Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Betfred British Masters preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Betfred British Masters

3pts e.w. Matt Wallace at 22/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)

2pts e.w. Thriston Lawrence at 30/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Alex Fitzpatrick at 50/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Joost Luiten at 66/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Richie Ramsay at 80/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Back in the summer of 2022, 'independent contractor' was the buzz phrase in certain golfing circles, made up largely of those hoping to board the Saudi gravy train at some stage henceforth. The concept behind it was that, hey, these players are being exploited by the PGA Tour! They should be free to go and join the absolutely not exploitative LIV Golf! And then come and play whichever PGA Tour events they so choose with zero repercussions!

Two years on and it's bizarre, don't you think, that Tyrrell Hatton's bid to acquire the necessary Ryder Cup points to make Luke Donald's 2025 team is set to begin in the British Masters, also take in the Dunhill Links and the Open de Espana, but will not include the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth. As it turns out this independent contractor independently signed a contract and, erm, isn't available that week. Busy. Soz.

Hatton of course was Jon Rahm's first signing as manager of Legion XIII, named – without hint of self-deprecation or awareness – after a unit in the Imperial Roman army. Hard to say why exactly, but Rahm tried to explain part of the logic with one punchy sentence: "The term loyalty is very important for me." (Editor's note: "This is my official, my one and only time I'll talk about this, where I am officially declaring my fealty to the PGA Tour" J Rahm, 2022) (Editor's note II: Julius Caesar valued loyalty as well, you know)

As for why Hatton, he later added: "As we were developing the team’s brand it became clear that I wanted to fight alongside a group of guys who aligned perfectly with what the team stands for." Doesn't sport's ability to write these stories amaze you? Isn't it lucky that one of the three players who came through LIV's version of Q School also fit the bill along with a young college graduate Rahm didn't know personally.

It's all b*******, my friends, but we are where we are and in Hatton's case, that means the outskirts of Birmingham for the Betfred British Masters, where he is priced at around the 15/2 mark. Instinctively, that feels on the generous side of fair: this is a world-class golfer whose best three LIV Golf results have come within his last four starts, including a win. He has a heck of a lot in his favour.

Still, he did flop in the Open, his sole subsequent LIV start was mediocre, and while there's been plenty said about his top-10 finish at Augusta, where he'd previously struggled, he hasn't been a factor in three subsequent majors. Having found winning difficult before LIV Golf Nashville – his first in more than three years – and now tasked with fronting up back on the DP World Tour, there are enough unknowns, together with one or two concerns, to let him go unbacked at a dangerous course he hasn't played in professional competition.

As for that course, it's hopefully established by now that being a Ryder Cup venue doesn't necessarily signify much at all except for being accessible and having a hotel on-site (RIP subterranean nightclub), and the Brabazon is good but unspectacular bar one or two holes. It's not easy and won't be a pushover despite ideal weather; hopefully, a generally warm and dry summer has made up for a miserable spring and produces the kind of firmness which, along with some in-your-face hazards, will ensure this is a decent test.

Overpowering the Brabazon isn't really possible and even the driveable 10th doesn't necessarily play to the strengths of the longer hitters, who might have to take something off driver or keep it in the bag altogether. This isn't to say that hitting fairways is paramount and some wild ones have won here lately, but you do need to miss in the right places. Above all else, quality iron play and a sharp short-game stand out as the requirements around a mid-length par 72 which is built for late drama.

Last year's renewal actually fizzled out a tad because of early drama in the final round, as Guido Migliozzi went out in seven-over, Max Kieffer two worse than that. Niklas Norgaard Moller was on the winning score after seven holes but finished seventh, Joost Luiten had to wait until the 16th for his first final-round birdie, and in the end it was Daniel Hillier who stole it from off the pace. This sort of chaos is not uncommon at the Belfry, nor is it uncommon on the DP World Tour. Expect more of the same.

Tying together winners here isn't easy but for the most part their form had been very good, which is often the case when you come to a course where there are obvious no-go areas. Hillier had gone 5-MC-3, Olesen had also played well in his previous three starts, nine of Richard Bland's last 10 rounds had been in the 60s, and Rasmus Hojgaard was the hottest player on the circuit. Still, behind Hatton this has a wide-open feel.

Stand by Wallace

Top of my list is MATT WALLACE, who continues to appear underrated back in Europe.

• CLICK HERE to back Wallace with Sky Bet

Wallace is ranked by DataGolf as the second-best player in this field and while there are one or two others I could include in that conversation, none are as well-suited to the Belfry as he ought to be on paper except perhaps for Hojgaard.

