US PGA golf betting tips: Preview, odds and best bets for third round

Golf betting tips: PGA Championship round three

2pts Shane Lowry to beat Ian Poulter at 10/11 (General)

2pts Sungjae Im to beat Kevin Streelman at 19/20 (Unibet)

1pt double Lowry and Im at 2.56/1 (Unibet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Three summers ago, on Saturday at the US Open, Zach Johnson told reporters that the USGA had 'lost the course'. Shinnecock Hills produced unleashed hell that day, Phil Mickelson infamously hitting a moving ball as his frustration at the state of the greens boiled over. Such was the contrast between morning and afternoon conditions that both Tony Finau and Daniel Berger went from the cut line on Friday night to the final group on Sunday, overturning what had been an 11-shot deficit to the halfway leaders.

Kiawah Island hasn't been quite so demanding, and its paspalum grass — not to mention the fact that the USGA have no involvement — should ensure that whatever happens in today's third round, the leaderboard come the end of it has a broadly similar look. While every player still standing is within 10, closer than Finau and Berger were, wind from a new direction is set to be fairly consistent, and it will take an extraordinary round of golf for anyone out early to enter the final round with any sort of designs on the Wanamaker Trophy.

That feeling is underlined by a strong leaderboard, even if Dustin Johnson missed the cut, and Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm are among those in need of a miracle. Instead we have 50-year-old Phil Mickelson sharing the lead with habitual major contender Louis Oosthuizen, habitual major winner Brooks Koepka one behind, and Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama having moved within two.

It is possible to pick holes at least in the first three, with Mickelson prone to adding up to a dozen shots to his score from one day to the next, Oosthuizen so often flattering to deceive and yet to win a title of any description on US soil, and Koepka still having to prove that he can do this for four days. Many will expect him to, but it's just two months since he underwent surgery on a dislocated kneecap, and Kiawah Island is a pretty tough walk for all that it is relatively flat.

Matsuyama then might be the one for outright punters even though he's attempting to win his second major immediately after his first - a daunting task. Now having played his way into fourth, sitting two behind and free of the pressures which took years to overcome, he looks poised to capitalise should fears surrounding the front three come to fruition.

Matsuyama at 8/1 is preferred to Koepka at 4/1 and Oosthuizen at 6/1, but I'll be hoping Mickelson sticks around and at least lands the place money in the top former winner market. Advised at 28/1 with three places each-way, he leads Koepka by one, with five back to Harrington and Keegan Bradley, and another shot to Collin Morikawa. Anyone else and you might be inclined to start counting the place money, but we'll save that for at least another 30-odd holes.

Ultimately I want to sit and watch the third round unfold, hopeful that SHANE LOWRY could close the gap at least. The Irishman felt tired after a quick turnaround and did well to break par in round two, the putter warming up just a little, and he continues to relish this kind of challenge. Not yet without hope of winning, those not yet on should at least consider 7/2 for a top-10 finish from five behind.

For those who are already on each-way, a better way to play him today is simply to back Lowry to beat Ian Poulter in their two-ball (1750 BST). Poulter has largely got by on his short-game so far and while Lowry finished on the easier front-nine, making a positive move ahead of round three, Poulter dropped four shots across the final six holes on the other side of the course.

That won't be easy to recover from and while third here in 2012, his form currently is inferior to that of Lowry, a recent major champion who sounds quietly bullish. His vastly superior iron play should make all the difference and while Poulter did well to hide his frustration following a poor finish, Lowry set his sights on a weekend charge.

"I'm happy to be on level par," he said. "I'm five or six behind. I'm in a good place going into the weekend. I feel like my game is in a good place. I feel like I played great yesterday. I feel like I scored great today. So kind of if I can put those two together over the weekend, who knows what could happen."

It's tempting to chance Rasmus Hojgaard at the standout 3/1 to beat Jon Rahm, who went favourite after birdies at the 10th and 11th holes to start round two, but was disappointing thereafter and remains below his best. Hojgaard has given Rahm more than two strokes on the greens so far and sits alongside him on three-over, so there's probably value in that standout price for all the general 9/4 is harder to argue with.

PGA professional Brad Marek is 11/2 to beat Matt Wallace, again potentially generous given that they're level through two rounds, but I'll finish with less speculation and more simplicity and take 19/20 about SUNGJAE IM beating Kevin Streelman (1900 BST).

The latter is in decent form and has been solid through the bag so far, but in his 26th major still seeks his first top-10 finish. At some stage over the weekend I expect the likeable 42-year-old to struggle whereas Im looks like potentially the biggest threat to the front four along with Bryson DeChambeau.

A messy missed cut last time and a disappointing Augusta performance took Im off the radar but he's bounced back with two really tidy rounds, leaving room for improvement in his short-game while striking his irons particularly well. That's the department which has held him back a little at times this season, but is undeniably his strength when firing on all cylinders.

At 23rd in the world he's 41 places ahead of his veteran playing partner and I'm just a little surprised to see 4/5 and 19/20 widely available. Matsuyama is shorter to beat a better player in Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Paul Casey is shorter to beat Richy Werenski, and Koepka is shorter to beat Branden Grace.

Im looks entitled to a little more respect as a world-class operator, who thrived under similar conditions at Royal Melbourne and won his sole PGA Tour title in six-under par at a windy PGA National, and while 28/1 in the outright market is tempting, a shade of odds-on to outclass Streelman here looks unmissable.

Posted at 0800 BST on 22/05/21

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