Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Austin Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Austin Championship

2pts e.w. Pierceson Coody at 28/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Rico Hoey at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Eric Cole at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Luke Clanton 70/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Emiliano Grillo 70/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)

0.5pt e.w. Joe Highsmith 300/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

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For the second time during the FedExCup Fall, the PGA Tour heads to a new venue for an entirely new tournament, one made quasi-famous by the chain reaction to one of the worst adverts commissioned in the history of advertising. Now backed by a new sponsor, the Austin Championship presented by Compliance Solutions goes ahead and, as it's the penultimate event of the season, there is a heck of a lot on the line.

First and foremost, the top 100 on the FedExCup is where everyone wants to be – it means full status for 2027 and that might be more valuable than ever given the changes to come in 2028. After that, watch for the old 125 cut-off, now used for conditional status, while slots 51-60 will be reward with starts in the first two Signature Events of next season. Given that they're at Pebble Beach and Riviera, that too represents a sizeable carrot.

It's a shame then that Jordan Spieth, 64th in the standings, has elected not to play for his place. Presumably that's based on the guarantee of an invitation to these two events and as a past champion he'll certainly be asked along to Pebble Beach but as we're in Austin, three hours from his childhood home and the city in which he went to college, it nevertheless seems odd not to try to build on what were clear signs of encouragement at the Baycurrent Classic.

Local ties are one of just a handful of ways into this tournament. We're close to the grounds of the University of Texas, where favourite Doug Ghim forged such a strong college career only now being matched by his high-level consistency as a professional. There are other, more recent examples in this field, too: Christiaan Maas and Tommy Morrison for instance, who along with Austin resident Cole Sherwood are graduates from the Korn Ferry Tour getting an early taste of this level.

We're also close to the former home of the WGC-Match Play and there are of course three other active events in Texas: the Houston Open, the Texas Open, and the Charles Schwab. Austin GC is a very different layout, but there are some apparent parallels with Memorial Park (wide fairways), San Antonio (course composition) and Colonial (tree-lined), so maybe there are clues to be found within these courses and the tournaments they've hosted.

All could help unravel a complex puzzle, but this course itself should be the starting point. Designed by Tom Fazio (Quail Hollow, Corales, PGA National), the Fazio Canyons Course at Omni Barton Creek is a stock-length par-72 which was extensively and expensively renovated four years ago. The fairways are generally wide, there's a lot of elevation change, and overall you'd have to think of this as a second-shot course not unalike the other debutant which hosted the Biltmore Championship a couple of months ago.

That there's been rain around combined with those wide fairways, four chunky but reachable par-fives and a potentially driveable par-four, would also suggest longer drivers could hold an advantage. We'll see how receptive this place is when play begins, but it certainly seems like it'll encourage frequent driver usage and of all the other courses Fazio has had a hand in on the PGA Tour (including some redesign work at Sea Island, for example), on paper it would appear to best compared to Quail Hollow, though likely not as challenging.

Ghim's chance is obvious but 14/1 is no gift, so at twice those odds I'll kick things off with PIERCESON COODY.

Born into a golfing dynasty three hours north of here, just outside of Dallas, Texas would be a fitting place for Coody to break through. He went to college in Austin, too, and even before becoming an ambassador for Omni, had played this course before. It's not clear just how often he's done so, but there are stories of him and his twin brother being on the range at Barton Creek and that potentially puts him at an immediate advantage.

I am though more interested and intrigued by the way he's hitting the ball. Coody, a long driver so far best known for that and his ability to produce big putting spikes in both directions, arrives here having ranked seventh in strokes-gained approach in each of his last two starts. Last week's figures were juiced by a first career hole-in-one and it seems he is dialled in at just the right time.

As he is hugely powerful (for a time last year, he might've been the best driver on the planet), the blend of wide fairways and a bit of rain has to be considered a positive, and while he endured a horrendous putting week in Mexico, that's kind of him. Coody had been 16th in putting on his previous start and when he'd last putted horrendously back in August, he ranked 13th just a week later. Similarly, he was the fourth-best putter in the Open, having been one of the very worst in the Scottish Open.

This isn't to say last week's putting is a positive, but had he been field average he'd have been bang in the mix and his price for this home event would've tumbled. As such I'll take it as a good thing and lean into the fact that as well as being theoretically advantaged by playing in Texas, he's been fifth at Colonial, and went WD-19-22 here earlier in the season.

