Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Bermuda Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Bermuda Championship

1.5pts e.w. Russell Knox at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1.5pts e.w. Brandon Wu at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Adam Long at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Callum Tarren at 60/1 (Sky Bet, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Sam Ryder at 70/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Chesson Hadley at 70/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Bermuda is a place I'm sure many would love to visit, but so far its attempts to attract the world's best golfers have not gone altogether well. First there was the Grand Slam of Golf, the most exclusive event in the sport, which was held here at Port Royal from 2009 to 2014. Designed to get the four major winners together, the final three renewals could only attract three, and Padraig Harrington won the title four years after his victory at the US PGA.

Then came the Bermuda Championship, the event we have now, first as an opposite which took place at the same time as the WGC-HSBC Champions and therefore was never able to lure the biggest names. The trouble is, elevating it to full FedEx Cup status, complete with bells and whistles like invites to the Masters and a two-year exemption, has not changed a thing. Still this is regarded as a week for the big names to take a breather, and only one member of the world's top 50 takes part.

That's not a good thing for everyone but it does give us a wide-open betting heat at a short course where anyone can be competitive. Two years ago, one of the shortest hitters on the PGA Tour, veteran Brian Gay, got the better of young, big-hitting Wyndham Clark in a play-off. Last year's leaderboard was more powerful but Gay put up a stout defence in 12th, Peter Malnati was seventh, and ultimately the winner would go on to rank first for the season in strokes-gained putting despite his Bermuda performance not counting towards that.

It's impossible to escape the fact that three renewals have been won by three outrageously good putters, Brendon Todd, Gay and Lucas Herbert, nor that others of a similar ilk have gone close – Clark, for instance, has at times been talked about as one of the best on the circuit. That's good news for the favourite, Denny McCarthy, who now holds that title and ought to be comfortable on greens which share the same name as the country where the tournament is held.

McCarthy actually arrives here off two poor putting displays in succession, his long-game having been solid, so if his chief strength returns then we should expect him to add to a fine course record which shows three cuts made in three, a best of fourth, and rounds of 63 and 65. He does look the right favourite and I'd caution those banking on JP Fitzgerald helping Thomas Detry to finally win that he actually employs a different caddie on the PGA Tour, McIlroy's former bagman only alongside for his European missions.

Opportunity Knox for class act

Ultimately these are two longstanding maidens so we shouldn't run scared of them. Indeed Seamus Power is not just the highest-ranked player here but the only one under 40/1 who has won at this level, so my eye was drawn to him and the other decorated player towards the front of the market, RUSSELL KNOX.

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Knox was my headline tip at 50/1 last year in a stronger field headed by Matt Fitzpatrick, and in playing well on all three Bermuda starts he's ranked second, first and third for greens in regulation. Given that it was just one bad hole that saw him miss the cut in Vegas, and that he subsequently finished on the front foot at the ZOZO, I think he's probably playing better than when 12th here a year ago.

Throw in the effective dip in class and the long-time Florida resident has to be of interest again, with bermuda greens like these as likely as any to help him to a good putting week. And, to be fair to the Scotsman, he putted well on his first two starts of the new season, adequately at the Shriners, and over his last 24 rounds ranks in the top third among this field, his best display coming on similar greens at the Wyndham.

If he continues to better the field average in that department, one of the most accurate and outright classy players in this field really ought to go close. We know he's enjoyed all three trips here, averaging 68.3, contending on debut after an opening 64 and defying a slow start to shoot weekend 67s last year, and his best form correlates strongly.

Short but straight off the tee, Knox's sole US win came at a sub-7,000-yard course which can be tied together with Bermuda through Todd and Kramer Hickok, his play-off defeat in Mexico came under similar conditions at a course where Todd followed up after winning here, and the Honda Classic where he lost a play-off to Russell Henley again came on a shorter course, where wind was a factor, and where putting well on bermuda greens is vital.

Speaking of wind, the forecast for this week includes a bit of everything, and there have been storms in recent days. Friday and Saturday in particular could help Port Royal show its teeth with gusts of up to 30mph and when that happens, the back-nine here can be particularly tricky. Winners have still had to get to 15-under in each of the last two renewals but given the strength of this field and the forecast, we might see something closer to 10-under should the worst of the weather arrive.

That hopefully won't bother BRANDON WU, whose love for seaside golf has already been demonstrated by a quality performance in the 2019 US Open while still an amateur, then in qualifying for the Open Championship in dominant fashion, before he finished well for sixth place behind Xander Schauffele in the Scottish Open to again earn a major start the following week.

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We can also throw in third place in the Puerto Rico Open, where he was bang in contention at 80/1. That event is a natural companion to this one and Wu threatened to win it despite having missed his first six cuts to begin the year.

In fact if you work backwards from that effort, Wu's only previous cut made during his rookie PGA Tour season came here in Bermuda, where he made a nice Saturday move with a five-under 66 but stalled on Sunday at a time when confidence was low. To perform as he did during a particularly difficult spell – he hadn't played well on the Korn Ferry Tour in months, either – suggests Port Royal is a nice fit, and so it should be given that he isn't the longest of hitters.

