Ben Coley's golf betting tips: AT&T National Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

1.5pts e.w. Matt Fitzpatrick at 40/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Chez Reavie at 100/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Pat Perez at 100/1 (William Hill, Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Greyson Sigg at 125/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Satoshi Kodaira at 200/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. James Hahn at 250/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

It's a good job Pebble Beach is Pebble Beach, because otherwise this week's PGA Tour event might stretch the patience of us hopeless souls who spend more than half a week obsessing over golf scores. It ought to be enough that we did the pro-am thing in the AmEx, and after three courses there and two at Torrey Pines, we should now be down to one. But we're not. Once more, we go multi-coursing for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where the calibre of celebrity rises with the calibre of courses.

Pebble Beach is holy ground, and if you've never been, I can't recommend it enough. Green fees might be prohibitively priced – several hundred dollars, or 1.5x the latest revolutionary driver – but to my amazement when visiting the Monterey Peninsula some years ago, you can basically just swan up, park your car, and stroll the grounds. Notwithstanding the game of beer pong taking place in the house to the right of the 18th fairway which rather undermined the zen aspect of it all, my experience was almost spiritual. What a place.

As far as this tournament goes, those characteristics mentioned at the top do appear to add some volatility. Prior to the AmEx, similarly spread across courses and with amateurs slowing things down, there was some good debate as to how much, if at all, that tournament's litany of shocks can be put down to its format and nature, and there's no clear answer. Nevertheless the anecdotal has a place here, and I'm increasingly disinclined to get carried away with the favourites when being stuck at the wrong course at the wrong time can be fatal.

Otherwise, the case for Patrick Cantlay is absolutely rock-solid. He's bang in-form, he elevated his game in 2021, and his Pebble Beach record is superb. This tournament also carries some personal significance, as it was here that he made his comeback from the injuries which could've ended his career before it had really started. That was in 2017, when he finished 48th – since then he's got better with each visit, culminating in third place a year ago.

The biggest positive, however, concerns those posited as the chief threats. The first of them, defending champion Daniel Berger, was struggling with an injury last week. The second, Will Zalatoris, has a rather more mental problem to overcome, and though he was right to draw positives from a play-off defeat, he may feel he should've won. Zalatoris did refer to a similar episode on the Korn Ferry Tour, where he bounced back to win a week later, but Pebble Beach is less suitable than Torrey Pines anyway so there are several reasons to swerve.

Jordan Spieth would appeal more than Jason Day, who is aiming to emulate Spieth in some way. A year ago, Spieth came here on the back of a Lazarus-like display in Phoenix, was accordingly slashed in the market, and backed it up. Day, 100/1 last week into 20/1 this, could do the same, and his Pebble Beach record demands the utmost respect. Nevertheless, 20/1 about the world number 83?

It's those world rankings which bring me nicely to the headline selection, MATT FITZPATRICK, who simply looks way overpriced at 40/1.

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By no means do I believe that world ranking should have much more than a tenuous correlation to price, but Fitzpatrick's does help illustrate the point. He is 25th currently, and that's despite choosing to skip a couple of valuable, Rolex Series events in the Middle East which would likely have helped improve that figure.

It puts him fourth among this field and I would actually suggest he's currently the fifth-best player, behind those mentioned minus Day himself. Fitzpatrick though is 10th in the market, and the negatives which explain such generous odds are nowhere near significant enough to shift him from the very top of my shortlist.

The first concern to address is his form in the event, which reads MC-60, but he played Pebble Beach nicely on his debut, and last time he came here had journalist and college friend Dan Rapaport on the bag. Rapaport is an excellent player and by no means do experienced caddies always equate to success, but he was filling the shoes of no ordinary caddie that week. Fitzpatrick is usually accompanied by the veteran Billy Foster, and will be here.

Besides, he showed he could play Pebble Beach when 12th in the US Open here in 2019. Yes, conditions were somewhat different, the course set-up far more severe, but there was correlation with the Pro-Am and if anything, conditions for this should suit better. US Opens tend to be the domain of the big-hitter these days, even at the short Pebble Beach, and to help demonstrate that point it was Gary Woodland who triumphed.

The second concern is the absence, this being Fitzpatrick's first start of 2022. This one is more difficult to address, as on the face of it the decision not to play for a lot of money in established DP World Tour events seems a little odd. But we can at least be sure that the Englishman is healthy, because he's been grinding away working on some subtle swing changes. Some may peg that as a third concern, but Fitzpatrick was quick to point out they are minor, the like of which players are often working on.

As far as the absence goes, one that stretches back to when he finished second to Collin Morikawa in November, it's not ideal. Nevertheless, Fitzpatrick does at least boast a good record fresh: second after two months out to kick off 2020, fourth a year earlier, third in 2018, fifth in 2015.

