While the Open takes centre stage this week, the Barracuda Championship provides an opportunity which Ben Coley feels may be taken by a wily veteran like Ryan Moore.
Golf betting tips: Barracuda Championship
1pt e.w. Troy Merritt at 100/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Russell Knox at 150/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Ryan Moore at 150/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Joel Dahmen at 150/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Marcus Kinhult at 150/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Martin Laird at 200/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
0.5pt e.w. Kyle Reifers at 450/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Let's face this head on: the above staking plan doesn't exactly read like a list of upcoming PGA Tour winners, does it? There's a lack of, well, vim. After Vincent Norrman and Trevor Cone thrashed their way into battle at the Barbasol Championship, might we be missing the opportunity to uncover the next big talent here in the Barracuda?
Maybe. But there is a stark contrast between the soft and vulnerable Keene Trace, where driver holds the key, and Old Greenwood at Tahoe Mountain Club. This is a course where experience can go a long way, where choosing your moments and avoiding disaster is vital. Norrman and Cone last week, yes, but this was Chez Reavie versus Alex Noren last year.
There are always outliers, and Collin Morikawa's first PGA Tour victory came when he birdied five of the final six holes. Morikawa was in-form, as most champions have been in fairness, but while an explosive, young talent, we also know his game is built around precision. Greatness comes from his approach work and even the fact he has an old head on young shoulders.
The other big difference between these two opposite events is that we're now playing stableford, generally the domain of the weekend golfer. In simple terms this format rewards good holes more than it penalises bad ones. You can pick up five points for an eagle, but you'll lose no more than three. Birdies are worth two, bogeys cost you only one.
The winner will have produced one of if not the single best stroke play scores, but there's cause and effect at play. We come back to experience: there are times to take on flags you might have shied away from under any other circumstance. Reavie's two eagles early in the tournament proved vital in earning him a one-point win. He made just five more throughout the rest of the season.
Not that the top of the betting is without temptation. California's own Akshay Bhatia for instance makes stacks of birdies, his approach play is excellent, and he said 'I know I'm so close to winning out here' after a top-10 finish last week. There will be those keen to get ahead with one of the few potential stars in this field and I can see why.
Justin Suh's appeal is similar. More accurate off the tee but less assured with his approaches, you'd make an alternate-shot combination of these two studs a strong favourite. Suh also holds the edge on the greens but while he lives in Las Vegas and has form at altitude, which is a huge factor here on the Nevada border, I'm not sold on this being his course. I'm not sure why he'd have skipped the Scottish Open, either.
With in-form Taylor Pendrith quickly cut back to last week's odds in this stronger field, and former SoCal resident Luke List not quite convincing enough despite taking a noted drop in grade, it didn't take me too long to give up on the front of the betting. Perhaps this will be a good chance for Mark Hubbard or Stefan Jaeger, but if there's value I don't see it.
Slow and steady might win this race
By contrast I had a bit of a double take when I saw JOEL DAHMEN's price and he's precisely the sort of straight-hitting class act who could win this low-grade event.
Dahmen's run of missed cuts, which now stands at five, is the main reason he's been cast out with the rags and the fact is he's without a top-40 finish all year, bar the pairs event in New Orleans. Strictly on the form book, of course he's considered an unlikely champion.
But here's a player who fought hard to make the cut at the PGA Championship, who sat fifth after round one of the Heritage when a similar price for a considerably better event, and whose game might just be on the turn. I say that because following an opening 76 in Detroit, he shot back-to-back 68s before missing the cut by one at the John Deere Classic.
🚁 @Joel_Dahmen with the helicopter! pic.twitter.com/55iKoJhMWH
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 13, 2022
Dahmen had been on course to make the weekend only to miss a short putt at the final hole, and that club explains his demise. He's one of the most accurate drivers in this field and while his season-long approach stats aren't as good as they have been, two big outlier performances undermine plenty of solid work.
So, the putter. It was above average in round two of the Rocket Mortgage Classic, as it was in round one in Illinois, before he was the field's +0.0 putter in round two. That's progress, albeit on a small scale, and it precedes this big drop in grade with time running out before the FedEx Cup Playoffs begin – thanks to his form before Christmas, Dahmen is within touching distance in 85th, with the top 70 making the BMW Championship.
He should come to Truckee focused, determined and hopefully encouraged, and as an opposite event winner in the Dominican Republic, he knows he's a class act in this grade even if he wouldn't admit it.
Then we come to the event itself. Dahmen was seventh here in 2021, his sole previous start at this course. At Montreux, which was less about finding fairways, he found himself fifth and 10th at halfway in two appearances early on in his PGA Tour career. That means he's been in the mix on all three Barracuda starts.
When playing here two summers ago, he revealed that he'd played Old Greenwood with friends a few years earlier, that he enjoyed both the course and the format, and that he benefited from some bonus family support. Dahmen's wife grew up less than an hour away and they spent evenings enjoying the hospitality of her grandma.
