Ben Coley's golf betting tips: BMW PGA Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: BMW PGA Championship

4pts win Jon Rahm at 8/1 (General)

3pts e.w. Matt Fitzpatrick at 18/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Victor Perez at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Guido Migliozzi at 125/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Francesco Molinari at 175/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

All 12 members of Europe's Ryder Cup team are set to tee it up in the BMW PGA Championship, still the flagship event of the DP World Tour even if its financial home and its spiritual home are now separate places.

This is where the heart of the old circuit beats, where many members of this field dreamed of winning. Even Billy Horschel, champion in 2021, talked about watching golf at Wentworth on television before heading out to practise as a young boy in Florida. To the likes of Shane Lowry, Tyrrell Hatton and the other British and Irish winners, it was as much a part of their early love affair as any major championship.

Wentworth's West Course, or the Burma Road as it became known, seems to have settled into itself again after the decidedly unsettling redesign led by Ernie Els more than a decade ago.

It is back as a par 72 and not an especially long one, with all four par-fives representing eagle opportunities. None of the par-fours are daunting to look at on the scorecard, even if the likes of holes nine and 15 can ruin them regardless.

It is by no means fearsome, whether the tournament takes place in May or September, and while it's been a dry summer some sting will have been taken out of the turf of late. Just how low players can go remains to be seen, but Lowry's 17-under winning total came in a 54-hole edition and something lower still is possibly on the agenda with a largely good weather forecast and a field this strong.

The rise of Viktor Hovland is neatly demonstrated by his position alongside 2014 champion Rory McIlroy at the top of the betting, but while cases can be made for each of the big three, I don't see a more likely winner than JON RAHM and have to make him the headline bet.

• CLICK HERE to back Rahm with Sky Bet

Rahm has undeniably been hit-and-miss since capturing the Masters in April, unable to match the relentless consistency of his peers at the top of the world rankings nor collect the titles Hovland has, but as a consequence we're able to back him at 8/1. That's the sort of price he's gone off to win against the best in the world, rather than the best in Europe.

He is absolutely deadly when coming home. This will be Rahm's 23rd regulation DP World Tour start (that is to say ignoring the Open) and he's won eight times already. Yes, three of those came in largely weak fields on home soil in Spain, but the other five are made up of two high-class Irish Opens and a hat-trick in the season finale in Dubai, where he's won three times in four visits.

This is still a small sample but I won't be at all surprised if, come the end of his career, Rahm's one-in-three clip is sustained at this level. He strikes me as precisely the sort of character who revels in playing big fish in a smaller pond and if you needed reminding about the difference between the PGA Tour and this one, see victories for Ludvig Aberg and Vincent Norrman since an unfortunate near-miss for Matt Wallace.

Of course, Rahm has been behind Hovland over in the US lately and the Norwegian has won a couple of DP World Tour titles himself, but the Spaniard boasts a better Wentworth record and for my money remains just one level ahead for the time being. That record reads 2-2, his scoring average now 67.29 following a final-round 62 last year.

Who's to say what would've happened in a 72-hole renewal so I'll focus on the context of these runner-up finishes, which is that neither came when Rahm looked to be at his absolute best. In 2019 he'd driven it poorly to be 13th at East Lake; in 2022 he'd been fairly quiet since Mexico in the spring, had again struggled in the TOUR Championship, yet was beaten only by a brilliant Lowry.

There have to be some concerns about his driving numbers, but Wentworth is a course upon which Rahm won't use it that much anyway. Besides, it seems entirely plausible that, refreshed following a necessary break, he's able to rediscovered his off-the-tee brilliance very quickly.

Second in the Open last time he teed it up in Europe, my view is that he deserves the benefit of the doubt.

Fitz fancied to make amends

McIlroy relied on his putter at the K Club, where conditions ought to have been ideal, and who knows how Hovland will react to his FedEx Cup heroics. Most likely is that he has no adjustments to make – he was, after all, very wealthy already – but following his breakout summer with yet another title having been able to put the clubs away for a while is a big ask.

Dangers extend well beyond those two, including Lowry, Hatton and the awesome Aberg. Tom Kim should like it here, Min Woo Lee shot 62 in the second round last year yet might prefer a course where he can hit more drivers, while Horschel is the same odds as he was in Ireland and this is markedly better – McIlroy has doubled in price, remember, and he was the one who got closer to winning.

As such I agree with the market in making MATT FITZPATRICK and Tommy Fleetwood the biggest threats and it's the former who rates marginally better value at 16/1 generally and 18s in a place.

• CLICK HERE to back Fitzpatrick with Sky Bet

Fitzpatrick struggled in the wake of his Harbour Town victory in the spring, managing one top-10 in his next 10 starts, but over the course of his last three he's been right back to his best.

Finishing second to Hovland in the BMW Championship was a fine effort – he was unfortunate to bump into one of the best rounds in memory from his teammate – and third place in Switzerland looked like being a couple of places better until some late bumps in the road.

Those will have annoyed the hell out of Fitzpatrick, a serious competitor who expects to win when chances arrive, but we really are probably talking one bad chip shot between finishing first and third and he's had time to get over it, his mind no doubt elsewhere having got engaged last week.

The bottom line is that he's found the improvements he needed off the tee, getting better throughout each of his last five starts, and the rest of his game looks in good enough shape to challenge for a title that means that bit more to the English players you suspect, the best of whom have all had a look at winning it down the years.

Fitzpatrick hasn't managed that just yet but his breakthrough came at the similar Woburn and here at Wentworth, he's made all seven cuts, twice finished inside the top 10, and was the halfway leader in 2020. It's a solid course record and, vitaly, his form coming in is better than it had been prior to any one of those previous appearances.

