Golf betting tips: Gran Canaria Open
1.5pts e.w. Sam Horsfield at 8/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3)
0.5pt e.w. Guido Migliozzi at 28/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3)
2pts Jamie Donaldson to finish in the top 10 at 6/4 (General)
Guys, we have a crapshoot!
Ok, it may not boil down to luck as in the very essence of the word but when faced with a course offering six-under for fun, this will boil down to that one 20-footer, that lucky bounce, fortunate lie, whatever.
Meloneras is a spectacular course and it may that it's the level-par lovers that need to adjust their mindset but after three scores of 61 (nine-under) and half-a-dozen at a shot worse, this is a matter of who holes most on Sunday, and there is nothing the course can do about it, with no more than four holes playing over-par at any point.
Easy it may have looked but, having looked open to all sorts of nonsense, the later starters did seem to struggle with only Garrick Higgo moving forwards from the last six pairings. Whilst appearing obvious, it couldn't have been coincidence that the likes of Wil Besseling, Rhys Enoch and Robin Roussel dropped away having all lacked genuine experience in the mix, whilst renowned wind specialist Thorbjorn Olesen showed that the old maxim may still run true - it's hard to back up a very low round - with his level-par 70 being some way short of that Friday 61.
Back to the 21-year-old South African Higgo, who did this column a favour last week when rising from 10th to tied-fourth on Payday.
Last week's issue commented that he was 'long off the tee, he is brave with his putting and will win again' and damn that it might come so quickly. Progressive since making his way from the Big Easy tour and a win in his home Tour Championship, his win at the minor of the Portuguese events has been the catalyst for a surge to the world's top 100 and that tied-3rd at an island resort course in Cyprus gives further credence to the view that he have an advantage when the wind blows. Form figures of 4/mc/16/19 suggest he is peaking to strike and a well-played birdie on his final hole today has given him that handy advantage.
Having said all those positives though, he confirmed viewer's thoughts when commenting after today's round that he didn't play particularly well, his score of 65 (six birdies and an eagle) covering up some wild driving. I'm not sure he can be quite as lax tomorrow and whilst he can probably rely on his excellent putting to get him out of trouble on occasion, there are 13 players within four shots and he will be passed at some point during his round. The value lies elsewhere.
GUIDO MIGLIOZZI won't be going off at three figure prices for a while and after being out with the washing on Thursday night, has produced two thoroughly professional efforts to lie just four off the pace. Continuing to impress with his tee-to-green play, he is going to leave himself a chance on virtually every green and has a host of form that suggests he is another young player that will thrive when the afternoon winds arrive tomorrow.
Placed in coastal, gusty Oman, top-10 at Valderrama and a flying runner-up in Qatar after a closing best-of-Sunday 65, he also made ground at Portugal and Turkey and he is perfectly positioned to have yet another go at the top prize. Currently second in green-in-regulation and sixth for tee-to-green, this will all be about that afore-mentioned 'lucky' putt - the type that helped Antione Rozner snatch the Qatar Masters from the Italian's grasp.
Currently better than field-average on the other holes, he leads the par-3 stats so far this week and it would seem he is leaving a few out there despite rounds of 64 and 63. At prices north of 20/1 he is well worth the chance to launch himself up the board in similar fashion.
The two-time winner plays alongside JAMIE DONALDSON, yet another with a host of form in the wind. Top that with a runner-up in the SA Open and top-15 finishes at the low-scoring English Championship and Hero Open last year and his experience should grab another career top-10.
In fact, ignoring wins, it would be his 78th in 493 starts and sixth in his most recent 19 as he shows signs of the form which got him onto the Ryder Cup side seven years ago.
Given the amount of inexperience or lack of winning form with many of the top 14, the logical option seems to row along with Ben Coley's pre-event pick, SAM HORSFIELD.
Another confidently given out by the podcast, the 24-year-old Anglo-American has been telegraphing a victory for a couple of weeks now, with an eighth place finish in Kenya followed up with a closing third at the same track, and then a 15th in unsuitable Austria.
Sure, there are a few out there that can virtually match those figures but it's the impressive weekends that catch the eye - no worse than 69, and a 64 and 65 in just six outings - and having let an awful lot go today, he is expected to be back on track tomorrow. Numbers don't tell all and I felt he played a much better all-round game today, despite that five-under being four shots worse than the day before and that will help as the pressure mounts and the putts have to go in.
Twice winner in 18-under, Horsfield has little to fear from the majority that surround him and at 8/1 he is a tad bigger than I have him in a similar position to John Catlin just seven days ago.
- For more of Jason's analysis, listen to Lost Fore Words on iTunes and follow him on twitter
Posted at 2100 BST on 24/04/21
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