Things didn't work out for us when he was 15th in the KLM Open but anyone who was paying close attention to that event will know how close he was to having a chance to win it, and after a couple of subsequent missed cuts hurt his FedEx Cup Playoff prospects, he signed off the season with back-to-back top-30s following 41st in the Open.

Having bemoaned a lack of putting confidence when last playing on the DP World Tour it was encouraging to see him produce his best performance since January in that department at the Wyndham last time, but it's his driving which is the real positive. Not always Wallace's strength, he's gained strokes in eight of his last 10 starts worldwide.

When he finished 19th here in 2020 it was off the tee that he struggled so improvements in that department could be the missing piece of the puzzle. Truth be told though he'd gone off the boil at the time, with his last three starts reading 59-77-MC, and he's also become a PGA Tour winner in the intervening years. He's a better golfer now.

Wallace was a Belfry ambassador at the time and knows the Brabazon well, so returning with stronger recent form in the bank he ought to give a really good account of himself. While it's Hatton who comes here to begin his bid to make the Ryder Cup team, Wallace will hope to follow a similar path knowing that he was third at Bethpage in the US PGA five years ago, and a statement victory like this could go a long way.

It's admittedly been a while since he won a DP World Tour event but that's partly because he's been a PGA Tour member since 2020. Over the past 12 months he has six top-15s in 10 starts back over here, including a luckless second in Prague, and he'd also been unfortunate not to win in Switzerland a year prior to that. More chances seem sure to arrive.

All around the world? No problem for Lawrence...

The man who beat him there was THRISTON LAWRENCE and he too looks to hold outstanding claims.

• CLICK HERE to back Lawrence with Sky Bet

I actually think he's a little flattered by being a four-time DP World Tour winner as two have rather fallen in his lap, another was called off at halfway, and when he captured the SA Open he was fortunate that nobody could capitalise on his nervy back-nine.

Still, he has been as prolific as just about anyone at this level over the past three years and is surely still improving, having contended for the Open last month and stuck around impressively. Since then, a missed cut straight off the plane in the USA can be forgiven, and then last week he totally outclassed a good Sunshine Tour field.

Speaking after a five-shot win in that 54-hole event, he said: "It’s been a great week and to win just before I go back overseas is really nice for the confidence. No matter how much you lead by, it’s always a cool feeling on the 18th green because you don’t want to mess up.

"I’m proud of my patience because the greens were tricky. My game feels great and my body feels amazing.

"But it’s back to the drawing board on Monday. I still have a job to do on the DP World Tour, I’m trying to get one of the 10 cards for the PGA Tour."

Lawrence narrowly missed one of those cards last year so won't need reminding that every point counts, and having seen George Coetzee return to Europe and double up in the past, I reckon he might be capable of doing something similar.

As for his course suitability, two mid-pack finishes rather mask it somewhat as his ball-striking was very good on each occasion. He's putting better ahead of his third try and there can be no doubt whatsoever that tree-lined, parkland golf is ideal. This is the game the way Lawrence grew up playing it and it's where he'd been at his best until that Open performance.

His victory last year at Eichenried is especially encouraging as form correlations between the two are exceptionally strong. Hillier and Bland have both been third there while the likes of Connor Syme, Ryan Fox, Edoardo Molinari, Martin Kaymer and Calum Hill help draw together two courses which are similar enough to look at, for all that there are more birdie opportunities in Munich.

Lawrence does have the propensity to throw in a shocker from time to time and we have to be accepting of that, but with confidence sky-high and a PGA Tour card just one more big performance away, this seems the right time to back him.

Dutch dynamo won't fade away

Just as he denied Wallace in Switzerland, JOOST LUITEN was Lawrence's victim in Germany last year, although in truth Luiten had himself to blame after missing a short par putt at the 71st hole before losing by a single stroke.

• CLICK HERE to back Luiten with Sky Bet

Luiten is now more than six years removed from his sixth DP World Tour win and wouldn't be one for maximum faith in the mix, but he does look a rock-solid proposition around a suitable golf course after a nice return to action in Prague.

That course saw bombers David Ravetto and Jesper Svensson battle it out so the fact that Luiten would've been 10th but for bogeys at the final two holes shows how well he played on what was his first start since he was cruelly forced to sit and watch the Olympics from the sidelines.

