European Tour: Euram Bank Open betting preview and tips from Ben Coley

Recommended bets

2pts e.w. Lorenzo Gagli at 20/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Pedro Figuieredo at 60/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Marcel Siem at 100/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Hurly Long at 200/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Julien Brun at 250/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

The most striking feature of the PGA Tour's return has been how difficult it has been for anyone outside golf's elite to muscle in and contend for titles. Daniel Berger might have been outside the world's top 100 before victory at Colonial, but his form in the spring had been outstanding, and his form in the past was enough to earn him a Presidents Cup place. Since then, all four winners have been either established at the top of the sport or, as in Collin Morikawa's case, rapidly completing that process. Strong fields have produced exactly what you would expect them to.

The return of the European Tour, hand-in-hand with the Challenge Tour, went somewhat differently. The field for last week's Austrian Open was stretched, rather than deep; there were a handful of excellent players, for this grade, and then all sorts of others. As such we got something predictable only in its messiness: those excellent players weren't at their best and yet weren't far away, and the top 10 had everything from a formerly classy champion to a 56-year-old veteran, a couple of Scottish youngsters with bright futures, and a German who turned professional, then reinstated his amateur status, and is now professional again.

Almost anything goes when fields look like the one we have for the Euram Bank Open, and once again there's just no need to be steaming into someone like Joost Luiten at prices from 5/1 to 13/2. The Dutchman had every chance last week and while he can be forgiven for not being at his best come the crunch, what with the time away from the course, he still ought to have done much better. Without stats it's hard to know why, but I'd speculate he continues to look less than convincing on the greens.

With Luiten opposable, 18-year-old phenom Joohyung Kim highly unlikely to take up his place in the field, and Adri Arnaus again taking on terrain which appears to undermine his powerhouse approach, another eclectic leaderboard is the only confident prediction here. Perhaps the one lesson we did learn should be applied on Sunday, though: class is class, and Marc Warren was just a little more comfortable than some younger opponents when it came to the crunch.

This week's course looks absolutely stunning, and it's again a shame we'll have to scour the internet for a local feed if we want to see it. No wonder Adamstal has been voted among the best in Europe: looking through images of this fiddly, undulating layout, perhaps Kim would in fact be wise to make the long trek from South Korea after all.

At 6,473 yards (caveat: the European Tour have played the odd rope-a-dope in the past), what's clear is that this is among the shortest courses you'll see in operation on any significant men's tour. But it's not necessarily a total pushover. Calum Hill won the Challenge Tour event here last summer in 18-under, but he was four clear; 12 months earlier, Darius van Driel shot 17-under to edge out David Law in a thriller. There will be low scores and it's harder than last week's, but danger does await if you're wild off the tee.

Going through interviews from both those events, and even rewinding to a breakthrough Challenge Tour win for Rafa Cabrera Bello more than a decade ago, and two things feature throughout. First and foremost, the undulations here are significant, and the walks from green to tee particularly taxing. Perhaps those following Warren's lead and carrying their own bag will regret it. Secondly, you have to drive the ball well. Everyone says so, and looking through the scorecard it does seem the biggest trouble spots await tee-shots.

All of it rather brings to mind Crans-sur-Sierre, the even more picturesque home of the European Masters, and that's partly why I'm willing to take a fairly short price about LORENZO GAGLI.

This Italian is a fairways-and-greens type who has been around for a while without winning much, but at 34 there's plenty of evidence to suggest he's in the form of his life. Prior to lockdown, finishes such as 10th in Oman and 12th in Qatar are miles clear of what most of these are capable of, with last summer's 14th in Scotland and second in Switzerland better still.

The latter came at Crans, where he was in a play-off which featured Rory McIlroy but was won by Sebastian Soderberg, and it confirms what we know about Gagli. He relies on an old-fashioned set of skills, and is only ever likely to be a factor on the European Tour at courses which are short, tight, and rewarding of those who don't seek to overpower them.

Like Crans, there are a couple of holes here which can be attacked with driver, but I suspect the winner will be someone who piles up chances and avoids disaster off the tee. There's every chance it could be Gagli, who is 31st in driving accuracy and an impressive fifth in strokes-gained approach so far this year.

His sole Challenge Tour win came at Muthaiga, an old-fashioned, undulating course in Nairobi, and his second place to Lee Slattery in Madrid was again at a course where those hitting fairways came to the fore. This place simply looks ideal for him, and if we turn the clock back all the way back to 2008, he did shoot a brace of 67s to be bang in the mix in a Challenge Tour event here before a disappointing weekend.

Gagli produced four solid rounds for 25th last week and can improve upon that to hit the frame in this weaker field. Beyond Luiten, he looks among the most likely winners and I think he's a perfectly fair price when you look at the calibre of player right behind him in the betting. Relative to this grade, he really does have a touch of class.

Although playing in Vienna last week should be seen as a positive, this is a very different course and I'm hopeful PEDRO FIGUEIREDO might again take to it as he emerges from lockdown.

Once highly-touted, the Portuguese hasn't quite made as much of his opportunities as I'd have expected, but throughout an uninspiring rookie campaign on the European Tour he dropped several big hints that he can at some stage complete the transition.

At the aforementioned European Masters in September, he led the field in strokes-gained approach and he was second a week later in Germany, followed by sixth at the KLM Open - this is a standard of approach play which should provide the foundations for a successful career at the highest level.

Clearly, there are some issues elsewhere in his game which have prevented him from taking full advantage, but that effort at Crans in particular stands out and he was at it again when third for approach shots on his last start in the spring.