At 60th in the FedExCup standings he has so much to play for and I dare say he would rather not be going to Sea Island next week, so among everyone in this field, I can't see a better blend of ball-striking, motivation, and home comforts. He'll be an extremely popular pick as a consequence; let's hope this is one of those joyous occasions where the golf betting community can enjoy Sunday night's TV viewing together.

Keep with Clanton

Johnny Keefer has lived in Texas since he was young and is another prodigious driver who should relish space off the tee. All five top-10s during this rookie season have come when he's been able to hit driver hard and often and were we absolutely sure of that being the case, maybe he'd have been worth chancing. The trouble is he's gone MC-MC in Mexico and played horrendously last Friday, so there's not enough to merit taking a chance.

Austin Smotherman meanwhile went to college in Texas and some will be surprised to see a player on a hat-trick priced at 35/1. I'll admit I was one of those, but I'll also admit to feeling that he simply won't be able to capture lightning in a bottle to win three on the spin. The list of players to have done that this century reads Woods, Singh, McIlroy, Johnson. Yes, these are lower-level PGA Tour events, but it still seems unfathomable. Perhaps that will prove short-sighted on my part.

Ready preference is for LUKE CLANTON, who I feel sure will be wanting in on the action after wins for Michael Brennan, Michael Thorbjornsen, Jackson Koivun and Blades Brown over the past few months.

Remember, it's less than 18 months since Clanton turned pro and was thrown straight into a marquee group at the Canadian Open, such were his college achievements which extended to almost winning on the PGA Tour. He is a massive talent and, gradually, he's started to find his feet as a professional, enough perhaps to think a win could be around the corner.

Of course, he came closest when second at Sea Island so next week's RSM Classic could be the one, but at 126th in FedExCup points he can't afford to pass up any opportunity. Plus, like Sea Island, the bermuda greens here in Texas could be a big help to him (his other closest call came at Sedgefield, where they're also bermuda) as he was born and raised in Florida. Conditions will be far from alien to him.

And, like Coody, Clanton's irons are in a good place. He's now up to 20th for the season in strokes-gained approach, eighth in this field, and his putting has turned a corner too. Although still 106th for the season, that represent a climb of more than 40 places in his last four starts, all of which have seen him beat the field average. Evidence of the reliability of his long-game can be seen in the results he's therefore been able to produce: 7-11-29-33.

Those numbers might be heading in the wrong direction but his irons were going the right way again last week and the big greens here in Austin should hopefully mitigate some chipping issues, as he'd be among the favourites to top the greens-in-regulation charts. He made plenty of birdies (12th in the field) and I'm hopeful that those fundamentals, approach play and putting, can carry him into contention at a course he ought to like the look of.

Next, I wonder whether RICO HOEY's putting improvements have slipped below the radar somewhat, certainly compared to when he first went to the broom handle and showed the odd positive sign.

Hoey is a truly exceptional driver of the ball whose tee-to-green game rivalled Scottie Scheffler's at times a year or so ago, but he is very much from the Lucas Glover school of putting. That being said, so were recent winners Smotherman and Andrew Novak, so perhaps we shouldn't be too discouraged anyway.

But the improvements he's shown are where I see cause for optimism. Hoey has gained strokes putting five times in his last seven starts and as he continues to excel with driver (gained more than 0.75 strokes per round in this department five times in his last six, 16th for the season), we might just have the required formula for him to do something over the next fortnight.

This looks more obviously suitable than Sea Island, too, so from 107th in FedExCup points it feels like Hoey's best chance to ensure full status for next year.

Also of note is an excellent record in Texas. He went 28-19-17 in the spring, all of those stronger tournaments, and has often played above his usual level here for whatever reason. Elsewhere on the PGA Tour, Hoey averages about 0.2 strokes-gained per round, i.e. he's slightly better than the average player. Here, that figure rises to +0.84, which would make him a very good one – in fact it would be enough to rank inside the top 20 of all members.

An expected sterner test of ball-striking versus wide-open courses in Mexico has to help and providing he can continue to beat the field average in putting, Hoey can flush his way into the mix and into the top 100 with it.

