Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Alfred Dunhill Links Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

2pts e.w. Alex Noren at 40/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Thorbjorn Olesen at 66/1 (Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Ewen Ferguson at 100/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Tom Lewis at 110/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Tapio Pulkkanen at 175/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Lucas Bjerregaard at 225/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship is the last of 10 tournaments in the UK and Ireland this year, and as usual there's a strong field for what's a lucrative event. Pro-am it might be, but any time there's a trophy to be won at the Old Course things have to get serious at some stage, while the size of the prize fund means this is an important week for those fighting for their status.

Rory McIlroy is back having skipped last year's renewal, and with his status as the world's best driver restored he's right at the top of his game. McIlroy landed the FedEx Cup before finishing second at Wentworth and fourth in Italy, with his 13 starts dating back to the Masters showing two wins and nine more places. No wonder he's again chalked up at prices which won't make you money if he does again hit the frame.

Appearing here alongside his dad, McIlroy has plenty to play for and that's before you cast your mind back to July, if you can do so without getting upset. It's impressive how McIlroy has responded to his Open Championship heartache but you can be sure it still hurts, and he might need to be on WhatsApp with Bob Rotella all week if he's to stride these fairways again without breaking down himself.

Shane Lowry, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton and Thomas Pieters are next in the betting, meaning half of next year's European Ryder Cup side are surely here. It's been a good little run for those hoping to join these world-class players in Rome and when you look down the odds list, you'll see any number of names who could make Luke Donald's wild cards, all of them viable candidates for glory this Sunday.

But if you shift focus to the weather forecast, you might think twice about taking short prices. By no means is it set to be foul throughout, and the slow greens and simple pins of this pro-am will always help, but Friday in particular threatens strong winds and heavy rain. With the earliest tee-time set for 9am and rounds lasting beyond six hours, if the forecast holds there won't be anyone who avoids facing the full force of the elements.

Even in fair weather, the three-course rotation and the very nature of links golf adds uncertainty, so this looks a week for taking chances even if strong fields tend to throw up strong rolls of honour. It is no coincidence that this event and the Scottish Open have been more volatile so while the likes of Hatton, Fleetwood and Lowry should play well as they usually do here, they can be taken on along with the favourite.

I'll start with ALEX NOREN, who has all the tools to win this and looks overpriced at 40/1.

• CLICK HERE to back Noren with Sky Bet

The Swede is a 10-time winner on the DP World Tour, four of those coming in the UK and one of them under links conditions, as he saw off subsequent Dunhill winner Hatton in the 2016 Scottish Open.

Third in that event previously and with five Open Championship top-20s from just 10 starts, he's without question a real specialist under these conditions and that extends to cool, damp weather. Like so many Scandinavians, he's thrived here in the UK and this familiarity has so often proven decisive in the Dunhill Links. Even 2019 winner Victor Perez was living in Scotland at the time.

Noren's record here includes third place a decade ago, 11th in 2016 and top-15s in each of his last two starts, and it would be wrong to assume he'd always arrived a better player than he is today. In fact there are parallels with 2012 as he climbed to 51st in the world rankings after his second top-three finish of the year, the other having come in the Scottish Open.

This time, Noren is 54th in the rankings so another high finish could seal his place in the majors next year, as it could a start in the DP World Tour Championship. Getting that in the bag now will certainly be the focus as he's set to return to the USA to get his PGA Tour campaign moving as he continues to balance life as a member of both circuits.

It's certainly true that his long-game hasn't been firing over there lately but he made a solid start to the new season nonetheless, finishing 36th in the Fortinet Championship, and it's just a handful of starts since he was second in the Barracuda having played there rather than hang around as an alternate here at St Andrews.

As it turned out, Noren would've got into the field for the Open so maybe there's an added motivational aspect at play, but the key messages relate to his class, his suitability to the courses and the format, and how often we see players return to Europe and contend having been ticking over on the far deeper PGA Tour.

Noren's record at Carnoustie in particular is worth calling out. He shot a bogey-free 64 in 2016, contended when 17th in the Open two years later, and has made two bogeys in his last 36 holes there in this event. With a best of 64 at the Old Course and 65 at Kingsbarns, he's answered every question this unique tournament can pose.

Both times we've seen him on the DP World Tour this year he's played well (30th in the Scottish Open, 15th after a slow start to the Scandinavian Mixed) and at the prices, he's by far the most appealing bet in the tournament.

Truth be told there's nobody else I'd want to chance towards the front of this market. Perhaps Louis Oosthuizen will step up but of all the LIV players he might be the one who has appeared most content to cruise round and top up the retirement fund, and while he's a winner at the Old Course he's not generally been a threat in this.

More Danish delight for Olesen?

