European Tour: Italian Open golf betting preview and tips from Ben Coley

Recommended bets

2pts e.w. Adri Arnaus at 33/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1.5pts e.w. Wilco Nienaber at 33/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Joachim B. Hansen at 55/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Thorbjorn Olesen at 55/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Laurie Canter at 66/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Adrien Saddier at 80/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

Like the Irish Open before it, this week's Italian Open is among the events to have been hit hardest in this monotonously cruel year. With the Ryder Cup being staged in Rome in 2023, and Francesco Molinari winning the Claret Jug in 2018, Italian golf has been firmly on the rise, its trajectory reflected in the honour of hosting a coveted Rolex Series event. And it will rise again. For now, though, we are where we've been all summer: where we are.

This week, that translates to a hotel complex within a three-wood of Gardagolf, which hosted the 2018 Italian Open where Molinari was roared to second place on the heels of his Wentworth takedown of Rory McIlroy and co. Even then, it would've been hard to forecast what was to come; within a month he was a PGA Tour winner, within two he'd won the Open, and within four he'd made history at the Ryder Cup.

Now based in California, Molinari junior is not in the field, but there are a clutch of Italian hopefuls - including senior - lining up at Chervo Golf Club. Just how many of them have experience of the course, perhaps we'll find out, but I would wager not many. This is a tourist destination and doubtless a pristine one at that, but the course itself appears unremarkable: flat, fairly long, made trickier by the odd pond or lake, but the sort that shouldn't prove especially troubling for what's a moderate field.

Heading the betting is Matt Wallace, who was a combination of disappointing and unfortunate at the Scottish Championship, where he'd established a clear lead through 54 holes. The Englishman still boasts an excellent record when in contention - he's never truly faltered, and lost to a stunning round from Adrian Otaegui - yet he sets high standards, and takes perceived failure hard. Unlike Aaron Rai, whose perspective enabled him to chase disappointment with the biggest win of his career, there must be a risk that Wallace isn't ready to go again.

That leaves Martin Kaymer and Victor Perez as viable candidates in a field which is heavy at the top. The latter rediscovered his long-game in pushing Tyrrell Hatton the distance at Wentworth and is surely the most likely winner of the event. In contrast, Kaymer - whose list of missed opportunities includes this back in 2015 - is hard to support at 12/1. Double it and he'd be the bet at a course he'll like, but at the odds he surely must be left alone.

It's been a challenge to work out just how new or returning venues will play this summer, but Chervo seems straightforward enough. There are no genuinely short par-fours (nothing under 400 yards on the advised scorecard) on this 7,434-yard par 72, a mix of Yellow and Red courses at the complex. The four par-fives look reachable, but two of them involve water close to the greens and shorter hitters will likely opt to lay-up. It looks a course which offers opportunities to those with a little extra in the locker.

That colours my staking plan and so does course designer Kurt Rossknecht, who is also responsible for Bad Griesbach (2015 and 2016 European Open, 2017 PL Match Play), Eichenried (odd-year renewals of the BMW International Open) and Sempachersee, home of the Swiss Challenge. All three could be be useful in some regard, particularly the latter which looks in some ways similar.

All of that leads to Richard Bland, if truth be told. He was runner-up at Eichenried when last he played it, has two top-10 finishes from two stroke play starts at Bad Griesbach, and was second at Sempachersee on his only start there last year. That's a pretty compelling form book if you do buy into the course designer angle, but there's a risk of overplaying it and, more importantly, he's not one I want to back at 80/1 after a missed cut.

Instead, it could pay to follow the money and side with the mighty talent that is ADRI ARNAUS.

This Spanish sensation was a star rookie last year, finishing runner-up in Kenya and the Czech Republic as well as at home in Spain, and the form of all three tournaments reads well given the calibre of their respective champions.

A move to Dubai over Christmas looked to have set him up nicely for a breakthrough 2020 - he was third in the Dubai Desert Classic weeks after getting the keys to his new apartment - but he seemingly struggled more than most through lockdown, perhaps not putting in the hard yards which some others did.

Now though he looks ready to kick on, after fading from a top-five position over the weekend at Wentworth where, for the third event in succession, his iron play was outstanding only for his short-game to let him down. At least there were good signs on the greens, where he holed his share early on and recorded a positive strokes-gained figure for just the second time this year, and he should find he's scrambling less often here.

Arnaus is creating chances which could result in a breakthrough performance any week, and a return to Italy - where he won twice as an amateur on the Alps Tour - could make the difference, along with a drop in class of course. Wallace actually helps strengthen this argument, as he was the 54-hole leader of this event in 2017, less than two years on from his graduation as a multiple Alps Tour winner, including in Italy.

