Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Cognizant Classic

1.5pts e.w. Billy Horschel at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Lee Hodges at 66/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Bud Cauley at 66/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Ryan Gerard at 80/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Kevin Roy at 100/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Matteo Manassero at 200/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Additional win selection published here on Wednesday

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

After Sunday's remarkable finish to the Mexico Open, the biggest shock of the 2025 PGA Tour season is probably now in the bag. By rights, the longest driver on the circuit should've landed a bit of a gamble at one of its widest golf courses but instead the shortest somehow did, and Brian Campbell has the luckiest bounce of his career to thank.

Had that event gone more to the form book then the Cognizant Classic, formerly known as the Honda, might have looked like a prime candidate for that shock of the season award, one it landed it three years in a row via Michael Thompson, Russell Henley and Padraig Harrington. By comparison, some more recent champions appear eminently predictable, yet none of Keith Mitchell, Matt Jones, Sepp Straka or Austin Eckroat was shorter than 66/1.

Part of the reason for these results is the field, seldom strong in its heyday and undeniably getting weaker now that Bay Hill and Sawgrass are of ever more importance. Part of the reason is the golf course, the Jack Nicklaus-designed PGA National, which is dangerous and fickle, penalising some bad shots far more harshly than others. Its famed Bear Trap can ruin anyone's week and seldom has a winner here looked weighed in before reaching it.

Worryingly, winning scores over the last two years have been lower, 14-under and 17-under in fact the lowest two since the event moved here in 2007. Players have referenced the cutting back of the rough, removal of bunkers and softened greens, and those of us who relish the difficulty of PGA National will have to hope it's tougher this time despite some rain early in the week and a breezy but not severe wind forecast.

Whatever happens with the weather, there's little appeal in siding with any of the five course specialists who are battling for favouritism. Three of them might be labelled players who don't win as often as we might expect; the others less so, but Daniel Berger is right back up to the top of the market and Sepp Straka doesn't scream value at 22/1, not in a tournament like this.

The only one who made serious appeal was Min Woo Lee and the Aussie could be worth a win-only exchange play at 40-plus later this week, but I'll put forward BILLY HORSCHEL as the headline bet for now.

• CLICK HERE to back Horschel with Sky Bet

Born and raised in Florida, Horschel has been playing PGA National's Champion Course, as well as others on the property, since a very early age. This event has almost always been on his schedule, the exception when a new WGC was added in 2021, and after some initial struggles he's since been a regular contender.

Ninth last year, the first-round leader in 2023, narrowly beaten following a late charge in 2017 and eighth thanks to a strong weekend from the cut-line a year before that, Horschel has done everything but win and that's largely down to some excellent tee-to-green displays, ranking inside the top 10 in four of his last eight appearances.

"I make it a priority to make these Florida events a big deal," he said in 2024. "I haven't won one in my career. I haven't won in the state of Florida before. So that's one thing I want to check off before my time is done."

No doubt Horschel will keep trying and while arriving here on a pair of missed cuts might not look ideal, it really doesn't bother me in the slightest – especially when a couple of top-10s would've had him challenging for favouritism at half of the available 50/1.

Both these performances came in stronger fields, first at Scottsdale and then at Torrey Pines, where in recent years he's always struggled. Neither sets up well for him and yet in the latter, mixing it with the best in the world, his irons fired just as they have in every start this year to some degree, enough to rank 32nd in strokes-gained approach.

Before a quiet fortnight at two bigger courses he finished 21st in the AmEx then ninth at Pebble Beach and the latter in particular is really encouraging, as he'd played there seven times previously, missed four cuts, and managed nothing better than a lowly 28th way back in 2013.

Conditions on the west coast will never suit him as well as they do close to home so he looks a prime candidate to improve and perhaps add a second Nicklaus win to his collection, having bagged his seventh PGA Tour title at Muirfield Village two and a half years ago.

Horschel then made it eight last April and as recently as September picked up a second win on the DP World Tour, taking down Rory McIlroy at Wentworth, and for my money he's overpriced at 50s.