A couple of these were low-key events but two were fields comparable with this one, so it doesn't seem to be much of an excuse. Had he been struggling when last we saw him, maybe, but Fitzpatrick's four starts post-Ryder Cup resulted in a win at Valderrama and second place in the high-class DP World Tour Championship, where he made a brilliant charge on Sunday only to bump into one of the world's best players.

That Valderrama win is another indication that Fitzpatrick is at his best on shorter, more technical courses, and often tougher ones. Graeme McDowell has won at both, and while not like-for-like, the pair share many of the same qualities. Fitzpatrick has gone closest in the US at the Honda Classic on a short par 70 where Berger was once runner-up. He says his favourite course is Harbour Town, which is by the coast, features tiny greens, demands precision, and is also a place where McDowell has triumphed.

Last year, Fitzpatrick bagged a top-five finish at Harbour Town, a top-10 at Sawgrass, and was fifth here in California in the Genesis Invitational. Throw in 10th at Bay Hill, 11th at The Concession and 10th in the Palmetto Championship, and he was regularly on the fringes in PGA Tour events, his choice of schedule matching up with his preference for a nuanced test, the like of which he'll get across these three courses before hopefully playing Pebble Beach again on Sunday.

Ultimately, there isn't a better value bet anywhere this week to my mind, whatever the outcome.

Proven winners worth chancing at big odds

Typically I structure these previews in order of price, leaving the rags until the end, but on the subject of value I did think JAMES HAHN was especially appealing of those dismissed at upwards of 200/1.

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This tournament has produced many a skinner down the years, but always with some kind of logic. Ted Potter for instance had been 16th in the event previously, Vaughn Taylor inside the top 10 a year prior to his win, and namesake Nick Taylor also boasted a very good record at Pebble Beach, Monterey and Spyglass Hill.

DA Points had been 14th two years prior to winning, Matt Gogel had played well in both previous starts and been runner-up on debut and, for all its idiosyncrasies, the Pebble Beach Pro-Am has thrown up the same names pretty regularly. That's true of all these shocks and also Berger, who had been 10th and fifth before winning last year.

Hahn then shares plenty in common with some big-priced winners and he's been third here himself in 2013, when making just his fifth start as a PGA Tour member. In subsequent years we've learned that he's got a bit about him when in the mix, first beating Dustin Johnson and Paul Casey in a Riviera play-off and then conquering another championship course when winning at Quail Hollow.

The best clue that he might go well at Riviera was that it was something of a hometown event, a theme we've seen again courtesy of Max Homa in 2021. But home state will do and Hahn has so often played well throughout the west coast tournaments in general, starting really well in 2018, 2020 and 2021, winning at Riv in 2015, and producing a couple of top-five finishes early in his rookie season.

The exception to this is Torrey Pines, where he simply hasn't been able to get to grips with a South Course which is too long for him. Hahn had played there nine times, has missed the cut five times, and is yet to crack the top 40, which means that last week's failure to advance to the third round is of absolutely no concern whatsoever.

It's true that he also missed the cut in the AmEx, but I actually like what I've seen from him so far this season. Hahn gained two strokes with his approaches in his sole round at the South last week (70), and more than that during his sole round at the Stadium Course (70) a week earlier, frustratingly failing to take advantage of easier assignments elsewhere.

Having ended 2021 in good enough form, with 15th place in the ZOZO and 27th in Mexico before a bad start meant a second-round 66 in Houston wasn't quite enough, Hahn is playing better than his form figures show and he's a proven winner with form both in this event and during this part of the season. His win at Quail Hollow came after run of missed cuts where his iron play had nevertheless been good, and a repeat is far from impossible.

Anything 200/1 or bigger about Hahn looks an excellent way to speculate in an event which demands it, especially now we're back to a three-course rotation following last year's reduction to two.

While we're here, I'll lay out the case for SATOSHI KODAIRA at a similar price.

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The Japanese finished 12th on his first start this year, shooting 64-65-65 over the final three rounds of the Sony Open, where compatriot Hideki Matsuyama won in stunning fashion. After a quiet start, Kodaira played the final 54 holes better than anyone bar the Masters champion and course specialist Kevin Kisner, so it was a mighty performance.

Whether he can build on it remains to be seen but we know already this accurate type is best when faced with a challenge like that of Waialae. He won the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town because his fairways-and-green games can be deadly at a course like that, and the same ought to be true of these three short, turning, coastal layouts on the opposite side of the country.

Granted, he has missed the cut on both previous visits but I'm taken by the fact he gained strokes with all departments of his ball-striking in both rounds at Pebble Beach, where he hit 13 of 14 fairways on debut and clearly took to the challenge.

Now, the task is to crack Monterey and Spyglass and there can be no guarantees on either front. However, he is fundamentally the right kind of golfer, and having signed off last year in good form back home, he started this one with an excellent performance in the Sony Open. Here's hoping he can build on it.