Fourth on his sole start at Sempachersee, Arnaus has a lot in his favour and, having made seven cuts in eight since the restart, he seems sure to play well. It will boil down to whether his short-game holds up and that's a risk I'm willing to take, given that he's among the brightest prospects in this field. Perhaps we'll have back-to-back Spanish winners.

At only slightly shorter in the betting, Jordan Smith and Matthias Schwab also make some appeal. Smith has an excellent record in the event, one built in stronger company, and is playing really well. The trouble is he looks even shakier than Arnaus on the greens and there's also a small concern around travelling again, as he withdrew in Spain on his first departure from the UK earlier this summer, citing mental struggles.

Schwab would probably have made the staking plan after another strong hint at Wentworth, but he sounded downbeat about his game there and that may explain why things spiralled out of control during the third round. That says he's still not where he needs to be and his third place on the PGA Tour is the only really bright spot in a difficult summer, perhaps hindered by his practice facilities back home in Austria.

For now at least, I'll move to a few at slightly bigger prices, starting with Danish duo JB HANSEN and THORBJORN OLESEN.

Hansen is a player I've always liked and, having recently turned 30, it's time he completed the step up from multiple Challenge Tour winner to consistent feature towards the top of European Tour leaderboards.

Last time out he was in the final group at Wentworth, an experience sure to serve him really well, and a top-10 finish there was another good step forward having played well in three of his previous four starts. The only exception came in the Scottish Open, where he was on the wrong side of a four-shot draw bias - there's no hesitation in drawing a line through it.

Otherwise his golf has been good, notably from tee-to-green, and three times this summer he's registered a top-10 ranking in strokes-gained approach. Throw in the fact he's putting well and that his previously iffy short-game has been reliably solid for some time, and it's not hard to work out why he's started to string rounds and results together.

Last October he sat second at halfway in the Italian Open - remember, a Rolex Series event at the time - and having been fourth at the start of that month, he rattled off a late-season surge which may again be forthcoming.

As for those flourishes of course-designer links, Hansen has them, only slightly hidden. He was 20th at Eichenried last summer, a performance which goes up in stature when you consider he was missing cuts everywhere else, and as for Sempachersee he actually holds a share of the course record for all he didn't really contend there.

A week off following Wentworth looks like a wise move, and he can take another step up the ladder.

Olesen meanwhile looks to be getting a bit more comfortable, having avoided the media glare albeit thanks to some fairly modest golf since his suspension from the Tour was temporarily lifted. We can see as much by the fact he only recently started posting on social media again, and he also has some new sponsors as he seeks to get back on track.

There's no place better for him to really make it all about the golf again than Italy, scene of his first victory at this level in the Sicily Open, and his most significant - the Rolex Series win just down the road at Gardagolf, which effectively earned him a place on Thomas Bjorn's Ryder Cup side.

Having also been runner-up twice in Italy it's always been kind to him, and if we dig around for those Sempachersee links he was the halfway and 54-hole leader there back in 2010, his one and only visit to date. There's a bit of Eichenried promise, too, as his best-of-the-day 65 last summer earned him a share of 10th place.

In terms of recent form, signs are less encouraging at first glance, but 27th at Wentworth was perhaps significant. Olesen had played there eight times previously, missing six cuts and never finishing higher than 54th. He'd played 20 rounds, and only four were under par. Now, he's doubled that tally having broken par every day a fortnight ago, and in the process left his previous best well behind.

He'll be all too aware of how poorly he's played in the Tour's flagship event and should therefore take lots of positives from it ahead of a return to what could be his favourite European Tour destination outside of his native Denmark.

And while it would be preferable to see some more robust form, Olesen's wins suggest otherwise. He'd been in terrible shape prior to the Italian Open, his results read MC-MC-50-MC-50-MC before winning in Turkey in 2016, he shot 70-75 to miss the cut and then won the Dunhill Links at a canter, and won in Perth having managed just two top-10 finishes and nothing better than seventh among his previous 20 starts.

That Sicily breakthrough in 2012 came after a really patchy start to the year and a modest MC-35 fortnight beforehand, and even at Challenge Tour level - where stringing together top-20s ought not to have been a problem - his sole success came after a run of 21-MC-31.

In other words, he can pop up out of nowhere and I would view six cuts made in eight starts, without ever really looking like getting in the mix, as a positive. At 50/1 or thereabouts, he's well worth all the attached risks.