He clearly hasn't been near winning a tournament since the back end of 2022, but class can count for a lot when the PGA Tour drops a level. We've seen that many times in this event, since the days of the Reno-Tahoe Open, and if he can keep putting to a good standard there's no reason Dahmen can't improve hugely upon recent results.
Form at altitude really can be worth a lot and it's part of the case for longtime Vegas resident RYAN MOORE, who showed plenty when 14th at the Barbasol.
That course wouldn't be as obviously suitable as this one and the Barracuda is an event I reckon Moore might have won at some stage but for the fact he's generally operated at a higher level, and therefore didn't play in it from his 2008 debut until returning in 2020.
At a time when his game was not in good shape and with golf emerging from lockdown, Moore was right in the mix and produced Reavie-like numbers, ranking third in fairways and greens, first in accuracy and ball-striking. Reavie was the leader in driving accuracy last year with Martin Laird ranking second, a formula similar to that of champion Richy Werenski as Moore finished 12th.
"I mean, it's beautiful," he said. "I absolutely love it up here. I live not too far from here down in Vegas, so it was an easy trip. I checked out this golf course as much as I could online. It looked like a course I would enjoy visually, and it is.
"It's a great, fun, enjoyable golf course to play. It's very fair, and some good scoring opportunities out there."
Moore has missed the cut in both subsequent starts but his game has been quiet for a long time, or at least had been until recently. Sparked into life by returning to an old set of irons last Wednesday, he produced his best strokes-gained approach numbers in seven years, missing the places on account of some shoddy chipping when called upon.
Moore's work around the green is generally solid enough and he's improved his putting lately, which also helped him finish 25th in a much stronger Canadian Open. As is so often the case with this short, accurate driver, the course was key to that and it's why he popped up at Pebble Beach, as well as at the Wyndham and the Shriners last autumn.
Following last week's top 20 he said 'I like how I'm swinging it right now, I like how I feel' and Moore will be a factor again if he maintains that level of form. The slightly better field is less significant than a fundamentally more suitable course for someone who knows this part of the USA very well.
Event specialist worth sticking with
So does the aforementioned MARTIN LAIRD, last year's 33/1 headline selection who can now be backed at much bigger prices.
As with Dahmen, this reflects a generally torrid run of form but his driving, approach play and around the green stats all show signs of improvement of late, including last week when all three were strong but a bad putting display saw him miss the cut by a shot.
Laird has struggled all year with the putter with two exceptions which came in January and May, so we are taking on board a big weakness. That being said he'd lost strokes putting in five of six starts before he came here last year and contended all week, looking the likely winner at times during Sunday's final round.
Throughout his career, one which began in earnest when he went to college at high altitude in Colorado, Laird has relished these conditions. Two of his four PGA Tour wins came in the thin air of Las Vegas and his record in this down the years is astonishing: seven starts, six top-seven finishes, and a worst of 15th.
By definition he hasn't always arrived in form, as this is a class act who once ranked 21st in the world and wouldn't play in the event if he was eligible for something bigger, so I'm of the view that he simply shouldn't be available to back at three-figure prices given that he's never yet failed to contend over a 15-year period.
Remember, when 33s last year we didn't know for sure how he'd cope on his debut at this course, yet he ranked second in fairways, 11th in greens and seemingly even putted well at a time when he hadn't been. Nobody in the field boasts anything like as strong a set of form figures in this unique tournament and he's a must bet.
I also like Laird's compatriot, RUSSELL KNOX, who once shot 59 at altitude in Boise and has been third in the Shriners as well as 16th in this event when held over the state line.
Knox was in poor form when 25th here in 2020, featuring on the leaderboard early on, and then missed the cut by a shot in 2021. That was a classic format problem, as he shot a bogey-free second round but fell down the leaderboard because it featured just one birdie, and you get nothing for 17 pars.
It looks like a good course for the leader in this field in greens in regulation, who also ranks second among all 200-odd players for proximity to the hole, and is still a borderline top-level iron player. Knox is particularly effective with wedges and short irons, key clubs when the ball flies as far as it does here even for a short hitter like him.
That takes care of one of his main problems, a lack of distance, and the other is that putter again. However, Knox ranked 30th for putting at the Barbasol and 35th in the Travelers recently, two of his last four starts. It's been much better than when he was missing everything he looked at during spring.
With his approach play still firing and this course far less likely to punish his short but pretty straight driving, Knox might be ready to step up and contend in California, where his dad is from and where he's spent plenty of time on and off the course.
Another Swede success story?
Once again you'll see that I've avoided the DP World Tour regulars for the most part despite a near-miss for Nathan Kimsey last week. Ultimately he was gifted a play-off chance after a flying finish; for most of the Barbasol, it appeared virtually certain that a PGA Tour member would win, those for whom there's a lot less at stake.
I will however make an exception for MARCUS KINHULT, a big talent who must take inspiration from Norrman's dramatic (and immensely frustrating) play-off victory.
Kinhult was there beside the 18th green to congratulate his former national teammate and he wasn't the only family member to do so, as his sister, Frida, is Norrman's girlfriend.