As such the search expands to those at bigger prices and another Scandinavian, THORBJORN OLESEN.

• CLICK HERE to back Olesen with Sky Bet

Second behind Branden Grace here in 2012 when in the van throughout, Olesen returned three years later to win the biggest title of his career despite a final-round wobble. In the end he had a couple of shots to spare having built his week around a solid start at Carnoustie, as so many winners of this have done.

Although he's not been a factor since, two missed cuts were by narrow margins and he didn't play the event in 2018, when it came a week after the Ryder Cup. In 2019 he was suspended and last year's effort was his sixth missed cut in succession as he searched desperately for form.

That search ended finally at the Belfry back in May as he conjured a magical finish to win the British Masters to make it two wins in the UK, where he's been based for so long. With a top-10 finish in the Open to his name, Olesen is extremely comfortable under the conditions we'll have this week, and that's underlined further by an outstanding record at Doha and in the often-windy Middle East in General, as it is by his first European Tour win in Sicily.

Last week he was one of the top handful in the market in France, where his feast-or-famine course record was put to the test, and had he putted well he might've denied us that spectacular Sunday from Guido Migliozzi. Olesen was in fact the best player in the field from tee-to-green only to rank 73rd of 78 players with the putter, a rare mishap for a player who has relied on that club and who triumphed at the Belfry because of it.

Expect a return to something better than average and in that case, we might just need a little luck with the draw, and off the tee. It's probably not a coincidence that Olesen, wayward at times with driver, produced his best strokes-gained figures of the season at a course where driver is often left in the bag. He'll need it more here, and avoiding the occasional big miss will be vital to his chances.

We know he has the class, as a former Ryder Cup player who won a Rolex Series title that same year, and there's substance to his recent form which extends back to the middle of July. Only at Wentworth has he performed poorly, and Olesen almost always does so there. He looks a genuine player.

Confidence returning in time for Lewis

Such is the strength at the head of the market that we see big prices next to the names of very good players, and the only nagging worry I have in chancing a few of them is what happened in Italy two weeks ago. There, the entire top eight was made up of DP World Tour winners, six of them with PGA Tour cards. However, we come back to links golf, the likelihood of wind and rain, and a recent history of big-priced winners in this event.

Perhaps TOM LEWIS could add his name to the list having helped make the point I alluded to earlier about players returning from America and finding that things come much more easily to them.

• CLICK HERE to back Lewis with Sky Bet

Lewis endured a miserable Korn Ferry Tour campaign but has gone 13-71-12-16-50 back over here, contending in Denmark, sitting third at halfway in Italy, and even last week featuring close to the places until a difficult Sunday at a course which stifles him, one where he'd done absolutely nothing of note previously.

Having selected him at 150/1 for the Italian Open I felt a little hard done by in watching him suffer in round three, where he was thrown in with McIlroy and Fitzpatrick. It might sound like a dream draw but it's probably a nightmare one for a player still working on things and with confidence diminished, not least a quiet character like Lewis who hasn't always relished the spotlight.

He rallied on Sunday before a late wobble but it was soon clear how positive a performance it had been overall. Whereas in the Czech Republic and Denmark he'd relied on his putter, particularly in the latter event, in Rome he was the best iron player in an elite field. Then last week in France, he ranked ninth off the tee for his best driving display of the year, with his approach work (10th) still of a very high standard. This time, that putter let him down.

It's not uncommon for players with his profile to struggle to get everything to click but it could happen here. Lewis has three top-10 finishes in the event, including when 152nd on the Race to Dubai during a rotten 2013 campaign. He returns nine years later ranked 157th and this time with no winner's exemption, which means he's entering the final stretch with a clear goal in mind.

Fifth in 2019 when shooting 65-64 across the weekend, Lewis even played well here last year when in poor form, and he's scored at all three courses down the years. Carnoustie would nevertheless be the main worry along with how he goes about getting the putter heated up again, but over the past six weeks he's done everything well in bursts and smacks of a player who will soon make it count.

Playing here on an invite and currently without any sort of status for 2023, the uber-talented Lewis has to be worth another go.

Fergie time?

At a similar price, two-time winner EWEN FERGUSON has to be on any shortlist and with conditions more likely to suit him than Nicolai Hojgaard, I'm inclined to side with the Scot.

• CLICK HERE to back Ferguson with Sky Bet

Hojgaard put up a decent defence of his Italian Open title before making the weekend in Paris, where he was shackled off the tee and scored accordingly. He'll be able to open his shoulders again here and I think we'll probably see something from him before the year is out, but battling wind and rain on Friday might just expose him.

It could do the same to Ferguson, whose short-game has been the only real issue during successive missed cuts. However, they were at tough courses he'd never played before so I can give him the benefit of the doubt, especially as his putting has improved, and his work around the greens helped him to win number two in Northern Ireland.