Again, that helps explain why his best display towards the back end of last season was eighth place at the Wyndham Championship, where he led at halfway, and it's clear that once he found his feet with that performance in Puerto Rico, Wu produced plenty of good golf. All told he bagged four top-10 finishes from March to August and that's why he was close to making the BMW Championship.

It's fair to say the new season hasn't fully taken off for him yet, but after a missed cut on his return following a month away, at a course where he's struggled in the past, Wu was 10th at halfway in the Sanderson Farms. After that he climbed from 117th after round one to comfortably make the cut in the Shriners, shooting 11-under for his final three rounds, and that run of scores in the sixties was extended to six as he played well until Sunday at the ZOZO Championship.

This is all highly encouraging now that he returns to a level similar to that of Puerto Rico for the first time since, and while I'm concerned about his approach play numbers, he did hit a lot more greens in Japan where that data wasn't available. Hopefully he's turned a corner and one way or another, we're talking about a college star with a very bright future and some of the best form on offer. At 50/1, he's the best bet anywhere this week.

While Wu's FedEx Cup position owed to bursts of quality displays, ADAM LONG finished just behind him through consistently good golf: he went the entire season without a top-10 and yet was 81st in regular-season points despite having to withdraw from the Wyndham Championship, before signing off in low-key fashion at Southwind.

• CLICK HERE to back Long with Sky Bet

That consistency can be seen through the fact he didn't lose strokes in any department and this rock-solid driver has really started to thrive on the greens, ranking inside the top 30 last season and towards the top of the embryonic standings so far in the new one. Combined with the rest of his game, it should make him a threat in low-key events such as this.

Having won so early on in his PGA Tour career, Long has seldom played in such weak company because he hasn't had to, but he has gone close to winning the Mayakoba Classic which Gay and Todd have done in the past, and where 2021 Bermuda runner-up Danny Lee ought to have won in 2018, just as Knox might've in 2015.

It's a really good guide to this and so should be the Corales Puntacana Championship, held in the Dominican Republic. Again we're talking about island golf where the wind always plays a role and where shorter hitters have been able to compete, and Long was the 54-hole leader on his sole start there at PGA Tour level before eventually adding fifth place to a top-10 on the Korn Ferry Tour.

Also in the mix in the Bahamas on the second tier, and with 12th place at Harbour Town plus a good record at Sea Island also to his name, Long looks a likely course fit on his debut in Bermuda. He also looks underrated by the market, as there were only three players in this field who finished ahead of him in the strokes-gained total stats last season, with just two ahead if you measure the last 50 rounds. All are half the price he is or less, and none have done what he has and won a PGA Tour title in the past.

That's a better guide than FedEx Cup points which are more volatile and better reward freakishly good weeks, nevertheless Long was fifth among this lot last season, Chad Ramey the only proven winner who outscored him owing to his victory in the Dominican Republic. Ramey by the way is somewhat interesting but his overall form is a worry, whereas Long's is just fine.

As far as the new season goes, he can be excused a slow start at the Fortinet Championship as his second child had been born days before. Since then he's showcased that hot putter to finish 30th at the Sanderson Farms, at a course where his best in five tries is 23rd, and then came a solid effort in Japan where he was inside the top 15 after rounds one and two, shot 68 in round three, and then faded during a poor Sunday.

The potential nappy factor, the drop in grade, the correlating form and the fact he beat Phil Mickelson to win the Desert Classic are all part of the argument here, but above all else he looks a player whose underlying numbers suggest he should be going off no bigger than 33/1 in this field.

Ryder can get his hands on the cup

I'm a big Robby Shelton fan and he's a deadly putter who knows how to win, but his first try here wasn't encouraging and his record in similar events is a concern, with the exception third place in the Barbasol when still an amateur. Certainly, he has something to prove in the wind and it could be that experience is key here, which puts SAM RYDER on my radar.

• CLICK HERE to back Ryder with Sky Bet

Born and raised in Florida, where he still resides, Ryder has spent his entire golfing life putting on bermuda greens and coping with wind. It's one which didn't really begin until his late-teens so he's a slow burner, but I quite like how he's gone about scrapping his way to a solid PGA Tour career, exemplified by his FedEx Cup rankings: 109th, 109th, 102nd, 103rd and 114th.

Throughout these five seasons he's always been above-average with his approaches and his other main strength is putting, which is back on track now. He's gained strokes in each of the last two completed campaigns, ranks 24th early on in this one, and will be hoping to keep it up and match his personal best of 23rd back in 2019.

That was the year he made his Bermuda debut and sole start so far, missing the cut by a shot after a second-round 69, but Ryder's runner-up finish in the Dominican Republic and third place in Puerto Rico are huge pointers towards his chances here. So are two top-10 finishes in the Honda Classic, third place in Mexico, and the fact he's twice hit the frame in similar company at the Barbasol Championship.