This is the sort of angle I like to pursue – look how Nicolai Hojgaard followed his brother Rasmus's latest win and not for the first time – but there's also a nice case to be made based on Kinhult's golfing profile.
It’s a Swede bonanza on the pro golf leaderboards this morning—amateur Ludvig Åberg tied for the lead in Dubai and PGA Tour rookie Vincent Norrman T4 at Farmers. (Cool aside: Norrman’s girlfriend is LPGA player Frida Kinhult, the winner of the 2020 Symetra Tour Championship.) pic.twitter.com/GlXYMyIHCV
— Stina Sternberg (@StinaSternberg) January 27, 2023
Second in South Africa, eighth having been second through 54 holes in Kenya and six-from-six in Switzerland where he contended for the European Masters when still an amateur, Kinhult has stacks of form at altitude and generally on shorter, tree-lined courses.
Crans looks an obviously comparable course to this one, as Noren might attest to, and Kinhult's game is also based on accuracy from the tee, good iron play and at times deadly putting. It was only the putter that hurt him at the Barbasol, where he ranked fourth in strokes-gained tee-to-green, and this place is a better fit.
JC Ritchie is the other I looked at, having double-bogeyed the last in an otherwise excellent 64 on Sunday. The South African is a real flusher who looks to be getting there on the greens and, as you might expect, he has loads of form including several wins high up back home.
Greyson Sigg also made the long list but I'll opt for forgotten man TROY MERRITT at 80/1 and upwards.
This time last week, Merritt had been heavily supported for the Barbasol Championship. In fact he was around the 33/1 mark from twice that when withdrawing to take up a late opening in the Scottish Open field, where he played well at times despite flying in on Tuesday night only to pay the price for finding a fairway bunker at the tough 18th.
A few days later and he's triple the price, despite having been runner-up to Morikawa in this event in 2019 and then again in 2020 at this course, when Werenski edged him out. Born and raised in Boise, Merritt has talked about how comfortable he is playing at altitude, and he's long been a prolific birdie-maker, once winning £1million for the season-long Kodak Challenge.
The big question mark, which also applied a week ago, concerns the dreaded yips. Merritt had admitted to them before the gamble emerged ahead of the Barbasol, one which was based on a past victory there and back-to-back top-20s in the run-up, his long-game excellent.
There’s been a lot of tweaking and changing. What I’ve realized is to go back to making it simple. It hasn’t completely solved the problem, but there have been plenty more positive strokes. You can’t miss short putts out here and keep your job, hence my current predicament… https://t.co/9Ck1nDcQCe
— Troy Merritt (@TROYMERRITT_PGA) July 8, 2023
Now, the PGA Tour have published a feature on those yips, Merritt having opened up about the issues he's faced for the best part of 18 months. If he doesn't find an answer he'll probably lose his PGA Tour card and, a busy journeyman whose best years are likely behind him, this could well be the end of his career at the top level.
Yet in facing the issue head on, perhaps he'll be rewarded. There have been some better signs, too, as he put a horror show at the Travelers behind him to improve throughout his next two starts before a slight step backwards under less familiar conditions in Scotland.
Travelling back from there won't be easy but Noren almost overcame it and Merritt has contended straight off a flight from the UK before. At a course made for him I can't help but wonder why he's fallen out of favour in a few short days. Anything bigger than 66/1 factors in that putting risk.
Finally, I've been compelled to add a seventh selection after bookmakers underestimated Monday qualifier KYLE REIFERS.
A former play-off loser in this event, his record in it reads 73-2-9-18 and while all those were at Montreux, he should be more suited to a course which places greater emphasis on accuracy – at his peak he was one of the very straightest drivers around.
Reifers had dropped off the grid following a poor 2017 season owing to some health issues, but he's now qualified for four PGA Tour events this season, including three in the last month, which speaks to how well he's playing and how much better he's feeling.
Kyle Reifers Monday Q’d three of the last four (his only miss was by one). I talked to him about being healthy, a new baby, and playing well.
— Monday Q Info (@acaseofthegolf1) July 18, 2023
He will play in the @CudaChamp this week. pic.twitter.com/jcmw8PTcqH
Buoyed by having become a father and with his 40th birthday not too far away, he made the cut in the top-class Travelers, then climbed to 26th through three rounds in Detroit before a difficult Sunday saw him fade away.
He'll need to improve a bit more to land the place money but this event is perfect for him and the three tournaments he's played so far in 2023 have been won by Tony Finau, Keegan Bradley and Rickie Fowler, all looking for a Ryder Cup spot and playing in the Open this week.
Down at this level, his efforts in Monday qualifiers suggest he shouldn't be the 450/1 no-hoper he's listed as with bet365. Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Betfair quote 400/1, with some other firms closer to 150/1. It's always fun when a player hasn't yet been added to Betfair Exchange or the Oddschecker grid.
True, Monday qualifiers seldom win, but guess what? Reifers himself did it on the Korn Ferry Tour many moons ago. Anything upwards of 200s will do.
Posted at 1400 BST on 18/07/23