Justin Rose caught the eye in the Playoffs while Adam Scott simply had a poor week with the putter in Ireland so both have to be respected in a really competitive event, where that strength at the top means some of the regular European contenders are on offer at inflated odds.

Alex Bjork is one such example, the Swede having been runner-up at 25/1 or so in Switzerland two weeks ago, while Robert MacIntyre is the biggest price among the Ryder Cup team members. His record at Crans is poor so I was inclined to chance him here, but so far the evidence is that Wentworth also has him somewhat foxed.

VICTOR PEREZ is another for whom Crans has been a problem and you only have to excuse his third missed cut in four starts there to be interested in the Frenchman at 80/1.

• CLICK HERE to back Perez with Sky Bet

Prior to that he'd been 11th in Prague, making very few putts, but his putter was good in Switzerland and I don't think he's all that far away from the form that saw him win the Rolex Series event in Abu Dhabi to begin the year.

That was his third DP World Tour title and while Perez does swing from excellence to mediocrity very quickly, a bit like MacIntyre, he has plenty of upside given the quality of opponent he's seen off for those three wins in four years.

We've seen glimpses of it since Abu Dhabi, with 12th in the PGA Championship placing him back on the Ryder Cup radar, and there wasn't much wrong with mid-pack finishes in the Scottish Open and the Open following a narrow missed cut in the British Masters.

Perez will be seriously frustrated at having missed out on the Ryder Cup for a second time and there's no doubt he's been unlucky, including recently having been forced to withdraw from the ISPS Handa World Invitational due to Covid-19 when preparing for a final push.

Back on track a week later in the Czech Masters, similar ball-striking would make him a live one having been runner-up to Hatton here in 2020, at a time when his form wasn't especially encouraging. That's kind of the deal with Perez, who is hard to pin down, but at these prices I'm very happy trying.

Molinari to roll back the years?

Rasmus Hojgaard, Yannik Paul and Wallace are other Ryder Cup nearly-men at similar odds but it's two Italians, GUIDO MIGLIOZZI and FRANCESCO MOLINARI, who are the final additions to the staking plan.

• CLICK HERE to back Migliozzi with Sky Bet

Migliozzi is another whose good is very good, as we saw when he hit the shot of the year to capture the Open de France last October. That demanding test isn't the worst guide despite a very different aesthetic, while he's won on tree-lined courses in Kenya and Belgium, the latter very similar to Wentworth.

Although he wasn't able to use Paris as a springboard towards Rome, Migliozzi has been catching the eye for a while now. He was the 54-hole leader at the Belfry following 10th place in Germany, sat 11th at halfway in the Open, shot rounds of 61 and 63 in Crans, then opened 69-66 to lie sixth at halfway last week in Ireland.

All of this suggests he's very close and the same had been true last year, when he'd made five cuts prior to the Open de France and stormed home there. And while his Kenya Open win had been out of the blue, he'd made cut after cut and kept hinting at something big between that success and a later one at Rinkven in 2019.

His form at Wentworth doesn't leap off the page (MC-MC-MC-13), but again there looks to be a little more beneath the surface. On debut he gained 5.4 strokes tee-to-green in just two rounds and his ball-striking wasn't far off that level next time, either. He really should've sailed through to the weekend on each occasion, but putted poorly.

Having improved with every visit in that department, Migliozzi was able to finish 13th in last year's three-round renewal and that was a performance he bettered only twice all year, whether you measure bare results (1st France, 10th Netherlands), or pound-for-pound (1st France, 14th US Open).

Returning now with a sustained run of good play behind him, the Italian can demonstrate his versatility and class by putting four rounds together – and I wonder if MOLINARI might do the same.

• CLICK HERE to back Molinari with Sky Bet

Granted, the 40-year-old has had to settle for vice-captaincy in Rome but don't forget he began the year as a key part of the winning Hero Cup side, before contending immediately afterwards in Abu Dhabi when we were on at around 50/1.

Although largely quiet since, Molinari found a bit of form in the Czech Masters with back-to-back rounds of 67 to lie 14th with a round to go, and I like the fact he produced his best strokes-gained approach figures since this event last year. He'd already been driving the ball well, but his irons needed to improve and very much did.

The same goes for his short-game and Molinari ultimately suffered for a bad putting week, of which he's had plenty this year. Still, he's spiked on a handful of occasions and so comfortable is he at this course that he could finish ninth last year, on his first start in two months, despite holing very little then, either.

As well as his 2018 win he's managed six other top-10s in his last 10 tournament starts, plus 14th as defending champion in 2019, and there is no place in the world where he's more likely to contend again, even allowing for the field strength.

Molinari went off the same price as Hatton for last September's Italian Open on the back of a return to form at Wentworth. I'm not for a second arguing that was appropriate (it wasn't) nor that he should be one of the market leaders here (he shouldn't), but I am pleasantly surprised to be able to take three-figure prices.

Chances are we'll get a high-class champion here yet again but Wentworth has thrown up some surprises, even if it's 13 years since Simon Khan's shock win. Jamie Donaldson and Laurie Canter threatened in 2021, when Kiradech Aphibarnrat arguably should've closed it out, and Soren Kjeldsen led through 54 holes last year.

I had no end of names on my list, including Belfry and K Club contender Julien Brun whose game is a little bit Luke Donald, albeit at a lower level. Two top-10s in three for Shubhankar Sharma are enough to earn him respect at a course he likes and Ewen Ferguson could leave behind his debut missed cut, while Johannes Veerman doesn't look far away from doing something good.

However, that Ryder Cup 12 looks so strong, and is so strongly supported, that there may not be many places to play for in a tournament which always holds its own regardless of the calendar. Expect to be crowning a world-class winner on Sunday night and if it is Rahm, then Europe's best will be set up perfectly for Rome.

Posted at 2000 BST on 11/09/23

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