Ian Richard has narrowed the Barracuda Championship down to four potential winners, and 12/1 chance Robert Streb is his pick of them ahead of the final round.
Recommended bets
1pt e.w. Robert Streb at 12/1 (1/4 1,2,3)
We have had eight renditions of the Barracuda Championship using the modified Stableford scoring system and we have had eight very different winners - well, seven really as J.J. Henry has won it twice. Last year youngster Collin Morikawa bucked the trend of more experienced professionals obliging, then we have a former major winner in Geoff Ogilvy and subsequent one in Gary Woodland, plus journeymen types like Stroud and Greg Chalmers, who probably wouldn't have picked themselves to win.
To add further complication into the mix this year we have moved to a different Jack Nicklaus-design, although we are still at high altitude, and the one thing we can maybe concentrate on is how players have won entering the final day with the unusual scoring system in place.
I reckon the winning score will be around the 40-point mark – a few below normal as we have one less par-five to go at compared to Montreux golf course, and scoring just doesn’t seem to be quite as low on the new course. In fact the actual scores of the four at the top reveal they are all 12-under par, underlining the vagaries of the scoring system while highlighting the point around this being tougher: in the past, 15- to 17-under would likely be needed at the 54-hole stage.
Branden Grace became the first costly withdrawal for punters on Saturday having to withdraw after testing positive for coronavirus when sitting in a tie for second - let's hope that’s the last time it happens though I wouldn’t be surprised if it wasn’t. It’s a great shame for Grace as it also means he misses out on next week's first belated major of the season.
Although we have changed course two of this week's protagonists were right up in contention last year in the shape of Troy Merritt and ROBERT STREB, who went on to finish second and third, and this year they are separated by Emiliano Grillo and Maverick McNealy.
With the lowest score so far this week being 14 points I am struggling to see the winner coming from outside that quartet with anyone below them having to score 14 points or better to reach what I think will be the winning mark. It is impossible to predict if any of the four will make an eagle but that will probably make the difference between winning and losing, so is worth keeping an eye on if betting in running, but on what we know it's Streb who looks the best value.
Merritt is seeking his third PGA tour win and interestingly his last two have come at the end of July or the beginning of August and he will certainly be buoyed by the fact that this week he got his PGA Championship invite courtesy of the withdrawal of Francesco Molinari. The one nagging doubt about him being a short-priced favourite is that he is one of the four players to score 14 points so far, in yesterday's round. The previous three have followed theirs up with tallies of two, four and zero points, underlining the old adage that it's difficult to back up a low round.
Sitting four points adrift of Merrit we have Grillo and McNealy, the former seeking his second tour win and the latter his first. The Argentinian is certainly in form having finished third at Twin Cities last week but he hasn’t really kicked on since his first win nearly five years ago and often gives the impression he is flaky under the cosh. At 7/1 there is certainly no margin for error and I can happily let him go unbacked.
McNealy will no doubt go on to win PGA Tour events but the closest he has been so far was fifth at Pebble Beach earlier this year and even then he was a full 10 shots behind the winner. The one thing he has in his favour this week is at least his scoring has been consistent with 10, 9 and 10 points in his three rounds to date, another round like that and I can see him being close to the winning score.
At 9/1 I certainly couldn’t put anyone off but taking such a short price I like to know a player can seal the deal on a Sunday first and he is yet to win as a professional.
Streb on the other hand has nothing to prove on that score having landed his PGA Tour win at the McGladrey Classic back in 2014, and scored twice at Korn Ferry Tour level.
Last year he stuck around the leaderboard on Sunday, eventually finishing third, which is what will be required today to hit the frame. His last win came at a course Nicklaus played a huge hand in revamping back in 2006, so he seems to have an affinity for his designs, and he did hit the ball well on his last start before coming here.
Though his scores are trending in the wrong direction (11, 9, 8), he did finish his round nicely on Sunday and at double-figure prices he looks the pick of the leading four candidates.
Posted at 0915 BST on 02/08/20
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