Sudarshan Yellamaraju played well twice in Texas earlier this year and is of some interest, but along with Ricky Castillo I have too many concerns over approach play. Castillo, who has a top-five at PGA National to his name, has been below-average in both seasons so far, while Yellamaraju has been poor lately. His prodigious driving has been seen to great effect on courses whose fairways are hard to miss but there might be more trouble off the tee here.

On Castillo, five of his best putting displays on the PGA Tour have come on bermuda greens as he enjoys the benefits of having been based in Florida since attending college there. That piqued my interest along with third place at the Biltmore, which could be the most relevant course we've seen lately, but if this is a 'second-shot course' as described by the PGA Tour, he may struggle to double his tally for the season as Smotherman and Jacob Bridgeman have both managed lately.

And it's that second shot which I've come to believe is worth focusing on, so we'll take on board concerns over ERIC COLE's driving and hope that the space on offer here helps in that regard.

Cole came close to getting off the mark in Texas earlier this year, losing a play-off at Colonial. Combined with the fact his previous play-off defeat came at Fazio's PGA National, there we have two interesting form lines with this in mind.

He's competed at big, wide courses, too: fifth at Craig Ranch and 15th at Memorial Park here in Texas, plus fifth and 10th across the two expansive, resort courses in Mexico. Sometimes we can assume players of Cole's skill set are a bad match for these wider layouts but actually, taking pressure off him (as we saw with Denny McCarthy last week) can be a massive plus.

Most importantly, his primary strength is back firing. Cole's approach work has improved five starts running and he's ranked 12th and seventh the last twice. Unfortunately, these coincided with poor putting performances but this is an excellent putter who knows and is comfortable on bermuda having been based in Florida for a long time now.

Cole bagged a top-50 FedExCup spot which means he's able to be selective about his Fall schedule and after his best tee-to-green performance since eighth place at the Memorial (second-shot course with significant elevation changes), any further move towards a neutral driving week combined with the expected putting improvements could make him a big threat.

Next, again leaning into the hope that Colonial proves a worthwhile guide, EMILIANO GRILLO is worth chancing.

This is a classy player who is 115th in FedExCup points and there have been just enough hints lately that he has it within to salvage full status for next year, particularly given that his irons have caught fire on several occasions.

Three times in seven starts, Grillo has ranked inside the top five for strokes-gained approach and while some may assume that's normal for a player like him, it hasn't been for a while. Not since last summer has he been so dialled in and that ended with second place at a tree-lined course, Deere Run, as his putter joined the party.

As well as being a past champion at Colonial, Grillo has a couple of Fazio top-10s at PGA National and the Corales Puntacana, and as with Clanton I'm hopeful that some issues around the green are softened by the size of them. Likewise, flatter, resort-style greens may help from a putting perspective too.

He's made four cuts in a row since a modest return from a long break but Grillo needs more, and a tree-lined course, in Texas, where the emphasis might just be on the second shot, looks like it could help. With his need so obvious and having been a rare visitor to Sea Island, the time is now for one of the game's underachievers.

'Fazio Joe' worth chancing

It was tempting to lean more into longer drivers and at his best, Davis Thompson blends that with quality iron play. He was the same price as Ghim for the Biltmore and is now about four-times bigger after a modest run, but he's one I'd rather watch with next week in mind. Ultimately, he's become frustrating and as his driving has fallen off and the putter seldom gets hot, he has a few too many questions to answer.

JOE HIGHSMITH has even more of them but at the prices, he's the one outsider I want to take a chance on.

The reason for doing so is that Highsmith won the Cognizant at PGA National and his two subsequent top-10s have been at Fazio designs, including Quail Hollow in last year's PGA. That may be nothing at all but, in a week where we have to make some assumptions, it's an angle I'm willing to explore to minimum stakes.

We know he's a high ceiling, (very) low floor player so all options are on the table here, but there have been a few hints of promise since that sixth place at the Corales in July. Most notably, he was ninth after round one last week and had started quite well in the Mexico Open before that, even if he's ultimately extended his run of narrow missed cuts to three.

Highsmith is a long way down the FedExCup with his winner's exemption set to expire, so he needs a miracle. Last year's top-10 finish behind Scottie Scheffler in the PGA Championship wasn't far off being one of those and it came after he'd started very brightly a week earlier. History could just repeat itself if there's something in that Fazio connection.

Posted at 13:00 GMT on 10/11/26

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