In his final pre-tournament preview, Ben Coley takes a look at the three-ball and first-round leader markets for round one of the Masters.
Golf betting tips: The Masters round one
1pt Harman to beat Hatton & Niemann at 11/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Henley & Oosthuizen to win their three-balls at 4.66/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt e.w. Tommy Fleetwood to lead after R1 at 55/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Russell Henley to lead after R1 at 100/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Harman to beat Hatton & Niemann (1800)
You'd be brave to be backing Tyrrell Hatton at odds as short as 5/4 for just about any three-ball at Augusta. In six appearances he's only once cracked the top 40, his last round here was 80, and that's a score he'd shot once before.
Hatton has been competitive at times and could obviously be again because he's an extremely good player, but a missed cut in Texas and group-stage exit at the Match Play don't exactly inspire confidence. He's there to be taken on.
Joaquin Niemann backtracked after a strong start last year. He'd been among my selections then following a win at Riviera and I do believe he has the right sort of game for Augusta. However, he's yet to really show it, and he's been closer to last than first in his latest couple of starts on the LIV Golf circuit.
All of which makes BRIAN HARMAN look like a spot of value at anything upwards of 9/4. He's the one with the standout Augusta form among this trio and he's broken 70 three times in a dozen rounds.
Prior to the Match Play I'd have been too concerned about the overall state of his game and that does remain the nagging doubt, but he was excellent there. If Harman can build on that then he'll be very competitive in this group, where he's the one who is most at ease with the course.
Henley to beat Couples & Noren (1336 BST)
Fred Couples has dazzled around Augusta National many a time and he looks in a better place physically for his latest go, but 4/1 is plenty short enough for a three-ball with two really solid PGA Tour players.
That leaves RUSSELL HENLEY and Alex Noren in an effective head-to-head, and in terms of their course form and suitability, it's no contest. Henley, from Georgia, absolutely loves it here. So far Noren has not.
Henley missed the cut on his 2013 debut but has since made five from five, all of them ending in top-30 finishes. His worst round one score across six appearances is 73 and he boasts a dozen rounds of par or better.
His quality approach play and solid off-the-tee game have clearly married up well with Augusta and, having played well and been unfortunate to be eliminated in the group stage of the Match Play after a top-20 at Sawgrass, he arrives in form.
Noren finally showed something in Texas last week but continued to drive the ball poorly. Key though is his record at Augusta: eight rounds, seven of them over-par, a best of 72, and an average of more than 75.
Henley's average is over 2.5 shots lower despite a second-round 81 on debut. Since then he's been solid every time and more of that will do, for the three-ball bet at least.
Oosthuizen to beat Meronk & Kisner (1348)
LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN is, like so many LIV golfers, quite difficult to weigh up. But what we do know is that he was runner-up on his new tour a couple of starts ago and that, combined with a fine record in the Masters, is enough to sway me here.
Before last year's withdrawal, Oosthuizen had been on a run of consistent displays at Augusta, and he averages just over 72. Seven times he's shot par or better on Thursday. That sort of score would give him a really good chance of winning this three-ball.
Kevin Kisner's form has been miserable for a long time now. He's driving the ball short and inaccurately, didn't get far at the Match Play, and hasn't produced what you'd call competitive golf since his very first appearance of the year.
His Augusta record is similarly regressive so I rate Adrian Meronk the biggest threat to Oosthuizen. The Pole is making his debut but has the right kind of game for the course, especially with his short-game looking sharp. However, inexperience puts him at a disadvantage and, at the prices, the vote has to go to Oosthuizen.
Power to beat Watson & Fernandez de Oliveira (1448)
I won't waste much time here because bet365 and BoyleSports appear to be the only firms to have priced up this three-ball. I'm sure I remember a time when all groups were offered in this small-field major, but perhaps I misremember.
Anyway, those who can back Power at odds-against are advised to. He made an excellent debut here last year, has a good game for the course, has been playing well, and reports from practise suggest that's continued into this week.
With an amateur and a back-from-injury LIV player to beat, he looks a value favourite. Yes, Bubba Watson is a two-time Masters champion, which is helping to hold the price up. But he's not yet been competitive in three LIV Golf starts and I expect his lack of sharpness will be exposed.
First-round lead
A late start has generally been no barrier in the Masters, in fact it may be a positive, which is why I am drawn to TOMMY FLEETWOOD in the first-round leader market.
Out in the final group along with Tony Finau and Jordan Spieth, in-form Fleetwood, who has twice shot 66 here, looks a potential candidate to top the leaderboard.
Fleetwood has twice led The PLAYERS after the first round, did so at the BMW PGA Championship last year, and has a strong record of starting well in majors – in fact this is the only one in which he's yet to hit the frame.
Those two rounds of 66 both came later in the tournament and demonstrate his potential to make inroads on whoever has set the early target.
Perhaps that could be RUSSELL HENLEY, whose Augusta record I've already gone through.
Henley has four first-round leads in his last 60 starts, one of them coming in the US Open, and his game has come around just in time having followed 19th place in The PLAYERS with a strong performance in his Match Play group.
In six Augusta visits he's twice sat inside the top six after the first round and in some ways he reminds me of Charley Hoffman, who came here with a strong bank of Masters form back in 2017 and topped the leaderboard at 100/1.
Henley is that price with several firms and Paddy Power offer eight places. He's well worth a bet.
Oosthuizen and Power are also considered along with Sepp Straka, while those who've backed Gordon Sargent for top amateur might consider taking a chance at 150/1 given his obvious potential.
However with the weather set to play a part it's difficult to know exactly where in the draw to look, so I'll take one from each side and stick with the premise that Augusta experience is vital.
Posted at 0855 BST on 05/03/23
