're two tight, tree-lined courses which could help unlock this event.

French double on the cards?

I did look at Matthew Southgate given the forecast and an excellent record in the event. That's tied to HimmerLand but he's one of a handful who have a few rounds at this course under their belts and were it not for the fact that his putting woes look deeper-rooted than McKibbin's, he might've been of some interest at three-figure prices.

Those seeking another shock winner should perhaps consider Masahiro Kawamura, who has form in Kenya, at Valderrama and at Crans, and whose poor year still features a couple of top-10s including on a tree-lined course in Japan. He was by far the most interesting outsider, although Ricardo Gouveia has shown a little more lately, as has Eddie Pepperell.

Finally, so weak is this event that we've a handful of realistic contenders from the Challenge Tour, including Danish trio Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, Hamish Brown and Lucas Bjerregaard. More interesting though is John Parry, like Bjerregaard a former winner of the Danish Amateur, runner-up in Denmark earlier this year, accurate off the tee, and playing some excellent golf.

David Ravetto has understandably lured some in given the level of dominance he showed in winning his second title of the year and I wondered at first whether he might be up to going again, but his compatriot ADRIEN SADDIER is preferred having been up against it off the tee in Prague yet still fought hard for third place.

• CLICK HERE to back Saddier with Sky Bet

I generally don't like to side with players who've shown their hand, not at what are now shorter odds, but having been slow to acknowledge some career-best ball-striking from a player who has always had talent, I don't want to make a second mistake and miss the boat.

Saddier has gained more than a stroke per round with his approaches in seven of his last nine events and close to that in another, two of these coming on the PGA Tour. It's no exaggeration to say this makes him just about the best iron player on the circuit at the moment, perhaps just behind Wiesberger.

Unlike Wiesberger he has started to putt better, hence making it count with some big cheques lately, and having secured his card for 2025 with third place on Sunday, where he played in the final group alongside his more powerful compatriot, he should be raring to go by the time he tees off for the first round at a likely much more suitable course.

Saddier has been runner-up in Denmark before and will be one of those glad to get away from HimmerLand, which he never quite figured out. He can play in the wind and having got married just a few weeks ago, life is good, so perhaps he can prove an obvious winner at 50/1 or so (standout 66/1 with BoyleSports at the time of writing).

There's a sentence you can only really use in this maddeningly wonderful sport.

Posted at 0900 BST on 20/08/24

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