Ferguson was in the mix throughout last year's renewal when still a Challenge Tour player and has since taken his game up a level or two, with his breakout victory in Qatar correlating nicely with many a past Dunhill Links champion – Grace, Olesen, Oliver Wilson, David Howell, Robert Karlsson among them.

Both that and his ISPS Handa World Invitational win showed him to be at his most effective under tricky conditions and so did his performance in the Made in HimmerLand, when cruelly denied by Wilson in another event which tends to offer Dunhill Links clues.

Ferguson won the Scottish Boys' near the sea at West Kilbride and the Boys Amateur Championship at Hoylake so links golf runs through his pedigree and as well as getting in the mix early in the Scottish Open this summer, he carded a second-round 61 next door at Fairmont St Andrews.

Winning an event like this would require another step up but he's in his comfort zone and recent form figures are nothing to worry about.

Compatriot Richie Ramsay remains really pleased with his long-game and with good reason. He's won by the sea already this year and is another 100/1 shot with a chance to hit the frame, but I prefer Finland's TAPIO PULKKANEN at about twice the price.

• CLICK HERE to back Pulkkanen with Sky Bet

Pulkkanen put in an astonishing display here in 2018, shooting 76 on day one at St Andrews to lie 109th, before rounds of 67, 64 and 69 secured fourth place and earned him his playing rights for the following season. The middle one of the three was the lowest score at Carnoustie by fully three shots that day and nobody bettered 66 there all week.

He came back and opened 65-68 in 2019, too, this time coming unstuck at Carnoustie, so there's ample evidence that he has what it takes to go well in the event and put his power to use at the Old Course.

Best of all, Pulkkanen returns playing some of the best golf of his career. Third place in the Czech Masters came at the course where he'd been second a year earlier, and he's followed it with a formline of 22-MC-23-30, the missed cut coming at Wentworth in a strange event, in elite company, and on a course not made for him.

Last week's 30th was his best performance by far in Paris and before that he'd hung around on the fringes of the places all week in Rome, so having shown he can adapt to all three courses he rates an interesting player at big odds.

Eddie Pepperell and Matt Wallace are two class acts at around the 66/1 mark for those who do want to be a little less speculative, while Wilco Nienaber fell into the Nicolai Hojgaard category as someone I'd have been more inclined to chance had the forecast been better.

Next then is a player who won one of the toughest editions of this tournament in 2018, LUCAS BJERREGAARD.

• CLICK HERE to back Bjerregaard with Sky Bet

Ever since he finished 27th on the PGA Tour in July, this formerly top-class prospect has looked to be heading in the right direction. Each of the four cuts he's missed since then have offered some kind of promise and so have the four he's made, not least when third at Celtic Manor.

Despite that effort, Bjerregaard is down at 153rd in the Race to Dubai so he needs a big finish soon if he's to secure his card. It's a familiar storyline at this time year and in Bjerregaard's favour is the fact he's been there and done it before, finishing runner-up in Portugal last November when almost out of time.

Significantly, that was the scene of his first European Tour win four years earlier, so where better to wrap up his playing rights for 2023 than in the event where he secured his second win four years ago?

Bjerregaard arrives on the back of 20th place in the Open de France, by far his best effort there in six starts, and with his iron play having improved almost beyond measure this summer. Solid around the greens and still a very good putter on his day, so much will depend on what happens to the odd stray tee shot which still creeps in from time to time.

Undoubtedly there are places across all three courses which could prove costly to visit, but we saw how vulnerable St Andrews can be to long driving during the Open, and having been on at the same sort of price in Italy I can't let him go unbacked here in Scotland.

Alex Fitzpatrick was a world-class amateur and Matt's little brother is starting to show what he can do as a professional, finishing 27th in Italy and 13th in France. That's rock-solid form by any measure and it's a little surprising to see him at 300/1, having hit his ball really well at Le Golf National.

It's probably too soon for the 23-year-old but he's a serious talent in the making and with almost €70,000 tucked away in the bank account following the last two weeks, he must be feeling good about things as he makes his debut in this event. McIlroy finished third in it a month after turning pro and there are others who defied a lack of experience here early on in their careers.

At the other end of the scale, Marc Warren and Robert Rock are two veterans who might feature. Both contended for the 2020 Scottish Open played in foul weather, and Warren's earlier victory in Austria had come in a deluge. Rock of course lost a play-off to Lowry at the Irish Open way back in 2009 and his links record over the years, including a top 10 in the Open at St Andrews, is solid.

Throwing another couple of darts at these two or the younger Fitzpatrick isn't without appeal, with the weather, the nature of the event and indeed links golf all adding welcome uncertainty.

Posted at 1835 BST on 26/09/22

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