In this event more than just about any other, the move from one side of the US to the other offers scope for players like him to recapture their best and in Horschel's case, we saw something close to that just a couple of weeks ago.

Jhonattan Vegas and Brian Harman both made some appeal but not as much as LEE HODGES, one of the form players of the last few months.

• CLICK HERE to back Hodges with Sky Bet

Eighth in Utah, fifth in the RSM Classic, 10th in the Sony and ninth in the Farmers, a run of four top-10s in seven events, were his first such finishes since he won his maiden title in the summer of 2023, and it seems he's finally cracked some putting issues which had been holding him back.

As with Horschel, it's easy to conclude that Hodges has taken a step backwards since the most recent of them but 33rd at Pebble Beach was set to be a good 20 places better until he made a nine at the very last hole of the tournament, something he later said cost him sleep that night as well as plenty of dollars and FedEx Cup points.

Following that, Hodges finished 57th in Phoenix and while again this result might not look impressive on paper and indeed is humdrum whichever way you look at it, he'd previously missed the cut on both starts in a pressure-cooker event.

Speaking there after an opening 65, he said: "I feel like I've been playing as good a golf as anybody out here, and I think my golf would say that, as well. I've been very consistent this year with every part of the game."

Hodges also talked about the changes made to his putting routine which had helped solve that part of the puzzle and while he wasn't able to kick on, he should know that if he keeps doing what he's been doing, the Cognizant Classic is a definite chance to double his PGA Tour tally.

Out of form when missing the cut here last year (57-MC-MC-58-MC-24), he'd been 14th in 2023 and ninth in 2022, gaining strokes in all key statistical departments on both occasions. He's also been 12th at Bay Hill, which is a bit longer than he'd like, contended at Muirfield Village, and won a 3M Open at a course with some aesthetic similarities.

Hodges is a quality iron player who is tidy off the tee and that's a great formula here, so at 50s and bigger he looks a strong candidate.

Gerard fancied to score

We've been on two play-off losers in this event, priced at 125/1 and 175/1, and the case for both revolved around some course experience you had to search to uncover. Last year that path led to Max Greyserman and Nico Echavarria at massive odds and while there's nobody I like at comparable prices, my favourite bet does have winning form here at PGA National.

The player in question is RYAN GERARD, who has made five cuts in five since earning his PGA Tour card, three of them top-20s in this sort of company.

• CLICK HERE to back Gerard with Sky Bet

Last week's 17th came at a long, wide course, as did 14th before Christmas, while he was 15th at Torrey Pines too where his ball-striking stats were solid.

Gerard though should relish the move to Florida, where he's been based for a long time. He's from North Carolina, won his Korn Ferry Tour title in South Carolina and went close in Tennessee, and everything about his profile suggests he could take another big step forward now on the east coast.

Here at PGA National, he not only won the Polo Junior Classic back in 2015 but made his PGA Tour debut in this event two years ago, finishing fourth thanks to some quality iron play, an aspect of his game which appears to be a real strength along with solid driving and good putting.

At 16th in total driving he's neither short nor wild, similar to Hodges in fact, and from there his game can be deadly. He's played a bit too well in Mexico and California to have snuck in hear below the radar, but at upwards of 50/1 rates my favourite bet of the week.

Success for Roy?

While Greyserman (40/1 from 400s) and Echavarria (80/1 from 350s) return to a course they both know very well with their credentials far more obvious and prices to match, Ben Silverman is about the same price as he was last year and therefore made some appeal.

The Canadian finished a good 16th and it was a bit of an opportunity missed in the end, as he ranked fifth in the tee-to-green stats but 58th in putting, a week after he'd led the field in that category when finishing 13th in Mexico. My worry ahead of his return is that his approach play is seldom impressive and without it, winning this is extremely difficult.

Instead, I'll give the vote to KEVIN ROY, a rock-solid ball-striker who ranked eighth off-the-tee and 11th in strokes-gained approach when 29th here a couple of years ago.