I can't stress enough how much of a drop in grade this is, and with top-10 finishes from both starts at the course, he's cherry-picked his return to action. Perhaps rust or a cold putter will catch him out, but at 60/1 this proven Challenge Tour winner is worth chancing. He has bags of ability and that alone makes him stand out here.

Matthew Baldwin and Matt Ford are the sort of straight-hitting players who should go well again here, as might the diminutive Daan Huizing, but next on my list is a veteran who is up to following Warren's lead and ending his own victory drought.

MARCEL SIEM's career is actually pretty similar to that of the Scot, and there have been similar signs of promise over the last nine to 12 months - more so than last week's winner, in fact.

Back in the spring, Siem sat eighth, fifth and 16th after the first round of his final three events before the break, and these strong starts to me indicate a player who is working his way back to form but hasn't quite been able to see it through just yet.

Here in Austria, in a weak field, and with several months' more range work in the bag, I can see him doing so - especially after a solid, back-to-school 23rd last week, on what was his first look at Diamond Country Club.

He's making his debut here, too, but if it does come down to the driver, few are better placed. In fact, Siem ranked third among this field in strokes-gained off the tee last season, 10th in 2018, and for all the form and fitness issues he's had, that part of his game has continued to excel.

In two of his last three starts on the European Tour he has in fact ranked 10th or better in strokes-gained tee-to-green, and without wishing to labour the point this is a much lower level. Indeed it's lower still than last week, when he improved his position at the end of each round in an eye-catching comeback.

Should Siem build on that, he's entitled to be a factor here and it's also worth noting that he turns 40 on Wednesday. There are numerous examples of players hitting a milestone birthday and redoubling their efforts to make the most of what time they have left competing as a professional. This fiery German could well be the latest to up his game.

For all that my top three selections are proven in this sort of grade, it would clearly not be at all surprising were a potential star to emerge in the way that Sami Valimaki did in Oman earlier this year. There's just nothing to fear here, not even in the event of a Sunday two-ball with Arnaus or Luiten, and youngsters these days are generally ready to take their chances.

That's why Garrick Higgo is prominent in the market and why Thomas Rosenmuller should be considered, but if the latter is between 55 and 80/1 I can't for the life of me understand why HURLY LONG should be quoted at 200s, and he's worth risking.

The reason for the comparison is that Rosenmuller and Long are two of the brightest prospects in German golf, and their paths have been similar. The thing is, Long looks further along his: while he won the Pro Golf Tour's order of merit in 2019, Rosenmuller was down in 24th. And while Long has been dipping his toe into deeper waters, Rosenmuller has been free to make a splash on the PGT in the early months of 2020.

Clearly, both have immense potential, but those neat form figures of Rosenmuller (16-24-1-3-6-5) seem to obscure the fact that Long was a better amateur, and may well retain that advantage having been playing in much stronger events lately.

Of course, a discrepancy between two players never makes a bet, but I do like how Long played last week, a sharpener which may give him an edge on several - including his compatriot. I also like the fact he won in Austria on the Pro Golf Tour, courtesy of a final-round 60, and come the end of the campaign he was just ahead of Valimaki in taking the money list to add real substance to his form.

Since then, 33rd at European Tour Qualifying School (way ahead of Rosenmuller, by the way) was an excellent effort, and he was 30th at halfway and 32nd through 54 holes of the SA Open won by Branden Grace. Like so many, he's quickly learned what it takes and he looks to have the quality to contend for a tournament like this one, with fond memories of Austria and a strong showing last week to build on.

Believe it or not, the nature of this course earned Matteo Manassero a place on the shortlist, and having learned he beat Renato Paratore (15th last week as one of the favourites) by a shot in an event in Italy recently, he almost made the actual staking plan at 250/1.

The trouble is, those signs of life which pointed to Warren just are not there, not at tour-level, and he was last seen missing cuts on the Nordic Golf League. I hope these months away really have helped this popular, one-time teen prodigy find something to work with, but he has to go unbacked despite the enormous prices we now see next to his name.

JULIEN BRUN is also an enormous price, but he has provided some tangible clues that he's on the way back.

As an amateur, Brun was at the very top of the tree in France and in fact made the top 10 in the world. He was considered more promising than Victor Perez, even the excellent Gary Stal, and enjoyed a fine college career in the US.

Brun even managed to win a Challenge Tour event about as strong as this one before he'd turned professional, beating Eddie Pepperell, Mike Lorenzo Vera and Peter Uihlein to do it, and at 27 years old it's too soon to be writing him off completely.

Years of struggle across multiple tours have left Brun way down the Challenge Tour priority list, but a move to Prague last year and a change in coach seems to have sparked him into life. He's played four events on the PGT this year, winning one and never finishing worse than 16th, and was sixth in the money list when things ground to a halt.

As with Rosenmuller, this is form which needs context, but where Brun is concerned it doesn't appear to have been taken at all seriously by the layers, and that may be a mistake. Given the ability he has and what he has achieved with three wins in tour-level professional events, I would've thought this big step forward in the early months of the year might have seen them go on the defensive a little.

We can also call upon more recent evidence, as Brun won a Czech event (yes, I know) with a round of 65 before finishing third behind Antione Rozner and Gregory Havret in that strong French tournament I referenced last week. That it didn't point to a strong performance from Rozner shouldn't discourage us from considering that it might still amount to worthwhile form.

With Brun, it's just another piece of a bigger picture, one which suggests he's turned a corner. When you consider that he was 31st here in 2018, with form figures of MC-MC-MC-MC-63, and 30th a year later with form figures of MC-MC-MC-29-MC, never shooting worse than 70 and averaging 68.50, odds of 250/1 start to look extremely generous.

Posted at 1900 BST on 13/07/20

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