Right now he's bubbling under, sitting sixth at halfway in the ZOZO Championship and ninth at the same stage of the Shriners only to fade. He narrowly missed the cut in the Fortinet after five weeks off, played fine in the Sanderson Farms, and looks to be doing what he does nicely: not only is he currently inside the top 30 in putting, but he's up there in the strokes-gained approach charts, too.

Given that he won a Korn Ferry Tour title in runaway fashion and beat Bermuda contender Taylor Pendrith in a play-off in Canada once upon a time, plus the way he's fought to keep his head above water, Ryder has a bit about him. Perhaps he can show it on his second start here and add to a fine record in these weaker PGA Tour events, and he's a bet at 50/1 and upwards.

Will Gordon has already shown us how talented he is and this fabulous ball-striker could emulate Pendrith, but I am a little worried about how well his short-game will hold up in the wind and return to the idea that experience is generally to be seen as a positive this week.

As such, another North Carolina player gets the nod in CHESSON HADLEY, who was 16th here in 2020 despite arriving out of sorts.

• CLICK HERE to back Hadley with Sky Bet

Also 13th on his debut in the Dominican Republic and a winner in Puerto Rico, Hadley is a class act in this kind of company and he hinted at that during summer, starting the Barbasol Championship as a 33/1 shot albeit failing to fire there before getting back on track thereafter.

Four top-10 finishes across his final eight starts demonstrate a player returning to his best and while the beginning of the new season saw that progress stall, he only missed his first two cuts narrowly before firing four under-par rounds, capped off by a Sunday 66, at the Shriners three weeks ago.

Hadley came home in 32 on Sunday in Las Vegas and that's despite missing several chances, including a five-footer at the last. It was a key sign that nothing much has changed since he was finishing fifth in the Travelers behind Schauffele, 10th in the John Deere behind JT Poston, 10th in the 3M Open behind Tony Finau, and eighth in the Wyndham behind Tom Kim.

This is really good form in this context and though Hadley has a wild drive in him, there's a strong case to be made that his approach play has never been better since something clicked in May. Whether that's true or not, he's gained strokes with his irons in 10 of 12 measured starts, twice ranking in the top five, and he's improved with every appearance since the new season began.

A crack putter who ranked 13th last season, Hadley's credentials here look really strong and I don't mind the idea that the timing might help. He'll have sat watching the CJ Cup reminded that he blew a big lead at the same course last year, and missing an event like that so close to home will sting. He has the class to make amends here.

At bigger prices, Cody Gribble catches the eye somewhat. His last three starts on the Korn Ferry Tour saw him finish ninth, 26th and 12th, a notable return to form after missing two full years with injury, and of course his sole PGA Tour win so far came in a weak event at this time of year.

Once a very good amateur who played with the likes of Jordan Spieth and Scottie Scheffler, Gribble's latest outing saw him birdie three of his final five holes at second stage Q-School to secure Korn Ferry Tour rights for next year. In here as a late call-up, this is a free shot for a player who is driving the ball well again and it wouldn't have taken much more on the price to chance him, but enough firms are wise to his improvement to force me to leave him out.

Ben Martin was also considered, as his approach play has improved with each start this season and a final-round 66 in the Shriners was the latest in a string of low numbers recently. In fact, he managed two 62s and a 63 among his final 10 rounds on the Korn Ferry Tour, winning back his card, and earlier this year was an emotional runner-up to Ramey in the Dominican Republic.

He's definitely the one I'd regret given that his putting has been better than the numbers suggest for the most part, but I'm quite keen to add another bigger hitter with the course potentially quite soft, and have come down on CALLUM TARREN.

• CLICK HERE to back Tarren with Sky Bet

Hopefully revitalised following a trip home to Darlington, Tarren should see this as an opportunity to build on some excellent golf from late-spring through to the end of the season. The fact he finished 112th in FedEx Cup points tells you everything, as exiting the Genesis Invitational in February he was unranked because he was still stuck on zero.

After stepping up to finish 30th in the Honda, Tarren then took fifth place in Puerto Rico and kicked on from there, bagging top-10s at the John Deere and the 3M Open and showing up well in the US Open beforehand. Come the end of the regular season he finished 20th and 27th to cement his place in the Playoffs, where a missed cut at Southwind is easily forgiven.

All of this puts him towards the top of the field in terms of strokes-gained since June and to a large degree this can be explained by putting improvements which were in evidence once more on the bermuda greens of Jackson two starts ago. Subsequently shooting 69-70 to miss the cut narrowly in Las Vegas, there's really nothing much to forgive in my eyes.

Granted, he was disqualified when set to miss the cut here last year, but remember his form was horrendous and would remain that way until February. He has improved enormously since then, threatening to win in better fields than this one and generally performing at a higher level than many of those in front of him in the betting.

Ninth place in the Bahamas plus that top-five in Puerto Rico are nice pointers and his blend of power and improved putting make this late bloomer a good fit if the course does play longer than usual. He's the riskiest of the six selections but there's plenty of mileage in prices of 50/1 and upwards.

Posted at 1150 BST on 25/10/22

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