• CLICK HERE to back Roy with Sky Bet

Roy had started that season MC-MC-MC-MC yet found an immediate upturn in Florida, where he has lived for many years. This time, he arrives on the back of two top-20s and a withdrawal in his last three starts, last week's 17th in Mexico particularly encouraging.

Roy has played the same courses well several times in the past, including in Wichita and the Bahamas on the Korn Ferry Tour and Vidanta Vallarta on the PGA Tour, so that opening top-30 around PGA National is a potentially big clue that he can be a factor back close to home.

I like the fact that he's number one in total driving but it's his longer-term approach play stats which offer the most encouragement as he ranked as high as 13th in his sole previous PGA Tour season, all that good work so often undone by the putter.

Having dropped back down to the Korn Ferry Tour and then regained status for 2025, the early signs are that he's putting better now and form such as eighth in Bermuda and 12th at the Valspar offers further encouragement. He can go really well.

Cole is the one player I've spent most time weighing up as while his form is poor, two of his last four starts came at Torrey Pines, which really doesn't suit. He was a decent 22nd at Pebble Beach which is far more his cup of tea and if a return to bermuda greens helps with the putter, he could make Sky Bet's 80/1 look very generous.

Preference though is for BUD CAULEY.

• CLICK HERE to back Cauley with Sky Bet

To my eye this one-time potential superstar looks to be just about ready to win his first PGA Tour title, little more than a year after he returned from three and a half years away from the game.

His comeback first showed signs of promise when 21st in this very event despite his ball-striking not being as good as we've come to expect, but that's now looking reliable again and has done since he was fifth down in Mississippi during the FedExFall part of last season.

Poor putting saw him miss the cut a week later but his four starts since have returned finishes of 34-25-30-21, the latter two his only appearances so far in 2025. It was especially pleasing to see his putter fire over the final 54 holes in Phoenix three weeks ago and that leaves him primed for a return to the east coast.

Cauley has only ever struggled in this event because of the putter and when it's behaved, he's been some kind of factor, finishing 27th, 12th, 42nd and 21st in those four appearances. With 14 of the 18 winners at PGA National having ranked first or second in the tee-to-green stats, this feels like the sort of event he really can win.

That statistic plus two Nicklaus wins and a strong record here is what put Vegas on the radar and there's a case too for Adam Svensson, a winner here in college and again at Qualifying School, while former Ryder Cup players Francesco Molinari and Danny Willett are two of the more interesting ones at massive odds.

Another Euro star set to shine

Willett snuck into the top 10 at Torrey Pines and that's two solid efforts in his last three, while Molinari's irons look in good shape and this is an event which has often been fought out between players with good Open Championship records. Last year's missed cut says he's up against it, but over two rounds he gained almost four strokes with his ball-striking and he's putting a bit better now.

Ultimately though I've opted for his compatriot MATTEO MANASSERO, for whom this is one of the more suitable opportunities.

• CLICK HERE to back Manassero with Sky Bet

He's played PGA National twice before, finishing 29th and 12th, and also has form at the Valspar courtesy of two top-20s, and 23rd here in Florida at Doral.

Two starts ago he was 25th at Torrey Pines, which I'd put right at the top of expectations given that his weakness remains the driver, and I can excuse last week's lowly finish at a wide-open, big-hitters' course in Mexico.

This is a far better fit for Manassero, who has made a solid start to the year with three cuts made in three. Don't be surprised if he becomes the latest European contender and maybe, just maybe, completes one of the most remarkable stories of the last decade in golf by coming back from the abyss to win on the PGA Tour.

His quality approach play (sixth on the DP World Tour last season) married with the good putting he's shown lately make for a fascinating combination and while he isn't an Open champion, his career did begin in earnest with 13th as an amateur at Turnberry.

Close to winning the Irish Open last year, he'll relish this battle if the wind does get up and is underestimated at three-figure prices in an event where just about anything is possible.

Posted at 1730 GMT on 24/02/25

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