David Lipsky is another outsider I looked at, as it's probably not a coincidence that he's shown a little more out on the west coast. Born in California, he made home comforts count with a solid effort in the Fortinet Championship to begin the year but cooled until playing much better across the last fortnight as the PGA Tour headed back to the west coast.

Now residing in Las Vegas, Lipsky will be eager to continue making the most of these opportunities while he can, and he's been very solid for a little while now. He also says a hole-in-one at Pebble Beach is among his favourite golfing memories, but this will be his debut in the tournament and he's just left out as a consequence in favour of another first-timer with more significant form at the course.

Roll the dice with Reavie

Experience can be extremely valuable in events like these, demonstrated by Hudson Swafford at the AmEx a couple of weeks ago, and I'll chance CHEZ REAVIE improving on a quiet start to the season.

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Reavie has done that before, and it's fair to say neither the AmEx nor the Farmers suit him anything like this does. At Torrey Pines he's played 10 times without a top-20 finish, and his best in a dozen tries at the AmEx, where he's missed his last three cuts, is a staying-on 12th.

Last year he played poorly in both but managed 16th place here despite lying 118th after the first round, in 2020 he followed three missed cuts with 25th place, and it was a similar story in 2016 when he suddenly found his scoring boots when arriving at Pebble Beach and led after a first-round 63.

It took Reavie a while to get to grips either with the course, the format or indeed both, but since finishing runner-up four years ago he's been very good, adding three encouraging finishes in this and taking third place in the US Open. That must be among his career highlights and he'll see this as the right time to kickstart his season.

Reavie's record in the event could look better still as he led the field in strokes-gained approach and ranked fifth overall at host course Pebble Beach last year, and led the field in scoring there in 2018. It's clearly a place he's especially comfortable and he'll be a danger if he can cope with the other two courses well enough, which he's done before.

It might be asking a little much to have Reavie follow home Luke List and Matsuyama, two players with similar putting troubles, but he's actually been putting reasonably well of late. The issue at Torrey Pines was that his trademark accuracy wasn't able to compete with the more wayward power of the main contenders, but here that won't be a problem and if he keeps pounding fairways, he can go well.

Similar comments apply to Russell Knox and Kevin Streelman who, like Reavie, have also won the Travelers Championship. That's significant because it's played on a short par 70 with bentgrass/poa annua greens, and for Reavie in particular that's ideal: he's statistically a poor putter, but climbs to average on poa annua. Knox and Streelman are also considered but there's not quite enough 50/1 around to justify selecting the latter.

Redemption for Perez?

Instead, I'll finish with PAT PEREZ, for whom victory would be quite the tale of redemption, and GREYSON SIGG, who is at the other end of the career spectrum.

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Twenty years ago, Perez led this tournament by a wide margin before double-bogey at the 14th hole on Sunday cut his lead, which was a shot when he stood on the 18th tee. There, he hit his first drive out-of-bounds, his second one left into the Pacific Ocean, and a dizzying 30 minutes later had made triple-bogey to hand the title to Gogel.

Chances are that will remain his best opportunity to win this title but he's since been fourth, seventh, 14th twice and 26th last year, and on several more occasions has been on the fringes of contention heading into the final round. Last year's effort was his best for several months and remained that way until June, and this formerly hotheaded character seems to enjoy an event in which he has won the corresponding team competition.

That means the timing of his sixth place in the Farmers Insurance Open was excellent, and it was an emotional return to form at a course where he used to work to earn money to practice while attending Torrey Pines High School. So strong is his connection with the place, his dad Tony, who was seriously unwell late last year, has for a long time been the announcer on the tee there.

"I’ve played so bad for so long," he told the San Diego Tribune on Sunday, where for a time he looked like he might be involved in the finish. "To play great here on a very hard course, to hit the shots I needed to, to make the putts I needed to, especially in front of San Diego, which I love more than anything... I didn’t win, but it felt like a win."

There is of course no guarantee that Perez can back it up but it was clearly a massive shot in the arm, and given that he's one of the shorter hitters around, it's fair to conclude this tournament ought to suit more. His first win came in a multi-course pro-am and if he's to add a fourth on the PGA Tour, where better than the place that owes him one after the events of 2002.

Sigg meanwhile has won at Pebble Beach as an amateur and despite not yet having managed a top-20 finish this season, he's done plenty to reinforce the view that he's one of the more capable Korn Ferry Tour graduates.

Two of just three missed cuts came only narrowly, he bagged some valuable experience in the heat of the battle when third at halfway in the AmEx, and after a slow start his climb from 96th to 34th last week caught the eye – especially as he's far from the longest.

Twice a winner last year, he has bags of potential and his long-game stats already mark him down as one to follow. Finding the right event is key and while a pro-am at Pebble Beach wouldn't have been at the very top of my list initially, this field is weak and three-figure prices look worth taking.

• CLICK HERE to back Sigg with Sky Bet

Posted at 2020 GMT on 31/01/22

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