Luiten had done enough to meet the IOC's requirements but his own Olympic federation determined that as he wasn't inside the world's top 100, he wasn't a realistic medal winner and thus wouldn't represent his country. No wonder Luiten and compatriot Darius van Driel were fuming as people with no understanding of the sport were able to deny them such a massive opportunity.

Luiten actually took the Dutch Olympic committee to court and won his appeal against their decision, only to then discover that the International Golf Federation had in effect given his spot to somebody else.

Whether or not he can use that to fuel a return to winning ways we'll find out, but the Belfry is a great fit. He's been 36th and eighth over the last two renewals and while fading from a share of the lead last year means it was a missed opportunity, that was somewhat excusable given that it came days after he'd blown it in at the aforementioned Eichenried.

With so much of his best form around parkland courses and all of his wins between 12- and 19-under, conditions look ideal, and we'll just have to hope that he can putt as well as he did last time out. On that, encouragement is drawn from the fact that when the putter sparked into life in the spring, he managed to run with it for a month or so.

They do get on with one another

The other course which really stands out from a correlating perspective is Galgorm Castle. Hillier was third there on his sole visit, last year's surprise second Oli Wilson has been second, course specialist Hill has won, as have Fox and Ewen Ferguson, while Dave Coupland has two top-10s and he was in the mix at huge odds here during the 2020 UK Championship.

Ferguson of course rates a danger having won both there and at Eichenried but the two who stand out when tugging at that thread are ALEX FITZPATRICK and Todd Clements, with the former preferred.

• CLICK HERE to back Fitzpatrick with Sky Bet

Fitzpatrick played the best golf in the field over the weekend of the Czech Masters, that's despite a bogey-bogey finish, and sixth place there should set him up nicely for the months ahead.

He'll doubtless be keen to emulate his brother and win in his first full season on the DP World Tour and if it's going to happen then why not in England, which is where his Challenge Tour breakthrough came at around this time last year, and in the very same event which Matt won back in 2015.

Alex's British Challenge win was on a fiddly course in Cornwall and he's been fifth at Crans and second at Galgorm Castle, suggesting that like Matt he might be better off between the trees. Their home course, the Hallamshire, is up and down and firmly inland, for all that it's vulnerable to wind (and lots and lots of rain) given that it's high up above the city.

Anyway, I suspect he might enjoy the Belfry, where his silky short-game could be a massive help, and if he turns in one of his better putting displays then he seems sure to go well. He's a solid driver whose iron play can improve again this week.

Clements meanwhile has been third at Galgorm Castle before, but it's the shape of his game right now which is most interesting having improved throughout each of his last three DP World Tour starts. He's the one who denied Wallace in Prague but I'm not quite sure he's ready to win an event like this.

Roll with Ramsay

There are players from Sweden, Spain and Japan who were on the radar but I'm going to look closer at their respective top nationalities markets instead, which left Andrew Johnston and RICHIE RAMSAY completing the shortlist.

• CLICK HERE to back Ramsay with Sky Bet

Johnston has an outstanding record when playing in England and it includes a top-20 here three years ago, so having contended in Prague and continued to strike the ball nicely in Denmark, this could be the week where he completes a popular comeback.

Preference though is for Ramsay, whose form has more substance to it. He was third last time out in the Czech Masters, a fine effort against a power handicap, and has been a frequent contender over the last few years.

Of course, that includes when he stuck one in the water with this tournament at his mercy but he exorcised that ghost by winning two months later at Hillside, and his suitability to the Belfry is underlined by four strong tee-to-green displays in as many visits.

Each of his four DP World Tour wins has come under difficult-to-middling scoring conditions, around tree-lined courses, where long driving doesn't actually get you very far, so he certainly has his optimal conditions after what was his performance of the season.

Not always are things in this sport that simple, but I ended last week's preview wondering whether they would be with Adrien Saddier, who was fifth at 66/1. Ramsay rates value at that price and bigger, in the hope that skipping Denmark hasn't worked against him.

Finally, a word on Andy Sullivan and Yannik Paul. Both were high on the shortlist, this being an ideal course, and for Sullivan we're talking career-goal territory as his hometown of Nuneaton is a 20-minute drive from the Belfry. He enjoyed a lot of support here last year and will do again, following what's been an encouraging run.

The issue is the price, which is about what it was in Denmark despite the addition of players like Hatton, Wallace, Lawrence, Ferguson, Laurie Canter and one or two more who help make this a stronger field. I think there might be a better way to support him and that too will feature in a specials preview on Tuesday, while Paul just hasn't quite shown that his trademark approach play is where it needs to be.

Posted at 1000 BST on 27/08/24

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