Away from The Rossknecht Angle, which is there if you're starting up a prog-rock band and want a name, I did wonder if the Portugal Masters and some of those mid-summer shootouts in the UK might prove a decent guide.

Portugal played tougher this year but nevertheless remains a risk-reward course where aggressive golf is necessary, and that was true of tournaments at Hanbury Manor and Forest of Arden. Perhaps these, more so than recent tournaments in Scotland and Northern Ireland, are the template.

With that in mind and at the same price he was when runner-up in Portugal, I'm keen to stick with LAURIE CANTER.

A big-hitter who has driven the ball as well as just about anyone all summer long, I don't think the market has got anywhere close to catching up with this supremely talented player. Had he won in Portugal - and he did very little wrong in chasing home George Coetzee - I wouldn't have been surprised to see him follow the lead of Sam Horsfield and John Catlin and win again, and he's a player to keep on the right side of.

Key is to back him when there's genuine reward for giving it a rip and attacking flags versus say the more tactical requirements in Northern Ireland, where he therefore did really well to finish 14th. His only other subsequent start came under the links-like conditions of the Scottish Open, and Canter played with Hansen on the bad side of the draw in the very worst of the weather.

Forgive that and there's so much to like, and it's easier to do so when you consider he placed in the Wales Open just days after missing the cut at the same course in the Celtic Classic. He has a little bit of the Sempachersee form having played well there for a while last year, and after a last-minute invite to the Rolex event at Gardagolf he opened with a brilliant round of 63 en route to a solid share of 36th a couple of years back.

Canter is more than capable of winning in this company, a wide and fairly straightforward resort course should suit, and he can make mincemeat of the par-fives on his way to another high finish.

Wil Besseling is another relatively late bloomer who ought to have the required skills, but he has less upside than Canter and is overlooked at the odds, while Marcus Armitage hasn't really managed to string performances together as yet, which is why ADRIEN SADDIER takes the penultimate spot on the list.

In contrast to Armitage, Saddier does tend to roll with it once he's produced a good week - which is exactly what he did in Scotland when getting amongst the Englishmen fighting for places and settling for sixth. That was an excellent effort and the Frenchman should be more at home in Italy, where temperatures will be around 10 degrees higher for all there's some rain in the forecast.

Returning to his ability to maintain momentum, Saddier was 12th in Qatar in March having placed in Oman the previous week, and if you dig through his profile that's a common theme. He's even managed it when switching tours, having followed a play-off defeat on the Challenge Tour with an excellent tie for 16th in the Open de France back in 2017.

A year earlier he followed his breakthrough second-tier win with another strong performance and that all suggests he's worth sticking with after such an encouraging week in Scotland where, once again, his long-game really impressed.

Although not quite as long as Canter and Arnaus, Saddier is pound-for-pound one of the biggest hitters in the field, and as an extra little nugget he was second in the Italian Amateur a decade ago. Tenuous, possibly, but his biggest amateur win came in Switzerland, where he went on to lose a play-off on the Challenge Tour later in his career.

Others to mention include former winner Rikard Karlberg, who has all those course designer links and some strong recent form. For those looking for one at three-figures, don't totally dismiss the idea of another big step forward from Matteo Manassero, who plays out of Gardagolf. Bryce Easton is playing well for all we've lost those ties with Scotland and Sebastian Garcia-Rodriguez is inconsistent but played well in Portugal as he had at Forest of Arden.

However, I keep returning to WILCO NIENABER and have concluded he's worth siding with at anything 25/1 or bigger.

This absurdly talented South African is hard to price because he's yet to win a tournament and hasn't had many chances at a lower level than this one. Had he spent more time playing on the Sunshine and Challenge Tours, though, the likelihood is by now he'd have some silverware in the locker.

Instead he's been fast-tracked to strong tournaments, such as the Portugal Masters where he was the same price despite Tommy Fleetwood and Coetzee making for such a strong front end of the market. Nienaber faded from third place through 36 holes to 14th there, but again showed how much more he has to give.

Prior to Portugal he'd placed in the English Championship and at Valderrama, and on a long course where his remarkable power should unlock plenty of birdie and eagle chances, he looks to have a lot in his favour here - with the rain that is forecast very much included in that assessment.

Making the cut on a fiddly, fairways-first course in Northern Ireland was another step forward and he simply looks like he'll be world-class within a couple of years. That's why he's entitled to have leapt up the betting in such a short space of time, and why it could still pay to follow him under the right circumstances.

Posted at 2000 BST on 19/10/20

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