Golf expert Ben Coley is adding a win-only selection in the Cognizant Classic, where Min Woo Lee looks to have drifted to a generous price.
Golf betting tips: Cognizant Classic
2pts win Min Woo Lee at 40-42.0 (Betfair Exchange)
In Monday's outright preview ahead of the Cognizant Classic, I mentioned that MIN WOO LEE might be worth backing if drifting to upwards of 40.0 on the exchanges. That has now happened and I'm pretty keen to add him to a staking plan which left room for such a wager.
The Aussie mentioned last year that he felt comfortable at PGA National, which not everyone does. He'd been 26th on debut when making his first PGA Tour start of 2023, driving the ball really well, and went on to finish runner-up to Austin Eckroat despite not putting as we know he can.
Interestingly, his approach work has been good throughout both appearances, particularly last year when 1.5 strokes-gained per round was a career-best return, which it remains. Given that this is often his weakness it presents the fascinating prospect of him being more effective here than he is at most courses, perhaps because there are few wedges and plenty of seven and eight irons.
His record in Florida also includes sixth at Sawgrass where he showed he can handle these bermuda greens and while he took one backwards step in the Genesis Invitational last time, he's yet to show the same fondness for Torrey Pines as he has PGA National.
Lee almost won his first PGA Tour title last summer when runner-up in Detroit and then, partly due to a knee problem, went through a putting slump which came to an end as that injury healed. So far this year he's been good on the greens in three of his four starts and the pieces are falling into place for this enormous talent, every inch a major contender for the years ahead.
In a market headed by five course specialists, three of whom don't win often, he's been allowed to drift to a really nice price.
I'm just about mentally prepared for a back-to-form Daniel Berger winning this as favourite but the very last tournament these two played in together, just two weeks ago, saw Lee open at a considerably shorter price despite Berger boasting the better course form. The move to PGA National helps both and I can't understand Lee being 42.0 to Berger's 26.0 when their chance looks about equal.
There's a big five in the market but it should be a big six and, from a late tee-time (five of my six more speculative plays are out early), he's well worth supporting at 10-15 points bigger than when betting opened.
Jhonattan Vegas also merits consideration at around 100.0. The Venezuelan has made 10 cuts in 11 here with a best of fourth in 2017 and he's been inside the top 30 in four of his last five tournament starts. Over the course of his career he actually has positive putting numbers on these greens and if his short-game holds up he can go well having been fourth at The Sentry last month.
Vegas is one of several I had on my three-balls shortlist but all of them have one player in their group I'm not in a rush to take on. In his case that's former runner-up Mackenzie Hughes, for Adam Schenk it's Florida winner Taylor Moore, and these are by no means the only examples.
The only selection who came close to making the staking plan was Christiaan Bezuidenhout but I'm happy to let him go at just a shade of odds-against, knowing that nobody is immune to the perils of this course even under calm conditions. Hopefully they help Lee to go close to landing what seems an inevitable PGA Tour breakthrough.
Posted at 0800 GMT on 25/02/25
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