Ben Coley takes a look at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which is fascinatingly poised through 54 holes.
Recommended bets
2pt double Day and An to win their two-balls at 2.06/1
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Rory McIlroy stormed into contention on day three of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where Henrik Stenson holds on to a slender lead ahead of what promises to be a thrilling final round.
McIlroy's closing birdie put the seal on an excellent 67 which sees him bang in the mix for the third time this year, but first time in the US since last August. Indeed Firestone, where he was left for dead by Hideki Matsuyama, is the only stateside tournament since the 2017 renewal of this one where McIlroy has been inside the top 10 through 54 holes.
Stenson remains the man to catch on 12-under, two clear of McIlroy and with Bryson DeChambeau separating the pair, but he knows there's a heck of a lot of work to do if he's to finally get his hands on this trophy. The Swede was second in 2015 and third a year later, both times failing to break 70 on Sunday. He'll surely need to do so this time.
Leaderboard
-12 Henrik Stenson
-11 Bryson DeChambeau
-10 Rory McIlroy
-9 Justin Rose, Ryan Moore
-8 Rickie Fowler, Charley Hoffman, Talor Gooch, Byeong Hun An
-7 Tiger Woods, Bud Cauley, Grayson Murray, Patrick Reed
For much of Saturday, pre-tournament selection Rickie Fowler looked set to offer the strongest resistance to the leader. Birdies at holes 10, 12 and 13 had the American tied with Stenson and he was back within one after another at the par-five 16th, before disaster struck. Fowler bogeyed 17 when his approach came up just short of the green, before a poor approach to the last resulted in a plugged lie and two further dropped shots.
From four behind, Fowler remains capable of a run but can afford no more mistakes, and it's been disconcerting to hear him talk about how uncomfortable he feels over the ball at times. It's bizarre, actually, as his approach shots had singularly been responsible for his position on the leaderboard, before ultimately proving his downfall in round three. It will be a surprise if he's able to lay those ghosts to rest quickly enough to win here and the hope is he does enough for a place.
With Justin Rose and Tiger Woods three- and five-back respectively and proven winners Ryan Moore, Charley Hoffman and Patrick Reed all within shouting distance, the message is that there's far more to this tournament than Stenson and McIlroy, who take up over 50 per cent of the book, yet neither looks especially poorly priced.
Stenson's record with the lead is very good. On the 19 occasions he's held a clear advantage, as he does here, he's gone on to win 12 and the two most recent examples are that stunning 64 to win the Open at Troon, before an outstanding 63 to take the Wyndham Championship. Surely, the former played a part in the latter and he'll call upon both experiences here.
What's particularly taking about his record is that Stenson has never failed spectacularly, which should mean those in behind are made to work very hard to overhaul him. In 18 of those 19 instances, he's finished first or second (third in the other) and that reliability makes for some interesting options in the dual forecast market - i.e. to finish first and second in any order.
I am never one to underestimate McIlroy, but he was disappointing in both Abu Dhabi and Dubai when in position to win and there has to be some chance that he comes unstuck again here. McIlroy has spoken of how shortening the swing and freeing up his mind on the greens have been key to this improved form; his all-out attacking style places both under threat if things don't go to plan early, although two par-fives in the first six holes certainly help his cause.
Ultimately, though, McIlroy's strength in the betting encourages us to search elsewhere and I like the look of Stenson and Rose to fill the first two positions at around the 17/2 mark with Sky Bet. Rose was excellent alongside Woods on Saturday and will relish playing with McIlroy tonight. He's the most reliable player on this leaderboard at present and can be fancied to continue to improve as he has done each day so far.
Personally, that's not a price I can take and a lack of market competition means I won't advise a bet, but to those looking for an interest that record of Stenson should be considered key to any final-round wager. Either get on board the Swede at odds-against - a strike rate of over 60 per cent from this position tells you 7/4 is a good price - or hunt down a dual forecast market and include him in your selection.
Looking further afield, two firms (Sky Bet and Betfred) offer a top-20 finish market and Zach Johnson looks a fair bet at 11/10. He's 18th at the moment, albeit in a big tie, and can threaten the top 10 if his putter behaves. It didn't on Saturday, but there were positives over the first two rounds just as there had been at the Valspar, so on balance it's reasonable to expect a return to positive figures. That would likely see this bet land.
Finally, consider a double on Jason Day and Byeong Hun An to win their respective two-balls. Day is paired with Austin Cook, both having burst through the field yesterday, but it's the Australian who looks by far the more likely to continue that forward move today. The accurate Cook didn't miss a shot on Saturday but hasn't been setting the world alight of late, whereas Day continues to look close to his old self.
An, meanwhile, couldn't buy a putt and that may still be an issue, but I like the idea that he'll be revved up to face Grayson Murray, with whom he engaged in something of a twitter spat last year. An is a better player than Murray, his form has been stronger, and he's by far the more likely to produce today whether that added motivation proves a factor or not. Prices of around 2/1 the double make plenty of appeal.
Posted at 0920 GMT on 18/03/18.
